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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    I am risk adverse by nature, but without a pension ( except SS) I knew my wife and I would have to depend on our investments for living expenses, vacations weddings etc when we retired.
    Much of what I read pointed out that retiring into a multi year bear market would be a big problem, so we reduced equities after 60, and two years into retirement we are about 40%. If there is a significant pull back will increase it.
    After two or three years into retirement I am more comfortable knowing our basic living expenxes etc.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    After 25 years of retirement my allocation hasn’t changed much. Early on I looked to TRRIX, a 40/60 TRP fund for guidance. Currently own the fund and it’s one of several I watch to try and keep my feet firmly on the ground.
    No X-Ray. Simply broke apart my holdings to get a rough picture.
    Equity 46%
    Foreign / domestic bonds 20%
    Convertible bonds 10%
    Cash 10%
    Precious metals 7%*
    Foreign currencies 5%*
    S&P short position -2%
    Net long equity 44%
    * Some of the metals exposure is direct and some through PRPFX. The currencies are all through PRPFX. I own one long-short fund, making the total short position a bit higher than stated above and the net-long equity a bit lower.
    What the discussion pretty much misses is that not all equities are the same. Some are relatively low volatility, while some can be be quite explosive. Exposure to EM may count as part of your equities, but is more risky than most U.S. domestics. Guess that’s for another day.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    I firmly believe some of these office space can be repurposed to residential apartments, but this takes time that may take over 10 years or more. Right now there is too many empty offices and there is a slow indication of reversing the trend.
    In the meantime, there is still a shortage of affordable single family housing on the west coast. I am concerned for my kids.
  • CD Renewals
    @dryflower...so what is the alternative...buying a SPY -like index with the top holding of AAPL...with a PE of 33, YOY top line down -2.5%, Profit$ down a little more than that, cash on hand now under 2% of total capital unlike recently when it was 25%+...but damn the torpedos or for you youngsters out there YOLO...keep plowing your life savings into the casino?
    Not sure what the class thinks about this comment...but...while we are all sailing in the same ocean, we all experience inflation differently in the water craft we are on....you could argue that your portfolio as a whole gets whacked by inflation but I would also state for example if my annual spend is $150k before taxes annually and that inflation has gone up by +10, +15% (can we talk, be real, who really believes that bullshit that inflation was/is only 5,6,7% the past year) but that $150k is only very tiny % of my overall portfolio, inflation doesn't really impact my lifestyle, spending habits....I can always cut back somewhere. But say if one puts 35-50% of their portfolio in the markets and it gets whacked which is not out of the realm of reasonable possiblities and you add the "real world" inflation...you could get in trouble quickly as a near or in retiree.
    Rule #1 is capital preservation. Live to fight another day. don't get greedy...nothing wrong with ther 5% annual return...so many co workers the past 15 years in their early 50's were saying....all I "need" is 5% a year....until then they kept grinding....
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    So many obstacles now to converting empty office buildings including old zoning laws, and the fear of lost equity in nearby homes to be but a few. Interesting read, but will probably be behind a NYTimes paywall. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/upshot/american-cities-office-conversion.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    “There is an aging office building on Water Street in Lower Manhattan where it would make all the sense in the world to create apartments. The 31-story building, once the headquarters of A.I.G., has windows all around and a shape suited to extra corner units. In a city with too little housing, it could hold 800 to 900 apartments. Right across the street, one office not so different from this one has already been turned into housing, and another is on the way.
    But 175 Water Street has a hitch: Offices in the financial district are spared some zoning rules that make conversion hard — so long as they were built before 1977. And this one was built six years too late, in 1983.”
  • Equal-Weight & Market-Cap Sector ETFs
    @DavidF, RSP is still trailing SPY in your chart.
    Think over a longer term, 5 years and longer, RSP outperforms that of SPY.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, you are getting great inputs from many posters here on your asset allocation. Target date fund’s glide path provides a good starting point for the major asset class allocations, and I use them as a reference point, just as @Observant1 is doing. I am several years older than you are and am approaching retirement too.
