FICO is corrosively sad; they serve up big errors to the reporting oligopoly when needed most, or needed not at all.
3 years after early retirement, FICO show :
my home address of ~3 moves ago which is ~9 years old.
my highest score ever....not much room left.
all this despite opening a new bank and credit card after retiring.
what are the repercussions of getting all these things wrong? none, just like the business credit raters.

Subramanian doesn't make sense.
If 1+2 above are correct then Subramanian models and predictions are useless too.
Quote "we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates" is false of course.
See (link1) (link2) and look at 5 years.
==============
Subramanian like most others, can't make predictions either. Just 2 examples:
On 11-21-2023 (link) "‘Stock Picker’s Paradise’: Bank Of America Strategists Predict S&P 500 Hitting Record High In 2024" + " S&P 500 closing 2024 at 5,000"
So far wrong on both, SPY/QQQ are doing great, no need to pick anything. SP500 is already at 5460.
On 12-03-2021 (link)
Listen to the interview around 2:05, "Stocks are not in a bubble."
The SP500 lost about 24% at the bottom in 2022.
So, looking at my dirty crystal ball, value COULD be the next thing, after all, it's been behind since 2009, but I have heard that EM, SC, and Value are surely the next thing for years already :-)
BTW, what exactly is VALUE investing? another tricky question. When NVDA PE in late 2023 was in the thirties, was that a value?
Schwab tells us (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/ways-to-approach-falling-interest-rates)....when rates fall, "to look at high-quality stocks that are well positioned to continue servicing their debts"...mmm...isn't the high-quality stocks the ones at the top with huge cash and no debt?

How do they track interest rates over 5000 years? What was Noah getting on his CD's? Asking for a friend.
Asset light? I don't mean to make a prediction, but maybe they aren't thinking about rising mercantilist sentiments and re-shoring. Chinese EV factories aren't a subscription. World-wide economic populism doesn't seem interested in stinking subscriptions.
Valuations are all wrong, but value is the next big thing. Value without assets. Hooray.
It would be nice if value was the next new thing. I own a lovely chunk of DODGX that has been toiling along for years. But I read somewhere that predictions are useless.
What's all this talk about income? What happened to total return?
In my grandfather's day these lines of arguments were described as BS, for Blue Sky, of course.

Unfortunately, once a high balance is captured by the credit agencies, that high balance and the corresponding high credit utilization will stick for years. A quick or early payoff may not reverse that.

@mcmarasco: CGUS may well be a good choice. At present, I doubt that the FI allocation in a balanced fund will add much more value than what my pretty large stake in a MMF pays. I do have CBLDX and OSTIX as my sole bond funds and only one allocation fund, DGIFX. In the past, I held considerable stakes in balanced funds, i.e., Oakmark or Janus, but no more. In recent years, the FI portion and the allocation to international have held back the performance of the Vanguard target date funds in my TIAA account; there also I have shifted away from those holdings to an equity index or actively managed stock funds. YMMV and you may have a different approach.

I don't know if this applies to your situation or not but one common "gotcha" on many "No fees or Interest for the First X Years" is that interest and fees will accrue over the X time span if the credit charge account is not paid off before the end of that X time.
Also once you start receiving Billing Statements and they show a minimum amount due I would strongly suggest that you make that payment amount. Not worth the risk of a checkmark on your credit score.

Thanks @Mark. That all sounds very likely. I’d expect one can make those monthly payments with a simple transfer of assets from their Fidelity Cash Management account to Elan, who services the Fidelity card. There’s already some linkage established. In order to qualify for the 2% cash-back on purchases, you have to allow them to deposit the cash in a Fidelity account. (I selected CM). I’m pretty meticulous about stuff like that. Double-check for sure!

Thanks David. I agree completely on the LCV call being the place to be over the next few years (and I'm there already, currently very heavy in energy, utes and infra myself.)
In terms of models, I had to chuckle. First they say models are meaningless, and then they discuss how their models work best? Not sure I can brain that one.....

I don't know if this applies to your situation or not but one common "gotcha" on many "No fees or Interest for the First X Years" is that interest and fees will accrue over the X time span if the credit charge account is not paid off before the end of that X time.
Also once you start receiving Billing Statements and they show a minimum amount due I would strongly suggest that you make that payment amount. Not worth the risk of a checkmark on your credit score.

