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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • decided to sell AMANX (amana income)
    I think that's wise. But beware. Do not let him "sell you a bill of goods." If you simply say, "OK" to everything he tells you, you KNOW what will happen: you'll be invested in funds that give HIM the best kickbacks. You should always go with NO-LOAD funds. Also, check with your Adviser about "TRANSACTION FEES," too. (The FUND may be a no-load, but Schwab may charge you a fee to do X or Y or Z.) Just watch out and don't let them "milk" you for lots of fees and fine-print bullshit........ ALSO, "before you pull the trigger:" you might want to check with one or two other Financial Advisers out there. Maybe a local guy? Maybe you'll get a better deal and feel more comfortable with a local person, as opposed to the "Big Dogs" we see advertized on tv every day? Just a thought.
  • Americans need financial education
    From Yahoo. I hope the link works.
    Americans need financial education, report says
  • decided to sell AMANX (amana income)
    bnath, if the market dropped 10% and you were only 10% in equities, how much would your total portfolio have dropped? Obviously you know the answer is 1%. Are you saying you can't handle a 1% correction when you have a 20+ year time horizon? And now that you are out of equities, when will you get back in? What's the plan Stan?
    If a 1 or 2 % correction in your savings is too much to handle you probably should just be in CDs. And that is perfectly fine if that alleviates stress about your money. But you really have to look at the whole portfolio for potential loss, not just the equity exposure. That may be the greatest benefit you will get from a financial advisor.
  • Market Commentaries
    Bee,Thanks for this link.Some I am familiar with, others would take more research by me for rather generic and group-think info. It is an excellent financial resource aggregator for this board.We should all bookmark it for at least a once a week glance.
    Of the links I read,I would urge many to review the one by T C W's Tad Rivelle http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/tcw_110813.php
    He touches on free market credit theory,the unintended consequences of the government policy of the last 5 years, the continued under-performance of the economy and the much discussed widening of society's wealth-gap.
    Thanks again Bee.To all ,a wonderful Holiday Week.
  • Damned Lies
    Hi Guys,
    I just don’t like statistics, I love statistics. As a youngster, I self-taught myself the arithmetical long-division process; I was motivated by a desire to calculate baseball players batting averages. Statistics are ubiquitous, especially in the financial world. As George Bernard Shaw observed “It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics.”
    Statistics serve useful purposes, especially when they are fully understood and their limitations are recognized. But statistics can be managed, can be both manipulated and abused. Near the end on my post, I’ll provide a couple of excellent commonsense references that explore statistics’ darkside in an entertaining and almost non-mathematical format.
    Many splendid quotes succinctly document the dangers of mangled or misguided statistics. Besides his most famous “Lies, damn lies, and statistics” saying, Mark Twain also astutely remarked that “Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable”. Scientist Ernest Rutherford noted that “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment”. On a higher level, Henry Clay concluded perfectly that “ Statistics are no substitute for judgment”. Hundreds of such quotes are easily accessible.
    Without formally using statistical data sets and probability-based analysis, we make everyday decisions that are grounded in perceived statistical influences and odds considerations. I say perceived for it is sometimes the case that we think we know what isn’t actually so.
    Which is more dangerous, having a gun in your home or having a swimming pool in your backyard? The likelihood of a child being drowned in a swimming pool each year is about three times higher than a child being shot to death by a gun. This statistical fact will surprise some folks. Why? Most of the population thinks in terms of vivid images enhanced by frequent media coverage, and are often lead astray. This phenomenon exists in spades in the investment community.
    I have been a long-term MFO campaigner for better statistical understanding and application for citizen investors. Institutional investment agencies completely exploit the powerful tools of statistics and probability theory. To somewhat level the playing field, individual investors must do the same. Most do. However, a few MFO members criticize my efforts, believing that I go “a bridge too far”. I accept that critique as a badge of persistence and am not dissuaded from my goal. Regardless, here I go again.
    Decades ago, while I was in college, my math professor exposed his classes to a simple statistics book that focused on the misuse and abuse of statistics. The book was written in the early 1950s by Darrell Huff; it is titled “How to Lie with Statistics”. It is considered a classic and a fun exposé of the discipline by many educators. I’m sure Professor Snowball is familiar with the work since it integrates well into his propaganda classes.
