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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The 27 Scariest Moments Of The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
    Thx for this. Ahh, memories.
    "SEPTEMBER 29, 2008: The US House of Representatives defeats a proposed $700 billion emergency bailout package, 228-205. Stocks sink as the votes are counted live. The Dow plunges by 777.68 points in its largest single day point loss ever."
    ... I remember trading futures that afternoon and doing so while totally incredulous and in a state of muted disbelief. C-SPAN was truly the financial network that day. As I recall, that was the first time during the crisis when I felt existential, systemic, dread that the global system indeed might well collapse. I live 2 blocks from the Pentagon, and even with post-911 smoke blowing across my balcony that week, I didn't feel the same sense of dread as I did that day in '08.
    (I did quite well that afternoon, though - I was shorting the S&P futures hard.)
  • The 27 Scariest Moments Of The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis
    FYI: Nine years ago, the US economy sank into a recession, the housing market crashed, and credit markets seized, bringing the banking industry to its knees. Businesses were going down. Workers were losing jobs. Americans were losing hope. For many, the psychologically critical low moment was the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. But the memory of events before and after that day is slowly fading.
    Business Insider outlined the 27 major moments, from 2007 to 2009, and added some context. From the initial reports of subprime defaults to AIG's second bailout, here are the scariest moments of the financial crisis.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.businessinsider.com/financial-crisis-scariest-moments-2017-9#february-8-2007-hsbc-says-its-bad-debt-provisions-for-2006-will-be-20-higher-than-expected-because-of-a-slump-in-the-us-housing-market-nonfinance-people-start-paying-attention-to-what-subprime-is-1
  • 3 Big Problems With Roth IRAs
    I'm gonna disagree...mostly.
    Problem 1- Roth IRAs have income limits: If your income is too high to contribute to a Roth IRA (a good problem) you have the financial ability to contribute to a taxable retirement account and then orchestrate a "back door" Roth strategy...problem solved.
    Source:
    Since the income limits on Roth conversions were removed in 2010, higher-income individuals who are not eligible to make a Roth IRA contribution have been able to make an indirect “backdoor Roth contribution” instead, by simply contributing to a non-deductible IRA (which can always be done regardless of income) and converting it shortly thereafter.
    https://kitces.com/blog/how-to-do-a-backdoor-roth-ira-contribution-while-avoiding-the-ira-aggregation-rule-and-the-step-transaction-doctrine/
    Problem 2 - Roth IRA benefits can be limited: Roth death benefits are tax free for the beneficiary. Tax deferred IRAs are taxable upon death to the beneficiary. If you die early...your dead... regardless. I would agree that if your beneficiaries are non - profit organizations, then, by all means, contribute to tax deductible IRAs and pass the entire tax deferred account on the the non-profit tax free.
    Problem 3 - The time value of money can be hard to beat:
    Time value is the very reason Roth IRAs are such a great long term retirement investment. You pay less "real dollars" in taxes. When you contribute to your Roth IRA you pay taxes in today's dollars. A $5500 contribution at the 15% tax rate would equate to $825 additional income tax...at 20% rate would equate to $1100...at 25% rate would equate to $1375. The 2018 lower brackets look like this:
    image
    If you will fall within these lower brackets it make tax sense to contribute to the Roth. It also makes sense to lower yourself into these brackets by deducting income on contributions to tax deferred IRAs. A combination of the two is also a good strategy.
    Fast forward to age 60 (30 years of compounding growth @ 7%):
    This one Roth contribution ($5500) would have a value of about $39K (tax free) and has no RMD requirements at age 70. At age 70, it will have grown to almost $77K. This money can help you strategically lower your taxable withdrawals from other taxable accounts to further minimize taxes. This can also help you avoid many income based costs (i.e.- income based medicaid premiums) or qualify for income based subsidies (too many to list).
    Fidelity article on Strategic Income Withdrawals:
    https://fidelity.com/viewpoints/retirement/tax-savvy-withdrawals
    Had this contribution grown in a tax deferred IRA, the deferred tax liabilities at age 60 would be - $5850 (@15% rate), $7800 (@20% rate), and $9750 (@25% rate) and about twice that at age 70. Roth locks in the tax rate at the point of contribution...tax deferred is always the differential between what you saved on contributions (your tax deductions) verse what you paid on withdrawals (your tax liability on your withdrawals). RMDs force your income higher so you have less control over income levels.
