FYI:
Regards,
Ted
June 21, 2018
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
We are celebrating the launch of our Fifteenth Season on Public Television this week! Talk about long-term investing. We are delighted that you are here to share it with us.
Our goal when we started the show was exactly as it is now - to help our viewers build long-term financial security through disciplined, diversified investing, with advice from some of the top professionals in the business. We are continuing that tradition this week.
One of the hallmarks of Great Investors and Financial Thought Leaders is independent thinking. In order to beat the market you have to do unconventional things. This week’s guest is a prime example. He is known for his rigorous research and ability to create strategies that are either non-correlated with market behavior, i.e., they zig when the market zags, or add alpha, a performance edge over the market using more conventional strategies.
We’ll be joined by Cliff Asness, Co-Founder, Managing Principal and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management, a global money management firm he launched in 1998. It now has $225 billion dollars under management in hedge funds, as well as other alternative and more traditional strategies for clients and its family of mutual funds, which it started in 2009. One of the oldest, the AQR Managed Futures Strategy Fund, which has so far achieved its goal to be non-correlated to the market is co-managed by Asness and has a Morningstar Bronze analyst rating.
AQR stands for Applied Quantitative Research. The firm uses proprietary computer models to forecast returns for a wide variety of assets and geographies using a heavy application of old fashioned human brainpower, which it has in abundance. At last count 11 of the firm’s 26 principals have doctorate degrees and 5 are current or former professors.
Asness is a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago where he was Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama’s teaching assistant for two years. He has won numerous prestigious awards for his own research including the CFA Institute’s James R. Vertin Award in recognition of his “body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals”.
AQR is known for its value orientation but Asness is quick to point out there are other key strategies employed. During this week’s interview, we’ll discuss the four core strategies AQR has identified over the years that can add a performance edge to portfolios.
If you miss the premiere show of our new season on air this week, you can always watch it on our website. It’s available to our PREMIUM viewers right now and to everyone else over the weekend. We also have an EXTRA interview with Asness about his research on a seldom used but highly effective ice hockey strategy that has investment applications.
Also, if you're looking to take WEALTHTRACK with you on your commute or travels, you can now find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on TuneIn, Stitcher, and SoundCloud, as well as iTunes. Find out more on the WEALTHTRACK Podcast page.
Thank you so much for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!
Best regards,
Consuelo
Video Clip:

@Art: You've got one hell of a nerve telling the author of a piece of financial writing that he doesn't have the right to comment on the misuse of his own original work.

A headline that I would like to see:
One Trick I Learned from Other Worthless Financial Posts
"One trick I learned from other worthless financial hacks is that if I write a column with "Five Tricks I Learned" in the header some guy named Ted will help me make a living writing useless crap by copying it to MFO".

FYI: Most millennials can’t answer simple financial questions correctly, according to a new nationwide survey. Only 17 percent of working Americans ages 25-40 could answer five basic financial literacy questions from Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. (MassMutual) Foundation’s FutureSmart Digital program correctly, according to the report. The questions were on topics including credit scores, compound interest and investing.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/millennials-lack-basic-financial-knowledge--massmutual-finds-39299.html?print

JG has said repeatedly, as have others, that the corporate debt explosion is looking like it could be the trigger for the next crisis + recession ... although the recession indicators he talks about are not signalling anything dramatic on the near horizon. (That of course doesn't rule out an intracyclical slowdown like, for example, in 2015, the kind of slowdown ECRI is projecting.)
The 6% T comment is the one comment he's made in quite a while that sounds more like an assertion without any real support rather than the usual well-documented insights in his webcasts. Really, to get an idea of what he's up to, someone would need to tune in to at least a couple of full webcasts.
His ego's pretty puffed up, yes, but the economic, financial, and investment insights are mostly close to the mark and overall useful. The 6% thing is a real outlier, IMHO.

Here's a FT article discussing a 2016 CFA Financial Analysts Journal paper studying The Effect of Management Design on the Portfolio Concentration and Performance of Mutual Funds. Here, "management design" means the use of one manager or multiple managers.
Unlike the Bloomberg column that looked only at the ten largest funds in each of three groupings, this paper used CRSP data for the whole US fund market, excluding only funds holding fewer than 10 assets, less than $500K AUM, and funds with under 12 months history.
I think it is worth reading the paper itself (one can skim/skip the detailed analyses and focus on the plain English sections) as well as the FT piece. The paper has many observations, including:

We showed that portfolios of funds managed by a single manager tend to have a higher degree of both within- and cross-sector concentration. A singlemanager management design, on average, achieves a better net performance and has a higher expense ratio. ...
First, all else being equal, equity mutual fund investors may be better off selecting funds with portfolios concentrated in the top one or two stocks (relative to the stocks’ own size) within each sector. Investors could also benefit from selecting funds that are concentrated in a few industry sectors relative to the market portfolio.