    Recently, I have discovered a more modern version of flawed statistics as applied to social issues. It too is a wonderful and easy introduction to the statistical world. It emphasizes descriptive statistical methods and does not address inferential techniques such as correlation approaches. Given that shortcoming, it is still a nice doorway into the statistical house. The book’s author is Joel Best; the title is “Damned Lies and Statistics”. Several revised editions of this work have been released. The included stories are both fun and informative.
    The good news is that both these fine volumes are now available on the Internet, and they are cost free. Here are Links to the two books I highlighted with the Best book listed first:
    http://portal.tpu.ru/SHARED/k/KITAEVA/statistics/book/Tab3/damnedstatistics.pdf
    http://www.horace.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/How-to-Lie-With-Statistics-1954-Huff.pdf
    Please take advantage of these skillful presentations of statistical methods and how they can be exploited in a negative manner. Please read these short books and you’ll more fully comprehend the merits, the shortfalls, and the pitfalls of statistical analyses. As more statistical tools are added to your investment toolbox, a better informed investor will emerge.
    As always, the buyer must beware of fraudulent data and incompetent applications. Enjoy and learn.
    Let the MFO membership know what you think about these references. Thank you.
    Best Regards.
  • Vulcan Value Partners Small Cap Fund to close to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000091580213000066/vulcansoftclosesticker112113.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Vulcan Value Partners Small Cap Fund (the “Fund”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED NOVEMBER 21, 2013 TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED AUGUST 31, 2013
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus for the Fund dated August 31, 2013. You should retain this Supplement and the Prospectus for future reference. Additional copies of the Prospectus may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at www.vulcanvaluepartners.com or calling us at 1.877.421.5078.
    Effective as of the close of business on November 29, 2013, the Fund will close to new investors, except as described below. This change will affect new investors seeking to purchase shares of the Fund either directly or through third party intermediaries. Existing shareholders of the Fund may continue to purchase additional shares of the Fund.
    · A financial advisor whose clients have established accounts in the Fund as of November 29, 2013 may continue to open new accounts in the Fund for any of its existing or new clients.
    · Existing or new participants in a qualified retirement plan, such as a 401(k) plan, profit sharing plan, 403(b) plan or 457 plan, which has an existing position in the Fund as of November 29, 2013, may continue to open new accounts in the Fund. In addition, if such qualified retirement plans have a related retirement plan formed in the future, this plan may also open new accounts in the Fund.
    The Fund retains the right to make exceptions to any action taken to close the Fund or limit inflows into the Fund.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • T. Rowe Price Global Infrastructure Fund reorganization
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000031321213000203/gnfstatutorysticker112-20132.htm
    497 1 gnfstatutorysticker112-20132.htm
    T. Rowe Price Global Infrastructure Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated March 1, 2013
    On November 11, 2013, the Board of Directors of the T. Rowe Price Global Infrastructure Fund (the “Fund”) approved a proposed merger under which the assets of the Fund would be transferred to the T. Rowe Price Real Assets Fund in exchange for shares of that fund.
    The merger is subject to the approval of a majority of the Fund’s shareholders. All Fund shareholders at the close of business on January 30, 2014, the “record date,” will be eligible to vote on a plan of reorganization in connection with the proposed merger. It is anticipated that proxy materials and voting instructions will be mailed to shareholders of record in early February, and a special shareholder meeting will be held on or around April 30, 2014. The rationale for the proposal and detailed information regarding the proposed merger and the T. Rowe Price Real Assets Fund will be provided in the proxy materials. If the proposal is approved by a majority of the Fund’s shareholders, the merger is expected to take place on or around May 23, 2014, at which point Fund shareholders will receive shares of the T. Rowe Price Real Assets Fund representing the same total value as their shares of the Fund on that date. The merger will be structured as a tax-free exchange for shareholders of the Fund, although it is expected that the Fund will declare a taxable distribution to its shareholders shortly before the merger is consummated.
    Effective immediately, the Fund will no longer charge a 2.00% redemption fee on shares purchased and held for 90 days or less. Accordingly, on page 1, the 2.00% redemption fee referenced in the table entitled “Fees and Expenses of the Fund” is hereby deleted, and on page 21, the 2.00% redemption fee referenced in the table entitled “T. Rowe Price Funds With Redemption Fees” is hereby deleted with respect to the Global Infrastructure Fund.
