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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What’s Happened To The Stock Market After Every Midterm Election Since World War II
    FYI: Tuesday is going to be a crucial day for the stock market. Are you prepared?
    If the polls are correct, President Donald Trump and the Republicans are in big trouble. There’s an 86% chance Democrats will seize control of the House of Representatives, according to statistical-analysis firm FiveThirtyEight.
    This is causing big-time anxiety for investors who’ve enjoyed the 28% stock market rally since Trump took office. No matter what you think of Trump, his reign as president has been great for stocks. But as the election has drawn closer, the market has fallen apart.
    The S&P 500 closed out October with a 7% monthly drop, nearly its worst month since the financial crisis. So what could happen this month—and the months ahead?
    Few topics stir emotion in America like politics. Many perfectly reasonable people lose the ability to think straight when they hear the name “Trump.” As I always said at RiskHedge, politics and investing don’t mix. Investor Warren Buffett often says: “If you mix politics and investing, you’re making a big mistake.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/whats-happened-to-the-stock-market-after-every-midterm-election-since-world-war-ii-1541523813?mod=hp_DAY_3
  • Leuthold: stay defensive
    Hi @AndyJ
    Thank you for the reference (St. Louis Fed.), and @David_Snowball for the Leuthold "info" and posting same.
    The "liquidity" .................an area I attempt to ascertain and distinguish from other items within the financial world.
    We investors live within a financial world; were aside from a boatload of money sloshing about in places known and unknown to us; must also have a full faith in the system that the quality of money between/among parties does not fall apart and become a problem of liquidity. My "investors" reference is not just related to the folks here; but must also include most of the big kids, too. They are subject to having their investment pants pulled down, too.
    The full faith in the system is very critical, IMHO; and as we have witnessed in the past, can develop flaws and cracks from real reasons which then may begin a massive lost of faith that monetary functions can be maintained in some form of civil fashion and not cause great stress to the system.
    Indebtedness is global; but relative to this country, as you noted; the debt piles are so large from a corporate measure, and the debt pile continues down into the public sector.
    One example, the auto companies, in their advertising; do everything possible to pull in the "sub-prime" customer. Hey, folks; we can help you afford that $55k truck you're wanting. Okay, this will end well, eh? Too many in our society have no mental discipline for a budget and the spending involved with same. A recent report indicates the following for the regular folks:
    ---average American credit card debt = $6,375, average household = $17,000 and average annual credit card interest = $1,300.
    None of this bodes well at some point down the road.
    I continue to watch the bond side of money for cracks in the system, as I feel this could be the problem area that places cracks into the equity side.
    Sadly, I/we are running out of time at this household; as we've been at this investment party for 40 years. We got "lucky" leaving the party early in 2008 while there were still chairs available before the music stopped. I'm not so sure we can be "lucky" twice in such a short time frame.
    The rough part will be leaving a passion and breaking a habit; as well as deciding where to park the money in a hands off mode.
    Lastly, @AndyJ ; have you anything else in particular that you watch for cracks and stress in the world of bonds and debt? Any reference links would be most appreciated. Thank you.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Leuthold: stay defensive
    Leuthold's zeroing in on the zone several other observers have pointed to as a likely candidate for the trigger for the next big blowup -- corporates at the lower end of investment grade. (Moody's Baa is equivalent to S&P and Fitch's BBB, which is the lowest IG tier.)
    The Baa/BBB share of the IG corp universe has exploded, with generally IG corporations piling on debt for buybacks and buyouts, which has been getting rated one notch above junk. A dangerous flash point would be any general deterioration that led to downgrading a lot of that debt to junk, which could lead to a ton of selling by institutions and others who have that downgraded debt in a mandated IG sleeve, for example.
    I imagine the Leuthold guys are keeping an eye on things like biz loan delinquency, banks tightening lending standards, the financial stress index, etc., stuff that FRED (the econ research arm of the St. Louis Fed) provides handy charts for tracking, for example here.
    Appears none of that stuff is screaming "Run away!" yet, but things may be heading that way, and Leuthold's got their antennae aimed in the right direction, IMHO.
  • Steak Dinner And Annuities: Retirement Product Surges After Fiduciary Rule’s Demise
    @ Ted: Good morning & where is the link ?
    Derf
    @Derf, Possibly Ted’s thinking of this old post of mine on which he commented:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/43839/new-research-finds-link-between-financial-status-and-body-weight.
