The Week in Charts (12/17/23)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:23 Is the Inflation Fight Over? (CPI Report)
04:26 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices, Inflation Expectations)
06:20 The Fed Pivot (FOMC Meeting)
13:46 Dow 37k (New ATH)
17:44 2 Years of Returns in 2 Months (Bond Market)
22:52 Corporate Bonds: Lower Yields, Tighter Spreads (High Yield/IG Bonds)
25:34 Higher Rates, Higher Stocks? (Fed & Stocks)
29:13 Is Mean Reversion Dead? (Large v. Small, US v. International, Growth vs. Value)
33:08 From Fearful to Greedy (Sentiment)
36:20 Wages Outpacing Inflation (Good News)
Video
Blog - not posted yet

Linette Lopez has been trashing Musk for years, see example(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl6oWXUCrLg)...read the comments below the video...mmm...do you think she has an agenda?

Thank you @bee. I actually don't view these too often, but I had to listen to Giroux.
Some interesting relevance to recent posts here at MFO around, AI, AI used in Health Care, high quality junk, a 5 yr outlook on their stock picks (GE for an example finally paying off after 3 years), maybe time for HC, industrials and utilities in 2024 (I've noticed some here mentioned selling their HC holdings and disparaging utilities after 2023 underperformance).
But the biggest thing I learned, his name is pronounced Gir-ooh, not Gir-O, which I've always called him :)

Rieder was interviewed Friday on Bloomberg WSW. Folks are probably already familiar with BINC which opened in May. Here’s a short excerpt from this week’s Barron’s:
”On Thursday, BlackRock became the latest to launch an actively managed bond ETF with the debut of an ETF version of its popular total return mutual fund. The BlackRock Total Return ETF is the second active ETF (BRTR) managed by Rick Rieder, CIO of global fixed income. In May, BlackRock unveiled the Flexible Income ETF, which now has $413.4 million in assets.The investor share class of the $18 billion BlackRock Total Return mutual fund—a Morningstar three-star gold-medal fund—has delivered annualized total returns of 3.97% over 15 years, beating 63% of its intermediate core-plus bond peers, according to Morningstar.”
Rieder indicated the newer ETF is very similar to the above mentioned mutual fund, What I don’t understand is the difference in risk (credit quality / duration / hedging) between the two new ETFs (BINC vs BRTR)? Which is more conservative? Which is expected to outperrform?
Your insights appreciated.

From
LINK
https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
FUNDS. In the ETF performance race YTD, #1-ARKK, #2-FBCG, but they got there in very different ways. Also, FBCG is a long-term winner.
FUNDS. HEDGE-funds are suing the SEC over new reporting and disclosure rules for short-selling, swaps and securities-lending. They are arguing that the interrelated nature of these activities makes these rules problematic. Some fund firms (Price/TROW, etc) and university endowments (Harvard, etc) are also complaining about the new rules. New rules may affect how the activists operate – they make the news, but their long-term influence on valuations has been mixed.
FUNDS. Forget cheap small-caps (R2000), the micro-caps are super-cheap. The economy avoiding recession and the Fed cutting rates in 2024 will provide the needed spark as these companies live and breathe in debt. Mentioned are several micro-caps with P/B in the range 0.8-1.9 – AVALX, BRSIX, BRSVX, FRMCX, OBMCX, PVIVX, WAMVX; ETF IWC; included for comparison are R2000 IWM (P/B 1.6), SP500 SPY (P/B 3.6). (P/B is fine for newer companies and most financials; but even Warren Buffett has given up talking about P/B for BRK, although others continue to do so.) (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
EXTRA1, FUNDS. Now BlackRock/BLK has core-plus active ETF BRTR (earlier, multisector BINC). It will be a cousin of its OEF MDHQX / MAHQX (NTF/no-load at Fidelity and Schwab). Vanguard also introduced core VCRB and core-plus VPLS. (Of course, active bond ETFs have been around for years – BOND, FBND, TOTL, etc, so these late entrants are just catching up, but making noises about a new ETF revolution that is in the active equity ETFs, not active bond ETFs.)
EXTRA2, FUNDS. There is always hope that stock-pickers will do better. Several active large-cap OEFs are mentioned – CGWRX, DODGX, HHDVX, HWAAX, LGVAX, MRFOX, OAKLX, OAKMX, SVFAX.
EXTRA3, FUNDS. BREAKING News – Allocation 60-40 has been found alive again, this time by Vanguard. (of course, Vanguard also has a very comprehensive and solid lineup of allocation funds).
RETIREMENT. Fidelity says that 20% of retirees haven’t yet taken their RMDs. Deadline is 12/31/23 (really, 12/29/23 this year) and there are stiff penalties for missing RMDs. They are based on prior yearend balances and some consolidation rules apply. Several firms offer RMD services. Those who don’t need RMDs for expenses may consider QCDs that don’t flow through income.
(EXTRAS from online Friday that didn’t make the weekend paper version)

