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There's Always A Bull Market In Fearmongering

TedTed
in Fund Discussions
FYI: Volatility has declined very sharply, so quite naturally, pundits suggest that investors are complacent and conditions are ripe for a nasty surprise. Such warnings deserve harsh criticism.

First, volatility should be down, given the performance of the economy and markets. Second, focusing on volatility encourages short-term thinking, which is extremely harmful to investors trying to achieve their long term goals. Third, it is entirely useless to warn against a potential market decline when the warning is provided without any kind of time framework.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-21/there-s-always-a-bull-market-in-fearmongering

Comments

  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    edited March 2017
    Just like some actors in Hollywood have a niche. Some people only act as Italian gangsters. People crave it. Similarly I think we have celebrities with "contrarian" thinking who carve out a niche to make money.

    Wouldn't be first time someone thinks one thing, but says another. For some, it's a matter of what sells to earn their livelihood. If you confirm with the norm, hard to get noticed as an "expert". Do something controversial and it can resurrect your career. This stereotype only gets re-enforced every time it happens. Think Sharon Stone...

    I am wondering if there's anyone who is a perma-bull who is still remembered (fondly or otherwise). That's not controversial.
  • beebee
    edited March 2017
    El-Erian, who at one time was with Pimco and is now with Allianz, strikes me as one such fear monger. He gets a fair amount of air time and is usually bummed out about something or other.
  • LewisBraham
    To the contrary--there's always a bull market in boosterism. Indeed, you could argue that certain unnamed TV networks exist solely for that purpose. Occasionally, they trot out someone like El-Erian to wring his hands, but that's merely a side show to the constant pounding the table to buy more, more, more stocks, so much so that a ticker stream constantly runs along the bottom of the screen beneath the humans to encourage you to buy specific ones much like a vendor in a souk displaying his wares. You could buy this one or this one or this one. See.
  • TedTed
    @Lewis: Let me guess ! CNBC ?
    Regards,
    Ted
  • MJG
    Hi Guys,

    Perma-Bears and Perma-Bulls have always existed especially if minor exceptions are allowed in the definition of these groups.

    Even historic Perma-Bears such as Joe Granville and Howard Ruff occasionally admitted a short positive market perspective. Today, Nourial Roubini, Doctor Doom, practices that discipline. Over any timeframe that extends beyond 10 years, their negative perspectives haven't survived the real world test. That's why we invest in the stock market.

    VintageFreak asked if we could identify any Perma-Bulls. Again, using a loosened definition of Perma-Bulls that permits infrequent exceptions, I suggest the buy-and.-hold advocates might be included in that grouping. Guys like John Bogle would be good candidates for that sobriquet. The buy-and-hold it clan have a host of advocates in the academic community.

    Paul Merriman summarizes much of their buy and forget it investment strategy. Here is a Link to one of his many papers that address this simple strategy:

    http://paulmerriman.com/ultimate-buy-hold-strategy-2016/

    Some very illuminating comments have been contributed to this topic. Thank you all.

    Best Wishes
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