https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-will-the-bear-market-bottom-history-offers-a-very-clear-clue
You probably don't need me to tell you this, but 2022 has been one of the most challenging years on record for everyone from Wall Street professionals to everyday investors. The first half of the year saw the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which is the broadest barometer of stock-market health, produce its worst return in 52 years. The growth-dependent Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) fared even worse, with the index losing as much as a third of its value on a peak-to-trough basis.
Very thoughtful insights/discussion
Nobody really know for sure
Could be lots pain 3 5 monrhs

@Baseball_Fan
I may be suckling of the teet (sic) of the public tax payer with a pension, but hear this, joker: During my twenty years of public safety service I typically worked two to four hours of off-the-books UNPAID overtime each and every day. I appreciated my job, and felt it was no problem to give a little extra. The taxpayers got their money's worth and then some from me. Up yours, pal.

@Hank, so this is an extreme example of the absolute kookiness that has taken place over the past few years with the fed's balance sheet expanding by 10x over the past dozen or so years. Social media, media assisted in driving the sheeple to lose their money in this Schmuddel. I can see this fund getting cut in half once again from here. Who knows?
So ryhmed with the late 90's, no? Next generation of investors/sheeple done learnt their lesson, maybe?
So...question for the class...let's talke about GAAP accounting or maybe better said the lack of it pertaining to most/many tech companies.
Do they or do they not pay many of their assocatiates with stock...what about intangibles...is that on the balance sheet? What happens to their "earnings" if you put those "true" expenses back on there? Aren't some of those companies another farce similar to ARKK...Can some CPA/Finance expert explain Salesforce, CRM, the rollup of over 60 companies to me and what is really going on there. I have no idea but am wondering, asking for a friend? Compare it to MSFT who DOES report using GAAP, I beleive.
And now those of us who don't suckle of the teet of the public tax payer with a pension have to fund our retirement in this piece of sheet casino?
Baseball Fan

Global Bond Bear
The drawdown for the global bond index was recently at -20.4% for the first time in its history (1990- ). Based on the interest rate history over 5,000 years, this may be the first time ever for the global bond market. The US bond index (1976- ) had a record drawdown of -14.3% in mid-June, recent (only) -12.7%. Twitter LINK
None of this would make you feel better. But if you hold bonds in any form, including within allocation/balanced funds, you know that it has been painful. Of course, some category of bonds (HYs, EMs) and some types of bond funds (CEFs) have had even worse drawdowns.
Twitter Chart1, Global Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpXRzBWAAE4PEb?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart2, US Bond Index https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpX43rWIAEYBSa?format=png&name=medium
Twitter Chart3, 5,000 Yr Rate History https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FbpYQ5dWYAUjXh9?format=jpg&name=medium

Not aimed at anyone. Just thinking a lot of folks appear never to have experienced a market correction of 10-15% or a bear market of 20-40% peak to trough in the major averages. Been at least a dozen in my lifetime. 07-09 was the worst. Some indexes and funds fell more than 50% over about a 2 year period. By contrast, the S&P was only down 17% YTD as of yesterday. Since ‘21 was a pretty good year, that 17% is probably not far from where the market topped out.
Doing nothing works if you have a long enough time horizon. Folks working and averaging in haven’t the time some of us do to fret. At 35 I could have cared less what the market did. Slowly raising one’s risk exposure over months or years as the fall continues should also work. One caveat: If one was greedy and running a high risk portfolio before the market fall commenced, there’s not a lot of room left to increase risk level further.
They say don’t invest money in the markets that you will need within 5 or 10 years (opinions on that differ). Mr. Geroux aims to break even within 3 years in his PRWCX - though there are no guarantees. We shall see.

