Macron, France, Euro$, ECB...a few related observations. HEDJ etf Macron won, 2-1. Holy landslides, Batman. When I started investing, (2002) I stayed away from Europe. Old money. Dead money. Asia was charging ahead. I owned Matthews, back then. The Financial Crash caused by the criminal banksters struck the periphery hard: Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece. Italy, too. And there are still systemic issues to be dealt with ... Was Ireland able to climb out of crisis sooner than the others--- via a new Austerity--- because it is smaller and more homogeneous? I just don't know. Lots of ANGRY people, when suddenly, WATER became a metered commodity. I lived in a town here in the States years ago, at the bottom of the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia below Wheeling, where even in 1992, water was not metered.
My holding in PRESX about 18 months or 2 years ago (TRP Europe) went nowhere, at break-neck speed. I guess I missed the sudden upsurge on the heels of easing by the ECB. (Draghi.) I dumped it. Currently, my PRIDX is doing much better. Its portfolio is pretty evenly split between Europe and Asia. A smattering in Latin America (4%.) Is the PRIDX fund Manager just better at stock selection than the PRESX guy, with regard to the EU portion of holdings? Of course it may be that Asian holdings doing so well today may serve to cancel-out any EU under-performance within the fund. Within the overall portfolio, PRIDX holds 15% in GB, and 28% in DEVELOPED Europe. I'm just thinking out loud--- so to speak.
What I'm wondering is: just how un-dead has the EU become? Investing strictly in Europe got me nowhere, 2 years ago..... I don't think I'd own a dedicated-Europe fund again, anyhow, but since I own PRIDX now, I'm simply wondering...
Lipper: Utilities Sector 2Q17: Best And Worst
Looking For a Good Mid-Cap Growth Fund AKREX shows as only 37% mid-cap on Morningstar. I have owned both but of the two only in BUFTX as of now. I don't know how it can be said that AKREX out performs BUFTX. It depends on what sectors you want to be stronger in. AKREX is heavy financial, and BUFTX more into tech and health. Don't know how much it matters in the long run, as they run neck and neck.
Are You A Schwab Client? Many brokerages have improved significantly in the past decade or so. These days it seems to be (with a few exceptions) a choice between adequate, good, and really good. I put Schwab in that latter category.
Though I don't use Schwab much, I have been with them for many years - I even have an old "No annual fee - free for life" IRA there. (When's the last time you saw an IRA account with an annual fee?)
As others have said, they've got good execution, don't bother you (maybe that's because I don't have enough invested with them), a good selection of NTF funds. They seem pretty fast in making newly load-waived funds available NTF.
For me, the biggest plus, outside of the high quality service, is the rebate ATM card that expatsp mentioned. What wasn't mentioned was that not only does Schwab rebate the ATM fees, but it also eats the 1% foreign exchange fee imposed by the network (VISA/MC) when you use the card abroad.
A small plus is that Schwab bank is a real bank. That matters in a few situations where other financial institutions only allow EFT linking to a real bank. (Sometimes you can't link a third party to a Fidelity account, since Fidelity doesn't run a bank.) Be aware though that virtually no Schwab branches are Schwab bank branches. I don't know if this list is accurate, but it shows just 11 bank branches:
https://www.branchspot.com/charles-schwab-bank/The biggest minus for me is that Schwab doesn't seem to have a backdoor like Fidelity where you can buy shares of a TF without paying a large fee (here, $76) per purchase.
Finally, since Vanguard Brokerage Services was mentioned - it's true that they offer fewer funds, but they seem to sometimes offer institutional class shares with lower mins than Schwab or Fidelity. Notably PIMCo ($25K vs. $100K at Schwab/Fidelity.)
The Difference Between A Prediction And A Probability
Occam's Razor and Investing Hi Guys,
Today, I came across an article that discussed Occam's Razor. I believe that simple is always better than complex when options exist. Here is a Link to that article:
https://www.farnamstreetblog.comI expected that the article would investigate Occam's Razor's application to investing. I was wrong. However, I did recall earlier articles that did address its application to the investment world. A quick web search uncovered the following piece by Rick Ferri. Here is the Link to the Ferri work:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/03/07/occams-razor-on-investing/#c1ae17e58ab2Please give it a read. It concludes with a useful observation.: "index funds has a higher probability for reaching your financial goals." Wise words!
The emphasis is on "probability". There are no certainties when investing. We operate in a world of uncertainties so the key is to select the option with the highest expected return. I'm using expected return as the probability of a successful outcome times it's likely payoff.
Enjoy the references and good luck.
ADDED THOUGHT: Since we are talking probabilities, we benefit greatly from diversification. It's prudent policy to not bet too much on anything. Make many (like 10 or more) uncorrelated bets.”
Best Regards
What Kiplinger’s Has In Common With Online Porn Investing and making the right decision with respect to risk-return is hard work. Many financial magazines such as Kiplinger, Money and others try to over-simplify these matters. At time Barrons is also guilty of that in their annual round table discussion.
What Kiplinger’s Has In Common With Online Porn I think of ALL the financial pron peddlers Kiplinger probably is the worst. I mean it has the least pron. That's not like saying much but that's all like the choice we made in the last presidential election.
M*: Pulling Money From Your Roth IRA? Read This First @bee, thanks much. Doctrinaire people, man.
You obviously have suppleness and emotional understanding as a parent.
Yeah, I am not considering this as an investment except perhaps at the lower levels, and think that the 'effectively' person is mostly rationalizing.
