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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warn FA manager
    Heartland Advisors isn't quite the place I'd go for insight into the bond market. Remember that Will's dad (William J. Nasgovitz), CEO and controlling shareholder at the time, settled with the SEC for mispricing two muni bond funds. As a result of the mispricing, the funds' NAVs dropped by 69.4% and 44% in a single day.
    https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
    https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/23/business/sec-freezes-the-assets-of-three-heartland-funds.html
    Some corporations have their act together a bit better than Heartland (which got out of the bond fund business around 2003). Here's S&P's report from six months ago entitled U.S. Refinancing Study--$4.88 Trillion Of Rated Corporate Debt Is Scheduled To Mature Through 2023
    https://www.allnews.ch/sites/default/files/files/20180822_SP_US-Refinancing-Study-Rated-Corporate-Debt.pdf
    Maturities are set to rise above $1 trillion annually in 2021 and 2022, up from $721 billion in 2019. While this is a substantial amount of debt, credit markets in the U.S. have shown sufficient depth and demand for corporate credit to facilitate companies' issuance of new debt to manage pending maturities. ...
    While the maturity wall steepens as debt mounts in 2021 and 2022, we expect that companies will issue new debt between now and then, and that the amount of debt maturing in those years will decline in the intervening years.
    It's a solid 17 page report, covering different grades of bonds, financial and non-financial corporate. If the subject is of interest, this is a good place to start.
  • A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warn FA manager
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-3-trillion-tsunami-is-about-to-wash-over-the-stock-market-warns-fund-manager-2019-02-20
    "Will Nasgovitz, who oversees about $1.3 billion in assets as the chief executive of Heartland Advisors, isn’t calling for a “full blown financial crisis,” but, with trillions in corporate debt coming due in the coming years, the industry veteran’s not exactly predicting smooth sailing in the stock market, either."
    eventually a crash will occur ...the 3 trillion dollars ?! Answer is when
    It's like crying wolf
  • MRFOX
    That page looks okay as far as it goes, but it's about as clear as mud if you don't already have an idea of how the industry is organized.
    For example:
    "The Dual Registered channel includes RIAs who are dually licensed as both a registered investment advisor and a registered representative". While it describes RIAs, nowhere else does it give a clue what a registered rep is.
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/registeredrepresentative.asp
    "RIA[s] ... access[] mutual funds ... via supermarket platforms such as Schwab, Fidelity ..." What's a supermarket platform and how does it differ from the Discount Channel it describes elsewhere? (I think they're the same thing, though discount brokerages will cut different deals for individual investors and for RIAs.)
    "First Clearing ... Clearing Firm (categorized under Wirehouse due to affiliation with
    Wells Fargo)". Yet National Financial Services LLC, which is not merely affiliated with Fidelity Brokerage, but is a wholly owned subsidiary of FMR, is not categorized as a Wirehouse. (Nor is Schwab, which it also classifies as a clearing firm.)
    It's not easy to sort out the pieces, so it's not surprising to see sites get tangled up in trying to classify interrelated firms. (I claim only the most basic and incomplete sense of what the pieces are.)
  • MRFOX
    Heigh ho.
    "SMA" is shorthand for "separately managed account." Often an adviser will have a strategy (EM small cap value) that will manifest itself in a bunch of places; it might be the basis of their mutual fund but they might, separate from that, have some rich guy for whom they manage $10 million. They could offer to invest the $10 million for him in EM small cap value stocks, using the same discipline that's in the mutual fund but not the same investments. The m.f. might have invested in some Brazilian microcap in 2000 that's now worth $10 billion; the fund is letting a winning investment ride but would not consider buying it today. So the new separately managed account would have the same strategy and discipline, different fee structures and some but not all of the same investments.
    Wirehouses (an antiquated term from the days when a brokerage would have a private, direct phone line - or wire - to a major bank) are the huge, integrated financial firms like Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, Merrill Lynch, UBS, and Wells Fargo. Many of the online brokerages are, technically, clearing firms.
    For now, at least, it looks like Marshfield is available only by directly investing through Marshfield.
    Does that help?
  • How big must your nest egg be?
