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Thanks for that chart @wxman123 . I, like many, am trying to figure out when to move in a substantial way to reenter the market of stocks. This history lesson from 1917 to 1918 is helpful in that regard. It suggests that at some point living with a pandemic becomes the new normal and gets priced into the market. So far I have been nibbling enough to keep the stock % in my portfolio from dropping significantly, but nothing more. I am currently inclined to wait at least until fall to see if there is a new surge in covid-19 cases then before moving back into stocks in a more substantial way.....assuming the initial surge peaks within the next several weeks. That will also provide time to get a sense for peoples willingness to restrict their interactions over an extended period of time as a vaccine is probably not going to be available any time soon.I saw a pretty interesting chart the other day comparing covid-19 with the Spanish flu in terms of market reaction. Nearly identical to this point. With the Spanish flu the market recovered rapidly and well before the virus subsided. If we follow the same pattern now is the time to buy. We may not follow the 2008 model, which was a financial crisis.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-behavior-a-century-ago-suggests-the-worst-could-be-over-for-stocks-if-not-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-19
In this stressful time, which cries for serious and thoughtful information exchange, why MFO is being cluttered with garbage like this is completely beyond my comprehension. It echoes the performance from the very top of the present administration: let's keep on chattering about how everything will be just fine very soon, and keep up all of the ridiculous happy-talk. Unbelievable.
Ego, more than likely. "If I keep on shouting, maybe somebody will notice me". Again, following the example from the top.
Not necessarily. If you send me a polite request (via the mfo mail service) sometime after December 31, 2020 I just might share my 2020 net gain / loss numbers with you. I do compute returns at the end of every year for my own purposes and store them in my data bank. However, what possible value to others such (unsubstantiated) data would provide is a bit of a mystery. Frankly, I think it’s silly to get excited about the last 2-3 months’ performance. Seasoned investors know that such data over short periods like that is pretty meaningless. It’s the aggregate compounded return over a number of years that matters.@hank;you said," I don’t compute my returns daily or report them publicly.
End of this conversation, Derf
Say what? A thirty year old with an interest in investing might have noticed a couple of major shocks growing up. I noticed the end of the silver standard as a mere lad of 8 tender years. Nor was it possible to avoid the impact of inflation.Many investors today have never experienced a bear market in their personal investing and many more hadn’t accumulated significant wealth of their own during the last downturn. The same is true for many professional investors who either have never experienced this type of market environment or did not have as much professional financial responsibility during it. This is a challenging environment for the experienced and even more unsettling for the inexperienced.
Does that mean we should be reading another iteration from Christine Benz, John Rekenthaler's dyspeptic musings, or the latest stock touts?Morningstar’s mission is to empower investor success, and we are committed to weathering this storm with all investors. We are confident that with a sustained focus on long-term investing principles, investors will manage through this crisis just fine.
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