    Several years ago, I gradually reduced stock exposure gradually to a 50/25/25 (stock/bond/cash) allocation. This conservative allocation was helpful to navigate through the difficult year of 2022 when both stocks and bonds fell simultaneously. This year has been the quite the reversal as both stocks and bonds move up amidst of banking crisis. Now that the bulk of rate hike is behind us, I am more optimistic that bonds will have more meaningful gain this year with respect to yields (4-5%) and some capital appreciation on the bond prices. T bills, CDs and money market are yielding 5%. And that is good enough for me.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    At 63, my wife and I determined we had reached our “number,” and decided to reduce our equity allocation while both of us were still working. Since we were aware stocks could drop by 50%, we figured to reduce our possible equity loss by allocating 35% (potential 17.5% drop). Of course we missed out on some equity expansion these last 7 years (now 70 and retired 6 yrs) but we slept better.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Roy, the nice thing about investing is the fact that very seldom you can find exceptional funds which defy common concepts such as low expense + index do best over a longer time.
    PRWCX is one of them. In the past I used PIMIX(2010-2017), SGIIX,OAKBX,FAIRX(2000-1 to 2009).
    I started reducing my portfolio in 90+% in stocks, in 2013, 5 years prior to retirement. Most of the bond portion was in PIMIX. Since 2017 (retirement=2018) I have been using about 90% bond OEFs, but I'm a unique bond OEF trader.
    I think 50/50 is a good choice. I would select between the following funds:
    Moderate allocation=PRWCX
    More conservative=WBAIX/WBALX....CFTAX(Tactical-increase/decrease stock %)...FASMX
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    @Roy,
    I'm the same age as you. I started reducing my equity exposure gradually in 2020 or so.
    Last year the stock market "helped" to decrease my equity allocation a bit! :-(
    Portfolio on 12-31-2019
    73% Stocks
    22% Bonds
    5% Cash
    Portfolio on 06-30-2023
    66.0% Stocks
    19.4% Bonds (DOXIX & TIPS)
    14.4% Cash (MM funds)
    I periodically review Vanguard and T. Rowe Price target-date fund portfolios for reference.
    Mostly, I pay attention to the overall stock/bond split. I don't attempt to replicate these target-date funds.
    For example, I don't have dedicated exposure to global/foreign bonds, convertibles, or preferred stocks.
    Portfolio allocations for Vanguard Target Retirement and T. Rowe Price Retirement funds are listed below.
    Please note that T. Rowe Price offers three distinct target-date fund series.
    VTTVX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 32.8%
    Foreign Stock - 21.7%
    US Bond - 28.9%
    TIPS - 4.2%
    Foreign Bond - 12.4%
    TRRHX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 39.11%
    Foreign Stock - 18.44%
    US Bond - 25.88%
    Foreign Bond - 10.45%
    Cash - 5.31%
    Convertibles - 0.51%
    Preferred Stock - 0.25%
    Other 0.05%
    VTHRX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 38.2%
    Foreign Stock - 25.3%
    US Bond - 25.5%
    TIPS - 0.0%
    Foreign Bond - 11.0%
    TRRCX on 05-31-2023
    US Stock - 46.16%
    Foreign Stock - 21.83%
    US Bond - 18.32%
    Foreign Bond - 7.97%
    Cash - 4.80%
    Convertibles - 0.58%
    Preferred Stock - 0.30%
    Other 0.04%
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
    I had been shifting to more bonds and less equities between 2020-21. Then the spam hit the fan.
    I know you love PRWCX. Me, too. In spite of myself, it has grown to 39 percent of my total right now. I try to follow the "rules of thumb," but not with much effort. Those "rules" don't apply to our house in many ways.
    I'm at 50 US stocks.
    8 foreign stocks
    35 bonds.
    ...The rest is "other" or cash held by the funds. Oops, I do own a few single stocks, now.
    I'm 69 later this month.
    Everyone's situation is different. I'm investing primarily for my primary heirs: my son and my wife---his stepmother. He is all of 30, come October. She just turned 50. And she will go back to the Philippines when I'm gone. Much cheaper to live there. We already have a new house already built on the property where she grew up. It was necessary. The old one just fell down into decay.
    One of my biggest priorities is to continue to grow the portion of the portfolio that is not tax-sheltered. Just to increase the amount that is easier for her to get at without all the blessed, lovely, amazing, beautiful, fart-brained tax rules. (I know that INHERITED IRAs are a horse of a different color.)