    If you can lock in a low tax rate on a contribution with either or both tax free (Roth) or tax deferred (401K, 403b, 457, etc.) this is a tax bird 'in the hand". The real problem is not knowing what your taxable income will be on your tax deferred withdrawals in retirement... that is the "tax bird in the bush." and not having a mechanism to help strategically live on some tax free income when it is to your advantage. Saving 15% on contributions to then, 30 years later, pay a higher tax rate on withdrawals is a real long term loss of capital (withdrawal tax rate - contribution tax rate) compared to the Roth IRA (contribution tax rate).
    I like to think of the taxes paid on a Roth contribution that permanently locks in the cost of taxes. Obviously, there are many other advantages to a Roth IRA such as access to you contributions at any time tax free, no RMDs, and the ability to fine tune your retirement income with regard to tax liabilities by accessing tax free dollars.
  • The Closing Bell: US Stocks Gain Ground As Banks And Industrial Companies Rise
    FYI: U.S. stocks edged higher Friday after several days of losses. Energy companies rose with the price of oil and banks and industrial companies are also up. While retailers are mostly higher, jewelry chain Tiffany fell after a weak sales report and disappointing forecast. The S&P 500 has slipped for four days in a row and is still down 1 percent this week.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/asia-stocks-face-mixed-friday-dollar-strengthens-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-advances-as-financial-energy-stocks-gain-idUSKCN1GS1HP
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-struggle-as-political-worries-return-to-haunt-investors-2018-03-16/print
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/nasdaq-ends-higher-in-cliffhanger-as-these-3-chip-names-soar/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/us-stock-futures-dow-data-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html
    AP:
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/your-evening-briefing
    Bonds: CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/bonds-and-fixed-income-data-on-the-agenda.html
    Curriencies: CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/forex-markets-dollar-in-focus-ahead-of-feds-policy-meeting.html
    Oil: CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/oil-markets-focus-on-crude-demand-while-higher-output-caps-rise.html
    Gold: (Reuters)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious/precious-gold-dips-down-for-week-market-braces-for-fed-rate-hike-idUSL8N1QY3NB
    WSJ: MarketS At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Mixed
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Quote
  • TD offers callable step-up notes
    Great discussion.
    At least these are 'normal' vanilla-looking notes and not more of those ducky 'Principal Protection Notes' or 'Barrier Notes' the big guys were foisting on retail investors before the financial crisis. You know, those creative investment vehicles that ended up imploding and causing several lawsuits over.
    I still have the product literature from my then-UBS guy, which I read for yukks every now and then.
  • JP Morgan Multi-Cap Market Neutral Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/763852/000119312518083422/d552167d497.htm
    497 1 d552167d497.htm JPMORGAN TRUST II
    J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
    JPMorgan Multi-Cap Market Neutral Fund
    (All Share Classes)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust II)
    Supplement dated March 15, 2018
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    dated November 1, 2017, as supplemented
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE JPMORGAN MULTI-CAP MARKET NEUTRAL FUND. The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the JPMorgan Multi-Cap Market Neutral Fund (the “Fund”) has determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund to terminate the previously approved proposed plan of reorganization and cancel the related special meeting of shareholders.
    Instead, the Board has approved the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund on or about April 6, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”). Effective immediately, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and strategies as it increases its cash holdings in preparation for its liquidation. Unless you have an individual retirement account (“IRA”) where UMB Bank n.a. currently serves as the custodian, on the Liquidation Date, the Fund shall distribute pro rata to its shareholders of record all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for any proceeds from any securities that cannot be liquidated on the Liquidation Date, cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Fund deem appropriate subject to ratification by the Board. Capital gain distributions, if any, may be paid on or prior to the Liquidation Date. If you have a Fund direct IRA account, your shares will be exchanged for Morgan Shares of the JPMorgan U.S. Government Money Market Fund unless you provide alternative direction prior to the Liquidation Date. For all other IRA accounts, the proceeds will be invested based upon guidelines of the applicable Plan administrator.
