Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    I saw a pretty interesting chart the other day comparing covid-19 with the Spanish flu in terms of market reaction. Nearly identical to this point. With the Spanish flu the market recovered rapidly and well before the virus subsided. If we follow the same pattern now is the time to buy. We may not follow the 2008 model, which was a financial crisis.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-behavior-a-century-ago-suggests-the-worst-could-be-over-for-stocks-if-not-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-19
  • Consider bond ladders for bear market peace of mind

    Https://www.dailycamera.com/2020/03/20/david-gardner-consider-bond-ladders-for-bear-market-peace-of-mind/
    /David Gardner: Consider bond ladders for bear market peace of mind
    By DAVID GARDNER |
    To say the financial world has changed in the two weeks since my last column would be a vast understatement. A month ago we reached an all-time high in the S&P 500 large company index. There was a brief scare when it looked like China would not be able to control the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, but our stock market recovered after new cases started to recede. /
    Anyone have experiences having 60/40 [but 40 have combined bond laddering portfolio]. Maybe all seasoned proof portfolio according to author
  • 12 Bond Mutual Funds and ETFs to Buy for Protection
    In this stressful time, which cries for serious and thoughtful information exchange, why MFO is being cluttered with garbage like this is completely beyond my comprehension. It echoes the performance from the very top of the present administration: let's keep on chattering about how everything will be just fine very soon, and keep up all of the ridiculous happy-talk. Unbelievable.
    Ego, more than likely. "If I keep on shouting, maybe somebody will notice me". Again, following the example from the top.

    People deal with stress in different ways. That’s what you’re seeing OJ. Nobody’s diminishing the dire straits the nation finds itself in. Some folks want to keep buying as markets fall. Nothing to make you forget about the 15-20% week’s loss in your IRA than placing a bet on a new pony or two. Some people drink or turn to entertainment. Since the board is dedicated pretty much to financial matters, you’ll find it here - the good investment stories, the bad ones, and everything in between, even though we know that the health crisis vastly overshadows those pursuits.
    I watch or read 4, 5, 6 hours news daily - a real junkie, always been. Bloomberg’s on a lot. Usually catch both the ABC & CBS network wrap-ups evenings. A bit of CNN and MSNBC. Overall, I’ll give them high marks on this one. Good objective reporting and advice. CNN had a hellova good discussion the other night with several top medical people along with the deliberate David Gergen, a veteran commentator with DC experience I’ve always respected. But a lot of people refuse to listen because the “news” networks have for so many years saturated the audience with sensational overly hyped “man-bites-dog” stories designed to pull in high ratings so that when the crisis of our lifetimes comes along, many dismiss it as just another sensationalized episode that will be over in a couple weeks.
    Shopping today in an area supermarket the folks I encountered seemed oblivious to what’s going on. Bemused that anyone was concerned about the C Virus, which is progressing northward toward them. I don’t know how typical that is. A lot of people here have taken this seriously and likely are staying away from stores and other places people congregate. So, the ones I met are likely atypical - but do represent a certain element. I suppose only when our Governor declares a lockdown in maybe another week and / or their loved ones take ill will they face up to the situation.
    Unfortunately (perhaps fortunately) this isn’t a political discussion board. My sense from the news I digest is that there’s a lot of blame to be placed on our national leadership for getting a late start in this, ignoring the seriousness early on and misrepresenting certain facets of the evolving situation even today. When you fire the competents who are willing to stand up to you and surround yourself with say-nothing incompetents, than these eventualities are likely to occur. So I’m angry. Am I gonna waste my time rolling around in the mud with the “other side”? No. Got more than enough to worry about right now and deeply concerned about many friends and loved ones spread across this vast land - many of whom I’ve been in touch with.
    God bless California and New York. God help us all.
  • Value vs. Growth Stocks: What’s the Difference?
    https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/value-vs-growth-stocks
    Value vs. Growth Stocks: What’s the Difference?
