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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Meketa Sets Up an Infrastructure Fund Targeting Ordinary Investors
    Different twist. This one’s for “ordinary” rather than “regular” investors - :)
    “In the past several years, private-equity firms have begun to raise large amounts of money from retail investors, a group that most alternative-asset managers had typically neglected. Private funds are generally open to people with at least $1 million to invest or an annual salary of $200,000 or more …
    WSJ
    Here’s a YAHOO link / story if you don’t have a WSJ subscription.
  • February MFO is Live
    @dily Hi! Devesh makes the essential point: are you getting what you're paying for? Does the manager offer sufficient value to justify their fees?
    For about 80% of all funds, the answer is "no." Our corporate position has always been that 80% of funds could close with no loss to anybody but the adviser's bottom line. Some funds, however, earn their keep. Devesh's explorations in international investing, for example, have led him to conclude, at least provisionally, that passive does not work in certain international arenas and that at least some managers fully earn their keep.
    I have the same impression with absolute value or absolute return managers. There's an impossibly small pool of managers who are good at security selection but even better at being able to say "sometimes stocks are not worth the price, we're not owning them." That leads them to back out of the market's frothiest phases, which sorely affronts investors who expect ARKK-like upside paired with substantial downside protection. FPA, for example, lost half its AUM over a period of about four years even though it was posting double-digit returns with limited equity exposure. Leuthold likewise.
    My own investment needs - reasonable upside, strong downside protection, the prospect of sleeping well - align with the willingness of Leuthold, FPA and Palm Valley to buy when conditions are good and turn away when they're not. I think that's valuable and worth the ask. I'd love to pay less but with investors relocating to passive competitors, it's not clear that will happen.
    Does that make any sense?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yeah, @Crash. Sectors like Natural Resources are more of a momentum play, I think, than a buy and hold core investment. NR has been a poor investment for over 10 years. It's not PRNEX, it's the sector it invests in.
    Growth of $10,000 over 10 years (Schwab data):
    PRNEX $13,528
    NR category: $13,264
    Compared to the broader US market S&P 500: $32,807
    That's pretty much the equivalent of making about 2.5% a year on your NR investment.
    Anything that isn't broad and diversified will have really good stretches along with really lean years.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC MRFOX has limited brokerage availability in order to control inflows. When it only existed as a separate account, $$$ flowed in heavily when the market turned down.
    Do you or any one here have access to the strategy returns by year (relative to SPY) for years prior to the inception of the fund? Thanks
  • SUNW vs NVDA
    NVDA makes chips. Lots of companies make chips.
    Look at where Intel is today compared to where it was a few years ago.
  • SUNW vs NVDA
    Respecting @stillers request we start a new thread to discuss NVDA etc here goes
    My favorite Dot.com quote from Scott McNeely CEO of SUN
    "At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?"
    NVDA Price to Revenue is three or four times SUNW then
    This quote is from the Felder report
    https://thefelderreport.com/2017/10/26/what-were-you-thinking/
    I would post the stock chart image if I knew how. It is in the link. ( at 72 I must admit I am a bit technologically challenged)
    Bottom line: "a chart of Sun Micro from 1996 to 2006. It started around $5 ran up to that $64 Scott mentions and then fell right back to $5. And you would think this might serve as a cautionary tale for investors today."
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    In case this thread survives as intended, I'll routinely recap what's been posted so as not to lose track of it.
    FWIW, VERY surprising (to me at least) results so far!
    (BOLD added.)
    @stillers: 21.2% - See OP for breakdown
    @Art: Since I have stocks only at this time it's easy. NVDA at 3%.
    @habsui: I put 2.4% of PV into AMZN,MSFT,GOOG over 11 years ago.
    Only sold a little AMZN. So ... about 30%.

    @hank: I stay as far away as I can from them.
    @sma3: about 3%...Mostly MSFT for years. No TSLA or META Both run by lunatics!
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    about 3%
    Mostly MSFT for years. No TSLA or META Both run by lunatics!
  • GQHPX GQG Partners US Quality Div. Income
    GSIHX was mentioned in Morningstar FundInvestor (February 2024).
    "Led by manager Rajiv Jain, Goldman Sachs GQG
    Partners International Opportunities has continued to
    build upon its strong record. Over the 12 months
    ended January 2024, the fund’s 20.6% return crushed
    the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index’s 5.9% return. The
    fund’s performance ranked in the top decile of its
    foreign large-growth Morningstar Category in
    calendar years 2022 and 2023, a rare feat considering
    the drastically different market environments."
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    Thanks @Observant1
    And I wasn’t predicting an immediate precipice. or drawing a direct parallel to 2000. Odds are these stocks will continue to move a lot higher before something breaks. Possibly for years. And it should be noted that even folks who bought tech funds at the top in 2000 made out just fine if they held on for the next 15 years.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    I won’t change your mind, and you won’t change mine, I simply shared an episode from years ago, Personally, I’m standing clear. Lots of other places to invest. It’s your money to do what you want with. A year ago folks were salivating all over about 5% money market funds following a 18% fall in the S&P and a drop of 33% on the NASDAQ the year before. I thought that the clamor for cash was a bit excessive as well.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    "The NASDAQ did not again rise to its 2001 peak until 15 years later”
    I wonder how many of the stocks in the NASDAQ at it's 2001 peak are in it today.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?