    Just a point of clarification:
    The author cited in the linked article is William J. Bernstein. From Wikipedia: “William J. Bernstein (born 1948) is an American financial theorist and neurologist. His research is in the field of modern portfolio theory and he has published books for individual investors who wish to manage their own equity portfolios. He lives in Portland, Oregon. His bestselling books include The Birth of Plenty and A Splendid Exchange”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Bernstein
    I at first incorrectly assumed the reference was to Richard Bernstein who has been around the block a few times at some of the big N.Y. investment banks and who appeared occasionally on Louis Rukeyser’s legendary Wall Street Week. Here’s a CNBC blurb on Richard Bernstein: https://www.cnbc.com/richard-bernstein/
    Don’t know anything about William. Richard, however, wasn’t the sharpest blade in Rukeyser’s otherwise highly respected tool box. If he told me turn right I’d probably turn left.
  • How big must your nest egg be?
    @Mark- Yeah. Well, if I had the depth of resource structure that Mr. Buffett has, I'd go with his plan too. By resource structure, I don't mean the actual value of the holdings- I mean the expert financial information and manipulation resources which Mr. Buffet, his wife, and estate have access to.
  • How big must your nest egg be?
    Down to about 1%. At 80 and with potential health issues, I am not optimistic about the time-frame likely needed to hunker down through the next downturn and then back up the other side. My wife has no interest in the financial affairs, other than appreciating not having to worry about them. If I do last long enough to survive the next downturn, I'm well positioned to quickly reinvest as things start to move up again.
  • Schwab Pulls Trigger On Commission-Free ETF Price War–And Fidelity Fires Back
    FYI: (This is a follow up article.)
    Fidelity Investments has expanded its platform to let loose a new volley of more than 500 commission-free ETFs and as of February 28, 2019, additional iShares ETFs.
    One hour later, Schwab ETF OneSource one-upped competitor Fidelity by announcing it was doubling its lineup of commission-free ETFs to 503 in 79 Morningstar categories, and by adding 90 iShares ETFs to its offerings, starting one day after Fidelity, on March 1, 2019.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/fidelity-pulls-trigger-on-commission-free-etf-price-war--and-schwab-fires-back-43296.html?print
    Schwab Website:
    https://pressroom.aboutschwab.com/press-release/corporate-and-financial-news/schwab-etf-onesource-doubles-lineup-500-commission-free-e
  • Fidelity Expands Commission-Free Platform To Over 500 ETFs
    FYI: On the heels of rewriting the rules of investing through its
    groundbreaking ZERO offering, Fidelity Investments®, one of the largest financial service providers with
    $6.7 trillion in total client assets, today announced the expansion of its commission-free exchange traded
    fund (ETF) platform for individual investors and advisors to include more than 500 ETFs. The move will
    offer clients access to high-quality, industry-leading ETFs and further exemplifies Fidelity’s ongoing
    commitment to providing the best overall value in the industry. Fidelity has more than $380 billion in
    ETF assets under administration, up nearly 80% over the last three years.1
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/press-release/Fidelity-Expands-Commission-Free-ETF-Lineup_021219.pdf
  • HOBEX
    Yes, I remember when Kinder Morgan MLP shareholders received significant income in taxable and non-taxable accounts when the MLPs were converted into Kinder Morgan stock.
    Here is a reminder of that incident:
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/010516/mlp-investors-hit-surprise-tax-bill-ira-income.asp
    Here is a link for Cramer on the same issue:
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/11544379/1/cramer-on-retirement-can-master-limited-partnerships-hurt-your-ira.html
  • Time for Muni's
    @mcmarcasco - If you're asking about which 'particular one' to buy then that will depend on your own personal financial situation. I know, a copout, but I hesitate to go there.
    If you're looking for schooling on CEF's there are plenty of 101 course sites:
    http://guides.wsj.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-a-closed-end-fund/
    to start with or just Google "how to invest in CEF's"
    I highly recommend the M* 'Closed-End Funds' discussion board FWIW
  • True "Value" Funds Hard to Find
    The Hulbert article offers the following list of value stocks for the DIYer who can't find a fund for the job:
    • Bank OZK OZK 3.55% (OZK)
    • Brighthouse Financial BHF -0.83% (BHF)
    • Capital One Financial COF 0.63% (COF)
    • Citigroup C 0.61% (C)
    • Goldman Sachs GS 0.60% (GS)
    • Gulfport Energy GPOR -0.12% (GPOR)
    • Mallinckrodt MNK -0.67% PLC (MNK)
    • New York Community Bancorp (NYCB)
    • PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust PMT 1.24% (PMT)
    Financial services figure prominently. OAKBX has a few, but Citigroup is the only one in common.
