Calls on CDs Disclaimer_1: Been investing in CD ladders for about 15 years. I only ever by non-callable and usually go out 3-5 years. And I many times buy CDs on the Secondary Market, but not-so-much in the past several months as the pendulum decisively swung to New Issues.
----------------------------------
To the OP, pretty sure you should expect the majority, if not all of your longer-term, callable CDs to be called in the coming months/years. Just as we were reasonably certain that interest rates would rise this year, I at least am reasonably certain that interest rates will start decreasing in the near future. And, the difference between callable and non-callable is generally not greater than 0.5%.
----------------------------------
On the issue of buying only shorter term CDs of say 2 years...Well, that is, how shall I say, short-sighted, and those investors who want to replace their maturing CDs in 2 years are likely going to be feeling a wee bit of buyer's regret.
Example using current listing of Fido CDs:
You are looking at CDs today. You only want non-callable CDs and you only want to go out a max of 2 years. So you buy the best 2-yr, non-callable CD that Fido has to offer at 4.95%.
In two years it matures and you are looking for another 2-yr, non-callable CD to replace it. In 2 years, you will need to find a 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CD to equal the same rate that you could have had in hand IF you had bought today's best 4-yr, non-callable CD at 4.60%.
Good luck with that. I'm reasonably certain that 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CDs will NOT be available in May 2025.
Always best to put together an EXCEL spreadsheet and drop in the rates that are available NOW for respective periods, and determine what rate you will need upon maturing of a shorter-term CD (2 yrs in this example) to meet or exceed the rate of the currently available longer-term CD (4 yrs in this example).
----------------------------------
Disclaimer_2: Future interest rates are usually WAGs.
BUT, in the last say 6-12 months, it was something short of that as we were reasonably certain they were going UP, and we could even reasonably project where they would peak.
Likewise, at this point, I at least am reasonably certain that rates will start going DOWN in the near future, but not anywhere near as capable of projecting how low they might go.
So, my money, in this example, is on buying the 4-yr, 4.60% non-callable CD today as I have little-to-no expectation that a 2-yr, 4.25% non-callable CD will be available in May 2025.
EDIT: The other argument against buying shorter term CDs, e.g., a current 1-yr, 5.15%, non-callable, is that the best money market funds are paying about the same, with VMRXX currently at 5.03% and FZDXX currently at 4.88%.
------------------------------------
And speaking of potential buyer's regret, recall that 4-yr, 5+%, non-callable CDs were widely available for a brief period not so long ago. Here's hoping that many here participated when we hit peak rates AND thought long-term!
YMMV.
Calls on CDs All of them are callable except some of the shorter term ones. Non-callable CDs tend to have much lower yields.
I have bought about 15 CDs this past year from Schwab, that were non-callable, but I did not buy anything longer than 2
years. I just went on Schwab, and looked at their 3, 4, and 5 year CDs and it appears to be primarily non-callable CDs on their menu of offerings. I have no interest in callable CDs, have no intention of buying a callable CD in the future, so apparently I am not facing the same dilemma you are describing. Good luck!
Calls on CDs I’ve been building CD ladders in my IRA and taxable savings accounts now that yields are so high. My IRA ladder extends to five years with a yield higher than 5%. However, I’ve been wondering if the longer term CDs will end up being called in if interest rates drop, and how quickly. It’s been so long since yields on cash were this high that I have no frame of reference. Does anyone recall past circumstances when CD yields were high and then dropped? I’m perfectly happy earning a 5% yield and will reinvest maturing CDs if yields stay high, particularly after the bond fund fiasco of the past year or so.
In case of DEFAULT One problem is that legislative Acts that are passed are applicable for years/decades and many are touted to be budget-neutral when passed. But that is based on wild guesstimates of future economy, taxes, consumer and business behaviors. Many Acts are front-loaded for benefits/effects and back-loaded for revenue generation. So, it is hard to quantify their effects on annual budget deficits.
Of course, there is an obvious budget deficit when the the FY budgets are passed, often with long delays, but that is the time to simultaneously adjust the debt-ceiling. If the FY budget is balanced, then there won't be any need to adjust the debt-ceiling.
Keep in mind that the context of the 14th Amendment was the Civil War debt but it is written in a very broad way.
In case of DEFAULT Not a lawyer by a far stretch but to me, there cannot be a ceiling for debt that has already been incurred by Congress itself.
I hope this goes to the SC and the entire silly concept of debt ceiling gets busted once and for all in favor of making spend decisions during the budget process only.