The date is not of particular significance for most (unless a birthday, anniversary of some sort or other) and not so much for me either; except that we started Traditional IRA accounts with a paper check, about 44 years ago. We decided to have a lunch trip in the metro Detroit area of Southfield, Michigan; after stopping at the Fidelity office there and presenting paper checks for that years (1978) deposits. We continued to add over the years, eventually having access to 401's and Roth's.
The above is not really of much value for those reading; except the time value of compounding one's investment monies.
Compounding value, of course; depends upon one's choices driving along the investment highway. Perhaps a full limitation of performance depends upon learning experience (meaning knowledge), perhaps an arse kicking loss here and there; which hopefully helps form a solid thinking base going forward.
Today. A bit wiser for investing. The investments over the years could be worth a lot more today; but also worth a lot less; OR ZERO, if the investments were never made.
A benchmark of FBALX provides a personal performance view for us. We remain at this time, a percent point from its weekly performance, as has been the case for this year. We were at a -13.32% TYD, last week. 'Course, using this percentage causes one to look at that in dollar terms, too. Yikes, that's a lot of money to the down side for this year, so far.
But, the main point is that if we had never invested in the first place; well, there wouldn't exist the money to ponder. Only a paper loss at this time. No sells.
We still do take the time to prod folks into start investing in a retirement account. Whatever amount, start slow, try to set aside some time to learn. You have other skills, and you can learn this, too. Don't do crazy things will this money unless you have a full understanding of the circumstances. Be careful with the emotional side; as this can eat away at your clear thinking. Time compounding is your friend.
I had a conversation a few months ago that has taken place for 30 years. She....."I need to talk to you sometime about investing some of my money". 360 months of compounding gone.
Anyway, we investors exist in a very strange world of terms, strange words and investments with a length and variety of capital letters. Add almost every possible variable that may affect an investment, day or night; and we are indeed sometimes a "Stranger in a Strange Land".
I've jabbered enough.
Remain curious and be well.
Catch

JPMorgan is only the latest bank to be raided.
From four months ago:

The German branch of Morgan Stanley was searched by prosecutors in Frankfurt in relation to "past activity" on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.
...
A large number of banks were involved in the cum-ex deals: In the past few weeks alone there have been raids on the German branches of Barclays and the investment bank Merrill Lynch.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frankfurt-bank-two-homes-searched-relation-cum-ex-scandal-2022-05-03/
The Financial Times reports that:

Prosecutors have been investigating the scandal for years, but the inquiry was stepped up last month when a former senior banker from Fortis bank was arrested in Mallorca at the request of Frankfurt prosecutors.

https://www.ft.com/content/84ad1e87-cad2-47d7-832f-5025b74a081d
(Subscription usually required, though google search may yield access)
As Reuters noted years ago, this was a legal loophole in Germany until 2012, though courts have ruled otherwise.

German banks exploited a legal loophole that allowed two parties to claim ownership of the same shares. ... The loophole was closed in 2012, with the means of claiming double ownership banned. ... a German regional court ruling in February [2016] found there was no legal basis for the double claiming of rebates, even before it was banned in 2012

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-dividends/dividend-tax-scandal-how-banks-short-changed-germany-idUSL8N1991BN
I like the NYTimes description from 2020:

The scheme was built around “cum-ex trading” (from the Latin for “with-without”): a monetary maneuver to avoid double taxation of investment profits that plays out like high finance’s answer to a David Copperfield stage illusion. Through careful timing, and the coordination of a dozen different transactions, cum-ex trades produced two refunds for dividend tax paid on one basket of stocks.
One basket of stocks. Abracadabra. Two refunds.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/business/cum-ex.html
The US has a distantly related form of legerdemain. In the EU, these banks took one basket of stocks and pretended (legal fiction) that it had been taxed twice, In the US, mutual funds and ETFs take one basket of stocks, sell it (via redemption in kind), and pretend (legal fiction) that no sales have taken place. Abracadabra. No capital gains recognized (IRC §852(b)(6)), tax averted.
The main difference seems to be that the EU fiction had a fraudulent intent; the US fiction is out in the open - no fraud. Either way, the legal fictions are tax loopholes.

@Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).