  • True "Value" Funds Hard to Find
    I deserted OAKBX late in 2018 after a near 15-year marriage. It got ravaged during the December market rout. It is, of course, supposed to be a value fund. BTW - It’s been hot ever since I left. :)
    Interested what folks think of these top 25 holdings. Is that fund still true to its value roots, or has it morphed into something else? Thanks for any observations.
    Symbol Name % Weight
    GM General Motors Co 4.95%
    BAC Bank of America Corporation 4.80%
    TEL TE Connectivity Ltd 3.93%
    -- United States Treasury Notes 1.25%
    MA Mastercard Inc A 3.11%
    NSRGY Nestle SA ADR 2.98%
    CVS CVS Health Corp 2.58%
    UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc 2.36%
    DEO Diageo PLC ADR 2.26%
    GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C 2.18%
    PM Philip Morris International Inc 2.12%
    -- United States Treasury Notes 2.12%
    C Citigroup Inc 1.82%
    CHTR Charter Communications Inc A. 1.78%
    -- United States Treasury Notes 1.75%
    FL Foot Locker Inc 1.73%
    ORCL Oracle Corp 1.69%
    ALLY Ally Financial Inc 1.67%
    BWA BorgWarner Inc 1.63%
    -- United States Treasury Notes 2.38%
    -- United States Treasury Notes 1.62%
    NOV National Oilwell Varco Inc 1.41%
    LEA Lear Corp 1.30%
    GLEN Glencore PLC 1.30%
    AIG American International Group Inc. 1.23%
    Source: https://ycharts.com/mutual_funds/M:OAKBX/holdings
  • David Snowball's February Commentary Is Now Available
    >> the only way for us to deal with the mountain of government debt at this point will be to inflate our way out of it.
    Studzinski has lots of quaint bearish notions, but in this matter he really oughtta study up mo and better, Blanchard e.g., if he is going to be a working financial columnist.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/01/10/very-good-economic-idea-may-be-about-replace-very-bad-one/
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/opinion/melting-snowballs-and-the-winter-of-debt.html
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/10/opinion/united-states-economy-public-debt.html
    https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html
  • Longleaf Partners Fund to reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806636/000119312519022093/d678081d497.htm
    497 1 d678081d497.htm 497
    LONGLEAF PARTNERS FUNDS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 30, 2019
    TO PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2018
    References to Longleaf Partners Fund in the Table of Contents and on page 23 of the Prospectus should now indicate the Fund is open to new investors.
    LONGLEAF PARTNERS FUNDS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JANUARY 9, 2019
    TO PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2018
    Effective January 1, 2019, Ross Glotzbach became CEO of Southeastern Asset Management, Inc. (“Southeastern”) and a Portfolio Manager of Longleaf Partners Global Fund. The Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information should be updated accordingly. Mason Hawkins remains Chairman of Southeastern and a Portfolio Manager of all Longleaf Partners Funds.
    On page 30, under Purchases and Redemption through Brokerage Firms and Other Authorized Intermediaries:
    A broker may charge a commission to its customers on transactions in Fund shares, provided the broker acts solely on an agency basis for its customer and does not receive any distribution related payment in connection with the transaction.
    LONGLEAF PARTNERS FUNDS TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 1, 2018
    TO PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2018
    Under the Additional Investments section on page 26:
    Online Transactions: Once you have opened an account, the Fund’s website, longleafpartners.com, can be used to make subsequent purchases. Choose “Account Log In” and follow the instructions. Payment for shares purchased online may be made only through an ACH debit of your bank account of record. Only bank accounts held at US financial institutions that are ACH members can be used for online transactions. Online transactions are subject to the same minimums, maximums, and investment restrictions as other transaction methods.
    When you buy or sell shares over the Internet, you agree that the Longleaf Partners Funds are not liable for following instructions believed to be genuine. The Funds use certain procedures to confirm that your instructions are genuine.
    Under How to Redeem Shares on page 27:
    Online Transactions: Once you have opened an account, the Fund’s website, longleafpartners.com, can be used to make redemptions and exchanges. Choose “Account Log In” and follow the instructions. Redemptions will be paid only by check, wire, or ACH transfer and only to the address or bank account of record. Only bank accounts held at US financial institutions that are ACH members can be used for online transactions. Online transactions are subject to the same minimums, maximums, and investment restrictions as other transaction methods. Daily online redemptions are limited to $100,000 per Fund.