Giroux = contrarian as ever. Back to seeing yoots as an interesting moneymaker these days, again. He describes how the fundamental landscape has changed over the course of several years for the yoots.
(" What is a yoot?" ---- Fred Gwynn.)

There were a LOT of posts this year about CDs for a LOT of reasons. Here’s my 2 cents on all that.
As background: I’ve been a brokerage, CD (all references here are to brokerage, Call Protected CDs) ladder owner for ~15 years, owned individual CDs many times in the 25 years prior to that, have been active for years in BUYing Secondary Issues, and set up a Revocable Trust, CD portfolio many years ago for HNW relative.
I found the posts to be everything from enlightening to alarming. I was surprised at how little many posters know about CDs and how widespread an overall bias is against them.
The recent, and to some, LONG awaited, months of unusual opportunities in CDs is winding down. For much of 2023, investors had the opportunity to build CD ladders out 5+ years with 5+% or better average annual rates. It was a godsend period for investors who highly regard guaranteed, call protected fixed income.
Some, like me, love to not have to think or worry about the FI sleeve of their portfolio. Some, like me, think that 4%-5+% is a level that is equal to or better than whatever they might get from bond funds over the next 5 years. And even if it’s not, it’s a hurdle at which they say, “Screw worrying about bonds. Gimme the CD X% and lemme worry about/spend more quality time with the higher risk, higher reward part of my portfolio.
Me? I dumped every dedicated bond fund I owned (mostly at EOY 2022) and pared back the number and value of allocation funds with bonds, ending with only about 5% in bonds, down significantly from my levels of the past 5-10 years. The proceeds replaced the lost stock exposure from sale of allocation funds, bought a 5-yr CD ladder paying 5+%, and added the residual (~$50K) to a Total Stock Market Index fund, the latter of which is UP ~24% YTD.
Meanwhile, I was free to spend WAY MORE time on my now 11-fund stock/bond portfolio. The 11 funds are UP between 11% to 76% YTD, yielding a weighted average of UP ~29%.
The main reason CD posts are WAY DOWN has little to do with anyone who bought them NOT being interested in them or happy/satisfied in their BUYs. It has WAY MORE to do with the fact that the opportunities that graciously peaked twice this year are now dwindling-to-gone. I would also guess there are some posters who didn’t quite get the whole CD opportunity thing, passed on it, and ain’t real interested in posting about it now.
The rates that will be available in the coming 6 months, when several rungs fall off my ladder, will still be over MY hurdle. So I’ll be able to have a 5-yr CD ladder in place starting July 2024 at the age of 68. Could NOT be happier with the way all that shakes out. I will be interested, without any hesitation or rear-view remorse, to see how the TRs of the dedicated bond funds I dumped compare to what I replaced them with. Either way, it’s a W for me as I’ve virtually and happily removed bonds from my portfolio, and can spend WAY MORE quality time on the part of my portfolio that makes me real money.
Also, on the posted notion that there have been issues with CD interest payments...
Ugh.
There have been three known issues noted by MFO posters on CD interest payments.
All occurred within about the past year.
All were caused by unique issues that slightly delayed the interest payment (e.g., power outage, bank merger with systems communications issues).
All were resolved and all interest payments were posted to investor a/c's within a reasonable delay period.
So that's three minor issues related to hundreds of MFO posters who have received thousands of interest payments over the past X number of years (in my case, 15 years!).
To me, that is all worthy of a minor footnote, but definitely not worthy of a broad stroke, negative comment about issues with interest payments.
That’s me and my 2 cents, and that's all it is. Take it or leave it.
YMMV.

