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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    The chance that he meets "ambitious financial and operational goals" is probably about nil.
    Between the ketamine, weed and whatever else he imbibes, to control the depression and ADHD, I have doubts that he even lasts ten years.
    Or he goes the way of David Carradine.
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    Well, let's be fair on that- rockets are notorious for blowing up a fair amount until they finally get everything to work dependably.
    How many times did Werner von Braun’s Saturn V blow up prior to being approved for manned flight?
    Oh. I get the point @Old_Joe. I don’t like Musk’s politics but admire his innovative approaches to automotive, space, communications, tunnel construction and a lot more. He was a co-founder of Pay Pal - which I still use. I had high speed broad band internet two full years earlier than would have were it not for his Starlink project.
    And Von Braun, the architect of NASA’s Saturn V? Former German Nazi. Cut his teeth building the V2 rocket that wrought fear and destruction upon London.
  • Reinvestment Blues,,,, anyone else?
    Can’t view video: They want me to sign in to Google so we can confirm you’re not a bot so they can track me across the internet.
    Never much on holding cash. Presently, have spread the “cash” portion equally among SPAAX, JAAA and AGZD. In no way is that a recommendation. But there are some reasonable alternatives to cash for those with a time span of years rather than days.
    TBUX - risk very low
    NEAR - risk low
    AGZD - risk low
    JAAA - risk moderate
    CVSIX - risk moderate / high
    LPXAX - risk higher*
    IGHG - risk higher
    Disclosure - I own a small stock position in Cohen & Steers
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
    On this day in 1999, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson found that Microsoft
    was a monopoly and the Justice Department initiated plans to break it up.
    The following trading day the stock fell as much as 8.5%.
    Less than two years later, a federal appeals court overturned much of Judge Jackson's ruling.
  • Market timing is just gambling:
    I'm in the 120 minus your age in equities mindset so I have plenty of cash/bonds. I have had a plan for several years now but have deviated a little from it at times. I need to follow it and not deviate as much. Easier said than done when most days you poke around various websites reading financial information but I'm getting better and better at sticking to it.
  • Tesla vote on Thursday
    @a2z
    Great link. I knew that the situation was a bit dire, for TSLA. But, it may be worse than I thought.
    The notion that TSLA shareholders should be excited about robotaxis and Optimus robots is comical. Look at all the exaggeration, delays and outright lies that have emanated from Musk previously. The Cybertruck? An abject failure. I read recently that the only sales of that POS are being forced by Musk onto his own companies, skewing sales results. There are estimated to be 10,000 sitting unsold on lots.
    The cybertaxi , delayed by many years, is nothing like what was promised. Why does anyone trust this guy?
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    morningstar's star rating imo is a dumpster fire.
    VFIAX (vanguard sp500 admiral) is also a 5 star.
    VFFSX is effectively the same pool of money. 4 star.
    "The Morningstar Rating is based on Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return,
    using Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return % Rank for funds in a category.
    Morningstar calculates ratings for the three-, five-, and 10-year periods,
    and then the overall Morningstar Rating is based on a weighted average
    of the available time-period ratings."
    Ten year risk-adjusted returns are an input for the overall M* Rating.
    VFIAX has been in existence for over ten years while VFFSX does not have a 10-year history.
    This may be why VFIAX has 5 stars but VFFSX has only 4 stars.
  • Market timing is just gambling:
    The only thing that I think makes sense intellectually is to
    1) Keep enough in cash or FI so you do not have to sell during a market crash to pay your current bills and anything else you will need in the X number of years you conservatively believe it will take to recover.
    2) many people's recommendation for the duration of the former in #1, I think is much too short. 3 years or five years etc pales in the light of the 11 years it took SP500 to to completely recover from 2000
    3) If you have sold in a panic during previous crashes, you have too much in equities
    4) Diversify and realize your starting valuations are a very good measure of the returns you can expect going forward.`Buying the SP500 today has a low chance of being a good investment in the next five years.
    5) Take the money you need to live on from the best preforming investment. ie if the SP500 is within 5% of it's all time high sell that.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Y...
    Separately, something has give with housing prices:
    "The average age for first-time homebuyers had hit an all-time record high of 40 years old, according to the National Association of Realtors."
    ...
    Haven't you heard? Condos are really cheap in areas where they were overbuilt!
    Problem solved!
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    .... This is a very interesting read from 2015. Mass deportations will absolutely accelerate the problems with population decline.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/02/17/population-decline-and-the-great-economic-reversal/

    What I am fixing to say doesn't change my current concern about the unwinnable situation we are creating for our young people. This is just a random off the cuff incoherent set of thoughts I had after reading the Forbes article and more about the far range future, if there is one.