    Investing in the stock market can help you build wealth, but deciding what types of stocks to invest in can be challenging. For example, you may be deciding between value and growth stocks and weighing how each of these two styles of investing can help you meet your investment goals. Understanding how value and growth stocks compare is an important step in building a solid portfolio that aligns with your needs and objectives
  • The Rise of Green Bonds
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/is/en/thinking/articles/2020/q1/rise-green-bonds.html
    /the Rise of Green Bonds
    Why investors should take a closer look at the green bond market.
    Key Insights
    Growth of the green bond market expected to continue in 2020, led by sovereigns.
    Germany’s willingness to issue green bonds is likely to act as a reference point for other issuers.
    There is an opportunity to start integrating green bonds into fixed income portfolios./
    Trow price Dynamic Global Bond and Global Aggregate Bond
    Anyone use these vehicles?
  • Another buying opportunity
    @hank;you said," I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly.
    End of this conversation, Derf
    Not necessarily. If you send me a polite request (via the mfo mail service) sometime after December 31, 2020 I just might share my 2020 net gain / loss numbers with you. I do compute returns at the end of every year for my own purposes and store them in my data bank. However, what possible value to others such (unsubstantiated) data would provide is a bit of a mystery. Frankly, I think it’s silly to get excited about the last 2-3 months’ performance. Seasoned investors know that such data over short periods like that is pretty meaningless. It’s the aggregate compounded return over a number of years that matters.
    In addition to being irrelevant and potentially misleading, performance claims by anonymous voices on an open forum like this are just that. Barring confirming specifics such as name, address, SS#, account numbers and certified statements from financial institutions these claims must be considered unsubstantiated. That’s not an indictment of the forum. There’s a lot to be said for an informal and mostly anonymous arrangement like this.
    You have caused me to rethink how I post. Some whom I respect mightily here have routinely declined to provide specifics regarding their investments / investment approach. But they’re great contributors in other ways. I suspect that in some cases they recognize that without providing personal and substantiating data, their claims would be of dubious value or open to suspicion. In other cases, I suspect it’s because they’re not certified to advise other investors and fear that by referencing their holdings they might inadvertently steer someone in the wrong direction.
    In the future I’ll refrain in my board posts from mentioning any “buys” or “sells” or any mutual funds I own currently or have owned previously. Nor will I acknowledge any business associations I may have with any specific fund company or other fiduciaries or any associations I may have had in the past. Further, I’ll refrain from making any comment about perceived market valuation or direction. I won’t mention specific types of investments I own. And I won’t divulge my allocation to various assets. In essence, comments I’m not willing to substantiate by providing personal account-specific information have no place in this forum. Additionally, I’m not a certified financial advisor and so should not be opining about such matters as asset allocation, market valuations or direction.
    Best regards
  • Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-gdp-impact-bigger-than-financial-crisis-j-p-morgan
    Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    J.P. Morgan is calling for a sharper U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, than the country experienced during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    I haven't read any negative comments on M* from the financial press. But I haven't been looking for them either. Neither do I spend a lot of time in the market blogosphere, like Seeking Alpha.
    My own observation is that their home page has lost its focus on mutual funds. The result is a discordant mischmasch of conflicting advice aimed at a variety of different audiences from IRA buyers to stock pickers to financial advisors.
    Consider the CEO's letter to readers posted recently.
    Many investors today have never experienced a bear market in their personal investing and many more hadn’t accumulated significant wealth of their own during the last downturn. The same is true for many professional investors who either have never experienced this type of market environment or did not have as much professional financial responsibility during it. This is a challenging environment for the experienced and even more unsettling for the inexperienced.
    Say what? A thirty year old with an interest in investing might have noticed a couple of major shocks growing up. I noticed the end of the silver standard as a mere lad of 8 tender years. Nor was it possible to avoid the impact of inflation.
    If young professional investors have not studied, and learned from, recent large shocks I would not trust my money to them. Such people will continue to be punished by market surprises until they learn to pay attention to valuations and leverage.
