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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Roth conversion
    I feel that longevity insurance is one of the few useful products that the financial industry has created in the past several years. That said, if it's not a product that you are interested in independent of tax considerations, then buying a QLAC is a poor way to reduce RMDs.
    Kitces, Why A QLAC In An IRA Is A Terrible Way To Defer The Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Obligation
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/why-a-qlac-in-an-ira-is-a-terrible-way-to-defer-the-required-minimum-distribution-rmd-obligation/
    Getting back to timing of conversions ... Though recharacterizations (undo's) of conversions are no longer allowed, there are a couple of other tactics that provide some or much of the same effect.
    One is to use a recharacterization that is still permitted. A contribution as opposed to a conversion can still be recharacterized. So if you contributed $6000 to a Roth IRA in 2021 but in doing your taxes you discover that you'd have been better off taking the deduction, you can recharacterize the $6K as a contribution to a traditional IRA. (You can also do the opposite: contribute to a T-IRA and then recharacterize it to a Roth.)
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-iras#Recharacterization of IRA Contributions
    Another it to take advantage of the 60 day rollover rule (sometimes limited to one per year). One could withdraw money from a T-IRA near the end of the year, and then early the next year when the tax situation is clearer (and within 60 days of the withdrawal) either put the money back into the T-IRA (60 day rollover), put the money into a Roth (indirect rollover conversion), or split the money between a T-IRA and a Roth.
    If any money goes back into a T-IRA, you can't do this again for another 365 calendar days. The restriction is according to days, not fiscal years.
  • Fighting Inflation Without Getting Carried Away
    I can't read Mark's article, need a subscription.
    @sma3, what do you mean by this comment:
    It is pretty sad when your bonds and bond funds loose money all year but the alternative for bear market protection- cash- is worse.
    Why is cash, that may have little to no appreciation, worst than bond funds that, well, many think will lose money going forward? One, cash, has loss of value per inflation and the other (bond funds) has loss of capital value + loss of value per inflation. Or am I missing something?
    Also I would say, yes, TIPS have lost money most of the time over past years, but inflation during those years has been nil. Of course they would not perform as well as a core bond or most any bond fund in that environment. But the inflation rate is changing, quickly. The time may be coming where they will out-perform core bond funds for years to come - ok, maybe.
  • Roth conversion
    @ Hank
    Does it matters what you convert, if you can always buy or sell anything in either account tax free?
    Once you have the capital in a Roth, I agree it should be probably devoted to more risky, long term investments.
    Converting before you are on Medicare and after are two different calculations.
    It is important to remember that the IRMAA surcharges go from zero dollars ( B Medicare Premium $1776 /year in 2021) to $700 for ONE DOLLAR of income ( AGI before the standard deduction) above $176,000 for a couple and $111,000 single. A couple would therefore pay $1400 extra.
    IRMAA is based on two years before 1040, so 2022 will look at 2020 AGI. Once you file 2021 taxes in 2022 you can ask for redo, if your 2021 income is lower. It takes a month or so, so you will end up paying more for a few months.
    One strategy I am considering is to do a large conversion, all in one year, before I take SS at 70. Then the impact of the conversion on the IRMAA will be limited to one year.
    Other things to consider. IRS lets you put up to $135,000 in a QLAC which will reduce you RMD proportionally.
    Lawrence Kotlikoff from BU has a great article in Barrons
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-retirement-planning-is-wrong-laurence-kotlikoff-51631207476
    He also runs a web site with a neat financial planning program for $100, Maxifi. It may be overkill for a lot of folks, but it will allow you to run all sorts of projections and scenarios about Roth conversions pretty easily
  • December Commentary is posted …
    @David - I am truly sorry to hear of your loss having lived through the same just a few short years ago. It's heartbreaking and I can only echo your sentiments regarding expressions of love and caring whenever you can, and as often as you can while you can. Peace.
  • Just for the Dippers !
    Thanks for the note from my Barron's summary this AM. People know where to find it.
    "COMMODITIES. The auto market (new or used cars) is very tight. But PALLADIUM (-26% YTD) and PLATINUM (-14% YTD) are down sharply because of the drop in auto production caused by SEMI CHIPS shortages. This is unusual as most commodities are strong (S&P GSCI commodity index +28% YTD). Palladium is used more widely in the catalytic converters of gasoline-powered cars while platinum is used more in diesel-powered cars; although either metal can be used, there are large capex costs for the switch for the manufacturers. Rebound in palladium may be dramatic when the auto production picks up as chips supply-chain issues ease. On the other hand, platinum demand has fallen sharply for investments and also for other industrial application, so there is now a platinum surplus. Platinum is also much cheaper than gold (it used to be the reverse years ago)."
