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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    “100k is not meaningful to change someone’s life”. I am sure all of us here disagree but that money could pay for life saving medical treatment,,,, put your kid thru four years at a decent enough state school, free a family from debt,, have a down payment and closing costs on a house in some places. Start a retirement account for a young person that will grow over the next 40 years. We all know this with the exception of one person here so I thought I might give him a few reasons why he is so wrong.
  • How to see a mutual fund's average holding period?
    M* Fund Reports include a fund's turnover rate for the past 10 calendar years.
    You may be able to access M* Fund Reports online via your public library system.
    I'm not aware of any websites which provide annual turnover statistics spanning multiple years.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Gary: Doesn't really matter at all how it affects anything. It is HOW YOU WOULD invest it. If I had $10m I would go buy something nice.
    C'mon FD....you never once said how YOU would invest it.
    FD: I thought I did, maybe in another thread. I would just add to my current holdings now an all the way when I started years ago.
    $100K is not meaningful to change someone's life.
    Buying something isn't investing.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @dtconroe- Exactly- same here.
    However...if answering this question prior to maybe five years ago the answer would have been entirely different. The financial positioning is entirely different when comparing accumulation years and preservation years.
  • Lithium Mining - Prospectors in a US Caldera strike "Lith"... (Gold)!
    Exploring for Lithium seems like our modern day "gold rush".
    LAC = Lithium Americas Corp and trade on the NYSE. GM (General Motors) owns 10% and is its largest holder of stock.
    FifthDelta Ltd (a Hedge Fund?) is LAC next largest stockholder. Interestingly, FifthDelta is the largest stock holder of Blackberry. Here's some of their other holdings.
    https://whalewisdom.com/filer/fifthdelta-ltd
    Lithium News
    Yahoo Finance News:
    colossal-cache-lithium-found-us
    McDermitt Caldera (Nevada/Oregon Border) was formed after a massive magma eruption approximately 16.4 million years ago, dredging up untold scores of lithium and other metals. A lake eventually inhabited the caldera, which deposited a layer of sediment spliced with the lithium that today is over 600 feet deep. The result: a clay called smectite.
    But that was just the first lithium injection. Eventually, as volcanic activity heated up again, hot brine containing additional lithium was driven up into the existing smectite, infusing it with even more of it. Now, the clay was no longer just smectite, but a uniquely lithium-rich illite.
    "They seem to have hit the sweet spot where the clays are preserved close to the surface, so they won't have to extract as much rock, yet it hasn't been weathered away yet," Borst told Chemistry World.
    This is good news for miners. Not only is this particular illite more rich in the metal, it's supposedly easier to separate. Plus, the deposits are mostly concentrated in one spot at the southern tip of the pass, limiting the area impacted by mining.
    At least in theory. The extraction of lithium can, depending on the methods used, emit vast amounts of CO2, contaminate groundwater with dangerous heavy metals, and guzzle tons of fossil fuels. Its environmental toll shouldn't be overlooked in the rush to green transportation infrastructure.
    From Science Advances (In depth Article):
    https://science.org
    This back-of-the-envelope estimation is calculated using caldera-wide extrapolation of publicly available drill hole data from Lithium Americas Corp. and Jindalee Resources Ltd. and is not a reporting code-compliant mineral resource estimate that considers economic viability. Even if this estimation is high due to variations in sediment thickness and/or Li grade, the Li inventory contained in McDermitt caldera sediments would still be on par with, if not considerably larger than, the 10.2 MT of Li inventory estimated to be contained in brines beneath the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia (12), previously considered the largest Li deposit on Earth.
  • DARPA Investment Strategy
    Yup. DARPA, IARPA, etc. are places where some nifty bleeding-edge tech comes to life. Might go somewhere and change the world (eg, the internet) or might not do anything -- but often very interesting and exciting stuff. I did some OTE work for DARPA several years ago, and their research RFP/RFIs cross my university inbox regularly....but I've not worked on any DARPA projects recently.
