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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation
    @Jim0445. That sounds very strange. The fund is supposed to be open to additional purchases for existing shareholders. You could call a different brokerage and ask that if you transferred your account would they allow you to add to your shares. Heck I'd be interested in buying a few shares :) :)... Been wanting to get into TRAIX for years...
    MikeW in Fund Discussions
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    No, but I did include a news release from the US Attorney's office Southern District of New York:
    https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founder-and-former-chief-investment-officer-infinity-q-sentenced-15-years-prison
    TheShadow TheShadow in Fund Discussions
  • What day did WSJ include their first quarter report ?
    @Derf,
    Not exactly. Since April 1 fell on a Saturday, there was no way the results would be ready on Monday. It seems to depend on when the dates fall. For example, if the first of the month was on a Tuesday, it is possible the monthly results could be ready the upcoming Monday provided there was no holidays. The WSJ used to publish a yearly calendar on when certain articles were to be published, but I have not seen the calendar for a couple of years.
    Here is the mediakit page where you can find the editorial calendar page:
    https://mediakit.wsjbarrons.com/p/1
    Here is the editorial calendar/reports calendar for 2023:
    https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:65e5d3c4-8bd1-3851-8704-d37d41372971
    TheShadow TheShadow in Other Investing
  • Merrill - its "cents-less" difficulty with money market funds
    It's been so long since I used a MMF with Merrill …
    It’s been a long time since I remember folks getting excited about money market funds. About 40 years. The 80s as I recall. :)
    BTW - If anybody missed it, this week’s Barron’s notes that municipal money market funds are now yielding a nice return. Around 4%. May be better than the plain vanilla variety - depending on tax bracket. Appears, however, they are not quite as secure as the taxable ones.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    @Old_Joe, if bond funds have already suffered the FEDs rate hikes, might they be a better alternative 2+ years down the road. I do understand trying to lock in a safe 5%+, but according to the yield curves that may not be feasible.
    MikeM MikeM in Other Investing
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Yes, what I was really looking for was something decent about two years out, but don't see anything at all like that.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Gold is taxing Form 8621
    FYI for anyone interested in investing in Gold and other precious metals.
    I have had small amounts in Gold over the years and have discovered several irritating tax issues.
    GLD pays for it's expenses buy selling a bit of the gold every month. This generates income for you the fund owner that has to be calculated and reported, usually as short term if I remember
    Last year I decided to buy some PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Fund and the website promised that if you complete a form 8621 you can avoid paying the 28% long term tax rate on collectibles.
    This is true, but 8621 is a real PIA that makes K-1 look simple. I think I figured it out, but it has to be filed with your 1040 and TurboTax will not support it. So you have to file by paper.
    Sprott is considered a foreign investment, even though it is traded in US.
    sma3 in Other Investing
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    ”Jeremy Grantham had a long piece years ago, predicting dramatic increases in price of food and agricultural products for a number of reasons.”

    Yep - I’ve been thinking that way. But most of this stuff has really run up in price the past several years. I’d be cautious at this point.
    Spent hours looking at possibilities. Nothing stood out as a bargain. In the end, decided to sell just the silver miner. Replaced it with a CEF that monkeys around in the precious metals / commodities sectors. The second one (an industrial metals miner) appears on closer examination to be reasonably priced. So hung on to it. With a pair of largely speculative holdings like this I try to keep them in balance. If one runs out ahead, clip some and add to the other. Reduces risk to a degree. When both are falling together it’s time to move from single malt to blended.
    My 2-cents worth …
    - RAAX looks like an excellent longer term hold if somebody wants exposure to natural resources (notwithstanding valuations are rich). Actively managed. Appears to alter its allocation to various VanEck and non-house ETFs based on a proprietary formula. Appears heavily weighted to gold / precious metals at present. The .87% management fee is quite high as ETFs go. For a substantial portfolio spot, however, I’d prefer something passively managed and tied to an index. With volatile assets like this I think it’s better to be widely spread out and not have a manager trying to second guess which way markets will move. But longer term I’m confident they will do a fine job with the fund.
    - Looked long and hard at GRES. Morningstar rates it “gold”, but notes the IQ management team isn’t the best. What I like is the broad diversification across a wide spectrum of the natural resources markets. Few if any holdings reach or exceed 2% of portfolio. Timber and Ag are included, though you wouldn’t know it from M*’s description. It’s passively managed, sticking to a proprietary index and rebalancing quarterly. The .30% ER is excellent. What concerns me is the low AUM which Fido puts at $37 mil. One wonders how long it will survive. The other concern is that within the past few years the index it adheres to and methodology were both modified for reasons unknown. Plus, as I’ve mentioned before, I tried a couple other funds of theirs and was disappointed.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank
    I hoped WSKY was the ticket for single malts, and if they liquidated ( which they eventually did for lack of interest) they would pay me in liquid assets, but no.
