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The Limbo Bar thing with global gov't. bond yields with chart link.
I've posted this in the past, but worth another look for those who don't follow the bond arena. Knowing some folks here observe these pricing actions. Global gov't. treasury yields, real time (page does update). Also, lots of other info data at the top of the page tabs.
Investors avoiding risk on weak global GDP outlook: Gundlach By Jennifer Ablan June 10, 2016 The yield on the U.S. Treasury note plunged to 1.633 percent, its lowest since February 11, on Friday.
"If the 10-year Treasury note's yield breaks below the three-year resistance, then it is a big game changer," Gundlach said. He said he did not think it would happen on Friday but could do so in coming weeks.
Please join us for a live webcast titled "Timing and Strategy" hosted by:
Jeffrey Gundlach
Mr. Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).
Market Commentary OTCRX: Fact Sheet June 8, 2016 OTTER CREEK LONG/SHORT OPPORTUNITY fund The S&P 500 currently maintains an 18x multiple on 2016 estimated earnings – approximately 3 multiple points above its historical average. Notably, S&P earnings expectations for the second quarter of 2016 are no higher than reported earnings in the second quarter of 2011. Despite no earnings growth over the last five years, the S&P 500 is approximately 50% higher than it was in the 2nd quarter of 2011. From a global perspective, $10.4 trillion of sovereign debt now trades with a negative yield. This is up from $9 trillion at the end of April and $3 trillion at the beginning of 2016. In our opinion, central bank liquidity and the chase for yield are driving global financial asset prices to elevated levels. The equity markets’ appreciation of approximately 16% from the February lows has taken many (including us) (-3.58 since Feb11th ) by surprise. Recession fears earlier in the year. https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:OTCRX&ei=FQ5bV6jgIcPhmAGs7ICYDg have subsided as the credit markets have healed, manufacturing in the US appears to have stabilized, and the consumer has remained resilient. Going forward, the market will have to face a Fed that we believe wants to normalize interest rates. The path to normalization is murky at best. In addition, growth in the monetary base has effectively vanished – typically not a positive sign for returns considering its high correlation to the market. Also, profit margins remain at historical highs for many companies as profitability has been aided by anemic wage inflation and input cost deflation - both of these drivers appear to be turning into real margin headwinds as we look out over the next 6-12 months. We are focused on finding shorts that face underappreciated margin pressure going forward. We did not add any significant new long positions in the month, but continue to find new short opportunities as the market continues its complacent grind higher. As we enter June, we have just over 20% of the Fund in cash. We acknowledge this is a high level of cash, but we prefer to be patient in deploying capital. http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf
Comments
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/10/bill-gross-10-trillion-negative-yield-supernova-will-explode.html
Investors avoiding risk on weak global GDP outlook: Gundlach
By Jennifer Ablan
June 10, 2016
The yield on the U.S. Treasury note plunged to 1.633 percent, its lowest since February 11, on Friday.
"If the 10-year Treasury note's yield breaks below the three-year resistance, then it is a big game changer," Gundlach said. He said he did not think it would happen on Friday but could do so in coming weeks.
Copper is "almost on the 12-month low, the global economy must be weak and stocks look scary," Gundlach said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN0YW1WA
"Timing and Strategy"
Please join us for a live webcast titled "Timing and Strategy" hosted by:
Jeffrey Gundlach
Mr. Gundlach will be discussing the economy, the markets and his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX/DLTNX).
Tuesday, June 14, 2016 1:15 pm PT/4:15 pm ET/ 3:15 CT
Click Here to Register
https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085758
Market Commentary OTCRX: Fact Sheet June 8, 2016
OTTER CREEK LONG/SHORT OPPORTUNITY fund
The S&P 500 currently maintains an 18x multiple on 2016
estimated earnings – approximately 3 multiple points above its historical average. Notably, S&P earnings expectations for the second quarter of 2016 are no
higher than reported earnings in the second quarter of 2011. Despite no earnings growth over the last five years, the S&P 500 is approximately 50% higher than
it was in the 2nd quarter of 2011. From a global perspective, $10.4 trillion of sovereign debt now trades with a negative yield. This is up from $9 trillion at the
end of April and $3 trillion at the beginning of 2016. In our opinion, central bank liquidity and the chase for yield are driving global financial asset prices to
elevated levels.
The equity markets’ appreciation of approximately 16% from the February lows has taken many (including us) (-3.58 since Feb11th ) by surprise. Recession fears earlier in the year. https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:OTCRX&ei=FQ5bV6jgIcPhmAGs7ICYDg
have subsided as the credit markets have healed, manufacturing in the US appears to have stabilized, and the consumer has remained resilient.
Going forward, the market will have to face a Fed that we believe wants to normalize interest rates. The path to normalization is murky at best. In addition,
growth in the monetary base has effectively vanished – typically not a positive sign for returns considering its high correlation to the market. Also, profit margins
remain at historical highs for many companies as profitability has been aided by anemic wage inflation and input cost deflation - both of these drivers appear to
be turning into real margin headwinds as we look out over the next 6-12 months. We are focused on finding shorts that face underappreciated margin pressure
going forward.
We did not add any significant new long positions in the month, but continue to find new short opportunities as the market continues its complacent grind higher.
As we enter June, we have just over 20% of the Fund in cash. We acknowledge this is a high level of cash, but we prefer to be patient in deploying capital.
http://www.ottercreekfunds.com/media/pdfs/OCL_Factsheet.pdf