Thanks @msf. Excellent information. Credit score is typically around 800. I could be wrong, but doubt it would take a big hit. I still have another Elan card that’s been paid in full every month since first issued about 20 years ago. No auto loans / installment debt. Small 3.15% mortgage. Your articles provide good food for thought. I knew there was some connection between credit & insurance but was unaware of the extent.
When I tried doing the credit app online I hit a snag. So it was done over the phone. I really had my doubts whether the 18 months interest-free offer was for real.
Had built up a cash surplus inside the IRAs over past month or so thinking I’d pay off the work with a check. Today I put much of it back to work in the diversified portfolio. Fortunately, most markets haven’t moved much over past 30 days.
There’s a bit of a trade off. I won’t be using the card for “everyday purchases” anytime soon. For most people, I suspect, the 2% on everything they buy would be a greater “prize” over a year than what I’m planning to do.
Yes, the $1000 interest would be taxable, except it will be earned inside tax deferred / tax exempt IRAs by not having to withdraw monies a year earlier. My hypothetical example was kind of fuzzy on that.
While the contractor says he doesn’t currently charge a fee for CC payments, that could change. No guarantee until the work is completed / paid for. Some physicians in the area have a “courtesy fee” if you pay with a CC. Another contractor who did some work for me recently says he charges a 5% fee if you use a card.

Subramanian is head of US equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, and was the kickoff speaker for the conference. She made three sorts of arguments:
1. most market forecast models are completely useless. BoA has reviewed their performance and they have an R-squared of zero. That is, there is zero predictive validity in them. (Which models, exactly? For what time frames? Doesn't say, presumably because they would only slow things down.)
In addition, most strategists are contrarian indicators; the more they are enthused, the worse the market's forward returns. BoA has a timing model based on that: they survey strategies for their recommended equity exposure in a balanced portfolio. BoA has discovered that the best buy signal is when the average recommendation drops below 51.3% and the best sell signal is when it hits 58%. They survey 20 strategists monthly (I believe) and the current rec is about 55%, which she describes as providing a lack of guidance.
(What, you ask, is the genesis of this model? She seems not to know where it came from; she inherited it from her predecessor, Rich Bernstein, and suspects that he inherited it from his predecessor. What is that R-squared of BoA's model? No hint. And since she had a schedule conflict and had to leave right after her talk rather than do the promising Q&A with journalists.)
2. the market is in a good place just now. Traditional valuation metrics are all wrong since they're premised on an economy that no longer exists. Dynamic industries are asset-light, so book value is largely meaningless. Subscriptions have replaced sales. Inflation at 2-4% is positive for equities. Inflows are strong. The equity risk premium is historically low. US companies have been replacing people with AI which is good because "people are risky, processes are predictable." (Climate change doesn't exist, elections don't matter, we're on a permanently high plateau for ... sorry, that's an editorial aside.)
3. large cap value is the coming sweet spot. Pensions and hedge fund have become dramatically underweight publicly traded equities in favor of private equity, but the attraction of the latter is fading as correlations rise and gains are arbitraged away. In particular, she projects that boomers will need income, that fixed-income isn't attractive (we recently reached, she reports, a 5,000 year low in interest rates), and so there will be a migration to equity-income strategies centered on dividend-paying stocks. Prior to 2013, 50% of equity returns came from dividends (a troubled statement depending on the time-frame since, as she notes above, the economy has changed) and that might recur. Meta and Alphabet are both looking to initiate dividends, a sign of big tech growth stocks are maturing into more traditional corporations. Some IPOs have even played with the idea of incorporating a dividend into their initial offering (my head hurts). Sectors like energy (companies that are now rewarding their executives for decarbonizing and cash return rather than on meeting production targets), tech and financials stand to benefit.

interesting to note that vhcax, the 3rd primecap vanguard fund w/admiral fees, has not reopened.
its largest holding, lilly @$2.5b in value, is bigger than the next 4 combined.
if i had to guess one secret sauce for primecap and giroux, its avoiding sentiment plays from the onset but letting business winners run.

If you look at the top 10 or 20 holdings, they were first purchased 20 years ago. And per M*, the turnover is 6%.

What do the seasoned investors on this board think of capital groups ETF’s as a whole? But In particular, CGUS, CGDV, CGGR?
I’ve never invested in Capital Group funds until they entered the ETF market. I currently hold double-digits in CGUS and CGDV. I’ve been pleased with their performance so far, although they have a little more overlap (per etfrc.com).
I like to invest in active funds to compliment the passive funds I own. FYI : I only hold a handful of funds.
There seems to be enough uniqueness because they often zig/zag somewhat.
Any comments or thoughts are greatly appreciated! Thx. Matt

AF equity products have largely become closet index funds. That said these ETF's have less than 10billion in assets so don't necessarily have the bloat. I assumed originally that these were largely ETF versions of their larger flagships but as of now they are slightly different.
for me they are different enough to pay attention to but I also feel like eventually they'll become more aligned with their indexes than they should.
CGGR is the only one i've tracked and as of now it is underperforming its index but 2 months ago it was beating it and 2 years is really not much of a record to make a decision on.
I think the real value for these are people who invest outside of retirement accounts. regardless of performance the tax implications of AF funds are pretty big. the ETF wrapper allows you to stay in AF but not have the huge tax hits year in and year out.

