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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    One of the reasons I went with Roth conversions years ago. @Tarwheel makes a good point. If possible, try to keep all your funds subject to RMD at the same place. Simplifies matters. The calculations shouldn’t be hard. There’s a multitude of free websites you can pull up that will factor in birth date, etc. and provide the minimum RMD for a given year.
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    Today is the day for T+1!
    Stock trading in 1920s was T+1. Then, the volume rose and it was too much to handle manually. So, it became T+5. But with computers around for 60 years, it became T+3, then T+2, and now, finally, T+1 again.
    When will be T+0?
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wall-street-returns-to-t-1-stock-trading-after-a-century-1.2077882
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-returns-t-1-000000851.html
  • RMDs: when begin? 72? 73?
    From Barron's May 6, 2024,
    Frequent changes in the RMD rules are confusing. For tax-deferred accounts (T-IRA, 401k, 403b), the RMD age is 73 now (was 72 in 2023, 70.5 in 2020) and it will remain so until 2033. The RMD amount depends on the yearend balances, age-related IRS factor, and other factors such as marital status, very young spouse, beneficiaries. The 1st RMD can be delayed to April 1 of the following year but beware of the tax impact of double RMDs then. The RMD can be postponed if working. (There is a special 55.0-59.5 rule that avoids 10% penalty for premature withdrawals from a current 401k/403b; not so for old 401k/403b or T-IRA). The RMDs from T-IRAs can be aggregated and taken from any one T-IRA, and it’s similar for 403b, but not for 401k. There are different rules for inherited accounts for spouses, nonspouses, trusts, and whether the deceased had started taking the RMDs. The QCDs are allowed from T-IRAs. The Roth IRAs no longer require RMDs. (R-IRA rules are simple in retirement if 5 years beyond Roth Conversions, but nightmarish otherwise.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Sven, I do not recall seeing new issue non-callable Agencies in the past two years. I suspect, if they exist, the spreads over comparable Treasuries would be miniscule (10-20 bps) and may not be worth chasing such Agencies, especially because of their lower liquidity and transaction cost to sell - not to mention the potential to get caught in the DC political football.
    So, what I am doing is banking on the callable Agencies offering higher yield at least through the first call date and any extension is gravy but with the risk that rates might go up and at some point I might end up owning an agency that yields less than a comparable Treasury. I am assuming the probability of that risk is low relative to the extra yield I am picking up.
    Thanks for the auction schedule. I do not see an auction for 1 yr or later Treasuries until June 10.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    @shipwreckedandalone, the article had several good points.
    Quote: "By highlighting the “full market cycle” as the right period for judgment, they’re reminding investors that over shorter spans within the cycle they’ll look,"
    FD: is now the start of the market cycle? Is it a good choice to start in the middle?
    Full market cycle also means you must stay in the fund for many years to get the benefit of this fund....and now we get to the second problem
    Quote: "Since most investors have limited patience, most absolute value investors have limited careers."
    FD: can you stay long term in this fund? probably not, Cinnamond never managed the same fund for 15-20 years. His record shows 5 and 6 years, he is already in his fifth year at PVCMX. Since the fund has so much cash, it's obvious Cinnamond can't find valuable stocks, he may quit soon. In 2016 he said "Mr. Cinnamond recommended return of capital to his investors, noting that the market was fundamentally hostile to his investment style and that he was unwilling to charge investors “equity fund prices” while sitting at 90% cash."
    ==========
    Do I think this fund can serve a goal?
    Absolutely, if you are a retiree who has enough and just needs 6-7% with lower SD, go for it. This is where I am, but I use bond funds for that and do my own timing going to cash. On the other hand, a fund like RSIIX may generate 6-7% with lower SD but you can own it for years. MM have been paying over 5% for months now.
    How strong are you going to be in years when the fund is lagging badly...2021 PVCMX made 3.2% per M* same category made over 31%.
    Another idea...use it instead of VWIAX. The problem again is the fact I can own VWIAX for the next 30 years.
    Another idea...it can be a good choice for someone EXPLORE portion.
    Trade it? not a bad idea, but if you are a good trader you can do better or you know when to use it.
    Lastly, another problem is when many investors like to mention funds that have done well in the last several years and start using them when markets start to take off or avoid stocks for years.
  • Vanguard's new CEO
    @bee, I don’t think a new outside CEO will ‘right’ the ship at this point. @msf summarizes the message appropriately and Vanguard wants to exit many of the less profitable business. Ironically, Vanguard was our initial 401(k) administrator and they were very good. Web support has always been barebones and clunky but we managed.
    Having to upgrade their human customer services take lots of $ that Vanguard don’t want to do. We learn to use this web service well even though we have been Flagship clients for many years. Right now, we have moved all retirement accounts out from them. Next is our joint account.
  • PRWCX performance YTD
    IF you want a fund NTF at a brokerage, you're likely going to buy a share class with a higher ER. This is to help the fund pay the higher shelf space fee for being offered NTF.
    It doesn't really matter how the fund assesses the higher ER; what matters is only that it is a higher ER than the TF share class. Many funds get to a higher ER by charging a 12b-1 fee, but not all do. Some may charge a "service fee" without having a 12b-1 plan, so this fee is not shown as a 12b-1 fee. Rather it is buried in the "other fees".
    Or the fund may simply charge a higher management fee for the NTF share class and then the management company "pays" for the shelf space (out of its higher management fee). You can see this with TWCUX (0.95% management fee) and TWUIX (0.71% management fee). TWUIX is available w/TF and a $500 min at Vanguard.
    At many brokerages, TRP investor shares are available NTF without extracting a higher fee to pay for the NTF shelf space. The advisor shares (that add a 0.25% 12b-1 fee) were designed in part for brokerages that charged even more for NTF shelf space.
    Years ago I invested in a TRP fund, advisor share class, at Citicorp Investment Services. Citibank required a $5K min (combined bank/brokerage) for free checking. i was willing to eat $12.50/year (0.25% x $5K) for the "free" banking services. I later transferred the shares to TRP in-kind and exchanged the shares for cheaper investor shares.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    To revert to the title fund of this thread, below is the fund's performance, taken from its quarterly reports, which are available its website
    https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/fundcommentary
    and are separate from Cinnamond's occasional other comments
    https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/commentary.
    The fund commentaries report overall return, its cash percentage, the performance of its equities and the performance of the two small cap benchmarks it uses. In the five years since inception it has underperformed its benchmarks by less than its expense ratio, while providing a smoother ride. One might consider 20% of the fund as part of one's small cap apportionment and 80% as part of one's (attached, so not liquid) cash apportionment.