    Upon liquidation, shareholders may purchase any class of another J.P. Morgan Fund for which they are eligible with the proceeds of the liquidating distribution. Shareholders holding Class A Shares or Class I Shares will be permitted to use their proceeds from the liquidation to purchase Class A Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund at net asset value within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, provided that they remain eligible to purchase Class A Shares. They may also purchase other share classes for which they are eligible. If shareholders of Class C Shares purchase Class C Shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund within 90 days of the liquidating distribution, no contingent deferred sales charge will be imposed on those new Class C Shares. At the time of the purchase you must inform your Financial Intermediary or the Funds that the proceeds are from the liquidated fund.
    FOR EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS OF RECORD OF THE FUND AS OF MARCH 19, 2018, ADDITIONAL PURCHASES OF FUND SHARES WILL BE ACCEPTED UP TO OR AROUND APRIL 3, 2018 AFTER WHICH NO NEW PURCHASES WILL BE ACCEPTED. FOR ALL OTHER INVESTORS, PURCHASES OF FUND SHARES WILL NO LONGER BE ACCEPTED AFTER MARCH 19, 2018.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-MCMN-LIQ-318
  • TD offers callable step-up notes
    This is an example of what are called "Retail Notes". They're frequently offered by large, recognizable, primarily financial institutions.
    Fidelity calls its program for selling these Corporate Notes℠. It has a good description of these bonds:
    https://www.fidelity.com/fixed-income-bonds/individual-bonds/corporate-bonds/corporate-notes-program
    Unlike ordinary corporate notes, these are sliced into manageable $1K pieces and sold "without commission" (the underwriting costs are baked into the rates). Another difference is that these are typically junior (subordinated) notes, meaning that in the case of default, you stand in line behind holders of other notes. The GS note here is rated BBB+ by S&P.
    I did a look on Fidelity's site for secondary issue GS notes and found that I could buy $2K or more (in $1K increments) of a note maturing 2/15/18, yielding 2.54% including fees. So the rate isn't anything special.
    Here's that bond's listing on TDA. Note that the pricing there vs. Fidelity is waaay worse. The min offered at TDA is $5K (vs. $2K) and the best yield is under 2.1%. Same bond, different broker. At least with new issue retail notes, you're getting the same price ($1K, par) wherever it is sold. Still, different brokers will offer different bonds.
    Recognize that because of the call option in the retail bond, buying it is somewhat of a heads GS wins, tails you lose. If interest rates don't go up much, GS will call the bond and you'll have a ½ - 1 year bond at 2.5%. if interest rates go up more than 1%, you'll be locked into 3.5% for another year.
    IMHO retail bonds are designed as simple easy to use investments for people who don't want to deal with commissions, accrued interest, amortization, tax complexities, market discounts and premiums, OID, etc. that come with "real" bonds. Retail bonds are more like savings bonds issued by corporations. They tend to have respectable but not the best rates. They can be a good way to get your toes in the water.
    Nice post. Maybe I missed it but have you ever posted on your background/profession? CFA?
  • TD offers callable step-up notes
    This is an example of what are called "Retail Notes". They're frequently offered by large, recognizable, primarily financial institutions.
    Fidelity calls its program for selling these Corporate Notes℠. It has a good description of these bonds:
    https://www.fidelity.com/fixed-income-bonds/individual-bonds/corporate-bonds/corporate-notes-program
    Unlike ordinary corporate notes, these are sliced into manageable $1K pieces and sold "without commission" (the underwriting costs are baked into the rates). Another difference is that these are typically junior (subordinated) notes, meaning that in the case of default, you stand in line behind holders of other notes. The GS note here is rated BBB+ by S&P.
    I did a look on Fidelity's site for secondary issue GS notes and found that I could buy $2K or more (in $1K increments) of a note maturing 2/15/18, yielding 2.54% including fees. So the rate isn't anything special.
    Here's that bond's listing on TDA. Note that the pricing there vs. Fidelity is waaay worse. The min offered at TDA is $5K (vs. $2K) and the best yield is under 2.1%. Same bond, different broker. At least with new issue retail notes, you're getting the same price ($1K, par) wherever it is sold. Still, different brokers will offer different bonds.
    Recognize that because of the call option in the retail bond, buying it is somewhat of a heads GS wins, tails you lose. If interest rates don't go up much, GS will call the bond and you'll have a ½ - 1 year bond at 2.5%. if interest rates go up more than 1%, you'll be locked into 3.5% for another year.
    IMHO retail bonds are designed as simple easy to use investments for people who don't want to deal with commissions, accrued interest, amortization, tax complexities, market discounts and premiums, OID, etc. that come with "real" bonds. Retail bonds are more like savings bonds issued by corporations. They tend to have respectable but not the best rates. They can be a good way to get your toes in the water.
