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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    Americans are missing out on billions of dollars in interest by keeping their savings at the biggest U.S. banks.
    Following are edited excerpts from an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. While we here at MFO discuss the merits of CDs which pay 4.85%, huge numbers of fellow Americans are earning next to nothing on their bank deposits.

    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest level since early 2008. Yet the biggest commercial banks are still paying peanuts to savers. In theory, savers could have earned $42 billion more in interest in the third quarter if they moved their money out of the five largest U.S. banks by deposits to the five highest-yield savings accounts—none of which are offered by the big banks—according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
    The five banks—Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.—paid an average of 0.4% interest on consumer deposits in savings and money-market accounts during the quarter, according to S&P Global. The five highest-yielding savings accounts paid an average of 2.14% during the same period, according to data from Bankrate.com. These five banks collectively hold about half of all the money kept at U.S. commercial banks in savings and money-market accounts tracked by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. That share has held steady despite the availability of higher rates elsewhere.
    The $42 billion gap in the third quarter was the largest amount since record-keeping began, but will likely be dwarfed in the fourth quarter because top high-yield savings accounts have raised their interest rates to more than 3.5%.
    Since the start of 2019, Americans have lost out on at least $291 billion in interest by keeping their savings in the five biggest banks. That total balloons to $603 billion when going back to 2014, when the FDIC started tracking consumer deposits in money-market and other savings accounts.
    And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period.
    Why haven’t savers moved more of their money? Some customers aren’t aware of how much money they could make by switching, and others just don’t care. Alicia Gillum has been with Bank of America for 26 years and says she has no interest in searching for a new bank, even though her savings of more than $100,000 is earning almost no interest. Her loyalty has earned her Platinum Honors Tier status, which affords her a 0.04% interest rate on her savings instead of the 0.01% rate the bank pays to customers of its basic savings accounts.
    Americans flush with stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment checks flooded U.S. banks with deposits earlier in the pandemic. The biggest banks got an outsize share of those deposits. About $425 billion flowed into money-market and savings accounts at U.S. commercial banks between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2022, according to the FDIC. More than 95% of that went to the five largest banks.
    But things could be changing. The average rate on money-market and savings accounts at the five largest banks nearly tripled in the third quarter from where it was in the second. And people are starting to move their money around in other ways to take advantage of higher rates, pouring a record amount into higher-yielding savings vehicles such as Series I savings bonds and Treasury bills this year.
    Wow! "Platinum Honors Tier status" at BofA... Now that's really something!
  • Td acquired by schwab
    I moved 99% of my account out in October '20 after the deal closed, b/c I wanted my TDA FA to 'get credit' for my account as he'd been really good to me over the years. I also didn't want to deal with the drama/chaos of brokerage intergrations -- I've been through enough of them already.
    Since then, I've kept it active with a tiny stock position and $1000 cash just so I have access to prior statements and moreso, to keep my access to ThinkDesktop, which is fan-frakking-tastic compared to Schwab's dinky browser-based 'active' trader platform.
    When they tell me it's 'my turn' to be migrated, I'll transfer the rest over to Schwab and close the account, b/c I only need 1 Schwab account.
  • Vanguard Quits Net-Zero Alliance
    @sma3 "Texas at least, can claim their economic interests are at stake, although with the huge wind and solar arrays there, they will probably do pretty well with renewable energy. "
    Are you implying Texas has huge solar & wind projects at this time or they could develop them ? I've traveled to & through Houston on my way to coastal Bend area for six years & have as yet to see a wind turbine or solar farm.
    Perchance I'm not in the right area as TX is quite large
    I did note one car being charged via plug in.
  • CD Rate update
    My guess is that it is a pause. I think pauses are not unusual just before the Feds make a decision about interest rate hikes, but I fully anticipate the Feds to continue with interest rates, even though they are likely going to be smaller and less frequent. However, I am not anticipating longer term rates of 5 years, to be as high as shorter term rates of less than 2 years. I think there is too much optimisim that this rate hike period will only last another year, and at that time, I suspect shorter term rates will likely settle into a period where they are not rising so fast every few months.
  • TDA and Schwab
    Any word on when ThinkDesktop will be moved over?? Stunning this integration has taken over 2.5 years and it seems like they're not even halfway done yet. (And Schwab's 'active trader' is horrid compared to ThinkDesktop.)
    Glad I switched over myself back in 2020. I've been thru enough brokerage consolidations that I didn't need any more drama!
  • Kopernik Global All-Cap Fund re-opening to new investors
    Interesting.