    Didn’t occur to me than, but I think the reason Larry, the annuity guy, has gotten so overweight is all the steak dinners he’s had to consume while selling annuities. Sounds like a tough way to make a living. :)
  • 2018 Dogs Of The Dow
    One of my mutual funds (FDSAX) invest about one third of its money in the Dogs of the Dow strategy (ten positions) and the other two thirds (twenty positions) using the same type strategy for picking stocks from the broader market omitting picks form the financial and utility sectors. I have owned this fund for a good number of years and feel it has served me well. It use to reset its portfolio in the fall of each year; but, in recently viewing its holdings I noticed portfolio changes now seem to be made more often.
  • Investors, Don't Lose Sleep Over The Midterm Elections
    FYI: The early October jolt of stock market volatility seemed to awaken investors briefly from a relative sense of calm and reminded us that pullbacks and downside risk are part of the price to be paid for upside performance.
    Despite just about every investing fear imaginable, any long-term snapshot of stock market performance will illustrate a persistent bias toward positive performance. Whether looking back 10, 50, 100 years or more, the basic economics of investing in a broad range of publicly traded companies is difficult to deny.
    On the subject of whether more market shake-ups are ahead, most financial advisers are rightly positioning the possible impact of the midterm elections along the lines of: "We're long-term investors" or "We don't have a crystal ball."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=pDfLW_bhBaOVjwTJrbTABw&q=Investors,+don't+lose+sleep+over+the+midterm+elections&btnK=Google+Search&oq=Investors,+don't+lose+sleep+over+the+midterm+elections&gs_l=psy-ab.3...3030.6789..8754...0.0..0.131.233.2j1......0....1j2..gws-wiz.....0..33i299.2_tpbvoSjLQ
  • Muni bonds sport attractive yields for retirees By
    https://www.financial-planning.com/news/muni-bonds-sport-attractive-yields-for-retirees?feed=00000153-9f90-d098-a37b-dfb9d93c0000
    Lee Conrad
    Published
    October 19 2018, 4:42pm EDT
    More in
    Retirement scan Retirement income Social Security Social Security benefits 401(k) 403(b) Estate planning Healthcare costs
    Our daily roundup of retirement news your clients may be thinking about.
    Muni bonds sport attractive yields for retirees
    The municipal bond market remains steadfast despite investors' expectation that the demand for muni bonds would dwindle because of new lower tax rates, and bond prices would drop as a result of interest rate increases, according to this article from Kiplinger. Indeed, the economy and the muni market proved resilient and tax revenues have been strong, said one expert. For older investors, muni bonds can also offer diversification as they tend to have low correlation with other fixed-income investments. To be sure, tax reform has been a mixed bag for muni bonds, but a few other factors working in their favor now include the fact that there was a huge spike in issuance in late 2017, which constrained the supply of muni bonds this year, helping to support prices. Moreover, muni defaults, which have been historically rare, have lately dropped to their lowest level since 2008.
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    FYI: Ten years after financial markets around the world tumbled toward chaos, they have an anniversary present for you: more stress.
    After a gain of nearly 7 percent in the third quarter, October ushered in a rout in the U.S. equity markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index plunged 6.7 percent from Oct. 3 to Oct. 11, with Asian and European equities following suit. On Oct. 12, the S&P 500 bounced back with a 1.4 percent gain.
    The equity market drama comes amid recent violent surges in Treasury yields and rising trade tensions. As earnings season begins, fear is mounting that these forces will cut into corporate profits and sound the death knell for growth stocks. Meanwhile, a strong U.S. dollar and heavy debt loads in many emerging markets, together with the trade turmoil, are leading to lower estimates for global economic expansion.
    It’s a challenging period—and an opportunity. The market’s inevitable cycles, however painful, are made for disciplined investors.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-how-to-invest-10k/?srnd=premium
  • Invesco To Buy Oppenheimer Funds, Adding $246 Billion In Assets
    (from @msf’s link above) Atlanta, October 18, 2018 --- Invesco Ltd. (NYSE: IVZ) today announced a combination with OppenheimerFunds, a strategic partnership with Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual) and a $1.2 billion common stock buyback program. Invesco also reported financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2018. “The combination with OppenheimerFunds and the strategic partnership with MassMutual will meaningfully enhance our ability to meet client needs, accelerate growth and strengthen our business over the long term,” said Martin L. Flanagan, President and CEO of Invesco. “This is a compelling, highly strategic and accretive transaction for Invesco ... “
    Interesting. Invesco’s PR portrays this more as a merger (“alliance”). But with only a 15% stake by Mass Mutual in the new conglomerate, it certainly sounds more like the purchase or takeover the press is portraying it as.