    In the meantime, I'm not adding any stocks from foreign lands. I have seen the brokerage report to me that a chunk of the dividends "were taxed and held at the source." NHYDY. I don't want to be paying foreign governments, when my portfolio can make money HERE, and because of our specific circumstances, we've owed zero tax for many years, anyhow. I'll hold onto Norsk Hydro. It's been good to me, though the share price has lately dropped. Aluminum. They even mine their own bauxite. And green energy. And they're trying trying trying to buy a Polish recycling outfit. One of the largest aluminum concerns in the world.
    Bond funds: yes. I bought junk at just the wrong time. With patience, I'm seeing it rise, now. The dividends are better than the safer stuff, so I'm riding it back up. My foray into ETFs has been less than satisfactory. I choose-----against my best interest, maybe---- to stay with TRP. Their trading platform and rules can suck spooge, I've found out. ("If you're not going to let me use the "Good Till Canceled" option, you maybe perhaps ought to LET ME KNOW!!!!!.... I.T. doink-brains.) .... With a $5k minimum to trade non-TRP funds, I'll stick with the best of TRP's mediocre bond lineup. So, when I sell my ETFs, that will go into PRSNX. What I already own bond-wise (in T-IRA) is TUHYX and PRCPX.
    Break a leg! My junk is performing very well. But maybe you don't want to own junk. LOTS of places have better bond funds than TRP. I hope you find them. :)
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    No matter what the retirees who are the majority of posters here think, economic well being in the U.S. is not just about the inflation rate. Jobs matter too: https://nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html
    Back in the 1970s, Arthur Okun, an economist who had been a policy adviser to Lyndon Johnson, suggested a quick-and-dirty way to assess the nation’s economic condition: the “misery index,” the sum of inflation and unemployment. It was and is a crude, easily criticized measure. The measurable economic harm from unemployment, for instance, is much higher than that from inflation. Yet the index has historically done a quite good job of predicting overall economic sentiment.
    So it seems worth noting that the misery index — which soared along with inflation during 2021 and the first half of 2022 — has plunged over the past year. It is now all the way back to its level when President Biden took office.
    This remarkable turnaround raises several questions. First, is it real? (Yes.) Second, will ordinary Americans notice? (They already have.) Third, will they give Biden credit? (That’s a lot less clear.)
    The plunge in the misery index reflects both what didn’t happen and what did. What didn’t happen, despite a drumbeat of dire warnings in the news media, was a recession. The U.S. economy added four million jobs over the past year, and the unemployment rate has remained near a 50-year low.
    What did happen was a rapid decline in inflation. But is this decline sustainable? You may have seen news reports pointing out that “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been “sticky,” suggesting that improvement on the inflation front will be only a temporary phenomenon.
    But just about every economist paying attention to the data knows that the traditional measure of core inflation has gone rotten, because it’s being driven largely by the delayed effects of a surge in rents that ended in mid-2022. This surge, by the way, was probably caused by the rise in remote work triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic rather than by any Biden administration policy.
    Alternative measures of core inflation that exclude shelter by and large show a clear pattern of disinflation; inflation is still running higher than it was before the pandemic, but it has come down a lot. If you really work at it, it’s still possible to be pessimistic about the inflation outlook, but it’s getting harder and harder. The good news about inflation, and about the economy as a whole, does look real.
    But are people noticing this improvement? Traditional measures of economic sentiment have become problematic in recent years: Ask people how the economy is doing, and their response is strongly affected both by partisanship and, I believe, by the narratives conveyed by the news media. That is, what people say about the economy is, all too often, what they think they’re supposed to say.
    But if you ask Americans more specific questions, such as whether now is a good time to find a quality job, they typically say yes. At the same time, their expectations about future inflation have declined substantially.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.
    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
    The largest chunk by far of our investments have been in TRAIX/PRWCX for the past ~16-17 years, so the recent move to reduce some of those holdings was a bit difficult because of the emotional attachment as well as the FOMO on future equity gains. We are now roughly 50/50 equity/fixed income---still sufficient equity exposure for growth and nice dividend income from the MM/bond side. Our equity exposure had already been down the past 1 1/2 years as some money my wife inherited had been placed in fixed income rather than TRAIX/PRWCX.
    Would be interested to know at what age many of you started reducing equity exposure as you neared retirement? I am 60 very soon.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    It’s not just “stuff” that has risen in price. Services also. Car towing to the repair shop was more than double what I paid 3-4 years ago, to say nothing of the big check I just wrote to the septic tank pumper, 40-50% higher than five years ago. I am, however, grateful to have someone to haul my s#&t away!
