Junkster awhile ago in a discussion I said the US 10 year will go to 1% before it goes to 3%.
It is in the 1.7% area today and with the Swiss' interest rates at 0%, it won't be too long until the US hits the 1%.
I'm still 100% in US High Yield Muni Bonds and I think they will do well this year and maybe several years in this low rate environment. I can sleep very well at night with this - thanks for pointing it out.
The way things are going - low interest rates and strong US$, there may come a time when High Yield Emerging Markets and other foreign bonds will be the investment.
Comments
Could not agree more!! And probably a dramatic rise at that! That is how this game is played. Logic is the bane of traders and investors alike.
"Are you suggesting, Inspector, that there is gambling going on in this establishment? Why, I'm shocked--- shocked!" Ha! You sound like Groucho Marx: "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them .... well, I have others."
Gasoline dampens U.S. inflation; mid-year rate hike in doubt
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0KP1H620150116
My thought is that this situation will last for at least 1 year and maybe as long as 4. It will take some time for people to recognize/admit the deflationary pressure.
HYD's all time high is 33.57, now 31.34. I will be watching that high and as/if we get close to it I would consider changing the dividends from re-investing to cash. Then watch to sell. Other things I would be watching is the yield on the 10 year and the US$. I really think with the relative high 10 year rate and the strong $ the USA will be importing deflation. The FED would make the situation worse by raising rates.
I'm watching the $ because it high yield foreign bonds might be a good buy on $ strength.
Many of those analysist have pushed their est for a FED increase to the 3rd quarter.