Budgets, and the incurred debt from a long list of previous administrations, is not just a focus on spending, but also on income/revenue. In recent
years, the biggest factor that increased our national debt, was a result of Trump and the Republicans decreasing taxes for the wealthy and corportations. It is popular to talk about "spending", but collecting income/revenue is equally important.
VIX 16.47 / Down 50% over past year Tend to agree with Shipwreck. I’ve long kept a minuscule position in SPDN as part of a hedge position (SPDN = around 2% of portfolio). Doesn’t amount to a hill of beans, but tempers downside on some days and allows for taking more risk in other areas. (And I expect to lose $$ on it.) So the thought today was to sell SPDN and move temporarily into TAIL which more closely corresponds to changes in the VIX. I believe it would provide a better offset near term were someone so inclined. But decided against it. One problem is knowing when to move back out.
The charts back to 2020 show a reading of 16 on VIX to be very low. On a couple instances it dropped to around 10 - but didn’t stay there long. TAIL (etf) has been hampered in recent years by extremely low returns on treasury bonds in which it invests. So, I’m thinking that now with higher rates its better days (as an effective hedge) are probably ahead.
Heads Up - If you’re wondering what turned the markets around in the last hour today, it may be related to Mitch McConnell making a statement around 3 PM saying he believes the deficit dispute will be resolved in time to avoid default. Just my guess. As far as bearish sentiment today, that came in part from Evercore’s Ed Hyman interviewed on Bloomberg extensively this AM. (I actually copped some of Hyman’s concerns in writing my OP.)
In case of DEFAULT I've lived in TX for 17 years and moved from CA. TX today is very different than what it was in 2006. I wouldn't move to TX today. This is a state full of nut jobs at every level of government. Abbott and Patrick would make Taliban proud.
TX lack of income tax is more than offset by high property taxes, high insurance bills and bare minimum services for residents.
Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: People are worried about oil stock buybacks ESG investors tend to reward companies with good ESG scores (like green-energy companies) and penalize companies with bad ESG scores (like oil companies).IMHO most investors just look for an ESG label slapped onto a company or fund. Many ratings services rate companies relative to their industry peers, meaning that you'll have as many top rated oil companies (percentage-wise) as any other sector.
Our assessment is industry relative, using a seven-point AAA-CCC scale.
MSCI,
ESG Ratings Methodology, April 2023.
Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES) has received a AAA rating in the MSCI environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings for 2021 after earning AA ratings from MSCI ESG for 10 consecutive years.
Hess press release, Oct 11, 2021.
BlackRock remains a signatory to the net zero initiative and its iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF holds a host of oil and gas producers, including Exxon, which has a larger weighting than Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc., and Chevron, which has a larger weighting than Walt Disney Co. Similarly, Exxon is the seventh-largest holding in the SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF, which also owns Schlumberger, ConocoPhillips and EOG Resources Inc
Bloomberg,
ESG Investors' Best Intentions Slam Into Surging Oil Stocks, March 15, 2023 (
via FA-Mag, no paywall)
There's ESG investing from a risk perspective (i.e. use ESG considerations in evaluating the business prospects for companies- how well are they mitigating risks); ESG investing from what I choose to call a "feel good" perspective (negative screens - I won't personally profit from bad acts); impact investing (improving behaviour of companies, improving their business prospects). These are all different, though they're all labeled (marketed) as ESG.
If your cost of capital is high, near-term projects are worth relatively more and long-term projects are worth relatively less, so you will focus on the short termThis a very serious issue in developing countries that cannot afford long term investments. The world (IMF, etc.) needs to establish better lending policies. Instead, we have oil companies putting money into short term foreign projects in exchange for building roads (that are used to transport equipment) and schools and internet infrastructure and providing needed jobs, turning villages into company towns.
Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: People are worried about oil stock buybacks If you are the chief executive officer of an oil company, and you believe this, what should you do about it? What is the best way to create long-term value for your shareholders?
Therein lies the problem with this analysis. It assumes CEOs care about creating long-term value. In my experience and research, most executives don’t care about this. They think short-term, about the next quarter’s earnings, not about five or ten
years down the road. Their compensation packages, their bonuses, are generally built around hitting or exceeding short-term earnings targets.
A CEO is often just a hired gun who if he hits these short-term profit targets can make a fortune and cash out of their stock options bonuses at their earliest convenience, even if their short-term decisions destroy the company five or ten
years down the road. Share buybacks fit nicely—for them—into this model. Buybacks create a short term boost in earnings per share and the stock price. This short-term mindset, pervasive on Wall Street, is destructive to businesses, our economy, and in the case of the oil industry regarding climate change and renewable energy, which requires long-term thinking and investment, our entire planet. Changing how executives are compensated could help correct the problem.