Thanks, @yogibearbull. Extremely detailed and useful! :)

@Crash, ETFdb has been my go-to site for ETFs for years and I noticed a new look and layout only today, 8/29/22 (but not a few days ago when I checked it also) although formally, all this happened in May 2022. Then I got to the bottom of this and that may be too much info for most. Anyway, more explanations follows.
This is an important fund industry (CEFs, OEFs, ETFs) news related to consolidation on 2 fronts.
1. ETF Data & Education. ETFdb (2009- ) is a comprehensive, go-to resource for ETFs. Sister ETFTrend (2005- ) focuses on ETF news, developments and education. ETFdb acquired ETFTrend in 2019.
2. ETF Indexers. Alerian (2004- ) provides indexes for MLP and energy funds. S-Network (1997- ) provides indexes for smart-beta, sector thematic, alternatives and ESG funds. Alerian acquired S-Network in 2020.
Now all of these belong to VettaFi. It is possible/likely that all will retain their identity and names in some form, but their URLs may change eventually. VettFi is a coined/made-up name, and its executives may decide on a unified rebranding at some point (or not).

@Roy, you have what it takes to hold such a fund… more power to you.
@Sven, PRWCX may fall into “group think”… I owned Pimco Income and then the winds changed… winds change so we adjust your sails.
@hank, thanks for your suggestion and comments… In 2023, with retirement looming, I have structured a portion of my portfolio to provide short term income needs. I am comfortable with a 10% loss over the short term (5 years or less) so positions in cash, ST Bonds and funds such as VWINX will hopefully meet my yearly income needs.
If I am lucky enough to not need all of my portfolio to continually fund my 5 year income needs, I will fund longer term investment in funds like PRWCX. I also feel funds in the healthcare and Tech sector (nod to @Ted) continue to be long term trends that I would also consider.

The following individuals are listed by Giroux at the end of his letter and unless I am mistaken, they are all dedicated staff to PRWCX (Mike Signore, Chen Tian, Nikhil Shah, Vivek Rajeswaran, Brian Solomon, and Jared Duda) in addition to all the TRP analysts, associate analysts and quantitative analysts.
So, while Giroux has final say on the portfolio, he is receiving a lot of assistance.
As many of you know from previous postings, we have most of our investments in this one fund. First moved most of our retirement funds into this fund late in 2006 when Giroux was still new, just dumb luck as the move was based on prior performance of the fund and the desire to simplify and reduce volatility. Once we retire or decide 60% + in equities is more than we are comfortable with, this could very easily change. I'm very glad Giroux is 12 years younger than I as this means he may be PM another 10-15 years, fingers crossed!

While I invest in PRWCX as many posters here, a single fund manger poses sizable risk as he/she may no longer running the fund sometime in the future. Regardless what succession plans are in place, it takes time to fully transition successfully to the new manager(s), and there is no guarantee. One way to migrate a singer manager risk is have several co-managers running the fund as a team along with Giroux. Don’t know if there is plan in place already. There are a number of TRP funds are team managed.
I invested with Michael Price when he was running Mutual Series funds back in the 90’s. These funds have solid return while having lower average risk. Then Price sold the Mutual Series funds to Franklin while still running the funds for several years per contract agreement. Other co-managers took over one by one of the Franklin Mutual Series funds. Some was good and some were so so, but they never reach the same. David Winter was one of the more notable manager, but he left to form Wintergreen fund and that fizzled out several years later. We sold just about all Mutual Series funds soon after the Franklin sale. So beware of a single manager risk.

David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all.

Hard to imagine anyone savvy would say such a thing; same age as Danoff and Tillinghast and their funds.

David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_R._Giroux

There are many sites for stocks/funds analytics.
Poster django posted this from Mitre Media at Big Bang, https://mutualfunds.com/
I have used free Stockcharts for years. Subscription allows more complex analytics and storing tickers but I didn't feel the need so far. Similar for free Portfolio Visualizer.
There aren't many good substitutes for old M* Portfolio and I have found Stock Rover as a decent alternative.