  • Ben Carlson: Animal Spirits Episode 20: Goodnight Moon
    FYI: On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss:
    .Why the flash correction was so rare.
    .The growing chasm between the haves and the have-nots.
    .The huge following of Dave Ramsey.
    .Why rising interest rates are a double-edged sword.
    .Why crypto index funds don’t make sense.
    .The potential move into financial services by Amazon.
    .The problem with trading on hedge fund manager headlines.
    .Wealthfront’s new risk parity strategy.
    .How to hit the reset button on your career.
    .Our favorite children’s books to read to our kids & much more.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/03/animal-spirits-episode-20-goodnight-moon/
  • Fund That Tracks Broker Dealers And Exchanges Is Raking In Cash: (IAI)
    FYI: As investors grow increasingly bullish on financial stocks they’re flocking to an exchange-traded fund that tracks a specific niche on Wall.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-14/fund-tracking-broker-dealers-exchanges-rakes-in-cash-etf-watch
  • ALPS To Close An Exchange Traded Fund: (WTRX)
    FYI: -ALPS, a subsidiary of DST Systems, Inc. (NYSE: DST) providing products and services to the financial services industry, today announced the liquidation of one Fund of the Elevation ETF Trust.
    The Fund -- Summit Water Infrastructure Multifactor ETF (NYSE ARCA: WTRX) -- will close to new investors on March 26, 2018 and liquidate on April 2, 2018.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180312006216/en
    M* Snapshot WTRX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/WTRX/quote.html
  • Buy, Sell and Ponder -- March
    Late last week I sold parts of my holdings in SFGIX and DSENX as well as my remaining tiny chunk of FAAFX. With that, I brought equities down to 70% of my portfolio from 80%.
    Some of that is for personal reasons. I've been pretty much all in the market for the 15 years, it's been a great ride, and I now want to raise cash to buy a house in a year or so. The money I'm taking out of the market is money I expect to need soon.
    I also think that, despite the fabulous economic fundamentals, the US now faces political risk: there's a chance IMHO that Trump will do something phenomonally stupid, or that Mueller will find a smoking gun and that (in the latter case) Trump doesn't go quietly.
    I hope I'm wrong on both counts, but I'm sleeping better now that I've got enough in cash and conservative bond funds to meet my near-term financial goals.
  • Q&A With Michael Venuto, CIO, Toroso Asset Management: Funds That Thrive As Rates Rise: (TETF)
    Interview (July 2017) from one of the best when it comes to Banks and Financial fund managers Anton Schutz::
    BURKX which has become RMBLX
    CNBC-SCHUTZ-Buy-Pullbacks-in-Bank-Stocks
    rmbfunds.com/
  • Q&A With Michael Venuto, CIO, Toroso Asset Management: Funds That Thrive As Rates Rise: (TETF)
    FYI: Investors seeking to hedge against higher interest rates and increased volatility have other options besides traditional retail banks. Financial services companies, like State Street and BlackRock, which issue exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, tend to also do well when rates rise, says Michael Venuto, chief investment officer of Toroso Asset Management.
    He says Toroso's ETF Industry Exposure & Financial Services exchange-traded fund, or ETF, is a good play for investors when interest rates and market volatility rise. The ETF, ticker symbol TETF, is up 8 percent this year, while the S&P 500 is up 1.8 percent. Answers have been edited for length and clarity.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Fund-manager-Q-A-Betting-on-funds-that-thrive-as-12738423.php
    M* Snapshot TETF:
    http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/TETF/quote.html
  • Ibbottson: Fixed Indexed Annuities Beat Bonds For Retirees
    Yes they exist This is just another name for equity indexed annuities. You've seen my post in the "pension reform" thread
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/99053/#Comment_99053
    From Dummies:
    Since 2006, EIAs [equity indexed annuities] have undergone several changes, including a name change. Insurers began calling these products FIAs (fixed–indexed annuities) instead of EIAs, in order to avoid suggestions (and avert any accusations) that EIA contract owners were investing their money in stocks (also known as equities). Many investment professionals simply called them “index annuities.”
    The cost is embedded wtihin the annuity parameters like payout rate, guaranteed minimum return, etc. So there's no explicit cost stated. These are not low cost vehicles, but it's difficult to figure out how much they are costing you.