    In addition, effective immediately, Kes Visuvalingam has replaced Susanta Mazumdar as the Fund’s portfolio manager. On page 5, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is revised as follows:
    Portfolio Manager
    Kes Visuvalingam
    Title
    Chairman of Investment
    Advisory committee
    Managed Fund Since
    2013
    Joined Investment Adviser
    2007
    Effective December 16, 2013, the Fund will no longer accept new accounts and will close to additional purchases. On page 5, the language under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is replaced with the following:
    The fund will be closed to new accounts and will not accept purchases of additional shares from existing shareholders after the close of the New York Stock Exchange (normally 4 p.m. ET) on Monday, December 16, 2013. Closing the fund to new accounts and additional purchases does not restrict shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. You may redeem or
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    exchange shares of the fund on any day the New York Stock Exchange is open for business by accessing your account online at troweprice.com, by calling 1-800-225-5132, or by written request. If you hold shares through a financial intermediary, you must redeem and exchange shares through your intermediary.
    On page 36, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” with respect to the Global Infrastructure Fund is supplemented with the following:
    Effective November 20, 2013, Kes Visuvalingam replaced Susanta Mazumdar as Chairman of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Visuvalingam joined the Firm in 2007 and his investment experience dates from 1990. Since joining the Firm, he has served as the Director of Equity Research, Asia. Prior to joining the Firm, he managed portfolios and oversaw equity research for Prudential Asset Management and First State Investments, among others.
    The date of this supplement is November 20, 2013.
  • 401K question
    My quick response is that you should not do anything. On the other hand, the 4-week blackout period is the longest I have ever seen. Usually it is 1-2 weeks tops. If your existing holdings are good quality and your history is not one of moving in and out of the markets, why change that now? Unless you have a very strong conviction that there is about to be some kind of black swan event, I would hold on and try to avoid watching the financial news.
  • The Bears Are Deep In Their Caves
    Reply to @AndyJ:
    From FRED:
    "The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
    The frequency of currency exchange can be used to determine the velocity of a given component of the money supply, providing some insight into whether consumers and businesses are saving or spending their money. There are several components of the money supply,: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest. Consider M1, the narrowest component. M1 is the money supply of currency in circulation (notes and coins, traveler’s checks [non-bank issuers], demand deposits, and checkable deposits). A decreasing velocity of M1 might indicate fewer short- term consumption transactions are taking place. We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis.
    The broader M2 component includes M1 in addition to saving deposits, certificates of deposit (less than $100,000), and money market deposits for individuals. Comparing the velocities of M1 and M2 provides some insight into how quickly the economy is spending and how quickly it is saving.
    MZM (money with zero maturity) is the broadest component and consists of the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand: notes and coins in circulation, traveler’s checks (non-bank issuers), demand deposits, other checkable deposits, savings deposits, and all money market funds. The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy."
    research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V?cid=32242
    image
  • 6% returns
    Hello, again!
    I just now stopped by, again. I'm paying attention, for sure. And as I said above, though I'm impressed with him--- the ML guy--- I will NOT become a client. I don't meet their asset threshold, and further, I would not want to give up the chance to choose funds on my own. That special arrangement, in which his intern would handle everything, is fine for folks who are not interested in doing their homework and WANT to "abdicate" from making financial decisions--- leaving it in the hands of their financial adviser. But I personally need to have more control. I can't just turn all my stuff over to someone else and leave it at that. :)
  • Edward Jones
    Please read this thread: Ouch...biting commentary on Edward Jones
    The series of painful articles by Sylvia Kronstadt generated some mixed reactions on the board. But on the whole, I think the community was negative on Edward Jones.
    Here is full article: Edward Jones Saga
    Looks like since our thread, FINRA opened and closed an investigation into Edward Jones based on the info in the article. Apparently, no judgement was handed down, either way.
    Here is a FINRA BrokerageCheck Report, dated 11 March 2012.
    Here is another article by Motley Fool: Can Your Edward Jones Financial Advisor Really Serve Your Best Interests?
    In my (biased and uninformed about your personal situation) opinion, if you are posting on this board, you do not need Edward Jones.
  • Opinions...when could the tapering stop
    The financial media has been confusing people by making it sound like the decision when to start tapering is a binary decision and that once the Fed starts they will have to continue tapering until QE goes to zero. With Yellen as the new Fed chairman that is not the case.