    The first link from @msf is quite interesting - a throwback to 1996. :) - And I didn’t even realize Invesco was based in London until I read the story.
    One correction on my part - The very low AUM I cited for their infrastructure fund was for the Class A shares which I happen to own. More than likely the total AUM for that fund are much higher. Possibly the shareholders acquired in Oppenheimer’s purchase of the fund from Macguarie came in under a different share class.
  • The Closing Bell: Wall Street Slides On Weak Earnings, Hawkish Fed, Saudi Concerns
    2 days ago the market soared on strong earnings. Today it fell on weak earnings. I wish the market would make up it's mind. Or maybe it's just the financial reporters who haven't a clue.
  • Your Financial Adviser’s ‘Sleep Easy’ Portfolio May Be Riskier Than You Think: The 60/40 Portfolio
    Your Financial Adviser’s ‘Sleep Easy’ Portfolio May Be Riskier Than You Think
    Don’t you love these “may be“ statements? Hell - I “may be” the King of England. :)
    I’ve never viewed 60/40 as a sleep-well combination. It might, however, be described as “sleep better”. The 60/40 has a couple strikes against it today. First, the equity portion is priced at near multi-year highs. Secondly, the interest rate on the bond portion is still low by historical standards. I don’t have an answer to that dilemma. It’s fodder for further discussion - but that’s about all.
    I happen to like Dodge and Cox, But their very fine balanced fund, DODBX, did not stand up well during the ‘07-‘09 market rout. A couple of their equity funds lost more than 50% from peak to trough. Just guessing here - but DODBX did somewhat better, dropping perhaps 30-35% during that period. Like I said, Sleep a little better - but not well.
    Maybe some creative minds would like to offer up alternatives to a 60/40 fund for jittery investors who need some long term growth but are frightened by today’s high equity valuations and still low interest rates. Despite the currently running thread on how well cash is doing these days, I just can’t get excited about 2.5% - especially if it means locking-up your money for more than a year.
  • Your Financial Adviser’s ‘Sleep Easy’ Portfolio May Be Riskier Than You Think: The 60/40 Portfolio
    FYI: The 60/40 portfolio allocation has burned investors in the past.
    Yikes.
    Two sharp falls in a row is enough to get any investor a little nervous. Yes, so far the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA back-to-back plummets are still only a tremor on any longer-term view. Stock prices are higher than they were even one year ago. Nonetheless for many investors it’s an overdue reminder that stock prices can fall — and fall a long way — as well as rise.
    That makes it a good moment, say experts, to take stock of your portfolio. Are you taking on more risk than you want? Worse, are you taking on more than you realize? You may well be. And your financial adviser, if you have one, may not realize it either.
    A ‘balanced’ portfolio of stocks and bonds failed previous generations of U.S. savers, and badly, during at least two extended periods during the past century alone.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-portfolio-may-be-riskier-than-you-think-2018-10-11/print
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack: Guests: Jason Zweig & James Grant
    FYI: : The investment sea change. Value is out, growth is in and passive keeps beating active. Financial thought leaders James Grant and Jason Zweig weigh in.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://wealthtrack.com/value-investing-under-pressure-and-the-pressure-to-go-passive/
    Jason Zweig's Blog:
    http://jasonzweig.com/category/blog/
    James Grant's Blog:
    https://www.grantspub.com/
  • Bad Years For US Treasuries Don't Mean Bad Years For Markets:
    FYI: It’s a rare year when total returns on U.S. Treasuries are negative, but when they are, the ripple effect on global markets is potent.
    Stocks, credit, high yield and emerging markets, in particular, suffer as investors bail out of the world’s safest and most liquid asset, pushing up the cost of money, squeezing liquidity and tightening financial conditions.