    PVCMX's PVCMX's PVCMX's S&P SmCap M* SmCap
    Overall Percent Equity 600 Index Tot Retn
    Quarter Return Cash Return Return Index
    ------- ------- ------- ------- --------- --------
    2019 Q2 0.70% 91.8% Absent -1.93% -1.35%
    2019 Q3 0.50 92.9 > BMks -0.20 -1.81
    2019 Q4 0.22 92.4 Absent 8.20 8.67
    2020 Q1 0.79 52.0 Absent -32.65 -31.61
    2020 Q2 10.74 72.5 27.3% 21.94 25.47
    2020 Q3 0.89 70 ~=BMks 3.17 4.90
    2020 Q4 5.78 Absent 22.14% 31.27 29.29
    2021 Q1 3.60 80 19.10 18.23 11.62
    2021 Q2 1.16 81.4 6.94 4.50 4.23
    2021 Q3 -1.06 79.8 -3.40 -2.85 -3.67
    2021 Q4 0.04 79 1.34 5.59 3.72
    2022 Q1 1.94 80 10.85 -5.64 -6.18
    2022 Q2 -0.74 75.8 -3.22 -14.13 -16.44
    2022 Q3 -1.83 76.6 -8.66 -5.20 -3.75
    2022 Q4 3.86 78.9 15.36 9.19 8.05
    2023 Q1 3.01 79 12.2 2.57 4.90
    2023 Q2 1.62 82 4.78 3.38 5.60
    2023 Q3 0.56 81 -0.78 -4.93 -4.56
    2023 Q4 4.00 77.7 14.25 15.12 14.07
    2024 Q1 1.04 81.9 2.11 2.46 5.69
    Since
    Inception 7.55 8.47 8.31
    (04/30/19)
  • WealthTrack Show
    I've viewed the results of a study which indicated stock markets in more democratic countries
    produced higher long-term returns. Although I didn't delve into the details of this study,
    it seems logical there would be considerable divergence between the least / most democratic nations.
    FRDM has existed for only 5 years but it has trounced EEM during this short time period.
    I believe much of the fund's performance can be attributed to excluding China.
    Link
  • WealthTrack Show
    May 25 Episode:
    Perth Tolle created the Life + LIberty Indexes on the theory that democracy pays. Her Freedom 100 Emerging Markets Index is proof, trouncing its autocracy-heavy benchmark in its first five years.


  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    I have always used recommended grade synthetic oil, even though my car manual requires regular oil. I just pay more to allow me to be lazy! (My car is 24 years old.)
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Why do the newer cars tell one when they need to change oil? My Dad’s car, 12 years newer than mine, has not told him to change oil in the past two years. My car manual does have time bound oil change schedule but I have ignored it when I found out about my Dad’s car manual not having a time bound requirement for oil change. I will think about changing in the next few months.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    "I don't need to mention the whole thing each time."
    I've never seen you "mention the whole thing."
    You stated "diversification is a protection against ignorance" omitting everything else.
    "It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held."
    Regardless of your thoughts on this subject, it doesn't make much sense to benchmark certain funds
    (e.g., small-cap value, EM equity, small-cap foreign, etc.) against the S&P 500.
    "Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree."
    Your statement is presumptuous since you don't know how my portfolio is constructed.
    BTW, I agree that S&P 500 index funds are good investment vehicles.
    "Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be."
    I've witnessed the following over the past 5 years or so.
    You stipulated investors should have just owned an S&P 500 index fund or QQQ over the past xx years.
    Looking in the investment rear-view mirror, this "analysis" is not very insightful or beneficial.
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results...
    This pablum included in numerous corresponding posts, frankly, is rather tiresome.
    "And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000."
    As was mentioned previously, even the very best active fund managers will suffer bouts of underperformance. How did you determine 6 - 12 months is an appropriate evaluation period?
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX - May 2024
    I d
    Investing in SC or anywhere else is your choice.
    When someone lags the most famous index in the world, the SP500, they pull out the DIVERSIFICATION card.
    Buffett said the following: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance".
    [snip]
    A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance.
    [snip]

