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The following provides a brief recap of the RiverNorth conference call held on March 19th.
Capital markets and economic volatility/uncertainty has led to unprecedented volatility in the CEF markets
RiverNorth estimates that 90%+ of the CEF market is owned by retail – and they are in full retreat
Co-portfolio manager Steve O’Neill described some of the CEF price action last week as a “9.5 out of 10 on the CEF panic scale”
Discounts hit (and in some cases exceeded) levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
To keep investors appraised of the opportunity set, RiverNorth started posting discount data here: rivernorth.com/cef-discount-info
The opportunity is broad based – nearly all CEF asset classes trading at historically wide discounts
https://fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/stock-market-drops-2020Key takeaways
The big questions are when will the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases peak and will the fiscal and monetary policy response be enough?
The significant drop in the stock market has been made significantly worse by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as forced deleveraging and a soaring dollar.
Earnings estimates for the next few quarters tumbled last week, and will likely fall further in the coming weeks.
While further US stock market declines are quite possible or even likely, my technical work suggests that the momentum of this decline may diminish in the weeks ahead.
By Loeffler's own admission, her holdings are not in a blind trust. She is routinely told what she owns (independent of whether it is in a trust).Mark - This article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/politics/kelly-loeffler-richard-burr-insider-trading.html?searchResultPosition=1 refers to Sen. Feinstein's office stating that her investments are in a blind trust. (There's a link.) Not sure about a link from Sen. Loeffler. Both senators are married to wealthy investors.
Thanks for that chart @wxman123 . I, like many, am trying to figure out when to move in a substantial way to reenter the market of stocks. This history lesson from 1917 to 1918 is helpful in that regard. It suggests that at some point living with a pandemic becomes the new normal and gets priced into the market. So far I have been nibbling enough to keep the stock % in my portfolio from dropping significantly, but nothing more. I am currently inclined to wait at least until fall to see if there is a new surge in covid-19 cases then before moving back into stocks in a more substantial way.....assuming the initial surge peaks within the next several weeks. That will also provide time to get a sense for peoples willingness to restrict their interactions over an extended period of time as a vaccine is probably not going to be available any time soon.I saw a pretty interesting chart the other day comparing covid-19 with the Spanish flu in terms of market reaction. Nearly identical to this point. With the Spanish flu the market recovered rapidly and well before the virus subsided. If we follow the same pattern now is the time to buy. We may not follow the 2008 model, which was a financial crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-behavior-a-century-ago-suggests-the-worst-could-be-over-for-stocks-if-not-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-19
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