    ...
    The author of the Forbes article seems to be wringing his hands over demographic worldwide shifts. I am more optimistic, or have been until recently. (I cannot predict outcomes if time moves backward along with decreased fertility rates. I suppose birth control would need to be outlawed completely to keep wages at poverty levels.) Assuming a more forward projected future, I just see positive change for the human experience. Who says the measure of life is a job? Maybe, with refusal to morph the cast system into something more fun and satisfying, meaningless exchanges of work for subsidence might be unchangeable. I want to believe we just have limited vision about the result of our more powerful, sometimes pessimistic and frightening, imagination.
    Coincidentally, this came out in the W.Post today:

    DrVenture said:
    Thanks for that link. It is important to note that the article I linked is 10 years old, so way behind the curve on the technology.
    My main takeaway is that demographics like this are extremely hard (impossible?) to reverse, minus immigration. People having less children, no children, and waiting longer to have children. In our economy, the consumer drives growth. Can that be replaced by AI or robotics? Maybe, it implies higher wages for everyone, due to labor shortfalls?
    Anyhow, you make many good points.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    I asserted FXAIX was (simply) the best of the (plain-vanilla) SP500 indices.
    And I took that to be any fund that Lipper and MFO classify as a plain vanilla S&P 500 Index fund.
    https://lipperleaders.com/index.aspx (Lipper screener; search for S&P 500 funds)
    Let us take your 5y as the period of merit
    I used 5 years only because FDFIX doesn't have a ten year record. When I scanned Lipper's S&P 500 funds rated "5" for total return, I used 10 years unless it wasn't available. And it certainly wouldn't make sense to compare FDIFX's 5 year record with FXAIX's ten year record.
    A - Strategy
    Normally investing at least 80% of assets in common stocks included in the S&P 500 Index, which broadly represents the performance of common stocks publicly traded in the United States.

    So it has the freedom to do anything it wants with the remaining 20% of its portfolio and all it can do is track its index? Of course that's a ridiculous question. As is "one would expect D to outperform waaaaay better than A given its flex, no?"
    For the record, "Flex" is the name that Fidelity gave to its internal use zero ER funds. Nothing more.
    Lending securities to earn income for the fund. ... Also, income from shorting, correct?
    Now you've gone off the deep end. Lots of funds lend securities for income. That's not shorting, just the opposite. They lend their shares so someone else (the borrower) can short the securities. And pay the funds for the privilege. Vanguard has been doing that for decades. That's how, in some years, its fund managed to beat its benchmark. Or are you saying that VFINX / VFIAX is not a plain vanilla S&P index fund?
    The [Vanguard 500] fund has historically used securities lending to generate additional income to offset expenses.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/what-is-vanguard-500-indexs-achilles-heel
    You may not be aware that Fidelity (and Schwab and ...) provide individual investors the same opportunity to generate income. This page describes both how to set that up at Fidelity and more broadly the risks and benefits of security lending.
    https://www.fidelity.com/trading/fully-paid-lending
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Every so often one finds a fund at Vanguard that one can't get elsewhere,
    at least without ponying up a seven (or higher) figure amount.
    Vanguard offers the least expensive I shares for many Pimco mutual funds
    while the more costly I-3 shares are Fidelity's cheapest Pimco share class.
    Pimco I shares were previously available at Fidelity several years ago.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Ah, that chart ends at the end of September.
    The data table has two rows with the funds and columns with performances over various time periods through October 31. It shows FDFIX beating FXAIX by 3 basis points annualized (17.65% vs 17.62%) over five years, 3 basis points annualized (22.69% vs. 22.66%) over three years, and 2 basis points (21.45% vs. 21.43%) over the past year (Nov 2024 - Oct 2025).
    I would not have taken short-term trading into account.
    Agreed. Which is why I would discount the fact that YTD (under a year), through Oct 31, FXAIX has done better (same table).
    Best performance is to be inferred in this forum;
    Similarly, in this forum one expects to see higher min funds discussed periodically. Even $1M min funds (e.g. Schwab MMF Ultra shares) get a shoutout from time to time.
    We're not talking about sector funds or alternative investments here. There are more than a few participants here who likely could handle a core investment of $100K.
    For example, FD1000 wrote that his SIL, investing 50/50 in S&P 500 and QQQ can retire now. That sounds like someone who has at least $100K invested in the S&P 500. And masterd wrote "VOO and QQQ (or QQQM) are the only funds I would purchase".
