Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
July MFO Ratings & Flows Posted The year turned out pretty good! The Great Normalization Bull is now in its 15th month. And, like has happened with each bull market for the past 100 years, the S&P 500 has recovered all previous drawdown and sits at a new all-time high, month-ending December.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! @hankSince we've moved cash we had parked in a MM and a couple bond funds to TRP Cap App & Income (PRCFX), we are back to 95% with DG. 17
years and counting. Whenever I've moved some dollars away from DG through the
years it has always cost me money.
Falling knife, are you willing to get cut ! That’s where I’ve landed after
years of “over analyzing” / “over allocating”. Run a 10-part portfolio
@10% each. Various cash holdings constitute 10%. Another part consists of 3 individual stocks. The other 8 are single funds (OEMF, CEF, ETF).
Recently pitched a 10% weighted aggressive bond fund & replaced it with an investment grade short term fund. Had I
@rforno’s money, a move like that might have sent “ripples” through the markets!
T Rowe Price outflows Your pie charts seem to confirm my view that high foreign investments have hurt its returns. TRPBX’s foreign holdings are much higher than FBALX. I don’t shun foreign investments, but will prefer to use dedicated foreign funds from now on, particularly since TRP’s foreign funds are so weak. After I sold TRPBX in my Roth IRA, I reinvested in FBALX plus my other TRP stock funds (TRMCX, TRVLX and PRDMX). Also put some of money in Fidelity’s FIVFX, which has outperformed TRP foreign funds. I’m planning to do a Roth conversion with part of the ARTKX shares in my regular IRA, and will put the remaining funds in that. I’m not comfortable holding 20% of the total assets of my Roth IRA in foreign stocks plus another 10-15% in foreign bonds, particularly given the higher risk and lower returns of foreign markets for many years.
T Rowe Price outflows I also tend to hold funds for quite some time, because funds have their own cycles and often when one fund underperforms another for some time, the pattern subsequently reverses.
Looking at the calendar year percentile rankings, one could say that it's not so much that TRPBX got worse as that it tended to be okay but not great. Or as rforno put it, "kind of 'meh'".
The fund had two bad
years, 2021 and 2022 (and FBALX had an even worse record in 2022). These weigh heavily on its three year performance and five year performance. Those two
years aside, its yearly performances were typically top third, just.
Even going back to your first decade with these funds (2003-2012), TRPBX
barely outpaced FBALX, 8.23% to 8.21%.
I suspect that the fraction of equity that's invested abroad hasn't shifted much in decades. A fund may be permitted to make major allocation changes without ever taking advantage of that freedom. Not worth going back past 2017, though, because earlier annual reports don't seem to contain that information.
Sept 2023 (
M*): 32% foreign (19.01%/59.60%)
May 2022 (
annual report): 36% foreign (21%/59%)

May 2021 (
annual report): 34% foreign (20%/59%)

May 2020 (
annual report): 34% foreign (21%/62%)

May 2019 (
annual report): 35% foreign (20%/57%)

May 2018 (
annual report): 36% foreign (21%/58%)

The 2017 annual report notes that T. Rowe Price made several changes to what were then called the Personal Strategy Funds.
On October 1, 2016, we introduced three new underlying investment strategies to the Personal Strategy Funds. ... The changes include a new allocation to alternatives through a hedge fund-of-funds, as well as initiating an investment in the T. Rowe Price Dynamic Global Bond Fund and an equity index option strategy.
T Rowe Price outflows @msfYou are correct that TRPBX slightly outperformed FBALX by about 1.1% in 2022.
However, over the following time periods, FBALX outperformed TRPBX annualized by this much:
1 year, 6.7%
3
years, 4.1%
5
years, 4.2%
10
years, 2.2%
Put another way, $10,000 invested in FBALX ten
years ago would be worth $23,262, compared to $17,743 with TRPBX. Since I had considerably more money invested in both funds over the past 10
years, the value of my FBALX holdings have increased by tens of thousands of dollars more than TRPBX — particularly since I’ve owned both funds for more than 20
years (until selling TRPBX earlier this year.)
Anyway, it’s my fault for sticking with TRP allocation funds for so long. They have underperformed
for a while, but I’m a patient buy-and-hold investor and kept expecting things to change. They did, but unfortunately for the worse.
T Rowe Price outflows FWIW -
RPGAX was one of my favorite funds when I invested directly with TRP. But haven’t owned or looked at it since. ISTM its performance was decent from inception on to about 2020 when I departed. I liked the idea of allocating approximately 10% to the Blackstone hedge fund. But that’s just me - always looking for a way to hedge the downside or step to a different drummer. True - the Blackstone holding was hard to justify on an expense basis. And it generally detracted from performance over those years. Still - I’m always looking for hedges - and that was the purpose.
T Rowe Price outflows TRP’s foreign stock funds have never performed very well, with a few exceptions … .
I’d agree with that.
Lipper loves TRRIX - 5's across the board (except for tax efficiency)
I pay a lot of attention to Lipper’s ratings. BTW - M* gives TRRIX a “silver” (2nd highest) rating which ain’t too shabby either. I like TRRIX too - or wouldn’t have 10% of portfolio devoted to it. Hard to beat the .49% ER for a pretty diverse basket of managed funds.
That said… No way should that fund have fell over 13% in 2022. Especially -
@msf will recall - that over the decades (far back as before the turn of the century) one commonly lauded aspect of TRP was their skill at allocating among different assets. They always seemed to have an edge in that one area. I’ve heard it here on this board over the
years and that conformed to my own view until recently. Lose that edge and a good part of the reason for investing with them is gone.
BYW - It appears they’ve recently added a bit of their Dynamic Income fund to the TRRIX fixed income mix. That fund uses bond shorts to hedge against rising rates. We’ll see how it all works out.
T Rowe Price outflows TRP certainly didn’t market or describe TRPBX as a global allocation fund when I started investing in it, although they’ve always had more foreign holdings than most balanced funds. If it’s a global allocation fund, then why did they create RPGAX? It’s my impression that they’ve increased foreign investments over the years. However, they have flexibility to increase or decrease foreign investments, so why do they keep pouring money into areas that aren’t panning out?. Finally, TRP’s foreign stock funds have never performed very well, with a few exceptions. I’ve also invested in Spectrum International (PSILX), which invests in a range of TRP foreign funds, and it has been a poor performer despite a low expense ratio.
A few differences I’ve noticed between TRP and Fidelity. If a Fidelity fund performs poorly, they replace or change the management team. If a Fidelity fund performs well, they generally don’t close it to their investors (although they have done so for limited time periods). Most Fidelity funds have the flexibility to invest in foreign assets, but they generally don’t load up on them unless the fund is clearly designated as global or international. FLPSX is the rare exception but it has continued to perform well despite holding a lot of foreign stocks.
FMSDX Fidelity Multi-Asset Income Fund From a non-expert corner. Not related to FMSDX. …
Be a bit careful if looking at funds (of any category) holding a lot of income-producing stocks. Oh - It’s a great sector / always has been - except that it looks like it’s been “hot as nails” for several years now. (Check out PRFDX.) The income producers can and do run in cycles.
I’ve seen Yogi’s description and it does not appear FMSDX is riding that wave - perversely, that might be a good sign. If you find something similar that’s wildly outperforming, take a look at the equity component before you leap.
I don’t own any Fidelity funds, but have been very impressed by the ones I’ve looked at. Steady performers, often with very low ERs.