My initial impression is that while single management vs. multiple/team management tends to lead to more highly concentrated portfolios, it is that level of concentration more than the management structure that matters. Haven't read the paper carefully enough yet to verify that impression is entirely correct.
Note also that it also observes that older funds run by long term managers tend to underperform. Your guess is as good as mine as to how one picks newer funds run by short term managers.

No strong opinions on teams vs stars, but FWIW the "teams" at American Funds are one of the main reasons that we are comfortably retired with minimal financial concerns.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1103243/000141304218000161/momentumbond497cls.htm
497 1 momentumbond497cls.htm
The Momentum Bond Fund
A series of PFS Funds
Supplement dated June 8, 2018
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
each dated September 1, 2017
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the PFS Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) relating to The Momentum Bond Fund (the “Fund”), effective June 6, 2018. NWM Fund Group, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser (the “Adviser”), recently completed a strategic review of the management and operations of the Fund and determined that it does not desire to continue to support the Fund and has recommended to the Board to approve the Plan. As a result, the Board has concluded that it is in the best interest of the shareholders to liquidate the Fund.
In connection with the proposed liquidation and dissolution of the Fund called for by the Plan, the Board has directed the Trust’s principal underwriter to cease offering shares of the Fund immediately as of the date of this Supplement. Shareholders may continue to reinvest dividends and distributions in the Fund or redeem their shares until the liquidation.
It is anticipated that the Fund will liquidate on or about June 29, 2018. Any remaining shareholders on the date of liquidation will receive a distribution of their remaining investment value in full liquidation of the Fund. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund toll-free at 1-888-331-9609 or the Adviser at 1-707-252-1343.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of any redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
This Supplement, and the existing Prospectus dated September 1, 2017, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated September 1, 2017 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-888-331-9609.

@VintageFreak- From what I've seen so far, the "technology" is about at the level of when mass mailings first attempted to "personalize" by being addressed to you. This, if you remember, produced some interesting artifacts, along the lines of "Dear Addressee Unknown".
The stuff out there now consists of remarkably bland pre-cooked "financial" paragraphs, with the company name and some other info such as recent stock price filled in by the robot.

@Benwp Because there are thousands of financial advisers who can and those advisers are highly valuable customers to Morningstar.

"I'm wondering when media companies will deploy robots to write articles for them."
Some already have, with short financial "articles", to a primitive degree. So far the result isn't pretty.

How would you like to have accounts at FlagStar bank?
Wells Fargo is exiting retail banking operations in three Midwestern states as the beleaguered company follows through on previous plans to reduce the number of locations it has open.
The San Francisco bank said Tuesday that it will sell 52 retail bank branches in Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio to a Flagstar Bancorp subsidiary, as well as several branches in Wisconsin.
Financial terms were not disclosed. Almost 500 employees will be get job offers from Flagstar.
Wells Fargo & Co. has said it will reduce to approximately 5,000 the branches it operates by the end of 2020.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/social-security-trust-fund-will-depleted-17-years-according-trustees-report

@David_Snowball- David, thanks much for your non-financial comments this month. I'm not going to be specific, but I suspect that you'll know which ones.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1614812/000116204418000369/avon497201806.htm
Avondale Core Investment Fund
(COREX)
a Series of Avondale Funds
Supplement dated June 5, 2018
to the
Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated February 28, 2018
____________________________________________________________________________
This Supplement to the Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Summary Prospectus for Avondale Core Investment Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Avondale Funds (the “Trust”), dated June 5, 2018, updates certain information found in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus of the Fund dated February 28, 2018, as amended through June 5, 2018 as described below.
The Board of Trustees of the Avondale Funds has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to close the Avondale Core Investment Fund effective June 15, 2018 (“Liquidation Date”).
Effective immediately, the Fund, pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (“Liquidation”) approved by the Board of Trustees, will not accept any new investments and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
Accordingly, the prospectus has been amended:
Suspension of Sales. Effective immediately, the Fund will no longer accept orders to buy shares of the Fund from any new investors or existing shareholders.
Prior to June 15, 2018, you may redeem your investment in the Fund, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT EXCHANGED OR REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JUNE 15, 2018 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund at 1-800-564-3899.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
**********************
Shareholders should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, as well as the Fund’s Statement of Additional Information, each as supplemented from time to time. These documents provide information that you should know before investing, and should be retained for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling Mutual Shareholder Services at 1-800-494-2755.
Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.

Well, if we have a 2000-2002 kind of market, value will earn positive returns. Of course, that time and leading up to the financial crisis, "value" basically meant "financial". So we will figure out what it means this time around assuming the same situation comes to pass.
Anyways, like I said I use indexing along with my ANALysis which keeps me invested in market to various degrees or not. I venture outside indexing only if I end up making a sale within time limits so I can't buy again. Then I use long dated target funds. I'm good without either explicit "value" or "growth" or even small/mid/international in my portfolio.