    The fund absolutely cratered in its first two years, 2014 and 2015. Terrible absolute returns - down about 40% - and terrible relative ones. Great since then but reopening, I'm guessing, because it saw massive outflows in the last couple months despite okay returns, about 4% in the past three months which isn't great but wouldn't normally cause investor flight.
    I might ask them.
    David
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    @MikeM- Yes, I agree with you regarding a short-term CD, say a year or less. If called, no big deal. When I'm looking at Schwab, I filter for terms of 5 years and non-callable, just to narrow the list down a little. You still have to be careful that the price is 100, though.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    If called, you loss the months of interest that you could have earn at full maturity. Any duration above 2 years would expose you to being called early. Generally I avoid JP Morgan.
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    We had some discussed in another tread on small cap funds. Mainly it focused on actively a managed OEFs.
    Each recession is different. In 2008’s drawdown, all funds went down considerably. In 2000-2002 tech bubble, there were some funds that survived. Value funds in particular smaller caps outshined the growth counterparts by a sizable margins. Back then Fidelity low priced stock fund, FLPSX, a mid-cap value fund did well for two years, then it lost 6% in 2002. Considering other funds were down in excess of 50% in that 3 years period, FLPSX did well. Fast forward 20 year, FLPSX is quite different with larger names, large oversea exposure, large asset base, and managed by a team of managers. Joel Tillinghast is retiring in 2023.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLPSX/performance?p=FLPSX
    How will small caps perform next year? No one really know for sure and that ought to depend on how severe the recession will be.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    The 6.6% data was from the past; need to go back to the original time periods.
    With the inverted yield curve as of Nov 2022, the short end of T bills don’t appreciate much. So you are looking at the yields. 6-12 months is the sweet spot yielding 4.7% yesterday. CDs are a tad higher at 4.8% non-callable at Fidelity. Next year they may yield higher, but highly unlikely to yield 6.6%.
    I have to think twice before getting back to bond funds next years.
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    Source: Barrons
    "Small-caps outperformed during recessions in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve was fighting high inflation, as it is now. The group has higher proportional exposure than large-caps to inflation beneficiaries, like energy. It’s also more domestic and more tied to capital spending, which is a plus if U.S.-based manufacturers continue moving factories home. But small companies generally have less financial flexibility than large ones, which is a negative if borrowing rates stay elevated.
    One way for investors to add small- cap exposure is with a low-fee index fund like the iShares Russell 2000IWM –2.75% exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM). Then again, switching indexes might be an upgrade. The S&P SmallCap 600SP600EQ –2.60% index has outperformed the Russell 2000 index by more than a percentage point a year over the past five, 10, and 20 years, and has generally been less volatile. The biggest reason: S&P uses a profitability screen to admit index members. SPDR S&P 600 Small CapSLY –2.81% ETF (SLY) is one fund option there.
    If a profitability screen helps, how about a value tilt? The aforementioned indexes weight small-caps by market cap. Asset manager Research Affiliates has an index that weights them by fundamental measures of value like sales, cash flow, and dividends. Investors can buy in through Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF (FNDA). It’s more expensive than the other funds, but still cheap, with yearly expenses of 0.25%. Since inception in 2013, the fund has returned 7.4% a year, beating the Russell 2000 by nearly a point through Sept. 30."
    "For actively managed funds that are open to new money, Columbia Small Cap Value II (NSVAX) and Wasatch Core Growth (WGROX) get high marks from Morningstar. Each costs a little more than 1% a year and has beaten its category by about a point a year over the past decade."
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    I never said in any of my posts the managers were committing fraud. The appropriate term, "returns smoothing," would be as described in the Advisor Perspectives article:
    Stale pricing can create problems for investors. For example, funds are incented to engage in “return smoothing” by selective use of valuations
    There can be disagreement as to what the "fair value" of a private security is precisely because it does not trade and in many cases could be one of a kind. That's not fraud, but let's just say the pricing can tend to favor the managers of the funds when there is a debate between what they see as the intrinsic value of a private security is versus what the market says publicly traded securities with very similar credit qualities, businesses and risks are worth.
    It reminds me almost of how General Electric used to smooth earnings out so they hit their targets every quarter for many years. I don't think it was ever labeled fraud, but it was disingenuous as to what the company was actually producing earnings wise each quarter. I would trust an interval fund more that marked its portfolio down more during March of 2020 and simply issued a letter to shareholders stating: "We don't think any of our portfolio companies are impaired at this point but the market thinks there is a risk that there could be impairment in the future and so the market is marking down all high risk securities and we are marking ours down accordingly. The good news is because we are an interval fund we are not facing a run on the bank situation like an open-end fund would and if we're right and there is no impairment we should recover all of those losses."
  • Mystified by this
    No, he wasn't wrong that time. I'm just thinking that the Hosers up North might have said: "Fine, you want her? Arrest her. We are not your lackeys." And they could extradite her to the USA. Instead, she was hung-up for several years, between Canadian and U.S. courts and deals and decisions.
  • November 2022 updates?
    FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX) is pretty much atop the pile, at least if you value long-term performance. Over 20 years it matches the S&P 500 with comparable volatility and a noticeably small maximum drawdown. Also, nice people.
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    I'm personally invested in interval funds NICHX and CELFX for what I believe are good risk adjusted returns. Currently evaluating CEDIX.
    ** Not investment advice by any means, buyer beware **
    Fwiw, I was fixated on ER's for more than 20 years and hewed to strict limits of 1.25% with very few exceptions over those years. However I'm now more focussed on strategy, pedigree and what's going to end up in my pocket compared to the alternatives. Not stating that cost controls aren't important and also not stating that my current view is right for everybody but in general while I believe cost should be a factor it should not be a means to automatically eliminate. The cost should be viewed along with other factors -- strategy, risk, etc.. I love Vanguard products and focus on cost but Vanguard funds don't always result in the highest(or safest) net returns
    Niche investment strategies and steady returns will command a fee premium, it is what it is.
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    johnN has been a poster at MFO for many years. He seems attracted by offerings that promise above average returns, but upon closer examination also have well above average risks. Not for the faint of heart. Perhaps the gains and losses of these types of things average out over long periods of time- we have no way of knowing.
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    I have an old MSN email account newer (5 years) Hotmail account. Both can be accessed on Hotmail.com.
    Approximately 3 years ago, I started to receive these extortion emails at my MSN email (I never had a problem with my Hotmail account). I changed my password and notified the FBI. These extortion emails lasted about 1 month.
    While I rarely use my MSN email, I do receive a considerable amount of spam. The nature of the spam leads me to believe that it is a function of the extortion emails. I guess "they" figured if they could not get money from me, they would be a royal pain in the a**. This problem did not infect my PC with a virus or malware. I think that I had Windows Defender back then and a few years ago I added the free versions of Malwarebytes, Glary Utilities, and CCleaner.
  • BREIT vs SREIT - What Investors Should Know
    From the Hoya Capital blog:
    Blackstone Redemptions • Mixed Jobs Data • REIT M&A
    'Blog' reports are supposedly readable by anyone but just in case here's a snippet.
    "Real estate asset manager Blackstone (BX) was in focus today after its massive $70B nontraded REIT platform - BREIT - announced that it has begun limiting withdrawals after a wave of redemption requests that exceeded its monthly and quarterly limits. An issue that we predicted in our State of the REIT Nation Report last month, BREIT reported that its Net Asset Value has increased 9.3% this year through September 30 - claiming roughly 40% outperformance over the public REIT indexes despite paying "top-dollar" to acquire a half-dozen public REITs over the past two years whose closest public REIT peers are trading lower by an average of 30% this year. Naturally, investors have seized on the opportunity to redeem shares at these premium valuations. We've discussed the risks of non-traded REIT ("NTR") space across many reports over the past half-decade and continue to watch the area for signs of stress given their typically-high leverage and sensitivity to investor fund flows - which we expect could eventually become an area that's "ripe for picking" for the more conservatively-managed REITs."
  • How the Hospice Movement Became a For-Profit Hustle
    @LewisBraham
    I wasn't generalizing about health care unions, just reporting the fact that much of the opposition to the much needed merger of the two hospitals in a very small town ( big enough for only one, really) came from the nurse and hospital unions at the non Catholic hospital, as the prospective buyer did not plan on retaining union personnel.
    I know many examples of Unionized nurses standing up for patient safety and fighting for better staffing etc, but in this case the union did little to object in the past to years of mismanagement by the non profit administration, which is why a merger or sale was the only alternative to bankruptcy
    Equally at fault was the Catholic Bishop, who refused to allow the merger of the Catholic Hospital and the non-profit even after significant work arounds were developed to allow tubal ligations after caesarian sections to continue ( there were about 25 a year). This has been worked out in a variety of ways nationwide in other Catholic hospitals, but he canceled the deal because the sheets of the patients would have been intermingled with those of the "Faithful", as he put it.
    Consequently, both hospitals remained separate and desperate. Their bonds were selling for 50 cents on the dollar. One was driven into the arms of the hedge fund and the other taken over by a large Catholic hospital chain. Neither is doing well, as they continue to compete with each other for patients and reimbursements from commercial insurance companies who can play one off against the other on price alone.