Although there’s been a lot of discussion about CDs and Treasuries on the forum this year, I didn’t take that to mean everyone had abandoned bond funds. I certainly didn’t, and my bond funds have rebounded nicely over the past month. I set up CD/Treasury ladders with a portion of the income allocation — to take advantage of the high yields and add some certainty to my portfolio. My wife and I will have required minimum distributions starting in a few years, and I wanted some guaranteed sources of income that I could rely on whatever the market conditions.

@operation_twist,
I looked up M* total returns for GQETX and SPY from 12/12/2008 to 12/12/2023 and also from 12/12/2008 to 12/13/2023 - your post was on 12/13/2023. In both cases, GQETX total returns were higher than that of SPY, as I had already said in my previous post. I did extra work trying to understand where you may be coming from and posted my work. You on the other hand do not seem to have any intention of seeing the facts, except repeating your claims.
Repeating a false claim with even a bigger post does not make the false claim correct in this forum. Everyone makes an occasional mistake but when the mistake is owned, the forum resources are spent on mutually productive endeavors.
In addition, that 15 year period is when international stocks did worse than US stocks and I already mentioned in my previous post that GQETX has 20% in international stocks. Why would anyone compare SPY total returns to GQETX, even though GQETX did better, to express a firm opinion about the manager? BTW, M* also shows GQETX has 68.64% active share - to your statement that QLTY is a [high cost] index fund.
If you simply stopped at "[I]f I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo", I would have no problem and I would not even ask you to justify, especially when Warren Buffet said the retail investor should put all their equity investment in SPY.
It is your next statements, "qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it" that are factually inaccurate.
No one here is married to this manager or to GMO. I will go to whoever will pay me more. It is each person (or investor)'s responsibility to get out of unproductive relationship(s).
Unfortunately, this forum does not have an ignore button. If it did, I would request you to put me on Ignore and I would also reciprocate.

@crash, I am considering buying home builder stocks instead of REITs. My pick on REIT funds have not done well in the past.
@hank, I agree that bonds are having a great day. Probably the best in recent years.
@Tarwheel, do you have more information on the bond portion of PRFCX?

the manager has a 15 year track record with another fund. the index did better. the reason I say I would rather own the index is because of the massive overlap in holding this fund has with the index. I am simply betting on lower costs. Also I understand the intense desire to find the manager with the secret sauce. I fell for it with SEQUX. They haven't beat the index in last 5 10 or 15 years.
It's weird that expressing an opinion on something, I warned you it would ruffle feathers, is now considered a "drive by".

contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?

contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?

Ah, thanks guys for the info. I thought maybe there was some shenanigans going on.

If you have access to streaming futures data, the time 1359-1402 is always fun on Fed day to see markets in action. The wibbles, spikes, drops, and microsecond volatility is *insane* as places jockey to position prior to the announcement and then after once it sinks in. 'Fading the rally' often was a great strategy in years past if I was tempted to play on Fed day instead of sitting and watching -- I'd sell S&P futures at a best-guess point higher and usually could be in/out of a nicely profitable trade in under a minute or two. Even better were the huge pops to the upside which then reversed over the next few hours during the press conference into the close. (of course that was before Big Algo(tm) took over trading desks and killed the fun of intraday futures trading....)

contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

QLTY is a month old fund and is an actively managed (not an index) fund. Not sure where you are getting your 15 year numbers and calling QLTY an index fund from.
GQETX a cousin of QLTY (a US equity fund) and is allocated 20% to International stocks. To give you the benefit of doubt, I compared GQETX with SPY (same as VOO) and its total return is slightly higher than that of SPY (let us call it even) over a past 15 years. However, over the life of GQETX and over the last 10 year period, GQETX handily beat SPY. GQETX is also less volatile.
As an opinion, one can pick VOO over QLTY for a future investment. Yes, one can have an opinion (contrary or concurring) about the future but it is not possible to have contrary (or alternate) facts about the past.
What is the purpose of the drive by shooting?