  • DARPA Investment Strategy
    I haven't looked at DARPA efforts for years. I briefly reviewed proposals for them (eons ago) and had a small startup effort funded that wasn't renewed. I am pleasantly surprised if they are getting back to their original mission. For a while, at the beginning of this century, it was my opinion, that DARPA funding was being diverted too much into non-innovative endeavors more related to today's army as opposed to tomorrow's world.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @dtconroe, thanks for the compliment. Wish it were true but it’s not. If I were to believe that I would become full of myself and that has doomed many a trader. All the good traders I knew had particular traits and one was humility. So I try to adhere to that.
    You do a great job staying in your lane. I realize many like you are camped out in money market funds, CDs, and Treasuries and I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. The returns there this year for many not only pay the bills but for some have added to their nest eggs,
    @yogibearbull, yes, three negative years in a row for Treasuries is unheard of. Where go Treasuries goes impacts so many bond categories. So trying to figure out the direction of Treasuries short term (an almost impossible task) is always on my mind. Last year rising short term and long term rates negatively impacted everything in Bondland. That hasn’t been the case in 2023” Just look at the performance of bond funds such as HOBIX, DHEAX, BDKAX, to name just a very few. Even junk corporates have more than hung in there especially @Crash favorite TUHYX and one of my favorites CSOAX.
    Edit. The good traders are the ones who can adeptly trade stocks. While I have more than successfully daytraded stock index futures, equity mutual funds in days gone by and bond funds, my particular trading style doesn’t work for individual stocks. In other words, I can’t trade stocks. I realize my limitations there. It is a risk tolerance thing. Any successful trader or investor needs to find their particular niche and stocks aren’t my niche, That has always frustrated me because many of the thrust indicators I monitor have been spot on calling major bottoms over the past many years.
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    What's 'Morningstar?'
    /ducks
    (I gave up on them years ago.)
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Well … In looking back over 2 years of Grantham threads on MFO it does appear he is largely held in disrepute by this esteemed body. I’d somehow missed that. Feeling the consensus view is generally correct in investing, I will foreswear to never again post Grantham. Should I further entertain his thoughts it will be only as a “closeted” follower.
    That aside, thanks for all the comments & recommendations on what better to read and who better to listen to on investing. Glad some found Housel’s book of value.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Grantham has been wrong for over 10 years, but, as usual, scary stories sell a lot more.
    Who is going to read an interview with someone who says: I don't know what stocks will do in the next 3-6-12 months because nobody does, and BTW, the SP500 was up over 80% since 1980?
    Sure, if someone has been a bear on US stocks since 2010, he will be right sometimes but he missed an unbelievable performance.
    Since I have a special place for Grantham, I kept several of his past great calls.
    ==============
    2010 (link)
    "Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return."
    "International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain."
    FD: reality(link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions.
    =====================
    10/2012 (link) Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks:
    FD: The SP500 made over 32%
    =================
    2015 (link) GMO's Jeremy Grantham has a relatively gloomy outlook for the markets and economy.
    FD: Wrong again and again and again. Why does anybody ask his opinion?
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    +1
    Thanks. All good.
    Yes - it was clear you were referring only to your cash position in the August comments. A bit unfair of me to single out one line.
    I won’t “lock-in” on any so-called prophet. But like to listen to a wide variety. ISTM Grantham received an outsized amount of attention on this board during the final months of 2021. And to that extent, he helped me, and perhaps others, side-step some of the carnage of ‘22. As he hasn’t been mentioned much recently, I decided to post the interview. Grantham was correct on Japan in late ‘21. Felt they were a good bet. I haven’t followed it lately, but it was a very hot market the first half of this year - perhaps the best of any developed economy.
    I have pummeled .John Hussman with criticism over the years. And might react to a post featuring him the same way you did to the Grantham post.
    The bottom line here is: I think David Rubenstein is one of the better on-air interviewers today. (Others are free to disagree.) So I’d listen to any interview of his with someone of prominence - be it Grantham, Hussman, Biden or Trump. In other words, it wouldn’t matter whether I strongly agreed or disagreed with the subject of the interview - because I think Rubenstein is that good.
    Regards
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Hank,
    I’m open to opposing views, but journalists promoting those views should also do a little fact checking of the track record of so-called experts. My investments in CDs are irrelevant because they comprise a small percentage of my overall asset allocation. I never said I was going to all cash or suggesting that others do so. My CDs also are being used as alternative to bonds, not stocks.