    The tapering hasn't started yet, but even after it starts it can stop or even reverse. This guy from the FED says that if the economy weakens, QE may be increased and even exceed $85 billion a month.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/williams-says-fed-could-increase-pace-of-qe-again-after-tapering.html
    The initial taper decision is just one data point and really means very little.
  • Active Stock Pickers Can Now Beat The Market
    Uhhh ... "Matt Lynn is a British thriller writer and a financial journalist. As Matt Lynn, he is the author of the 'Death Force' series of novels."
    Which might explain his challenged logic: "As the trackers and ETFs take over, it will be possible to beat the market, and probably fairly easy. Why? Because the index funds will be buying blindly, ignoring the obvious winners and losers, and anyone who uses just a modicum of common sense should find that creates lots of opportunities."
    "...and probably fairly easy"?
    Mr. Lynn assumes that "trackers and ETFs" can be equated with "broad, cap-weighted market index funds." His assumption is incorrect for at least two reasons. First, most ETFs target smaller niches and increasingly the trend is toward non-cap-weighted indexes. Second, most ETFs are trading products used by professional investors to execute - long, leveraged and short - specific active bets. That's why Morningstar's ETF awards are divided into two classes: trading and investing.
    David
  • The Latest Measures Of A Bid-Up Stock Market
    Point in hand ... traders and speculators follow momentum, usually in short term positions, and folks momentum can run, upward or downward. From my thinking this is currently a richly priced market for the long term investor to be putting new money to work. While I am not currently selling, I have not been buying much either. And, I am currently in a cash accumulation mode as all my portfolio's assets are all paying out a cash distribution.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Olde Skeet
    Formerly known as "Skeeter" on the MFO board. Seems I had the same handle as someone else that tweeted on the financial markets. And, folks that was not me. So I changed my handle.
  • Opinions...when could the tapering stop
    Reply to @Old_Joe: After QE1 started, I said they weren't going to stop. Three or four QE's (What are we on now anyways? Is it QE Vista, QE 7 or QE 8 with no smart menu and useless apps?) later...
    Never? Maybe not, but I think it is long enough away that people should not focus on it as much as they are on financial media and otherwise. As for a CD at the bank, you will get 4-5% again when the world looks like "The Jetsons", or at least the "Family Guy" version.

  • Opinions...when could the tapering stop
    In other words, no one knows nuttin'! And we wanna see our lawyer!
    That's the "standard" response, for ordinary folks. For politicians or financial types, it's either "I was not aware of that" or "I cannot recall at this time", or maybe even:
    "I cannot recall at this time if I was in fact aware of that at that time, but it also depends on the meaning of "aware". It's possible that I may in fact have been aware in some context of that word, but did not realize that I was aware, if in fact I was."
  • Don't know where to invest and sitting in cash for a long time....
    Hello bnath. Good to hear from you. I recall connecting with you a few times at the old FA. No luck digging any of that up. My (possibly incorrect) recollection is that you raised some very good questions than about the value of balanced funds as opposed to other types of funds and received a number of great responses from many board members. I do note that you were active at MFO in June 2011 at which time you considered buying a deferred annuity. Your recent post raises some interesting questions beyond your "how to invest now" query. These are mostly rhetorical (to stimulate thought) but if time you are welcome to address any or all.
    (1) There have been a number of creative ways some have deployed cash during this dismal interest rate environment. So, I'd be most interested in knowing how your 100% cash position was invested. Was it all, for example, in insured bank deposits and money market funds? If that's the case, than you've lagged inflation considerably over the past 5 years (not good). On the other hand, David and others have used RPHYX quite effectively as a cash substitute. I myself have some, but not all, invested in short and intermediate term bond funds. And, lastly, Catch22 for many years wrote an excellent column (The Fund Boat) at both Fund Alarm and than later here in which he aptly documented the phenominal bull market many types of fixed income investments enjoyed over the lengthy time you apparently sat in cash. I'm curious as to whether or not you followed the lead of Catch and other like-minded cautious investors by deploying at least some of your money into a diversified mix of bonds, bond funds, or other similar assets? If not, I'd certainly like to hear why not and what your reasoning was at the time? These products have likely lagged equities over the more recent past, but the conservative use of bonds and related products over the 2008 - 2013 time period (which Catch and many others employed and wrote about) was certainly preferable to leaving everything sitting in cash at near 0%.
