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Actually, if you assume that the prize won't get split among multiple winners - a bad assumption but one that Forbes apparently makes - then the odds are excellent. $2 for a 1/300M chance of winning $687M in cash after taxes.
Expectation value = $687M/300M = $2.29, for a palty two bucks. Now all you have to do is figure out how to arbitrage this so that you can skim off that profit.
Maybe set up an ETF with an underlying portfolio of lottery tickets. The market is "sure" to bid up the price of that ETF's share from $2.00 to $2.29 - the "true" value of the portfolio.
Don't forget to hold back 37-38% of your winnings to pay the taxes you'll owe at year end for moving into that upper tax bracket. Or maybe hire the tax attorneys working for the unindicted co-conspirator's of the current administration to get out of that.
@MFO Members: If I'm not mistaken federal taxes are withheld from you winnings. 25% will be withheld, and the remaining 13.6% will be taken upon filing your yearly return. Regards, Ted
Ten states, along with Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, don't charge any state taxes on lottery winnings: California, Delaware, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.Jan 12, 2016
Can't you take the winnings as a type of annuity over 30 years as with the Powerball? I think in most states that's the most tax efficient way of receiving lottery winnings. I'd happily settle for a pre-tax income of $33.3 million a year.
Comments
Expectation value = $687M/300M = $2.29, for a palty two bucks. Now all you have to do is figure out how to arbitrage this so that you can skim off that profit.
Maybe set up an ETF with an underlying portfolio of lottery tickets. The market is "sure" to bid up the price of that ETF's share from $2.00 to $2.29 - the "true" value of the portfolio.
Maybe donate $5M to Morningstar to build a better website.
Definitely donate at least $5M to MFO.
Regards,
Ted
Good luck, Derf
instead of being thrilled to pay out of your immense good luck
Derf
Regards,
Ted
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/mega-millions-if-you-win-usd1-6-billion-dont-take-the-cash.html