    - You mean that Accord bit the dust?
    - Yep. That’s a job I’d not want - at any price.
    :)
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @Roy, think you are doing the right thing by reduce equity risk as you approach retirement. Five years out is not far away. Shifting more to balanced/allocation funds is another way to increase bond allocation. My high yield and bank loan funds have done well this year; YTD is about 5%. Likely these funds will have a solid year by year end. The rest of short term high quality bond funds are moving along well yielding 5%.
    Watching if the market will broaden out more to smaller caps and cyclicals. If the recession strikes this year, bonds will serve as a ballast when stocks will fall.
  • Larry Summers and the Crisis of Economic Orthodoxy
    It’s not just “stuff” that has risen in price. Services also. Car towing to the repair shop was more than double what I paid 3-4 years ago, to say nothing of the big check I just wrote to the septic tank pumper, 40-50% higher than five years ago. I am, however, grateful to have someone to haul my s#&t away!
  • July MFO Has Been Posted
    July MFO covered GOODX. For those interested in exploring this fund, it has a 2% short term redemption fees <60 days and is a TF fund at the major brokerages I checked. While I understand why a fund would have a 2% lock up fees, I would rather they charge me a higher ER than a 2% lock up fees.
    Over the past 3 years, the fund has gathered close to zero inflows while delivering 80% in cumulative total return. Given the fund's recent good performance, and if we were to believe that the bear market is over, the fund should not worry about short term redemptions and can gather a lot of AUM (currently below <$125M) if they were to get rid of the lock up fees. Prior to the change in fund strategy three years ago, the fund had approx $70M in AUM, after steady outflows for years. I always thought short term redemption fees are a good substitute for closing a fund. Is that what the fund manager trying to accomplish?
    May be @David (David Snowball) could convey the above to the fund manager or invite them to read this post.
    P.S.: I currently do not have a dedicated mid cap fund but would invest in GOODX if there was no STR fees.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Recently reduced our equity exposure by ~6-7% and placed those funds into MM and bond funds. Probably within 5 years of beginning portfolio withdrawals and trying to find a personal comfort zone with volatility as we are in a good position for retirement at this time.
    Most of you can probably take this as a contrarian signal and load up on equities!! :)
  • CD Renewals
    @dtconroe...your question reminds me of a convo I had with my comptroller several years ago...he asked me "what are you going to do when your CDs roll off and the interest rates are lower". I answered I'll make a decision then with the facts and my interpretation of them as I see fit.
    You've done well the past year without the ups/downs that the folks in the market have, likely a little better than SPY without the drawdown, not too shabby.
    It all depends though...most dangerous times in the market are when overvalued, lot of debt floating around everywhere, and investing in the market is very risky several years right before/after you retire, especially if you do not have a govt pension.
    FWIW, I've been 90%+ in laddered Tbills/CDs the past year(s), no regrets, so what if NVDA had a moonshot return the past several weeks, I tip my hat to the folks who invested there, I still earned several years of my annual spend/expenses with the interest from the Tbills....I still dabble with some funds (PVCMX, MRFOX & BLNDX lately) to satisfy my itch to "do something".
    Me, what I am doing, going to buy 6 month, 1 yr and 2 yr Tbills/Notes when they auction over the next couple weeks. I'll step into the market with more "real" monies if we see a -15, -20%+ schmeissing over the next several months.
    Good Health and Good Luck to you, no matter what you decide to do,
    Baseball Fan
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Yeah, small-cap funds tend to be more volatile.
    VTMSX is my only dedicated small-cap fund.
    I ran Portfolio X-Ray for the period ending June 30 earlier today.
    VTMSX constitutes 7.7% of my portfolio.

    Old Ted mentioned that he'd not worry about the performance of a holding that constituted less than 5% of his stuff. I'd not give a small-cap fund any more than such minimal room along with my other stuff.
    But I wish you well with it. I hope you don't need Vanguard's customer "service."
    Thanks!
    I've owned VTMSX for ~10.75 years.
    The fund's longer-term performance has been good when compared to
    the small-blend category (10 Yr. - top 8%; 15 Yr. - top 11%).
    VTMSX returns have lagged S&P 500 returns during these periods since large caps were in favor.
    I don't need to contact Vanguard customer service often but it's definitely not something I look forward to!