    When you buy or sell shares over the Internet, you agree that the Longleaf Partners Funds are not liable for following instructions believed to be genuine. The Funds use certain procedures to confirm that your instructions are genuine.
    LONGLEAF PARTNERS FUNDS®
    ADVISED BY SOUTHEASTERN ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.
    6410 Poplar Avenue, Suite 900
    Memphis, TN 38119
  • M*: The Past Decade's Worst Alternative Investments
    FYI: Retail alternative-investment funds, practically speaking, are 10 years old. Alternatives have long been in institutional portfolios, but they attracted little attention from retail buyers before the 2008 financial crash. After the disaster, however, the people craved protection, and the fund companies responded. Launching a spate of alternatives funds, they marketed the strategy hard.
    The results, so far, have not been good. The problem is not just that the insurance was sold after the fire--a customary practice in investment management--but also that many of the alternatives have been flat-out losers. Even if U.S. stocks hadn't compounded by 13% annually during the decade of 2009 through 2018, those funds would have been poor choices.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/909394/the-past-decades-worst-alternative-investments.html
  • The Death Of The Fund — And What Comes Next
    Hard to know what to say here. I don't find these arguments especially compelling.
    I mean, yes, we know AI is here and it's going to take over the world. I don't see AI customization creating 150mm separate portfolios for 150mm separate retail investors, but maybe I'm missing the author's point.
    Financial advisors are already using "really, really, really smart" software to make allocations for clients.
    Now, whether or not all fund companies go AI, is another matter...is TROW or Fidelity, for example, going to largely do away with its human analysts in 10 years or so?
  • The Death Of The Fund — And What Comes Next
    FYI: In the next few years, the entire rationale for investing via funds will dissolve. Advances in technology have transformed industry cost structures. Absent the need to pool assets for volume discounts, advisers and relationship managers can skip the one-size-fits-all cookie-cutter vehicles. Instead, financial advisers will use software to truly customize portfolios, resulting in a more engaged and loyal client base.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=1mdQXPjrJ5e9jwTp9KfgDA&q=Death+Of+The+Fund+&+What+Comes+Next+&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Death+Of+The+Fund+&+What+Comes+Next+&gs_l=psy-ab.3..33i22i29i30.3480.8036..9172...0.0..1.164.1760.14j5......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0..33i299j33i160.Ors8USFYOpk
  • Mark Hulbert: Dow Needs To Give Back Some Gains Before Stocks See Another Big Leg Up
    FYI: The Dow Theory is still flashing a “sell” signal. Before this indicator can turn bullish again, the rally that has taken the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost straight up since its Dec. 24 low must end.
    That’s why bullishly predisposed Dow Theorists should be hoping for a market pullback.
    The Dow Theory is the oldest stock-market timing system in widespread use today. It was created by William Peter Hamilton, the editor of the Wall Street Journal in the first decades of the 20th Century. Its popularity is reason alone to pay close attention, since a buy signal presumably would unleash a wave of new buying in the stock market.
    The Dow Theory is also worth following because its long-term track record is enviable. This has been confirmed not only by my Hulbert Financial Digest tracking of Dow Theory newsletters such as TheDowTheory.com (edited by Jack Schannep) and Dow Theory Forecasts (edited by Richard Moroney), but also by academic studies.
    Though individual Dow Theorists disagree on the specifics of how to apply the Dow Theory in any particular situation, there is a broad consensus on what it takes to generate a buy signal:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-needs-to-give-back-some-gains-before-stocks-see-another-big-leg-up-2019-01-25/print
  • Merrill Edge not very mutual fund friendly
    Yup, they are oddly unsophisticated, and in important ways, I think.
    If ML were not hardwired w/ BoA (where we have checking / savings / mortgage / heloc / 3% credit card sort of), and above all did not have free trading, and did not pay so much for accounts transferred into them (I guess the same as other places, turns out), I would move everything back to Fido.
    Also, fwiw, ML's accounts aggregator, My Financial Picture, is invariably accurate, while Fido's has been sketchy for about a decade, even as they changed from yodlee to other data feeds, and earnestly promise improvement every other month. I have a dozen emails about FullView and My Portfolio update problems. Still laggard and/or wrong, almost every night.
    There is worse, too, in just trying to ascertain whether you can buy a given fund --- it shows availability right up to the moment you make the actual purchase attempt. And the capper for me is their restriction list, already covered in this forum, notably for me CAPE unavailability.