  • Roth conversion
    The question can be split into two parts:
    1. Best time during a given year
    2. Best year
    1. In theory, the best time within a year to convert is when your T-IRA portfolio is at its nadir. Which is great if you can see into the future.
    Pragmatically, waiting until there's a market correction (10% dip or more) can leave you converting at a higher value than converting now. If the market rises 15% while you're waiting and then drops 10% (to 103.5% of your starting value), what's the point? Or if you're planning on converting a bit each year, you can easily wind up stuck at the end of the year with a higher market still waiting for that correction.
    If you're trying to keep MAGI under a certain "cliff" threshold (e.g. for ACA subsidies or to avoid IRMAA) then you should likely be conservative and top off your conversion near year end once you have a better handle on MAGI YTD. If your concern is about edging into another tax bracket, it's not a big deal if you wind up a few dollars over or under, so don't wait until year end for that reason.
    2. If you're converting and paying taxes with non-IRA money, sooner can be better than later even if your expected tax rates in the future will be a little higher. That's because you're effectively adding money to your IRA by prepaying your taxes. (A dollar in a Roth is worth more than a dollar in a T-IRA.)
    OTOH, many states give tax breaks for retirement income (including Roth conversions) once one reaches a certain age. So it can be advantageous to wait until then. You might convert between the time you reach that age and the time you retire and actually start drawing money from your T-IRA and/or pension (and possibly using up that tax break).
    Several states give some sort of help on Medicare Part D prescriptions, where your income needs to be low enough to qualify. Doing Roth conversions earlier (even at somewhat higher tax rates) may help qualify for these or other income-related programs.
    The largest such program is EPIC in NYS. Its income cutoff is decidedly middle class: $75K single, $100K married.
    The rule of thumb short answer is the sooner the better (both within year and across years); just don't do too much in a single year and keep various income thresholds in mind. And if you're thinking of making charitable contributions, keep some money in the T-IRA so you have it available for QCDs.
  • Roth conversion
    Gentlemen, I really appreciate for your inputs. Last spring was a great opportunity to do a large conversion. Unfortunately many of us did not plan for it. Now we are evaluating which how much and which funds to convert per year. Great reminder that the tax table is for the adjusted gross income.
    To reduce tax in retirement, we did few small changes. We switched our 401(K) to Roth 401(K) several years ago. Still we have rollover and traditional IRAs to consider for higher future tax and RMD. Higher retirement income incurs additional cost on Medicare premium and taxation on most of the social security benefit.
  • Berkshire’s Munger Says Now ‘Even Crazier’ Than Dotcom Bust
    Given his cryptocurrency remarks, I'm reminded of the Simpsons meme of "Old Man Yells At Cloud"...... how many US Dollars have been used for illicit purposes over the years? Just because something is new and/or misused (or not understood) by some doesn't mean it's necessarily a bad thing.
    Listening to Munger's pomposity bubbling just under the surface in his remarks in recent years, I'm reminded of the Wall Street saying that "past performance not indicative of future results."
    BTW, anyone ask how his BABA stake is doing these days?
    PS: I do agree w/Munger that the markets are 'crazy' and imo have been that way since the GFC.
  • Berkshire’s Munger Says Now ‘Even Crazier’ Than Dotcom Bust
    There is already a transition place in place for a number of years including Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, and Todd Combs. I believe Abel is the one responsible for investing in Apple and dumped IBM (a long holding for many years). Now Apple accounts for over 40% of BRKA portfolio.
    https://barrons.com/articles/who-succeed-berkshire-hathaway-ceo-warren-buffett-51577375291
  • Berkshire’s Munger Says Now ‘Even Crazier’ Than Dotcom Bust
    It is incredible that Munger is 97 years old and he is very sharp. BRKB has not made big purchases lately other than buyback of their own stock.
  • Rubbing Some VIX over the S&P 500 Index
    Frankly, and based solely on the first chart itself (which I also expanded to cover almost four years), I'm not really seeing ANY usable relationship between the two things. What little (inverse) relationship MAY exist seems to come too late to be of any use. I've seen this "VIX predicts the market" idea before, but I don't see anything here to bolster that argument. What am I missing?
  • Anybody holding DUST?
    Came across this one today. It’s being suggested by some pundits as a hedge against your gold mining stocks falling further.
    The description from Lipper:
    “The Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the inverse (or opposite) of the price performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The Fund creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in: futures contracts; options on securities, indices and futures.”