    Also, it seems that most of these annuities are capped. The good news, if you can call it that, is that the caps I'm seeing are straightforward. There can be caps where, if the market does better than the cap, you don't get anything!
    Equity indexed annuities are called "fixed" because all annuities are either fixed or variable. Fixed annuities are general promises by the insurer issuing the annuity to pay a fixed amount. Here, the amount to be paid is "fixed" by the return of the index followed. The promise you get is only as good as the insurer.
    Variable annuities have no particular return that is promised. Also, rather than relying upon the financial soundness of the issuer (as with an ETN), your money is segregated from the issuer and invested in a mutual fund. So your investment is arguably more secure - it's backed by the underlying assets of the fund, not by the insurer.
  • DSEEX Explanation
    I've tried to describe the fund conceptually in terms of major building blocks. To come up with an explanation of its performance entails starting with a much more detailed model and then using trial and error to find a proxy bond fund that might adequately match the performance of the bonds in the portfolio.
    I'm not going to go through that exercise. But I will give you some idea of other factors involved.
    According to a page on DoubleLine's company website (I haven't found this detail on the DoubleLine fund site or in the fund's prospectus), the swaps used require collateral. (Generically speaking, some swaps do, others don't.) Here's the image from that site showing the need for collateral
    imageContrast that with the image on the fund's fact sheet that omits mentioning the need for collateral. Contrary to the image above the fact sheet states that 100% of the money invested (not just a remainder) goes into the fixed income portfolio. Since the prospectus also omits anything about using collateral, it obviously doesn't say how much collateral is needed.
    So now there's a new factor (collateral) to include, one that comes alone with an unknown value (collateral percentage). FWIW, MWATX, which uses futures not swaps, typically puts up 4%-5% of the value of the derivatives as collateral (according to its prospectus). If DSEEX is using 5% collateral, then the remaining 95% of the amount invested is being invested in bonds. So one would multiply the performance of the proxy bond fund by 95%. In reality, we not only don't know an appropriate bond fund to use as proxy, but what scale factor should be used.
    Then there are the carrying costs for simply holding the swaps. That appears to be the "financing rate", which is different for each swap, but tends to run in the 0.40% - 0.47% range. At least those are the rates shown for the swaps in the latest semiannual report, which is now almost six months old. So some average rate in that range needs to be subtracted from the CAPE (swap) rate of return.
    Next up are the costs of acquiring the swaps. Some, like brokerage fees, can be extracted from the financial statements. Others, according to the prospectus, are simply not disclosed:
    investment-related expenses not shown in the [fund expense] tables include brokerage commissions and undisclosed markups on principal transactions, which reduce the return on your investment in a Fund and may be significant. ... In cases where a Fund enters into a swap transaction or certain other transactions based on an index, the transaction pricing will typically reflect, among other things, compensation to the counterparty for providing the investment exposure. The transaction pricing also may reflect charges by the Index sponsor for the use of the Index sponsor’s intellectual property and/or index data (“Intellectual Property”) in connection with the transaction. These investment-related costs may be significant and will cause the return on a Fund’s investment in a swap transaction or other transaction based on the index to underperform the index. The terms of these transactions may change over time, potentially in response to market conditions, without notice to shareholders.
    As with the carrying costs, simple subtraction is the best way to account for these other expenses. Say they totaled 2%/year, then 2% would be subtracted from the fund's expected return. I pulled that 2% figure out of the blue for a placeholder; I've no idea what these other costs total at any given point in time (the prospectus says they vary over time as well).
    Finally, I'm not clear why you elected to use a PIMCO fund as a bond proxy; I might have tried out some DoubleLine funds first.
    Personally, I'm content with my level of understanding of this fund, though I can appreciate the interest in proving out a model by getting numbers to match.
  • Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack Encore: Guest: Ed Hyman & Matthew McLennan Part 2
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    March 8, 2018
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Keeping track of the myriad of disruptive technologies shaking up business and the markets is a daunting task. It requires familiarity with multiple disciplines, industries and global markets. In preparation for moderating a panel on the destruction and disruptions caused by digital technologies, I was sent a collection of brief essays from the host firm, Thornburg Investment Management, a well-regarded global firm managing both fixed income and equity portfolios and funds. With their permission, I am sharing it with you on our website, WEALTHTRACK.COM. I’ll be delving into several of the topics covered on future WEALTHTRACKS, including the widespread impact of the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics.