    Morningstar’s mission is to empower investor success, and we are committed to weathering this storm with all investors. We are confident that with a sustained focus on long-term investing principles, investors will manage through this crisis just fine.
    Does that mean we should be reading another iteration from Christine Benz, John Rekenthaler's dyspeptic musings, or the latest stock touts?
    The writing has never been very strong. Sam Lee was the only person I looked forward to. Russ Kinnel spends most of his time on their more expensive platforms. Jeff Ptak touts indexes. And there are only so many ways Benz can rewrite the same five or six topics.
  • TARP , TALF , QE - Infinity , what will be plan neXt , as in "X"
    CNBC article, Monday:
    "In the days ahead, Jones expects the Fed to institute some type of facility to address commercial paper."
    NYTimes article Wednesday (link comes from Mark's MMF article):
    "Taking a page from its 2008 financial crisis playbook, the Fed said it would backstop the $1.13 trillion market for commercial paper, a key funding source used by companies to cover payroll and day-to-day operations."
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/economy/federal-reserve-coronavirus.html
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    From the NY Times
    "WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said late Wednesday night that it would offer emergency loans to money market mutual funds, its latest in a series of steps to keep the financial system functioning and prop up the economy as it spirals toward recession during the coronavirus pandemic.
    The Fed said in a release that it would establish a so-called Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, which would be backed by $10 billion from the Treasury Department. That program joins a similar lending one for banks, established this week.
    Click to Read
  • How the COVID-19 sell-off compares with previous market slides
    https://www.investmentnews.com/how-covid-19-sell-off-compares-previous-market-slides-190131
    How the COVID-19 sell-off compares with previous market slides
    While a global pandemic is scary, advisers say it may be easier for clients to understand than the financial complexities that drove the 2008 crisis
  • Another buying opportunity
    Are you trying to be funny @Derf?
    By your definition, there were hundreds of “buying opportunities” between October 9, 2007 and March 9, 2009. Had you bought every time the market dropped 5, 6, 7% you’d have spent most of your amo before the best opportunities presented themselves. Think of “buying down” as if swigging on a pint of Jim Beam. Nice and slow. Pace yourself man. Live for another day.
    “The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market.”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009
    Here’s a “pop quiz” for Derf - How many times can something fall by 10% ?
  • Gov stimulus package info
    https://www.investopedia.com/government-stimulus-efforts-to-fight-the-covid-19-crisis-4799723?utm_source=personalized&utm_campaign=homepage&utm_term=19744559&utm_medium=email
    Gov stimulus package info
    United States
    The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus:
    On March 3, 2020, it made an unscheduled cut to the fed funds rate. It slashed rates by 0.5%, double the amount of its recent moves, and the largest cut since the 2008 financial crisis.4
    On March 12, the Fed massively expanded reverse repo operations, adding $1.5 trillion of liquidity to the banking system5 . This means that the Fed extended the amount of short term loans to banks to keep money markets (markets for very short term loans) stable and allow banks to have more cash on hand.
    On March 15, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a full percentage point down to a range of 0.00% to 0.25%. This dropped the fed funds rate to the level it was before the rate increases starting in 2015. In addition, the Federal Reserve restarted quantitative easing with the purchase of $500 billion in treasurys and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.6
    On March 16, the Federal Reserve increased reverse repo operations by another $500 billion.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    I have been a long time fan of MFO and trust most of the participants opinions. Lately, I have been coming across negative comments by various financial writers who seem to have a strong bias against Morningstar reports. I depend on M* and would appreciate any info you can provide, pro or con. Thank you for being there. Stay safe.
  • Treasury vs Non-Treasury MM funds
    Folks,
    While I'm looking at prospectuses of the various MM funds I own at TRP, Vanguard, Fido, Schwab, etc, is there a way to verify that my MM fund is investing in treasuries? Worried of one/all of them breaking the buck, like happened to some funds in last financial crisis.