    I don't know how to change the endpoint of the Fido comparison performance chart to get it end yesterday close of trading. Will investigate.
    I am having trouble in any case delving USPRX,

    Try here: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fdfix/chart
    Enter the tickers for FXAIX and USPRX one at a time in the "Compare" box. One can compare the three funds' total returns over the lifetime of FDFIX by setting the timeframe to max and setting the frequency to daily.
    Through Nov 3:
    FDFIX: 234.8558%, FXAIX: 234.6069%, USPRX: 236.8972%
    To compare FXAIX and USPRX over USPRX's lifetime, you can do the same thing, only using USPRX's M* chart:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/usprx/chart
    Through Nov. 3:
    USPRX: 1685.5348%, FXAIX: 1659.6410%
    another 2-3 showed [USPRX] had not been around for 5y
    In early Q2 2023, the USAA Mutual Funds will be rebranded as Victory Funds. There will be no changes to the funds’ investment objectives, the investment teams managing the funds or their respective investment processes due to the change in the product branding, and there is no action required on the part of current investors. The Ticker symbols and Cusips are not changing.
    https://vcm.com/assets/fund-docs/Mutual Funds Planned Name Changes Feb 23 2023 Final.pdf
    USAA Asset Management was sold to Victory Capital in 2018-2019.
    https://ir.vcm.com/news/news-details/2019/Victory-Capital-Completes-Acquisition-of-USAA-Asset-Management-Company/default.aspx
  • Schwab: Shake Off Emotions and Control your Portfolio
    @FD1000: You came here, took advantage of the freedom and financial opportunities of OUR country, made your money, and now root for the destruction of the very country that gave you so much.
    PLEASE GO BACK WHEREVER YOU CAME FROM. JUST TAKE YOUR DAMNED MONEY AND GO.
    Every day, you continue to show your TDS and disrespect toward other posters. Honestly, you should be banned from this site.
    I came to this country legally because I believe it’s the best in the world. I have just as much right to be here as you do — after all, someone in your family was an immigrant at some point, too.
    If you dislike the current administration, you’re free to leave. Europe is waiting for you.
    IMO, the Biden administration was the worst in the last several decades, but during that time, I didn’t insult other posters, use foul language, or lose my composure — unlike you, who has done so daily for years, especially this year.
    Power changes hands between parties; that’s how democracy works. As Obama once said, “Elections have consequences.”
    And once again, your post is off-topic — just like many of your others — yet I’ve remained civil throughout. It’s clear you don’t know me at all, but that hasn’t stopped you from expressing unwarranted hostility.
    Lastly, if you mainly want to discuss politics, why not do so on a political site instead of an investment forum?
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    Last week, the S&P 500's multiple of sales was at its highest level ever —
    including the peak of the dot-com bubble.
    The Shiller P/E¹ recently breached 40 for only the second time.
    This portends meager S&P 500 returns in the coming years.
    https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-gjyktld-duklntldl-r/
    ¹ The Shiller P/E isn't a useful timing tool and can remain elevated for a long time.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    You can wait until November to buy your discounted Halloween candy, but you still have to pony up. Prices are scary high.
    Get ready to buy just "2 dolls instead of 30" this XMAS.
    The average new car price in the US surpassed $50,000 for the first time in September 2025.
    Separately, something has give with housing prices:
    "The average age for first-time homebuyers had hit an all-time record high of 40 years old, according to the National Association of Realtors."
    It just ain't right.
    But rest assured, that nasty East Wing demolition was completely necessary. Completely. Meanwhile the Epstein fiasco was buried somewhere in the rubble.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    the best, FXAIX
    The best for you and undeniably one of the best. But simply the best, better than all the rest?
    ...
    ETFs offer greater accessibility at possibly lower trading cost (bid/ask spread vs. TF at many non-Fidelity brokerages). Institutional investors and traders may have difficulty using FXAIX with its restriction of two round trips within 90 days (trading rights are suspended if this is exceeded).
    In terms of raw performance, FXAIX is arguably not even the best. Fidelity's Flex fund FDFIX, used by Fidelity's robo advisor, has a better 5 year return (it hasn't been around for 10 years yet). On the DIY front, USPRX ($100K min) has a better 10 year return. Though technically not an S&P 500 fund, Lipper includes it in its S&P500 index category.
    Different strokes for different folks. "Best" here can be mathematically quantified by constructing ...
    Best performance is to be inferred in this forum; apologies for those misled.
