@Davidmoran,
HA. I don’t want to make it personal. Sorry if I got carried away. Defensive? Maybe.
Please know that I claim no expertise in financial affairs and don’t recommend my approach to others. I simply love following and discussing financial matters, along with science & astronomy, because in those disciplines a given
input equals a given
outcome. In other words, both disciplines rely on logic and provable facts. Compounding works. Buying low and selling high is demonstrably more profitable than the reverse. Management fees make a difference in the long-run, etc. etc. Contrast that type of intelligent commentary with most of the garbage that gets consumed daily in our media driven society. Thus reason to read the board and share ideas.
Dick Strong and some of his cohorts gave
market timing a bad name back in the late 90s. (I dunno how he escaped prison.) And the fund companies than were more or less forced to tighten their regulations to prevent timing. Without going into detail, the practice (timing) can be profitable for a few smart (or
shrewd) investors, but “dings” the fund returns for most so invested (a practice sometimes called
skimming).
Anyway, my plan - scatterbrained though it is - was designed to keep me from shooting myself in the foot by trading frequently. Just about everybody here, including myself, seems to agree that frequent trading is detrimental to long term returns. That’s why 75% is essentially “locked away” in a diversified
core portfolio. Except for annual distributions and rare rebalancing it’s
hands off with that portion.
The 25% “Flexible” portion is a concession to my perceived need to be “hands on.” I can’t tell you whether the incremental adjustments to cash/equity holdings based on perceived market risk over the years have worked or not. My guess is it’s probably been a “draw.” I can say that in ‘98 when the tech-bubble burst, bringing down the whole market, and again in late ‘08 / early ‘09 when the last bear market ended I did have a sizable cash stash to put to work. It felt good anyway to be buying low. But maybe I’d been better off if I hadn’t carried the cash/equity equation over the preceding years.
I know your OP was “Why cash?” ... It’s highly liquid for one thing. It doesn’t pose the same downside risk as short selling does. It doesn’t carry the high expenses / fees that using various derivatives would. And most fund companies don’t put restrictions on your ability to move in and out of their cash / cash equivalency accounts - as they do with their other funds. As I said earlier, bonds pose some special risks in this low rate environment that might not ordinarily exist.