    I worry when I see stuff like this...
    Yankee/Foreign 60% of assets
    in Vanguard Prime Money Market
    https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMMXX
  • TARP , TALF , QE - Infinity , what will be plan neXt , as in "X"
    Really short on time this AM, a bit sloppy for this post.
    TARP and TALF were the monetary back stops for the 2008 market melt, the last chance at the time. Aside from the state of the equity side of life and the focus there; the forgotten parts regular investors don't think about much; is the health of the "other" monetary areas of the economy. There are the every day, don't pay much attention to; large institution that are important in many aspects of everyday life; being large insurance companies and pension funds.
    One example: As a result of the 2008 market melt, Lincoln Financial Group purchased a small S & L in order to qualify for a bail out package. The organization was at the edge of collapse.
    More on this and a few links are at this April, 2017 MFO page.
    The below Fed Act is a broad search, so you'll have to pick and choose by newest date for likely best review; if you have interest in this.
    Federal Reserve Act, Sect. 13(3)
    CNBC article
    Overview, IMHO: Gonna have to be a pile of fiscal action via Congress, aside from whatever is "legal" from the Treasury or Fed. Reserve.
    Will repeat, Treasury check to the adults; and $2 Trillion other money; as a start
    Hey, what do you think???
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • multiple hedge funds lost during outbreaks
    https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hedge-fund-and-insider-trading-news-ricky-sandler-anthony-scaramucci-ray-dalio-lansdowne-partners-raymond-james-financial-inc-rjf-chimerix-inc-cmrx-and-more-819926/
    Hedge Fund and Insider Trading News: Ricky Sandler, Anthony Scaramucci, Ray Dalio, Lansdowne Partners, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF), Chimerix Inc (CMRX), lost during outbreaks
    Totally Understandable,’ Scaramucci Says (CNBC)
    It’s “totally understandable” why U.S. stock futures plunged after the Federal Reserve’s latest moves to counter the economic hit from the coronavirus outbreak, said Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund investor who briefly served as President Donald Trump’s White House communications chief. “The reason why markets are selling off right now is we have a ton of information about the virus, but a very, very little amount of understanding,” Scaramucci, founder and co-managing partner of Skybridge Capital, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday
  • Sell US dollar?... markets bottoming soon??!
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/morgan-stanley-says-markets-bottoming-022115915.html
    Morgan Stanley Says Markets Are Bottoming So Sell U.S. Dollar
    (Bloomberg) -- Global financial markets are now in a bottoming phase, and investors should start to add risk and sell the U.S. dollar, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • Very Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332110-15-safe-blue-chips-to-buy-during-this-bear-market
    ry Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD
    The bear market so many have long feared is here. Stocks didn't just enter a bear market last week, they crashed into one with gusto.
    COVID-19 panic, combined with worst oil crash since the Financial Crisis, have combined to create a perfect storm of fear, literally the second highest in 30 years.
    However, regardless of when this bear market ends (and it surely will), great companies are always on sale, BUT especially when the market is panicking.
    CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD are 15 very safe blue chips who have collectively delivered 15% CAGR returns over the last 23 years.
    From today's 25% undervaluation they could deliver about 17% CAGR long-term returns. Just don't forget to always use the right asset allocation for your needs, because when the bears roar on Wall Street, almost no stock is spared short-term pain
  • GP Global Micro Cap & International Opportunities Fund to reopen
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420006030/fp0051857_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 16, 2020 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND
    PROSPECTUS FOR THE GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL MICRO CAP FUND AND GRANDEUR
    PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND (EACH A "FUND," AND TOGETHER,
    THE "FUNDS") DATED AUGUST 31, 2019
    Effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund will reopen to shareholders who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in the Fund.
    Also, effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund will reopen through financial intermediaries to financial advisors who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants in existing retirement plans in the Fund. The Fund is also already open to both existing and new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE