Stagflation I do believe it will take a Recession to kill the malaise. Yes, labor market is tight. But for many years, gov't stats. have meant less and less to me, because they are played with, manipulated, re-defined, twisted, mutilated and jerked around. There's not much that's reliable about gov't statistics today. Stagflation? The economy's going to have to be fed through a meat grinder before we get rid of it. In the current world-picture, I wish I had a ton of spare cash to go buying companies that make rockets, anti-tank weapons and logistical stuff which is sure to be sent to the Ukraine military. (Where are the JETS, uncle Joe?????) Maybe it's a matter of time before some marketing genius establishes a mutual fund concentrated in military hardware and weapons.....
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Maybe good combine any dippers to these discussions
Added tna lcid qqqm xlf fngu today at opening bell
Cover all of them for one month prices ~ 15Delta
Betting small caps and market has bottom formations, if not 3 5 years hold lol
Seeking Alpha Membership Value Opinions If I read another headline about the latest "undiscovered safe" stock or fund with a yield of 10% I will throw up.
All you have to do is look at ATT. What good was the 6% dividend when the stock is down 20 to 30% in the last 3 to 5 years?
Yeah, there definitely is a herd mentality over there. I've complained loudly about their sensational breathless reporting of everything Saint Cathie of ARKK would do or say, and how their 'Why did ABC move up/down today?' headlines being nothing more than Motley-Fool clickbait-class nonsense, but who am I to be listened to.
Seeking Alpha Membership Value Opinions If I read another headline about the latest "undiscovered safe" stock or fund with a yield of 10% I will throw up.
All you have to do is look at ATT. What good was the 6% dividend when the stock is down 20 to 30% in the last 3 to 5 years?
Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ Sector and style focus explain the bulk of returns, generally speaking. The ARK complex were top performers in the past few
years before the downturn, and they were on top of all the "greats," like the Baron funds. When the "growthier" sector/style cratered they all did, though to a lesser extent compared to the ARK funds. I hold MGGPX (10yr 5 star MS, now 4 star MS). It correlates pretty closely with ARKW at least on a daily basis. My conclusion is that Ms. Wood was a better stock picker, by far, and not her fault that some bid those pics to the moon when her sector and style focus was in favor. But that which goes up 157% in a year can also drop 55%, predictable actually. You can decide which is the better fund.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=MGGPX&benchmark=ARKW
Any Dippers today @Old_Joe, These are long dated bonds and you are buying at a premium to par. I would make sure that you have call protection. Given these are issued in 1998, I am taking a wild guess that there might be a make whole provision; otherwise, the company would have called during pre-Max crash
years when interest rates were low and the company's credit rating was much higher.
Seeking Alpha Membership Value Opinions SA is offering 1 yr Premium membership for $15 per month. I find myself shut out of articles on the site I might want to read, and one of my fund managers posts his updates there to my chagrin. I am thinking of cutting loose an aggressive growth stock letter I have read for several years. The only other service I pay for is M* Premium. If MFO people subscribe to SA I would appreciate their opinions.
Doom and gloom - when will it end Hopefully we aren't going full-on "Carter malaise" for the next few years. But can we expect an immediate rebound if only some sectors have taken a beating? The disparity is quite large.
Value has been trumped by Growth for many years, and perhaps there is some payback here. High-dividend equity has been a good place to be so far YTD (as interest rates rise).
I would like to see the pain extend across the spectrum a bit more before calling Uncle. Even defensive sectors should get their due in a Bear market.
YEAR TO DATE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE
+37.3% Energy
-1.8 Basic Materials
-2.8 Utilities
-8.1 Consumer Defensive
-12.0 Healthcare
-12.2 Financial
-16.1 Industrials
-19.8 Real Estate
-28.1 Communication Services
-29.4 Tech
-33.7 Consumer Cyclical
Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ Aside from Cathie Wood in particular, you'll have to pardon my skepticism about AI potential in general. Not that work in the field doesn't lead to significant developments, but that it has a history of repeatedly overpromising and underdelivering. Perhaps she could learn from history, or is this time different?
From the initial boom cycle ("good old fashioned artificial intelligence") to the second boom cycle (expert systems, specialized applications), to the current boom cycle, the field has left a trail of
Broken Promises and Empty Threatshttps://www.technologystories.org/ai-evolution/
From a piece yesterday in MIT Technology Review:
Earlier this month, DeepMind [s subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL)] presented a new “generalist” AI model called Gato. ...
One of DeepMind’s top researchers and a coauthor of the Gato paper, Nando de Freitas, couldn’t contain his excitement. “The game is over!” he tweeted, suggesting that there is now a clear path from Gato to artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a vague concept of human- or superhuman-level AI. ...
Unsurprisingly, de Freitas’s announcement triggered breathless press coverage that DeepMind is “on the verge” of human-level artificial intelligence. This is not the first time hype has outstripped reality. ...
Some technologists, including some at DeepMind, think that one day humans will develop “broader” AI systems that will be able to function as well as or even better than humans. Though some call this artificial general intelligence, others say it is like "belief in magic.“ Many top researchers, such as Meta’s chief AI scientist Yann LeCun, question whether it is even possible at all.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/23/1052627/deepmind-gato-ai-model-hype/A quote that helps put this hype in historical (and hysterical) perspective:
In 1970 Marvin Minsky told Life Magazine, “from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.”
https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2017/history-artificial-intelligence/
Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund is Down … Money is Still Flowing. WSJ
PRFRX switch to TUHYX crash I just bought my first CD at Fidelity- new issue Goldman Sachs 3% yield maturity date of 5/2025. I'd rather get 3% for 3 years than deal with bond fund chaos. I'll have to ask Fidelity how to buy CD's priced on the secondary market since that requires limit orders !
Asset Allocation Funds I used to invest in BUFBX. It’s always been overweight energy, at least in recent history, as well as value stocks. Thus it hasn’t performed well in recent years until recently, as growth stocks have tumbled and energy boomed.