    That’s the running assumption, and it’s setting the narrative for financial markets right now as the U.S. bond selloff gathers pace and Treasuries close in on what will be only their fifth year of negative returns since the early 1970s.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/global-bonds-vigilantes/column-bad-years-for-us-treasuries-dont-mean-bad-years-for-markets-mcgeever-idUSL8N1WL49E
  • ALPS | Metis Global Micro Cap Value Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834418014621/fp0036295_497.htm
    1 fp0036295_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    ALPS/METIS GLOBAL MICRO CAP VALUE FUND
    Supplement dated October 9, 2018
    to the
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2018,
    for the ALPS/Metis Global Micro Cap Value Fund,
    a series of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”)
    On October 8, 2018, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust, based upon the recommendation of ALPS Advisors, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the ALPS/Metis Global Micro Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust, with an effective date on or about October 30, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    The Board approved a Plan of Termination, Dissolution, and Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases effective as of the close of business on October 8, 2018. However, any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after October 8, 2018, and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of October 8, 2018, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund after October 8, 2018, as provided in the Prospectus. Please note, however, that the Fund will be liquidating its assets between October 9, 2018 and the Liquidation Date.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    All expenses incurred in connection with the transactions contemplated by the Plan, other than the brokerage commissions associated with the sale of portfolio securities, will be paid by the Adviser.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • Is The Worst Over For Wells Fargo Advisors?
    Are you talking about a WFA account or a WellsTrade account? They're owned by the same corporation, and use the same clearing brokerage (Wells Fargo Clearing Services LLC dba WFA). But the services offered are different. Not that I'd trust either of them.
    It's still a good idea to check all your transactions, regardless of who your broker is. And to hold onto purchase confirmations until well after you sell the holdings.
    The IN article starts: "The wirehouse has felt blowback ...". It presents data about the exodus of advisors (as opposed to order-taking drones) from WFA.
    "The term [wirehouse] typically refers to full-service brokerages that offer research, order execution and investment advice all under the same roof." Financial Times.
    This may have changed, but years ago when I had a WellsTrade account, I could not walk a check into my brokerage. I was told that if I'd had a WFA account I could have handed it to a broker at a Wells Fargo bank. But since my account was with WellsTrade account, I would have to either mail in the check, or deposit it in a bank (WF or any other bank) and then transfer the money to my brokerage account.
    WellsTrade® Brokerage Account vs. Intuitive Investor® Account vs. Wells Fargo Advisors
    https://www.wellsfargo.com/investing/compare-ways-to-invest/
  • Women Investors Don’t Play It Safe
    FYI: A couple came into Mike Giefer’s Minneapolis office in late September for some financial planning advice. The woman presented herself as the risk-averse one and her husband as the financial maverick. Then Giefer had them take a test. “It turned out the exact opposite,” he says. Giefer, an adviser at the Johnston Group, uses Riskalyze, an online tool that gauges clients’ risk tolerance by walking them through various financial scenarios and then assigning them a “risk number.” The woman scored a 70. Her husband, only a 52.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-05/women-investors-don-t-play-it-safe?srnd=premium
  • Buy ... Sell ... and Ponder (Fall Investing Season ... September, October & November)
    @Old_Skeet: I took a quick look at PCLAX. About 60% cash & bonds , 40% other. Do you have any idea what the "other" is invested in ? I'll take a peek at Chuck's place & see what they have listed on the fund.
    Derf
    Back at you: Sector weighting; 57% financial & 12% info tech.
    Top 25% last 2 years & YTD ! Long & short cash & bonds.
  • 72-year-Old Fidelity Bets On The Future With Blockchain, Virtual Reality And AI
    FYI: .The 72-year-old financial services company is competing with Google, Facebook and Microsoft to recruit top talent from Silicon Valley.
    .The firm, which administers more than $7 trillion in customer assets, spends $2.5 billion a year on tech through Fidelity Labs and its Fidelity Center for Applied Technology.
    .The Boston-based private company is experimenting with blockchain, artificial intelligence and virtual reality — and is benchmarking itself against digital natives like Nvidia instead of brokerage firms like Charles Schwab.
    .“Fidelity is a sleeping giant,” says Rich Repetto, principal at Sandler O'Neill & Partners who covers its brokerage competitors. “Or at least they're not a well known giant as far as what they're actually doing.”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/fidelity-the-tech-company.html
  • Active Managers Don't Get Enough Credit, Study Says
    The amateurism of your "link" speaks for itself. You regard yourself as a financial "pro", and in my opinion, quite rightly so. Try to move a little beyond third-grade "cut and paste".
    Got heeeeem! @Ted is no financial pro, though...