Depends on the RE market too, of course. For my kids I looked back 45y and ownership of three houses in the Boston suburbs and calculate that the total return had been (only) ~7.5% per year, and that in a time of hugely rising house pricing. (And flat the last decade for this last house we are in, so ~9% before that. I am, without any foundation, positing that the tax breaks are a wash against mortgage costs, repairs, taxes, etc.).
Regardless, none of this strategy of hers is ideal, and I myself would have advised her to keep on renting and saving. But that is not such a prudent option, really, for a variety of the usual reasons (age and life stage, marriage and children planning, in-laws' needs, etc.).
The charge of horrible 'don't ever do that, you dope' financial misplanning just seemed so wack, not to say offensive, to me. As though Benz shoulda been prevented from writing the article in the first place.
How Global Investor Allocations Have Changed Since the Financial Crisis
M*: 10 Funds That Beat the Market Over 15 Years @hank. If you can tell how long it was before $56.69 became $100 again? Might be instructive.
Perhaps then we can ask the question, if one sold DODGX when value fell to $90, and then bought it back after it crossed $100 again, ...
I think you get my drift. Funds don't keep falling from $100 to $90, up again to $100, back down to $90, again and again and again. The risk of "not being invested" is way overblown by the financial industry because it risks their revenue stream from our assets.
Fool me once, shame on you (2000-2002). Fool me twice (2007-2009) shame on Me. Fool me thrice (? - ?), shame on Who?
My ANALysis told me I should be 66% invested few weeks back. I kept selling my 401k assets down, AS LONG AS the funds I was invested had their NAVs decreasing. I made it down to 80% invested, never made it down to 66%. Those funds I didn't sell actually helped my portfolio performance as should be expected. Now my ANALysis tells me to be 100% invested, I'm creeping back in AS LONG AS the funds I'm invested in have their NAVs rising.
This is the definition of common sense. My name is VF and I approve this message.
What If John Bogle Is Right About 4% Stock Returns? @msf I'm suggesting that perhaps we need to change the narrative. Investors should not have "expectations". They should always expect the unexpected.
"Buy and Hold", "Value Investing", etc. may have merits of their own, but they are in Isolation. Financial Advisors (telling people where to invest), Financial Planners (how to generate income stream for retirees), etc. are professions that have been "created" by the industry.
Some of us like me learnt it the hard way and I think the long way. And that is if one is going to invest in the market, don't do it because his neighbor is doing it. One HAS to go and get an understanding of how investing/markets/etc work. One does not have to get a PhD in it, but one has to have enough knowledge. My better half has a PhD, but has no clue about any of this. I wake up in the middle of most nights in a cold sweat with the scenario I'm dead, and she is the hapless victim various Financial Asswisers and Financial Plunderers.
You know how much money you have. You know how much loss you can tolerate. Educate yourself on the RISK of various investments. THAT is in your control. RETURNS are NOT in your control. So stop making assumptions, worse, stop letting OTHERS makes assumptions on your behalf what/if/how etc. you will need. I'm simply appalled when I hear "How much money do you think you need in retirement" question is asked by Financial Planner to an individual. If the individual does not know the answer to that question, then I'm very sorry, but I have no sympathy for them, and they deserve what they get. I've even shared that opinion with my wife, unfortunately she's my wife, so while I may not sympathize with her after I'm dead, which would be impossible, I still worry about it.
WAKE UP PEOPLE! Sometimes unemployment rate has to go up. Let's put most Financial Bullshitters out of business.
M*: 10 Funds That Beat the Market Over 15 Years
Bespoke France, Germany Test Multi-Year Highs @BenWP: Bespoke is considered one of the best sources of market and stock information on Wall St. I only link their free info, and like many other financial websites they have some material for free along with a premium package for a fee. Granted much of the data is short term in nature, however; might I suggest you put a cloths pin on your nose and continue reading their links. Here is a relink of the Barron's interview Pual Hickey and Justin Walters Bespoke founders. (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search) "Another Year of Double-Digit Gains"
https://www.google.com/#q=Another+Year+of+Double-Digit+Gains+Barron'sRegards,
Ted
What If John Bogle Is Right About 4% Stock Returns? If I were seeking financial advice, I think I would trust someone named Jack Bogle more than someone who calls himself "The Linkster." Bogle's calculations are based on earnings growth, dividend yields and valuation. Those are the fundamental units of return for those who believe stocks move on anything besides speculation. Simply saying well stocks returned 10% annually or whatever annually in the past, therefore they will produce such returns indefinitely in the future is assuming past performance is always prelude to the future without any analysis of the underlying cause for that performance. If the cause is earnings growth, valuation and dividend yields, and valuations are much higher than they have been in the past and dividend yields are much lower while earnings though high may have peaked, then it is logical to assume lower returns than historical ones going forward.
There are of course a number of wildcards here, but one thing Bogle doesn't do is make short term predictions. In the short-term markets always move on speculation. In the long-term, fundamentalists like Bogle believe stocks move on earnings yields--which is the inverse of the p/e ratio--and dividend yields relative to inflation and interest rates. Inflation, interest rates, taxes--this year's wild cards--and geopolitical events are always unpredictable and could throw any prediction off--long or short. Ideally, a prediction based on fundamentals should be made for a full market/economic cycle--at least five years--and factor in some sort of inflation and interest rate expectation. And still those can be grossly off. But at least making a prediction based on current stock valuation and yields is forward looking as opposed to simply looking at historical performance which is backwards looking.
In K-12 403(b) Plans, Employees And Their Unions Can Be Their Own Worst Enemy FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
Distrust between school districts and unions, as well as potential financial incentives, factor into lack of reform.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=In+K-12+403(b)+plans,+employees+and+their+unions+can+be+their+own+worst+enemy