    You appear to have misread your own links and chart re FDFIX, which lags FXAIX a couple bucks over 5y, so far as I can see using Chrome for the Fido research chart comparison page. Ah, that chart ends at the end of September. So I assume FDFIX somehow pulled ahead the last 5 weeks, correct? I don't know how to change the endpoint of the Fido comparison performance chart to get it to stop yesterday close of trading. Will investigate.
    And of course FXAIX outperforms those two major ETFs nontrivially, by a few hundred, over that period.
    Even if those two ETFs had done better, I would not have taken short-term trading into account. And for a stickler I should have written best-performing, yes. Finally, I would of course not have included a $100k min fund, but I am having trouble in any case delving USPRX, as over a half-dozen sites show it grew only into the ~$18,000s over the last 5y, and another 2-3 showed it had not been around for 5y.
  • Why buy the S&P 500?
    I was looking at our taxable accounts, and noticing the returns on our various tech-sector funds, and so I asked myself, why even buy the S&P 500 these days--not that I am actually in the market for adding much of anything to the taxable at this point.
    If I was 20-30 years younger, why not just buy a tech fund--or four in the case of my taxable (because I like baskets)--and rearrange the rest of the deck chairs to suit my druthers, i.e., risk tolerance?
    It is pretty much what I do. I own the S&P for its wide exposure. But I juice returns with LCG, tech and others as the momentum dictates. I was more heavily allocating to sectors, until approximately 2023, when the S&P began to outperform nearly everything else. So, I shifted more assets in that direction.
    My 60/40 portfolio is at 17% YTD. Some of that "40" is Pimco CEFs and there is a LOT of cash. So, not a "normal" 60/40 portfolio of S&P and treasuries. Admittedly, certain individual holdings have done a lot of the heavy lifting this year: WBD, CEG, NOK, TSM, RTX, JNJ, PRSCX. When I X-ray my total portfolio to account for mutual fund compositions, NVDA is now my largest holding, with FAANGs basically trailing right behind.
  • Schwab: Shake Off Emotions and Control your Portfolio
    @crash
    Ignore injustice, masked gov't Gestapo violence, the ethically rudderless Fuhrer, etc.
    These are the very reasons why I think the US's time as a global leader is limited. We have destroyed any credibility we had with the rest of the world who counted on us for the Rule of Law, regulations that were enforced and not at one man's whim transparent credit markets and an independent Federal Reserve.
    We are close to a Government like China where the only thing that counts is one man's daily ideas. At least in China you can count on Xi to do what is generally in the long term interest of the party. here all you get is what is in Trump's interest.
    You may be correct. To maintain the world's respect, we need to display justice and ethics. To have the respect of the authoritarian elements, we only need trump. I have heard it said that he doesn't care how this turns out, as he expects to die soon. He even muses about not "making it into Heaven". Not a big "believer", but on this, I agree.
    It will take years for the full impact of his destructive efforts to materialize. His supporters will use that "distance" to disassociate the resulting problems from his actions and their choices.
  • Schwab: Shake Off Emotions and Control your Portfolio
    @MikeW
    People who call the polio vaccine, elimination of congenital Rubella, almost complete elimination of massive strokes because of VA funded research into anti-coagulation and atrial fibrillation "boring" are incredibly misinformed, and apparently do not want to learn anything.
    A letter I just sent into the editor of a local paper
    To The Editor
    In 40 years of primary care medical practice all of my patients with metastatic melanoma died. Two good friends also developed it. One is considered cured today, only because of research that Trump’s budget would cut.
    Anne W had melanoma in 1987, treated with the then newest therapy, interferon. Studies showed six months average survival (an increase). An occasional patient lived 2 or 3 years. Unfortunately, Anne did not.
    In 2021, another friend WJ, was treated with Ipilimuab and Nivolumab, new monoclonal antibodies, and is now considered cured. A study this year found these drugs increased average survival to at least 10 years (and still counting).
    Government funded National Institutes of Health research was responsible for this dramatic difference. I have many other examples of amazingly improved treatments of other cancers, heart disease, stokes, and diabetes during my 40 years of medical practice. Millions of Americans have survived and been cured of hundreds of other diseases, due to NIH research.
    Trump wants to cut the NIH budget by 40% to $29 Billion, with grants approved by politicians, not scientists. But ICE gets $90 Billion! (Ironically, Russell Voight, Trump’s budget director’s young daughter is alive today because of an NIH cystic fibrosis cure.)
    “DOGE” eliminated 50% of WJ’s oncologist’s melanoma research, and he may leave the country.
    When will the public realize our lives are threatened by Trump’s anti-science policies and budget cuts and demand they stop?