Using Mutual Funds for Retirement Income
I have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
Withdrawal Scenario:
If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3, 5,10, and 15 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 15 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
Questions:
Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
We have had an investment environment over the last 15 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
PRWCX as an Annuity

Interest rate increases......of benefit to slow down inflation; OR whether that the FED had to do something to appear to be in control of whatever and doing it's work???
--- What are the three tasks mandated to the Federal Reserve bank?
It is the Federal Reserve's actions, as a central bank, to achieve three goals specified by Congress: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the United States.
AND there is the dual mandate, which is often mentioned:
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is “stable prices” and “maximum employment,” referring to inflation and unemployment. It sounds complicated but means ensuring that the prices you pay for goods and services remain relatively stable over time and that everyone who wants a job in the U.S. economy can find one.
The dual mandate represents the two economic objectives empowering the Federal Reserve’s every move. In other words, the Fed uses the federal funds rate rate to steer the economy toward its dual mandate, while also looking at it as an indication of whether it’s time to attempt to prop up the economy with a rate cut or slow it down with a rate hike.
'Course, as with the market melt/financial crisis of 2008; the FED may become wholly involved with fixes, as needed.
Inflation is global, yes? Two years of Covid impacted so many areas. A crazy Russian further impacted global inflation in the energy sectors. Climate extremes in many countries has also impacted food inflation.
IMHO, it is an exaggeration to blame inflation on excessive fiscal support in the United States. Fiscal support was needed to "hand hold" our economic melt from Covid. Acting on its own, the FED can have only a limited effect on global prices; meaning inflation in the United States.
Higher interest rates to force inflation to 2% ? How many portions of an economy will have to be broken to obtain 2% ?
This is not Paul Volcker's inflation of the early 1980's. I've been there and done that, too.
I remain skeptical of the FEDS plan.
Remain curious,
Catch

With extremely low unemployment and still many unfilled jobs looking for applicants, it seems that inflation may remain at a fairly high level for longer than many expect. Hence, the Fed may have to be quite aggressive in its tightening process over the next couple of years to achieve its stated goals. The markets could experience some tough times down the road.
As David Rosenberg suggests: "Play the long game by being patient, being nimble, since intermittent rallies will come and go, and focusing mostly on capital preservation." This, it seems to me, is particularly good advice for retirees.
Along those lines, two funds that I have been following performed quite well in yesterday's market crash. PGAGX gained 0.47%, and has a YTD gain of 8.44%. FARIX lost only 0.32%, but has a YTD gain of 5.22%.
Good luck,
Fred

I’m not buying it. Markets are still expensive perhaps. Maybe more downside next week. But I’m still optimistic 1-3 years out. Did a little after-hours buying with what little cash I stash in the Roth.
Powell seems to think, from his remarks, he’s another Paul Volcker and that today’s situation remotely resembles that of the 80s. But Volcker’s 80s followed a decade or more of rising inflation - brought on largely by the ‘baby boomers” joining the job force and buying their first homes, new cars, etc. Than, there was that little budget busting “peace keeping” mission in Vietnam.
Geez - Less than 2 years ago Powell and his Fed were trying to stoke higher inflation (when they weren’t busy trading the markets for their own personal gain). Now Humble Jerome intends to help the little fella by throwing him out of work. Having no income is a dandy way to “cool demand.” Yes Sir!

Makes sense to me, @Old_Joe and @Observant1.
I see a big variable, a big issue with the way gummint manipulates and re-defines the sadistics it uses, over the years. Decades, in fact. Ever since I can remember, in fact. So, what are those sadistics actually telling us? It's anyone's flaming guess. When anyone working even part-time is considered employed, but what they need is a full-time thing. Full-time students making pin-money? "Employed." Students employed P/T to try to pay for university? "Employed." What about the ones who bring home the bacon, the bulk of a family's income? Whether female or male? I know, I know: there's a question in the surveys asking whether anyone working P/T would prefer to be working F/T. Our household was selected at random many years ago to answer the employment survey by punching buttons on the phone.
...But then you have all of the distinctions, cut-outs, rearrangements of the sadistics. Look at those numbers, don't look at THOSE OTHER numbers. Like a Chinese menu. Choose 1 from Column A and 2 from Column B, then call me in the morning. Acccchhh. "Lies, damnable lies, then in its own category: SADISTICS.