Per M* data, ARTFX "People":
Bryan C. Krug
Years in Strategy
10 Years
Industry Experience
23 Years
Tenure Performance
5.64%
Index Performance
1.44%
Investment AUM
$ 8 Bil
Bryan C. Krug, CFA, is a managing director of Artisan Partners and a portfolio manager on the Credit team. In this role, he is the portfolio manager for the Artisan High Income Strategy, the Artisan Credit Opportunities Strategy, and the Artisan Floating Rate Strategy, all of which he has managed since each strategy's inception.
Gender: Male
B.S. Miami University
Current Investments Managed
Mar 2014— Artisan High Income Advisor
Mar 2014— Artisan High Income Institutional
Mar 2014— Artisan High Income Investor
Dec 2021— Artisan Floating Rate Advisor
Dec 2021— Artisan Floating Rate Institutional
Dec 2021— Artisan Floating Rate Investor

contrary opinion. if I had to pick this or voo and hold for next ten years I would pick voo. qlty is a high cost index fund. over 15 years the spy beat it.

Like @stillers, I jumped on new issue CDs when rates topped 5%, and I’m glad that I did. I’ve got CD ladders extending out 5 years in several IRAs and our taxable savings, with an overall yield about 5.1%. The last issues I bought were 4 and 5 year terms yielding 5.05 to 5.1%, and the best yields in that range have dropped 0.5-0.8% over the past couple weeks. All my CDs are non-callable except for a few shorter term issues that are unlikely to be called.

Old_joe,
You can invest as you wish, I never said that CD or TR are bad or I will never invest in them.
I know 3 investors with millions, one has over 90% in Munis + 10% stocks, the second has over 90% in stocks, the third has 50% in MSFT, all have been doing it for decades and are very pleased.
In the last 1.5 years I posted many times that ST CD didn't make sense because MM has been doing very well and similar. About several weeks ago I posted that 3-5 years CDs make more sense to me because inflation is coming down, rates are likely to come down and these CDs will still pay nicely and much better than MM.
BTW, looks like several CDs had problems in the past.

@hank- well, Baseball_Fan does make a good point regarding the desirability of having a reasonable amount of secure fixed income for a number of years immediately after retirement. That happened to us- immediately after our retirement the great events of 2009 did a real number on our investments generally. However our SS and pension income allowed us to ride that out without disaster.
We were really lucky, but I do have to say that my spreadsheet planning for some twenty years prior to retirement had included such a scenario. You might remember many exchanges between me and MJG regarding my approach and his vaunted Monte Carlo alternatives.

Already explained the WTF portfolio. If you need less than 3%(2.5% is...I need under 2%) annual withdrawal, then you can do whatever.
Someone who doesn't have enough must take a lot more risk than the above.
I always found better ST trade in bond OEFs and the rest is in MM. MM gives me more flexibility and is easier to trade than CD/TR.
As usual, the red zone DEPENDS. There is a difference between retirement at age 55, 65, or 70.
Never in my life, have I owned a CD or US treasury, as you see at https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding.
From retirement in 2018 to 2022(5 years), I was at 10/90 (stocks/bond OEFs) and did well. In 2023, I'm at 100% bond OEFs doing pretty well. I keep changing my style according to the market. When MM pays over 5%, even 4%, all I need is 3 trades at 2+% to have a great return with very low SD/risk. Owning 2-3 funds makes my life easier.

This low-water situation has been developing over the last few years. The number of ship transits through the canal has been substantially reduced. Additionally, the largest freighters are being required to offload a significant number of containers so as to reduce their depth through the canal and thus not use as much water for the transit.
I've not seen any information regarding possible effects on military ship transit, if in fact there has been any such impact.