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I wish the White House (or anybody else) a lot of luck trying to predict where interest rates will be a year or two out.From the Wall Street Journal's analysis of the economic assumptions released with the Biden budget:My recollection is that 5% is dead average for the 10 year note over the past century. Good news: I recall hearing it from Kai Ryssdal on a Marketplace podcast. Bad news: can't track it down.Economic forecasts released Monday as part of the White House’s 2025 budget proposal assume that three-month Treasury bill rates will average 5.1% this year, the same as in 2023, before declining to 4% next year and 3.3% in 2026.
The White House sees the average 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 4.4% this year from 4.1% last year and then declining gradually to 3.7% by the end of this decade.
Those sort of interest rates remind investors that there is an alternative to stocks, which might well occasion a shift from equities and at least the tiniest bit of discipline on the part of managers (fund and otherwise). Jon Sindreu at the Wall Street Journal published an interesting project that suggests that cash might handily beat stocks over the next 12 years and would be pretty competitive with them over the next couple years. His projection of asset class returns, based on "quarters similar to today," puts the two-year APR for stocks at 7.something percent, cash at about 7% and bonds at over 8%. The dominance of stocks would return unless you had a time horizon of five years or more ("How to Invest? More than ever, it depends on who you are?" Wall Street Journal, 3/15/2024)
Well that struck a chord. About a dozen years ago, I moved a small (LT 10%) annuity from Fidelity. And I got a call from my rep at Fidelity (back when Fidelity assigned reps), who harangued me for about 15 minutes before putting a specialist on the phone. All in all, about an hour with them telling me why the Fidelity product was so much better than where I was moving to, how they could stop the transfer before it was complete if I okay'd that.I dont think it is the employee's fault as I suspect they are rushed through training and put to work ASAP
although I have to say there are some strange things going on at Fidelity.
My wife and I moved a small (LT 10%) of her account to Schwab to make it easier to gift our kids some stock.
We got five daily phone calls from a fidelity rep wanting to know why.
I still have a login there many years after closing an account. I have assumed that the fund information I see after logging in (min, open/closed, etc.) is accurate. (I cannot trade in a closed account.)at Firstrade ... To check on other funds the only precise way is to open an account and put in a test trade which will tell you if it the fund is available and the minimums which for the majority is way under 10k.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/23/why-are-bond-yields-so-high-right-now/“You know, actually, historically speaking they’re not that high,” said David Krause, emeritus professor of finance at Marquette University. He pointed out that on average over 100 years, long-term Treasury yields were 5.2%. Close to where they are now.
My recollection is that 5% is dead average for the 10 year note over the past century. Good news: I recall hearing it from Kai Ryssdal on a Marketplace podcast. Bad news: can't track it down.Economic forecasts released Monday as part of the White House’s 2025 budget proposal assume that three-month Treasury bill rates will average 5.1% this year, the same as in 2023, before declining to 4% next year and 3.3% in 2026.
The White House sees the average 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 4.4% this year from 4.1% last year and then declining gradually to 3.7% by the end of this decade.
Great post that IMO should be required reading for all of the CD detractors on this forum.@MikeM - You seem to be missing the point about CDs. I don’t recall anyone advocating investing all of your money in CDs, or even a substantial portion. The great thing about CDs right now are the relatively high yields with predictable, stable returns. I have highly rated bond funds that have lost money over the past 3 years, with pitiful returns over the past 5, 10 years.
Now that I am approaching the age for required minimum distributions, it’s nice to know that I can put a portion of my portfolio in an investment with a guaranteed return. Using a ladder, I can create a guaranteed income stream up to 5 years or longer. My CD ladders are yielding 5% plus. Who knows what bond funds will return over the next 1, 3, 5 years? Nobody. BTW, I still own bond funds, and their returns still suck despite the dead-cat bounce in late 2023.
The bond portfolio is collateral for the swaps. That's the way I remember it being described when I first bought it several years ago. These days they say that the bonds "seek to provide additional long-term total return." But yeah, it's also there for redemptions IMHO.The Fund expects to use only a small percentage of its assets to attain the desired exposure to the Index because of the structure of the derivatives the Fund expects to use.
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