    I have followed Grantham’s view for years because the financial press is enthralled by prophets of doom (Hussman is another example). He has been forecasting poor returns for US stocks for at least a decade, while recommending emerging markets and foreign stocks as better alternatives. He has been wrong, year after year. I know this because I am one of the poor fools who followed his bad advice and bought emerging markets funds that have been lousy investments, even after owning them for many, many years.
    I will give Grantham credit for making convincing arguments for his forecasts, even though he’s been wrong. And I fully support his concerns about climate change and the environment.
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    Our local library card gives us full and free access to M* via a log on to the internet from anywhere, with no ads or any other issues to deal with. It is a great service I have used for years.
    [snip]

    My local library provides free access to Morningstar Investment Research Center (MIRC).
    MIRC includes M* articles and videos, fund analyst reports, Portfolio X-Ray,
    newsletters (e.g., FundInvestor, ETFInvestor), and various tools.
    Like you, I've also used this great service for years.
    MIRC will be replaced with an
    "enhanced database experience coming in September."
    "enhanced." LOL LOL LOL. I can't wait.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    See my original comment :Linked solely for those who might be interested in Grantham’s latest views.”
    If the shoe doesn’t fit, don’t wear it.
    Don’t tell me there’s some restriction here against posting out-of-favor / unpopular / or recently unprofitable investment opinion?
    Bloomberg? They are what they are. Lots to criticize there.
    BTW - Did you notice the 18% drop in the S&P last year? I think we’re in agreement that that was only a minor speed-bump in the overall scheme of things. But to many here it was earth-shaking. Surely you’ve noticed the fervent interest now in T-Bills / CDs and a loss of appetite for equities? I’d guess 2 out of 3 investment posts now are on the subject of cash or cash equivalents. In a sense, these investors are singing Grantham’s song.
    Grantham’s bearish equity call (huge U.S. bubble) may be completely bass-ackwards … And yet you posted a month ago (August 2): “I’ve been loading up on CDs and treasuries, with ladders extending out five years in my IRAs and three years in taxable savings. I don’t care if interest rates rise further as I’m happy to be earning better than 5% on all these cash investments.”
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/166524/#Comment_166524
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Why does Jeremy Grantham continue to get press? He has been consistently wrong for years, if not decades. He has been predicting underperformance by US stocks for years, while promoting foreign stocks and emerging markets. And he has been wrong, year after year. Sooner or later his predictions will come true, just like a broken clock is correct twice a day. When that day comes, so what? Anyone who has followed his advice has already lost lots and lots of money.
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    Our local library card gives us full and free access to M* via a log on to the internet from anywhere, with no ads or any other issues to deal with. It is a great service I have used for years.
    [snip]
    My local library provides free access to Morningstar Investment Research Center (MIRC).
    MIRC includes M* articles and videos, fund analyst reports, Portfolio X-Ray,
    newsletters (e.g., FundInvestor, ETFInvestor), and various tools.
    Like you, I've also used this great service for years.
    MIRC will be replaced with an "enhanced database experience coming in September."
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    Our local library card gives us full and free access to M* via a log on to the internet from anywhere, with no ads or any other issues to deal with. It is a great service I have used for years. Also Firstrade has full access as noted above, if you have an account which is free to open.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    I would put it all in PSLV. Sprott Physical Silver or physical silver if I had a place to store it. BRICS will crash the USD eventually, manipulation of metals will end. Silver price will rise once big banks can no longer short gold and silver. Also, could put it all in XRP (ISO20022 coin) probably will do better than silver.
    Just another opinion.
    Whatever happened to the good old days when you could go to an investing forum and see 50 new post a day? I checked out for a couple of years and when I came back everyone left.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @Hank. Van Patrick was the first Detroit sports announcer I can remember also. I remember he did both the Lions and Tigers but I might be wrong. I sorta recall he got fired for being closely associated with one brand of beer and another brand became the new sponsor. I left Detroit in 1973 and I guess Ernie Harwell still had years to go.