Jeff Demaso commented on the Tuesday morning Vanguard outage.
"Judging by my inbox and Downdetector, Vanguard’s website and app stopped functioning on Tuesday morning."
"We all make mistakes, but Vanguard’s technology and service snafus have become the firm’s Achilles heel. What’s remarkable is that Vanguard continues to ignore their failings, making statements about their improvements like this:
In recent years, Vanguard has intentionally and strategically invested in modernizing our digital pathways – including our website and the Vanguard mobile app – as part of our commitment to providing a world-class experience for our clients. We encourage our investors to web register and utilize Vanguard digital channels for an efficient, effective, and secure client experience."
"Salim Ramji will become Vanguard’s CEO on July 8. I hope he has “fix our technology and service” at the top of his to-do list."
https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/a-glimpse-of-the-next-cycle

BINC looks a lot better on Blackrock’s website than at M*. Geeeeze.
It has no cash (actually a few percent negative) compared to M*’s reported 43%!
And very little sub investment grade paper - roughly 25% (but almost all BB). You couldn’t tell that from M *. Looks like a currently moderate duration of 3-5 years.
Interestingly, Rieder has gone into international holdings with about 30% (+ - ) listed as non-US.
I don’t worry much about historical performance with bond funds. Much more interested in what they hold. We’ve been through some very abnormal times.
Derivatives are fine. (thanks @msf) They are used near exclusively by commodity funds (Who wants a boat-load of hogs?) But the ice below me feels a little thicker when they’re not being employed to large extent. I’ve spent hours exploring the world of bond funds, as might appear. I did come across mention that certain tactics don’t work as well for the manager in an ETF as they do with an OEF. But don’t remember the exact context.
Thanks all. Very helpful.

Instead of PIMIX or PYLD(both are similar), look at RCTIX.
One year chart(https://schrts.co/JRNGpRmT)
3 year chart(https://schrts.co/RfSCENuJ)
The above is not a recommendation or a guarantee; do your own due diligence.
I sold PIMIX in 01/2018 after I invested over 50% of my money in it for years.

I do own PIMIX, PYLD and some Pimco CEFs.
I don't fully understand Pimco's black-box, but based on its existence and superior record for YEARS, I make an exception.
But I don't make such exceptions lightly. In general, I stay away from funds that rely heavily on options/futures/derivatives.
I suppose this falls in the categories of not fully knowing what my car mechanic does, or what my spine surgeon does. I just pretend to "understand" those broadly.

@Hank. Since we are looking at Pimco Funds asset allocation please check out the popular PIMIX. As The Who said so many years ago,,,,, Can’t Explain.

Hi PopTart Nice to see you here again. The below chart is for 5 years, for PSTL, O and PFE. Stockcharts still provides Total annualized returns which includes all distributions; to the best of my knowledge. I find similar performance at M*, which I recall is ONLY NAV returns.
I request that those familiar with these holdings, as several of you also use various charts, to let us know whether they agree with my statement; as I don't want to misguide anyone with data.
SO, @yogibearbull, @Mark , @msf et al. Does anyone find improper results shown at the chart for the 5 year period. The chart includes the COVID period.
5 year chart
Now, the dangerous part. I recall you and your parents have accounts with Fido. Also, whether your parent's account(s) are taxable or not may have some bearing upon choices.
One could use a real simple FBALX and something like Fido's FBND (total bond) with a 50/50 mix. FBALX may be presumed to be about a 70/30 mix and of course FBND being all bonds.
FBALX has an indicated yield of about 1.8% and FBND at a 30 day yield of 5.2%, with 61% at AAA bonds.
FBALX will be subject to draw down with any type of 'melt', but so will most other equity.
Bonds at this point are a form of insurance, not unlike auto or home insurance (want it when you need it). There isn't a hell of a lot right now for making serious money in bonds, especially after taxes (this doesn't apply to traders). But, bonds will likely smile more in the future; as I think yields will come down again; which will provide price increases.
REAL WORLD EXAMPLE of keeping simple can be okay.
We've managed a 529 account since 2006. We set our own investments, being a Vanguard total return domestic equity and Vanguard total return domestic bond indexes at 50/50. The portfolio automatically resets to 50/50 each September. Each index holds several thousand issues. And of course, both holdings traveled through the 2008 and Covid melt periods without portfolio index changes.
LONG TERM results: 15 year, combined, all distributions re-invested, annualized returns = 8.35%
YTD, as of last Saturday = 6.74%
Well, anyway just some jabber for this thread.
WARNING: errors, spelling and omissions. I'm using a head cold product that may cause one to be a bit out of sorts :).
Remain curious,
Catch

Huh. Thanks -- I did not know that .. hadn't looked at REIT taxations in recent years since I generally just avoided them.

The only REIT I like (but don't own yet) is CDP because of its unique client base and facility requirements. (I've been in many of their buildings over the years for work). Getty is another one I've considered as well.
I've held off buying them (and other things b/c other than interest on cash in SGOV, I don't really want more income being taxed at my marginal rate these days -- so I tend to stick with qualified dividends and/or MLP distros.