    There you go again - quoting Buffett out of context!
    Warren Buffett talking to MBA students:
    "If you are not a professional investor; if your goal is not to manage in such a way that you
    get a significantly better return than the world, then I believe in extreme diversification.
    I believe that 98 or 99 percent —maybe more than 99 percent—
    of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.

    That leads them to an index fund with very low costs.
    All they’re going to do is own a part of America.
    They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile.
    I don’t quarrel with that at all. That is the way they should approach it."

    financinglife.org/learn-how-to-invest/warren-buffett-on-diversification/
    S&P 500 index funds have proven to be good long-term investments.
    However, it's ridiculous to benchmark all funds against the S&P 500 regardless of investment styles
    and objectives. It's interesting when someone who invests in a way which is diametrically opposed
    to Mr. Buffett's approach periodically "quotes" Buffett nonetheless.
    I strongly disagree that "A fund manager is good as his last 6-12 months of performance."
    Even the very best fund managers will underperform from time to time.
    Should investors move in/out of funds based on short-term performance?
    These actions often lead to excessive trading and inferior returns¹.
    Numerous studies have indicated frequent trading is hazardous to one's wealth.
    ¹ Skilled traders can generate excellent returns. They are few and far in between.
    I don't need to mention the whole thing each time. I have said hundreds of times seen that that Buffet said "Diversification is a protection against ignorance" and his second choice is the SP500.
    It is not ridiculous to compare every stock fund to the SP500 or VTI which is the standard and most held. Your portfolio lags and why you don't agree.
    Since 2010, I have posted on several sites why LC tilting growth (SP500 is an easy choice) is where you want to be. Every year you hear from many experts and posters why not EM, SC, value? valuation is great...and almost every year their portfolio lags.
    And why a manager is as good as his/her last 6-12 months? this is how you avoid funds that lag for years and what I have done now since 2000.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    Regardless of mileage, engine oil should probably be changed at least once per year.
    Can I change oil every two years?
    "No. Almost no automaker recommends that oil should be left in the crankcase for more than one year—no matter the mileage."
    https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a26590646/how-often-to-change-oil/
    "It’s not just about miles: If you don’t drive your car a lot, your oil still needs to be kept fresh. Even if you drive fewer miles each year than your automaker suggests for changing the oil (say, 6,000 miles, with suggested oil-change intervals at 7,500 miles), you should still be getting that oil changed twice a year.
    Why? Oil becomes less effective as it ages, and by not getting the engine warm enough, excess moisture that forms in the engine will not be removed, which can lead to shorter engine life."
    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-maintenance/things-to-know-about-oil-changes-for-your-car-a9532249359/
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    @msf, I do not travel or drive much, even when I was working, though my job allowed one to live on planes. I drive so little that I have not changed oil in my car in 5 years. I bought a few plane tickets on the Costco Citi card in the past year. I misspoke about 5%; it was 4%; I have to carry the Costco Citi card as it works as a Costco membership card. I forgot which cards dropped CDW coverage; hopefully I will remember to check next time I need it but my car insurance covers CDW on rentals. I try not to use more than 2 CC of my own in a month as I am asked to manage other family members’ affairs.
  • Fidelity Rewards Signature Card?
    About a dozen years ago I had heard on the "Clark Howard" radio show that he thought the fidelity card was one of the best as you could have the 2% reward points automatically deposited into you fidelity roth ira. So that is what I have doing since then. Very happy with the results.
  • Applaud Good Service from service Reps
    Vanguard dropped personal reps (for those not paying for PAS) years ago. Here's a 2021 Bogleheads thread discussing this.
    There may be the oddball Flagship customer or two (see "Gill" in the thread) who continues to have a personal rep for unknown reasons. But generally the free service is long gone.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=363122
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.

    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
    Description reads like a credit fund and not a hybrid allocation fund. May be the hybrid is public- private credit hybrid?
  • Capital Group (American Funds parent) getting into PE
    Capital and KKR are planning a series of hybrid funds that will invest in both publicly and privately traded assets. The first two strategies, expected to launch next year, will hold about 60% in public bonds picked by Capital managers, and 40% in direct and asset-based loans sourced by KKR.

    These are likely the asset allocation or balanced funds. Really have to monitor these funds as they evolve.
    TRP has a global allocation fund with 10% in private equity, and the fund is very average in performance for a number of years.
    Yup. I didn't like the (then) 10-15% Blackstone Black Box they were promoting in RPGAX. I was interested in the fund to compliment PRWCX but I like knowing what I own!