Well, automation drives savings in operational expenditure for an organization. If TRP can leverage their "robo advisers" to help garner assets just like they would their "human advisors", then can pass on the savings by firing the "human advisor" to the customer, and yet, collect their fees at the same level. Perhaps even more. Then they benefit themselves as well as their customers.
So it is sad for the "human advisors". However, I'm not going to feel too sad for them because IMO this is one of the most abused/unnecessary professions. In my experience, Financial Asset Management and Information Technology (please make note I did not say Computer Science) are too professions with the highest percentage of Bullshit Artists. Their jobs will and should be the first to get "automated away". The fact that robo-advisors are so rampant right now is because asking a few questions and coming up with an asset allocation does not take rocket science, and if this is what human advisors were doing for most part, then they were not doing much.
In other areas, Automation will HELP. Like maybe help Surgeon perform operations, maybe even enhance their abilities. However, replacing the Surgeon herself with a Robot? Now we are talking Star Trek which is a long way away. But then, in the Star Trek era, poverty has been eradicated and neither human nor robotic financial advisors exist.
I hope those 150 who were unfortunate to not find re-assigned jobs at TRP, are able to find similar jobs elsewhere. I know how hard it is to find job when you lose it, especially when you get older. If I were to lose my job to automation, I would mind it less than if I did for other reasons. As long as automation is helping mankind and not simply making other people rich by foisting their toys on us.

By all accounts, Gross did what he wanted when he was at PIMCO, so regardless of any alleged bench strength he could still have made the same decision. Also he is now "unconstrained" only. Not sure if he ran that strategy at PIMCO as well and if he was still there would also have been responsible for that funds performance.
All I'm saying is Bill took ALL credit at PIMCO, he should take ALL blame at Janus. And unfortunately now there is nowhere to hide for him since he is not managing multiple funds at Janus. IMO let's stick to the facts. No one is genius. Everyone makes mistakes. I'm not going to try and find something wrong in the personal life of Berkowitz to explain why FAIRX is sucking wind either.
Basically I'm saying let's put financial pron writers out of business. Doing soap opera reporting after affairs and divorces have occured is not intelligent. They were so smart they should have published article "Beware, Bill is in middle of bitter divorce and that may affect his ability to manage his fund". They didn't.

Looks like they finally cut Wells Fargo from its otherwise excellent holdings recently -- which now (on principle) puts the fund back 'in play' for me both in taxable and retirement accounts I used to hold it in my Roth, but swapped it for TWEIX a few years ago.
From their 3/31 commentary...
The Fund remains underweight financial services because most companies offer inadequate upside potential at current valuations. That said, proceeds from the Wells Fargo sale were invested into two competitively advantaged financial institutions. The first is American Express, the world’s largest card issuer by purchase volume. American Express has built a global payments network that generates high returns on equity and maintains its prestigious brand through its best-in-class customer service, innovative digital platform and strong security.
First Republic, a private bank focused on attractive markets, such as San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles and Boston, was the Fund’s second addition. The bank’s excellent customer service attracts affluent individuals and successful small businesses, which leads to outsized loan growth with pristine credit quality. First Republic’s recent rollout of an innovative student loan refinancing program should attract the next generation of affluent customers and accelerate the bank’s growth.

Gold has been in a horrendous bear market from 2011 to 2015, and all that selling is behind us. So I don’t think there is a lot of selling pressure, and I think the downside risk is very minimal because we’ve been through that bear market.
Huh? Forget Secretary of Education, I want this guys job. And also the job of the Barron's interviewer. Why isn't second question WTF something going down suddenly will go up?
Oh wait...this is why...part 2 of the answer convenient before immediately going into discussing the holdings.

Secondly, I think things are changing that favor gold. We are seeing elevated levels of geopolitical risk, a lot of uncertainty around the Trump presidency, and more recently there are early worries of inflationary pressures. ... blah, blah, blah...
Inflationary pressures. So Gold will return how much over next 5 years?
In the next year or two, we are going to be faced with an economic downturn and probably a general stock market downturn that will bring out a lot of the warts in the financial system—and that could propel gold much higher.
We have a rising rate environment which should put a floor under the dollar. How's that for ANALysis. Then WTF should Gold skyrocket?
Seriously, how do I find period of sustained downturn against how Gold did well AND also when Interest Rates are rising?

Just back from 6 day trip for funeral......but, this is my quick take without much news sourcing for me: Italian gov't. (newly elected) formation problems.
Can't form a government.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180528/whats-next-for-italy-political-crisis
Other arse kicking indicated here:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor?orderBy=percentChange&orderDir=desc
I recall a verbal blip on radio regarding anti-Euro policy and monetary austerity.
Keep in mind that the Euro central bank doesn't have the same legal mandates as is formed with our Fed.Res. or Treasury.
IMHO, there remains a lot of financial slop remaining from the 2008 melt.
Financial is financial and gets the shakes thinking about monetary problems; and yes, U.S. govt issues are having their day. Been a long time that money has actually run to this area. Perhaps all of this is overblown or a new beginning of phase 2. I don't know.
Outta time here.
Take care,
Catch