Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    ”Same manager since 1997” Thanks for the follow through Yogi. Very interesting.
    Somewhere I heard this fund was more volatile than most but also more profitable. I’ll confess to often reading a forum that’s quite focused on gold / miners. And while I’m strictly an amateur observer there, it appears from what I read that there are stark differences in how different p/c mining companies have fared in recent years. Apparently this relates to the “sporadic” quality of various mines they own. Some have prospered while others have lost tons. Possibly OPGSX is intentionally investing in the under-performers as a longer term play.
    I guess it bothers me that M* allows fund houses to post its “4 and 5 star” ratings (I’d imagine in return for compensation) as testimony / advertisement for their funds on their websites and than undermines that very rating in publishing critical reviews for readers willing to fork over additional $$ to see what their analysts really think about a fund. ISTM they’re making $$ on both ends here.
  • What to do?
    Yes, COWZ is up already by 7.5% YTD on saturday, 11 feb, '23.
    SCHP= TIPS. (Schwab.)
    FCBFX. 58% in triple B. (Fidelity corporate.)
    HYMU. Munis. (Blackrock.)
    Balanced: DODBX. Over 15 years, it's in top 7 percent of category. +7.63%.
    Global stocks: YTD +8.42%. (TRP.) PRGSX . Over 15 years: +7.82%, top 18% of category.
    52 USA. 43 foreign, presently.
    Maybe SCHP is an Indexer. None of the others.
    VMIAX. Basic Materials/Chemicals. (Vanguard. Stinky service.). YTD +6.49%. Over 15 years: +7.47, top 22 percent in category.
    Single stocks for steady dividends: BHB. (I own it.) Regional bank in Northern New England. HQ in Bar Harbor, Maine. That's where Acadia National Park is. Branches in ME, NH, VT.
    O is the mother of all REITS. Over 15 years, it's up by +10.45%. Dividends to reinvest. But I don't know how they keep doing it. The payout ratio is a huge, out of line number... But REITS are different animals, too. Since 1994, the stock is up by +730%. That's not a typo.
    (Among REITs, I own PSTL. But it's still rather young.)
    "Happy Motoring!"
    "No, No, NO! Don't open that closet!"
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Same manager since 1997.
    Gold-mining has been terrible for B&H and being top performer in category for 3,5,10 years doesn't mean much. * ratings are based on past performance only within the category, and overall * rating is a weighted average of *s for 3, 5, 10 years.
    Analyst ratings take into account several factors besides the past performance. However, Analyst ratingsQ are computer-generated and are hard to read or make sense out of. It's NeutralQ here. May be M* can train ChatGPT to do a better job.
  • Rondure Global's 4Q22 commentary
    Thanks for the thoughts, @MikeM. For now, I'll be coasting with what I already own. Stinky week, this week.
    Geritz and Foster write with candor. But their records are less than great. Matthews would maybe love to get Foster back there. I'm sure he'd not even think about it at this point. Some years ago, I owned his Seafarer fund. Not much to write home about. I'm staying away from EM. It always just burns me.
  • No conviction in this Market
    Good thoughts from @catch22. Generally people’s time horizon seems to have grown shorter in recent years. We live in an age of “instant everything.” There’s a lot in Barron’s this week about the frenzied buying and selling of ”end-of-day options” by both professional traders and individuals alike. In effect, plunk some $$ down on a speculative bet (going either long or short) at 9:30 AM and than “cash-out” the same afternoon. One market observor predicted this craze might even lead to a *“flash-crash”. It’s definitely contributing to the greater volatility. ISTM I read that last Friday was the single largest options trading day in history. Perhaps @Crash is seeking conviction where there is none - or precious little.
    It is also possible the increased volatility is a precursor to a large move either up or down. If markets were to drop sharply, I know more than one prognosticator who will get caught flat-footed. There’s actually quite a bit of bullish sentiment out there as I think some numbers posted by @yogibearbull earlier today substantiate.
    Here’s Marty Zweig calling the October 1987 *flash crash. The Monday following the show, the Dow fell 22.6% - most of that in just a few hours late in the day. Advance video to the 6:30 mark where Zweig is introduced.

    Here’s a Wikipedia Article on the Flash Crash of 1987
  • Yield curve most steeply inverted since early 80s / Bridgewater's Karniol-Tambour on recession risk
    Not a market call on my part. Karniol-Tambour (video) is looking out months - or even years. So I don’t feel she’s necessarily making a market call either. But I do think her longer term outlook is supported by the increasingly strident interest rate talk coming from various Fed officials this week plus recent / continuing movements in the bond market. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasury bond as of this morning is the most inverted since the early 1980s with the 2 year Treasury yielding 85 b/p more than the 10-year . A steep inversion has often in the past been a good indicator of approaching recessions. (Just because I’m paranoid doesn't mean there won’t be one … )
    Karniol-Tambour is the newest member of Bridgewater’s 3-person investment team. She does not (to my recollection) address the inverted curve.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    From @msf quoted,

    "hold an annuity in an IRA"

    Teachers have had this dreadful option for years...