    I stay as far away as I can from them.
    Dot-com bubble of 1999-2000
    “During the late 1990s, the values of internet-based stocks rose sharply. As a result, the technology-dominated NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX:^|XIC) surged from 1,000 points in 1995 to more than 5,000 in 2000. But in early 2001, the dot-com stock bubble started to burst. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,048.62 points on March 10. The index would go on to plummet by 76.81% until it reached a low of 1,139.90 points on Oct. 4, 2002. The primary cause of this crash was overvalued internet stocks. Many investors speculated that dot-com companies - even those without revenues - would one day become extremely profitable. As a result, they poured money into the sector, driving up the valuation of every company with "dot-com" in its name. The stock market bubble burst when the Federal Reserve Board tightened its monetary policy, constraining the flow of capital. The NASDAQ did not again rise to its 2001 peak until 15 years later”

    Source
    I have vivid memories of that period. Wasn’t pretty for those that had drunk the Kool Aid.
    Most dangerous words in investing: “This time it’s different …”
  • Trying to pull up some 2008 performance numbers
    Thanks Yogi. People seem to love or hate the fund in its various guises. Morningstar takes aim at it for any number of reasons … Franklin’s Desai in this year’s Barron’s Roundtable recommends it as a top pick. (obviously a biased source ). What she said in Barron’s:
    Desai: - ”I will stick with the Franklin Income fund, which I have recommended in the past. It has a 12-month yield of 5.66% and has paid dividends for 70 years. The fund invests across multiple asset classes. Its current equity allocation, 35%, is among the lowest in its history, and tilted to value names that have lagged behind the broader market. That could provide upside potential.”
    It’s a weird fund in that it seems to have a risk / reward profile closer to an equity fund than an “income” fund. About 30% equities at present and 65% bonds. The bonds appear evenly split between investment grade and BBB and below.
    Added: Not a recommendation. But before buying the OEF discussed above, I’d take a look at less than 1-year old INCM. Same managers. Very similar allocation. ER much lower at .38%
  • GQHPX GQG Partners US Quality Div. Income
    ..the firm's AUM has grown tremendously over the past few years.
    The AUM for GQC funds is actually fairly modest. What skews the average is the GS fund (GSIHX) sub-advised by GQC. Interestingly, there is not a pure GQC fund which mirrors the intent of GSIHX. Reading Jain's commentary, he clearly values stocks which provide a dividend, as he sees this plus the reinvestment of the dividend to be an excellent way to build wealth. This view is confirmed by examining the funds available on the GQC website.
    I own GSIHX in a taxable account as well as an IRA. I may transfer the taxable account into GQJPX. With a TTM distribution of 4.44%, that is competitive with other international funds with a divi focus such as IDVO or SCHY, but with an emphasis on stock selection.
  • Mag 7 Holdings - How Much You Got?
    I put 2.4% of PV into AMZN,MSFT,GOOG over 11 years ago.
    Only sold a little AMZN. So ... about 30%..
  • GQHPX GQG Partners US Quality Div. Income
    Rajiv Jain has performed admirably as an investor.
    I considered investing with GQG but "key person risk" in Mr. Jain is a real concern for me.
    Also, the firm's AUM has grown tremendously over the past few years.
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    Remember, T+3 changed to T+2 only in 2017 (not that long ago). And before T+3 was T+5.
    Anyway, we should welcome T+1 on 5/28/24. This change was announced a couple of years ago, but firms were given a window of time to get ready for it.
    https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/understanding-settlement-cycles
  • T+1 Settlement Starts on 28 May 2024
    About time,, when did computers come on the scene... 1970-80? Only took 40 years to get to T+1
    No kidding. Progress, right? While T+3 was needed when things were paper-based, I suspect it's probably stuck around so long b/c brokerages liked having T+3 and T+2 days to collect interest on unsettled funds? I guess the SEC finally said, "no, this is bad for investors."