    I have spent some time looking at ETFs that are plays on the EV and climate change "revolutions" along with commodities and resources that will become more expensive with climate change. There are a lot of ETFs investing in metal futures that will be necessary for EVs, like Lithium, Copper rare earths etc. You would think they would take off like rockets, but the general decline in commodities, with increased recession fears has crushed many of them, but others like Silver are up 25% in six months.
    Jeremy Grantham had a long piece years ago, predicting dramatic increases in price of food and agricultural products for a number of reasons. I started looking at commodities back then, but it was pretty early. After a bump from the war in Ukraine, agricultural commodities have been relatively flat, but not down like the metals.
    It is hard for individual investors like us to make sense of this, without "inside" knowledge, and I am not sure that even the actively managed funds have this kind of expertise. Who would predict that bird flu would kill mostly egg laying chickens, rather than birds raised for meat?
    I think it makes sense to own a variety of funds with different focus, in addition to a general commodity fund. COM has been mentioned here before and so far seems less volatile than most.
    sma3 in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    ARTKX is categorized as international large cap value. I compared its metrics to a ARTGX plus a bunch of ILCV funds. What stood out was the ARTVX had a far lower Ulcer Index than its peers, so I ran a second screen for ILCV funds with an APR over 10 and an Ulcer Index under 10. I sorted those by Sharpe ratio and checked the correlation of the three most promising to ARTKX.
    Franklin Templeton International Low Vol, Hi Div ETF (LVHI) - better than ARTKX in every way over the past three years except total return LVHI book 15%, ARTKX 21%. The R2 is 85.
    Causeway International Value (CIVIX) - same returns, higher volatility. The R2 is 96.
    Fidelity International Value (FIVLX) - lower returns (17 vs 21%), comparable Ulcer Index (7.2 vs 6.5). High correlation (98) to Artisan, which implies they're playing the same game but Artisan is playing it better.
    Artisan Global Value (ARTGX) - high correlation (97) but slightly trails ARTKX in pretty much all metrics.
    All are top tier since the screen started with low Ulcer / high returns.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
    wdavidsnowball in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Perhaps we should look into @LB article on Barron’s with respect to active foreign funds/ETFs. Thanks to @yogibearbull, he has summarized these funds.
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60940/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2023-q1-april-10-2023#latest
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Several Matthews Asia funds were mentioned.
    I personally would stay away from all Matthews Asia funds in the near-term (possibly long-term).
    There has been an exodus of talent at the firm over the past few years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152046
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/156101
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159415
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Excerpted from a CityWire article published on 04/07/2023.
    "James Velissaris, the founder, former CIO and lead portfolio manager of Infinity Q Capital Management, was sentenced to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay an unspecified amount of restitution by US District Judge Denise Cote on Friday afternoon in Manhattan."
    "Velissaris, 38, of Atlanta, pleaded guilty in November 2022 to one count of securities fraud in a deal with federal prosecutors in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York that dropped several other felony charges and required him to forfeit $22m. The charges came about as a result of his role in a $1bn fund overvaluation scheme, with federal officials publicly levying their accusations in early 2022."
    Link (paywall)
    I'm glad that Mr. Velissaris received a lengthy prison sentence for the serious crimes he committed.
    Hopefully, this case will deter others in the financial industry from engaging in fraudulent schemes.
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Interesting “Up & Down Wall Street” column this week written by Andy Serwer (whom I can’t recall ever reading before). Writes with a nice flair.
    Extended excerpt: “To my mind, Dimon is essentially making the point that no amount of regulation can ever anticipate or mitigate humankind's ability to make mistakes and get into trouble—intentionally or not. And that got me thinking about John Maynard Keynes and his notion of animal spirits:
    ‘Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.’
    In other words, we human beings act irrationally, which makes for bursts of creativity in the arts and, yes, even on Wall Street, but inevitably precipitates overexuberance in capital markets and bank runs. It also means that there is probably some limit on the marginal utility of incremental units of regulation, I suppose.” *
    -
    Put in that context, the recent bank run has the scent of the great toilet paper run of only a few years ago. Both an outgrowth of human irrationality. Now, which inflicted more hardship?
    *Source: Barron’s April 9, 2023 (Print Edition)
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank, only the precious metal funds may own physical commodities.
    Thanks. Guessing it’s a SEC limitation? I hadn’t thought about it, but any I’ve ever owned were based on derivatives. And I remember riding one into the ground at Oppenheimer during the last commodities bear market. The #**# thing (QRAAX) crashed and burned. Was finally shut down after 20 years in existence.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Excellent article by @LewisBraham.
