Joblees Claims Continue To Trend Lower

Ted

FYI: This week’s Initial Jobless Claims number came in at 232,000, which was the lowest print seen since the end of February (almost six months ago). As shown in the chart below, that makes it the second-lowest print of the current recovery and second-lowest since the 1970s despite huge expansion in population, labor force, and employment since then. Claims have been almost shockingly consistent in their declines for the last 6 years, with a nearly straight line down on the chart despite occasional short spikes higher.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/jobless-claims-continue-to-trend-lower/

Crash

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. How many AREN'T being counted? It's not even counted the same way it used to be. So the numbers don't measure what they used to measure.

johnN

Must be trumpees rampage effects

davidrmoran

@Crash,
Can't tell if you are genuinely curious about the answer, but this might be of interest, from a year and a half ago:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/

Old_Joe

From David's link:

"But if there are really hundreds of thousands or even millions of willing workers just waiting to get back into the labor market, that means there is room for job growth to continue without driving up inflation."

If that was true (written some 18 months ago), it could certainly help explain the current lack of inflation (at least as measured by the government, which is another subject entirely), and consequent befuddlement at the Fed.

hank

Scaramucci, Priebus and Bannon are all looking for work. Not sure what kind of jobs they'd be suited for, however.

Good article from David. Geez - Some prices are depressed, which accounts for some of that reported low inflation. But try flying anywhere, booking a nice hotel room or renting a car. Appear to be two very different economies operating in this country.

My guess: In the case of travel that's something more likely to be indulged in by the relatively affluent. Due to Fed-induced liquidity, high stock and bond prices and easy credit at low interest rates (for those with 800+ scores), the types of things these people tend to spend on have been bid up disproportionately. However, in the case of very basic necessities that everyone tends to buy (food, clothing and fuel) inflation has been more muted.

Like I said, just a guess (but might explain some of the discrepancy between govt.'s inflation figures and what many of us feel.)

Crash

davidrmoran said:

@Crash,
Can't tell if you are genuinely curious about the answer, but this might be of interest, from a year and a half ago:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/

Good article. I'm just starting to take monthly SS checks, myself, at age 63. Wifey still works. Small old-fashioned defined benefit plan pension, too, which offers a tiny bit more each year. We're doing fine. But 3 or 4 years ago, I would have preferred to be working. My conclusion regarding my lack of success finding ANYTHING is that employers don't want intelligent thinkers. They want drones who are trained to push the right buttons.