    Variable Annuities (products) wrapped in a 403b.
    Wonder if these VAs will get the same RMD treatment (relief) as QLACs?
    Some teachers contribute to a mixed bag of Variable Annuities and non-VA mutual funds as part of their 403b portfolio. After retirement, the VAs get annuitized and the non-VAs often get rolled over into Traditional IRAs.
    TIAA CREF Summary:
    https://tiaa.org/public/pdf/Consultant_SECURE_Act_Summary_Flyer.pdf
    403b QLAC:
    https://businessofbenefits.com/2015/05/articles/uncategorized/the-403b-qlac/
  • Interesting YTD dichotomy BRK.B vs AAPL
    I was sorta like Buffet Didn't want to buy anything I didnt understand and I thought Jobs was a jerk. But letting your emotions govern your investments is usually a bad idea, although there are some lines I can't cross, like "META". I am glad I help my nose on TSLA recently. It is far more profitable than any other car company.
    A friend loaded up on APPL after seeing how popular the original iPod was.
    Having used a iPad and and iphone for years, the contrast between these products and my wife's Android phone is night and day.
    I am amazed the closed architecture has not been a bigger selling point for security with the business community. Not sure why APPL hasn't captured more of this market, but it maybe switching and legacy costs.
  • Anybody know when the 2022 (December ‘22) Annual Report for DODBX will be available?
    I find it one of the better, more thorough looks at the markets overall plus a good glimpse into D&C’s approach. Most years a 6-month old semi-annual report (June ‘22) would suffice. But so many shifts in both bonds and equities since June, would really like to get a look at their end of 2022 report - actually for all their funds but especially DODBX.
  • Secure Act 2.0 rewind, Age 72 b-day in 2023 receives a one year RMD deferral
    The other new twist is you can convert up to $200,000 ( used to be $160,000 I think) or 25% of your IRA into a QLAC tax free, so you can lower your RMD. I have not dug into it yet, but I think you can pick an annuity date at anytime in the future, and one that would still return money to your heirs.
    I feel that deferred income annuities are one of the rare positive innovations in financial services in years. But that doesn't make QLACs a great idea.
    As Kitces wrote in 2015, using QLACs for the purpose of reducing RMDs, doesn't pay off. It's their value as longevity insurance, not as an RMD reduction mechanism, that makes them worthwhile.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/why-a-qlac-in-an-ira-is-a-terrible-way-to-defer-the-required-minimum-distribution-rmd-obligation/
    He also suggested that the 25% limit helped people to avoid a liquidity squeeze - where they didn't have enough left in their IRA to fund retirement before their deferred annuity started monthly payments.
    What SECURE 2.0 changed:
    - instead of a $125K limit, adjusted for inflation (that's where the $160K figure comes from), it is reset to $200K, still adjusted for inflation;
    - the 25% limit is removed
    - QLAC monthly payments, once they begin, can be used to satisfy not only the RMD requirement of the annuity but also of the remaining IRA balance, potentially lowering the RMD withdrawals required of the non-annuity portion of the IRA.
    https://www.klgates.com/SECURE-20-Act-Legislation-Includes-Significant-Changes-to-Individual-Retirement-Accounts-1-31-2023
    What did not change:
    - must start payments by age 85
    - return of principal to heirs is permitted
    Original QLAC regs
  • Markets Await Powell’s Address Tuesday
    @hank et al David Rubenstein is an excellent interviewer, if you've had a chance to watch his shows over the years; and he is well versed in the investment world from many years in that world. He's doing a chit-chat with Tom Keene just now (2:08pm) about the Powell interview.
  • PRISX, some single stocks: regional banks
    Bank of Princeton was to be acquired some years ago by Investors Bank in NJ; however, the deal fell through. Investors was later acquired by Citizen Financial Group early last year.
    Earnings news release from the SEC website:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913971/000119312523016226/d441956dex991.htm
  • Seafarer Overseas Value Fund adds co-portfolio manager
    Great to see he's adding some support for the fund. This helps assuage my concerns that they might liquidate it because of its small size. Not that much info that I can find on Brent Clayton. Found this:
    "Brent Clayton has been investing in frontier and emerging markets equities for the past ten years at LR Global, a boutique asset management firm that spun out of the Rockefeller family office. He joined LR Global as an equity analyst in 2007 and became a co-portfolio manager in 2012 in conjunction with the launch of the firm’s Frontier Markets -dedicated equity strategy. He also has helped build, train, and manage a Hanoi-based fundamental research team in support of this fund.
    Brent received a B.A., cum laude, from Dartmouth College with a concentration in Government and a minor in Portuguese. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder."