    DUST is off -71% over the past 3 years. Think I’d rather fry along with some mining stocks than try to catch this one. Gold’s been in a see-saw all year, bouncing between $1700 and around $1850. It appears to be on its way down again after topping-out only a few weeks ago.Just below $1800 at present. But this kind of erratic behavior is pretty typical. Limit your exposure. Don’t chase on the way up or down.
  • December Commentary is posted …
    My best friend of over 50 years I met as a roommate my first year at CMU in ‘65. Both in our late 70s now, we sometimes contemplate the unthinkable. “With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.”
  • December Commentary is posted …
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2021/12/
    “I learned this morning that my best friend of nearly 50 years, Nicholas Burnett, professor emeritus at Sacramento State, was being removed from life support.”
    Sorry to hear of your loss David.
  • Rubbing Some VIX over the S&P 500 Index
    The VIX (Volatility Index) is closing in on 30 this AM. We touched above this level one year ago (Nov. 30, 2020) when we briefly reach the 33 level.
    Here's a chart of the VIX showing it's movement over the last 5 years along with the S&P 500.
    image
  • This New ETF (SARK) is Betting Against Cathie Wood and ARK
    Speaking of DKNG - I track it and it’s off 6.75% for the day at $32 plus change. Reports are Cathie bought a truck load at $43-$44 a few weeks ago - Whew! Here’s a stock that’s seen close to $75 within the past year. I think it was launched couple years ago as part of a a “SPACK”. Getting spanked today for whatever reason. No idea what the trouble is. But harmed by the market saturation with too many competing plus the steep taxes states are hitting them with.
    Additional Thoughts - The stock has been subject to short selling pressure during past year. And now, with SARK opening, that pressure is probably even greater. Nuts. If Cathie buys a stock, it’s got a target on its back. :) Top institutional holders Vanguard and T. Rowe Price. I’d think safer to own it through a small cap fund.
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    I have managed to restore several of my accounts by
    1) ensuring that "Schwab" is listed as the brokerage name, not "zz-Schwab" or zzz-Schwab" on the account details window ( this is in the recommendations)
    But this still would not allow me to "Activate" the accounts with the "Schwab brokerage" link, but there is another Schwab.com listed in the "add account" drop down menu
    "Schwab Investor-C"
    This seems to work for several of the accounts but not all
    I am very discouraged by this disaster. As you mention, this is the worst snafu from Quicken in the 25 years I have been using it
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    If I may digest from the original post on EM small caps for a moment. There are still few EM opportunities still available in larger caps. I use NWFFX for a number of years as a lower risk EM fund. The broader mandate allow companies that derive majority of their revenue from EM including Microsoft.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/975441/go-active-in-emerging-markets
  • Half of this year’s blockbuster IPOs are underwater, despite broad stock rally
    Article appears in today’s (November 29) Financial Times.
    Link is for an alternate source which may be more accessible.
    Title is taken from the FT.
    Bylines: Hudson Lockett & Tabby Kinder
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    I'm inclined to agree with @Baseball_Fan that multi-strategy funds are generally a bunch of spaghetti.
    Even if one does understand how each alternative strategy tends to work in isolation and even if one does understand how they interact, IMHO two wildly optimistic assumptions, one still does not have any sense of how they are being allocated/used. A fund saying that it "seeks to provide total return ... in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress" tells me almost nothing about how it uses those alternative strategies.
    More studying of a fund may not make it any clearer. M* gave DBLTX a "not rated" mark for two years (2014-2016) because "when ... evaluating sophisticated bond strategies like DoubleLine Total Return Bond, publicly available information often does not suffice."
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/759331/why-were-moving-doubleline-total-return-bond-funds-rating-to-neutral
    Yet for most of us peons, public info is all we have to work with. And it's hard to deny that funds like BAMBX are employing sophisticated strategies, bond and other. FWIW, M* decided to change the rating of DBLTX from "not rated" to "neutral" because M* felt it was more informative to say that based on what they knew they could not recommend the fund ("neutral") than to say nothing.
    With respect to the BAMBX's portfolio, Lipper is showing net allocations. According to M*, the fund is comprised of 65% short positions and 165% long, which adds up to 100% of the portfolio, net. A lot of shorting going on.
    At a superficial level (i.e. just looking at the 165/65 figure), this looks like the 130/30 funds of a decade ago on steroids. Except that for BAMBX that's just a summary of its holdings and not its strategy. Here's a M* piece on the 130/30 funds of yesteryear, and the risks they carried.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/287718/article
    TMSRX is net 48% long in fixed income and net 6% short in equity, both of which should have helped its performance Friday, yet it dropped ½%. It's not so easy to figure out what these sorts of funds are doing. Even less so for BAMFX with a 500% turnover rate.