    ————
    Addition: Similar thought process to LB for long term investment philosophy. Currently we invest in several funds mentioned for a number of years. We are fortunate to found Andrew Foster when he was running at Matthews Asia Growth & Income fund. Today we invest in both Seafarer funds. In April’s commentary @davidSnowball presented a detailed profile on Seafarer Oversea Value fund.
    We also invest with Patrick English’s team, FMIJX, a risk-adverse abd USD-hedged oversea fund.
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Thanks for commenting @Observant1 - I appreciate links so much more when folks add a personal comment. Generally, the only time I’ll watch a linked video is if the poster has commented on it.
    Benz’s “Buckets” conjure up an image of somebody in a Bonanza - like western walking to and from the well. Prefer “allocation model” myself, although the label doesn’t matter much. In both personal and financial affairs I’m usually better off having a disciplined approach. So I’d be lost without my allocation model written down and securely stored among the digital archives. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on viewpoint) mine is a whole lot more complex than Benz’s. It’s evolved over nearly 25 years in retirement as my knowledge base has grown, opportunities available have multiplied and age has advanced. I’d hate being still crammed into the same “bucket(s)” today as a quarter-century ago.
    Benz is no Einstein, but she appears generally well versed on the fund landscape as one would expect from Morningstar. I think 25-30 years back when I was in the process of ditching the Templeton assigned “advisor” (commanding a 4%+ front load) and developing my own self directed investment approach Benz’s advice would have been both stimulating and helpful. Today, not much. I think she’s appealing mainly to inexperienced investors.
    Some pertinent thoughts / observations:
    - Benz leads off characterizing bonds as a portfolio-wrecking “torpedo” in 2022. An interesting analogy, though I might have said “weighty anchor”. Equities could have have sunk your investment sloop even faster and driven it deeper than bonds last year, depending, of course, on which ones.
    - Benz suggests holding 1-2 years worth of cash reserve to “ride out” rough stretches of the market. Surely this is optimistic. While not one to hold a lot of cash myself, in reading others’ posts over the years it appears that her suggested 1-2 years worth of cash reserve is on the low end. Some well-versed investors here who subscribe to the “rainy day” approach have been known to hold anywhere from 3 to 5 years’ supply of cash to draw on in event of a prolonged bear market - a more realistic time frame. (Either you have religion or you don’t.)
    - Just 3 buckets seems rather basic - actually pretty simplistic.
    - The contents of Benz’s buckets appear to slosh around a bit. She mentions international funds “might be” an asset to include today. OK. Probably good advice. But a staunch “bucketeer” might well adhere to static allocations, periodically rebalancing. Adding / deleting components would appear tantamount to going off the reservation. She suggests some precious metals (now that they’ve appreciated significantly). Consider that there have been periods as brief as 2 or 3 years over which precious metals funds have fallen 50% or more. How many novice investors (to whom she seems to be appealing) would have the staying power to hold on to to an asset like that near the bottom?
    - She’s fond of index funds. If one has a 10-25 year time horizon that’s probably great advice. Over longer periods lower fees should translate into better outcomes. But it’s not that simple. First, today’s investors generally have shorter time horizons / are prone to hold funds for shorter periods than a generation ago. Timing decisions might well impact returns more than fees. Secondly, the advice to invest in indexes ignores the extent to which some of those may have become distorted / overpriced after decades of outperformance. For example, the cap-weighted S&P 500 might not be the best place to invest today. Some knowledgeable investors actually maintain small short positions on it, wagering, in effect, that other market areas will outperform.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • Ecofin Sustainable Water Fund to be liquidated
    With EBLU drying up, can AQWA and IWTR be far behind?
    I have been treading water with FIW in the IRA due to when I purchased it. FIW and CGW are gurgling along in my wife's taxable, and slack in her IRA. Timing matters.PIO and PHO are two more main stems in the category that have been flowing fifteen years, or longer.
    We don't expect anything more than utility-like returns. From the start of the year Waterworks has been doing better than Electric Company. YMMV.
    WABAC WABAC in Fund Discussions
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Started a position in OMFL. No good reason other than it has beaten the S&P500 for total return over the last 5 years.
    Interesting...OMFL has beaten the S&P 500 in each 1 of those 5 calendar years.

    Year     OMFL S&P 500
    2018 -2.57% -4.52%
    2019 35.58% 31.33%
    2020 20.96% 18.25%
    2021 28.96% 28.53%
    2022 -13.97% -18.23%
    2023 (YTD) 8.78% 7.46%
    JD_co in Fund Discussions