    On the program this week, while public television continues its spring fund raising drive, we will be listening to part 2 of our rare annual outlook with Ed Hyman and Matthew McLennan. Last week we focused on the U.S. economy and markets. This week we expand our horizons to the world at large. Hyman’s “global growth accelerating” theme has definitely picked up steam and McLennan’s insights on political and financial risks have also proven prescient.
    For those of you not familiar with Ed Hyman, he is the founder and chairman of Evercore ISI and the record holder for being voted the number one economist on Wall Street for an incredible 37 years in the Institutional Investor’s survey of professional investors because of his must read, brief and easily understood daily reports on trends in global economies and markets.
    Matthew McLennan, another WEALTHTRACK regular over the years, heads up the Global Value team at First Eagle Investment Management where he is also portfolio manager for several funds, including the flagship First Eagle Global Fund, which he took over from legendary value manager Jean-Marie Eveillard a decade ago. McLennan is a worthy successor. The global fund has been a top performer among world allocation funds for years and is known for its superior risk-adjusted returns.
    Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best regards,
    Consuelo

  • The Best Sector Of This Bull Market Is The ‘Greatest Investment Story Ever Told’ (PNQI) - (FDN)
    FYI: While the strategy of investing in internet-related companies will likely always be first associated with the dot-com era, the long-lived bull market has proved to be just as strong a period for a sector that has influenced nearly every aspect of the economy.
    Friday marks the ninth anniversary of the financial crisis bottom, and since that period—by one measure, the start of the current bull market—internet stocks have been among the best performers on Wall Street.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-best-sector-of-this-bull-market-is-the-greatest-investment-story-ever-told-2018-03-08/print
    M* Snapshot PNQI:
    http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/XNAS/PNQI/quote.html
    M* Snapshot FDN:
    http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=FDN&region=USA&culture=en_US
  • DSEEX Explanation
    @LLJB has done a great job in describing DSEEX, both here and in earlier threads such as this one.
    I agree that the use of swaps doesn't significantly affect the risk in and of itself. I believe that the swaps used by the fund involve only net performance. (See, e.g. equity swap into here.) That is, the fund gets an income stream equal to the performance of the index (if the index goes up 1% it gets 1% of the swap value) while it pays the counterparty a fixed rate.
    So if the index goes up more than the cost of the swap (usually the case) the fund nets some income. If the index goes up less than the cost of the swap (or even goes down), then the fund owes the other side some money, net.
    All that is at risk with the swaps is the net income since the last time the two sides settled their debts (called a "reset"). These resets happen periodically so there's just a limited amount of income at risk should the other side default.
    IMHO the fund's added risk comes from its use of leverage. Not in the traditional sense of borrowing money to invest, but in using $1 of investor's cash to gain $1 of exposure to the index and $1 exposure to the bond market. That's where the derivatives come in. The risk is from the leverage, not the derivatives. The derivatives are simply a means to that leverage.
    Almost no cash is needed to own or service the derivatives; the vast majority of the cash is used to invest in a bond portfolio. Should both equity and bond markets drop, this 2x exposure can hammer the fund. (Should both go up, the fund can soar.) As wxman123 noted, TANSTAAFL.
    As DoubleLine writes:
    Each $1 investment seeks to obtain $1 of exposure to the CAPE® Index via swaps and $1 of exposure to the underlying portfolio of bonds managed by DoubleLine. ... This portoflio has no financial leverage because no money is borrowed .... There is implicit economic leverage due to the use of unfunded swaps ....
    https://doubleline.com/dl/wp-content/uploads/6-30-2016_CAPEStrategy-10FAQ_JSherman.pdf
  • A Currency War Is Coming
    Written a few years ago, but I pretty good explanation of why not to worry...
    Worst case scenario? The US dollar might depreciate against some other currency. That’s a long-shot but it could happen. Will that push up US interest rates? Doubtful. The US Fed determines the short rate, and the global search for safe assets plus expectations of future US Fed policy determines the longer rates.
    Guess what. As we head into the next GFC (Global Financial Crisis), the US continues to look awfully good. Don’t bet against the dollar or US interest rates. Uncle Sam wears the biggest pants in the world.
    Source:
    china-dumps-us-treasury-bonds-paul-krugman-inches-toward