    (2) Your related question about how much you will need for retirement is crucial, but also a bit telling. I suspect you may not yet have developed the habit of constructing, following, and monitoring a yearly household budget. That's a separate area which I won't go into, except to say that from experience when my wife and I finally figured out how to do that, it made all our financial decisions much easier. It's a simple thing, and yet it made a profound difference in our lives. When it came time to contemplate retirement we already had several years of budget experience behind us. This was invaluable in doing the calculations to adjust for the different financial experiences retirement brings. In addition, we had confidence from past experience that we'd be able to continue to follow a budget (with some refinements) after we retired. Everything else came easier too. After an initial two or three "lean" years, we found we had more money for important things like leisure, travel, and charitable and gift giving - yet, curiously, were at the same time able to save more. Perhaps I've mis-read your post, but I think not, and so I encourage you to research and give some thought to the budget issue. An added thought: many sources, including T. Rowe Price, make retirement calculators available on the web. Once you have a handle on the "needs & budget" considerations, those resources will be of value in determining required initial assets, draw-down rates, life expectancy, and related mathematical calculations.
    (3) Unfortunately, your post raises an age-old paradox. We as humans tend to run away from equities when they are cheap, yet desire to buy when they're much more costly. Would we pass-up a new coat at $50 and than buy the same one a few years later for $100 or $150? Probably not. Yet, on March 9, 2009 here's where the three major U.S. stock indexes stood. The Dow Jones closed at 6,547. The S&P 500 stood at 677. And the NASDAQ was at 1269. Please compare these numbers to today's. You'll likely see what I'm getting at. I don't know whether the market is cheap today or not. There's a number of interesting threads now trying to answer that. However, I do know that I'd much rather buy the same new coat for $50 than for $125 or $150. FWIW - Thanks for the provocative question. Regards
  • Bullish Sentiment Increases
    Retail casts away doubts on equities • 8:51 AM From Seeking Alpha
    "I don't want to miss out." a Los Angeles real estate appraiser said in a note to his financial adviser last week after seeing one pundit up his DJIA forecast to 20K.
    "Frankly, from 2009 until recently, I wanted to stay very conservative," says a technology sales manager. "I want to get more aggressive."
    A Houston attorney and stock market skeptic was turned by her Schwab statement showing YTD gains of nearly 20%. She's planning on set aside more of her paycheck for stocks. "Sometimes you feel like it's too late. But it's probably never too late."
    Inflows of $8.9B into long-only equity funds last week were the largest amount since March 2000. This follows October inflows into stock funds that were the 3rd largest on record.
  • FAIRX
    Reply to @clemg64: I like go anywhere funds too. Since you are a long-term investor, as David would say, it does not matter when you jump in.
    Hmm, if it were my portfolio given the choices above plus FAIRX?
    Probably something like:
    FPACX 40%
    FAIRX 30%
    MACSX 20%
    OAKWX 10%
    But I trust you know by now that I can barely spell financial advisor...er, adviser.
    =)
  • Jesse Livermore’s Investing Wisdom
    Reply to @Junkster:
    Hi Junkster,
    Thank you for the unexpected and motivational references. I was unfamiliar with either reference. I think I’ll pass on the additional Livermore biography; I’ve had enough of the Boy Plunger. But I am intrigued by your praise for the Nicholas Darvis citation. I inadvertently downloaded a copy of his book for free. I will read it.
    Voltaire famously remarked that “Common sense isn’t so common”. That’s as pithy as it gets. I agree that there are likely 50 more investment gems in Lefevre’s classic book that are not included in my summary list. It is really a treasure chest of investing advice.
    Applied common sense will make all of us more successful investors. One problem is that under the marketplace’s frequent stressful conditions, we tend to abandon those common sense guiding principles. Even Jesse Livermore fell victim to that psychological trap. He admitted as much in the biographies.
    At one time, I too believed that Livermore died a poor man. That is simply not true. Various credible web resources place his end total wealth in the 5 million dollar range. Certainly he was not financially destitute. He committed suicide for other non-financial reasons.
    Thank you for expanding this discussion. All MFO members will benefit from your fine contributions.
    Best Wishes.