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Maybe the word BASED isn't the best but I explained what I do and it all came to me from Buffett. I read other books and articles but none lead me to these ideas.Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
(wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
FWIW, I find it intriguing when individuals reference Buffett even though
their investment process is diametrically opposed to his.
+1Buffett's investment process is focused on purchasing companies with competitive advantages
(wide moats) at a fair price and holding them "forever."
He believes that at least 98% of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade.
FWIW, I find it intriguing when some people reference Buffett although their investment processes
are diametrically opposed.
Odds of a soft landing may have just gotten a little better.
The latest employment report from the Labor Department shows job growth held steady last month, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve may be able to curb inflation without triggering a sharp jump in unemployment. U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs in July. While job growth has moderated, it hasn't come close to stalling, even after the Fed raised interest rates to the highest level in 22 years.
Here are five takeaways from the report.
Keeping up with population growth
Over the last three months, employers have added an average of 217,000 jobs per month. That's down from an average of 312,000 jobs in the first three months of the year, but it's still a healthy pace of growth.
Employers are still adding more than enough jobs each month to keep pace with population growth. Health care, hospitality and construction were among the industries adding jobs in July, while factories and transportation saw modest job cuts.
Historically low unemployment
The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% in July from 3.6% the month before. The jobless rate has hovered in a narrow range for more than a year, hitting a half-century low of 3.4% in April.
Unemployment among African Americans hit a record low of 4.7% that month before rebounding to 6% in June — raising some concerns. In a relief, the African American jobless rate dipped again in July to 5.8%.
It's best to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The figures can be noisy because of the relatively small sample size.
People are earning more
Here's another bit of positive news: Wages are finally outpacing inflation, boosting workers' buying power. Average wages in July were up 4.4% from a year ago. Wage gains have moderated in the last year, but inflation has cooled as well, so workers' paychecks now stretch farther.
For the twelve months ending in June wages rose 4.4%, while prices climbed just 3%. (The inflation rate for the year ending in July will be released next week.)
Coming off the sidelines
The number of people working, or looking for work, increased by 152,000 last month. Importantly, the share of people in their prime working years (ages 25-54) who are in the labor force is growing. After hitting a two-decade high in June, it fell just slightly last month. That's important, because a growing workforce allows the economy to expand without putting upward pressure on inflation.
And it's good news for women
Before the pandemic, women briefly outnumbered men on U.S. payrolls. The ranks of working women fell sharply in 2020, when schools and restaurants were shuttered and many women were forced to leave work to look after family members or for other reasons. Women's share of jobs has been slowly recovering, however, thanks in part to job growth in health care and education — fields where women outnumber men. (In contrast, the male-dominated manufacturing industry lost 2,000 jobs last month.)
As of July, women held 49.9% of all payroll jobs, up from 49.8% the month before.
I am also experiencing some degree of nostalgia with some of the recent posts, especially looking at the past 15 years. Around the 2000 to 2007 period, CDs were paying 5+% and I was shopping banks for the best CD rates and terms. Then the financial markets went into a crisis period, with banks closing, major business closings, and the government cutting rates, stimulating the economy, and trying to focus on financial stabilization and economic growth. I have never seen anything like the Covid years, supply chain and manufacturing disruptions, and the renewed fight against inflation in the last few years. 5+% CDs are back, we are fighting inflation again, but now I am in retirement, focused more on preservation of assets than accumulation of assets. I hope I am around for another 15 years so I can participate in investing philosophy, but the odds are that I will not be alive.“ … in my lifetime as an investor, I haven’t seen cash yields this high ”
Gosh, I do remember earning 15-20% on money market funds during my early working years. :)
Along with that, the aisles in grocery stores (1970s) were often filled with store employees busy changing the previously marked prices to try and keep up with the ongoing increases. Without bar codes / scanners every bottle of ketchup or loaf of bread carried a marked price. One wonders if all this remarking itself contributed to the inflation rate.
No doubt. Cash at today’s 5% (+ -) looks very compelling, especially to the “over the hill” crowd.
That time frame includes a couple very bad years for bonds during the FED rate hikes, so of course averages will be lower. If you look forward as the FED slows and completes their interest rate hikes, those statistics will likely change again for the better for income funds. Just my opinion. That change may have already happened. PIMIX has gained 5% in just the 1st half of 2023. Projection and extrapolating data is a risky business, but, what is to keep income funds from continuing that trend moving forward?I don’t own or track a single bond fund that has produced an average annual return approaching 5% over the past 5 or 10 years
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