  • PRISX, some single stocks: regional banks
    Why do you think BPRN earnings just spiked? We drove there frequently several years ago when kid was at Princeton. I was always surprised at the construction and new condos etc, all high end, given the NJ tax climate.
    Sorry, no. I meant share price, not earnings. My own school sits right next to the University:
    "...Founded in 1812 under the auspices of Archibald Alexander, the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church (USA), and the College of New Jersey (now Princeton University), it is the second-oldest seminary in the United States." (I think Harvard Divinity is the oldest?)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_Theological_Seminary
    **********
    **********
    Chart:
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/bprn/chart
    BPRN is up +14.14% in 3 months!
    YTD: +12.99%!!!!!
    https://thebankofprinceton.com/
    EDITED to add: SMMF, a regional bank in the Eastern Panhandle of WV serving that locale plus the Wash. D.C. exurbs and the Shenandoah Valley in Virginia. A merger is ALREADY accomplished with Provident State Bank (PSBP) which has HQ on the Eastern Shore of MD in Preston. The Summit name will be kept.
  • PRISX, some single stocks: regional banks
    Why do you think BPRN earnings just spiked? We drove there frequently several years ago when kid was at Princeton. I was always surprised at the construction and new condos etc, all high end, given the NJ tax climate.
  • Fidelity Private CRE Fund
    Fidelity has jumped into private commercial real estate (CRE). This FIDELITY CORE REAL ESTATE FUND fund requires investor accreditation, $25K initial minimum, +$5K additional monthly additions, ER 1.0% plus 12.5% of performance over +5%.
    Fund will not be listed or traded on exchanges.
    After 3 years of operations, quarterly redemptions up to 5% of fund assets allowed at the option of Fidelity.
    It is suggested as an addition to traditional 60-40 stock-bond portfolios.
    Note that Blackstone BREIT and Starwood SREIT have been in the news due to reaching their quarterly 5% redemption limits.
    TIAA Real Estate Account VA QREARX is different in that it its Liquidity Guarantee (from TIAA) allows quarterly redemptions of any amount.
    Listed real estate funds behave differently due to their leverage and market factors. Examples include VNQ, XLRE, FRESX, and hybrid FRIFX. Fidelity also has multi-asset FMSDX that combines stocks-bonds-alternatives.
    An interesting time for Fidelity to enter private CRE area.
    May be @TheShadow can find more information on its filing.
    Video https://www.fidelity.com/go/alternative-investments-core-real-estate?ccsource=em_Promo_1057918_1_0
    Video Transcript https://media.fidelity.com/assets/Fidelity.com_VMS/868/695/CoreRealEstateVideoTranscript_1.17.23.pdf
    Limited SEC/Edgar Info https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1953520/000195352023000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml
  • Default Denialism is real
    ”I liked the "old" Barron's far better. I could leisurely mull over the articles all weekend … Unfortunately, I can't even get the print edition delivered at my house anymore. Now it is mailed so it doesn't arrive until Tuesday some weeks.”
    Not in a position to compare the “old” and “new” Barron’s. Read the paper edition regularily in the 80s before losing interest. Only in the past 3 or 4 years have I again become a regular reader. But I do find Barron’s better at what it does than any other financial publication I’ve sampled in recent years. I’d guess you’re correct if you believe it was “better” 25+ years ago. I find virtually every print magazine or newspaper I read to fall into that category. Recently resubscribed to The New Yorker. While still worth the price of admission, it doesn’t compare in content to 10 years ago.
    As you might be aware, the Amazon Kindle editions of WSJ & Barron’s are essentially the same as the print editions in terms of stories and photos / art work. Look forward to my Barron’s arriving every Saturday morning. However, there may be some omitted charts / data. The Kindle format doesn’t support such very well. Not an issue for me because so much data can still be pulled up for free online.
    * Those reading Barron’s on a Kindle app may find it necessary to re-format it (using various embedded settings) to make it appear correct. I suspect some don’t read it on Kindle due to not being familiar with all the available settings.
  • Default Denialism is real
    ”Not for the timid.”
    Hell no. Nearest thing to gambling available under the guise of “investing” I know of. Getting burnt badly a few times is probably part of the game. To demonstrate what can happen, following are the M* returns over a bad 3 year stretch for a “5-star” rated gold (miners) mutual fund. Since I presently own the fund, I won’t name it.
    2013 -48.83 - 47.83%
    2014 -15.39%
    2015 -23.14%
    All three were down years. A $100 initial investment would have been worth less than $33.50 at the end of that run, Though I haven’t identified the fund, one will find those numbers quite similar to the M* “category” averages for the years mentioned.
  • Apple’s Earnings Miss Target / NASDAQ Futures Decline
    The money Google spends on their employees is mind boggling. My son's best friend works there.
    2 or 3 free high end meals a day, multiple services, allowed to work anywhere in the world
    A few years ago the average bonus was $80,000. Probably not this year.