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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    Reply to @Charles:
    Hi Charles. The 10% is a self-imposed limit that I learned the hard way. I overextended during the dot.com bubble and leading up to the financial crisis of 08-09. I got badly burned by investing to heavily in specific fund managers. Therefore, for the sake of my personal sanity, I limit my fund manager risk to no more than 10% of my portfolio.
    I agree with you that a 4-5 fund portfolio is adequate for diversification. But it may not be adequate enough to diversify away manager risk, IMHO. Just look at Bill Miller, Ken Heebner, etc...
    P.S. Charles, I greatly enjoying reading your comments. Your insights and analysis are spectacular. You are an asset to this forum.
    Mike_E
  • How many unique mutual funds are there?
    Remainder of fund family list:
    Nationwide
    Natixis Funds
    Needham
    Neiman Funds
    Neuberger Berman
    New Alternatives
    New Century Portfolios
    New Covenant
    NEW Path Capital Advisors
    Nicholas
    Niemann
    Nile Capital Investment Trust
    Nomura Partners Funds
    North Country Funds
    North Star Investment Management Corp.
    NorthCoast
    Northeast Investors
    Northern Funds
    Northern Lights Fund Tr (Criticalmath)
    Northern Lights Fund Trust
    Northern Lights Fund Trust (GPS)
    Northern Lights Fund Trust (SCA)
    Northern Lights Fund Trust(Giralda)
    Northern Trust
    Northquest Capital Fund Inc
    Nottingham
    Nuance Communications
    Nuance Investments, LLC
    Nuveen
    Nuveen Investments
    Nysa
    Oak Associates
    Oakmark
    Oberweis
    Oceanstone
    OCM
    Old Mutual Investment Funds
    Old Westbury
    Olstein
    OppenheimerFunds
    Oracle
    Orinda Asset Management, LLC
    O'Shaughnessy Mutual Funds
    Osterweis
    Osterweis Capital Management
    OutfitterFunds
    Pacific Advisors Funds
    Pacific Capital
    Pacific Financial
    Pacific LifeFunds
    Palmer Square Capital Management LLC
    Papp
    Paradigm Funds
    Parnassus
    Pathway Advisors
    Patriot
    Pax World
    Paydenfunds
    Payson Funds
    Pear Tree Funds
    Pennant
    Perimeter Capital
    Perkins
    Permanent Portfolio
    Perritt
    Philadelphia Invmt Ptnrs New Generation
    Phocas
    PIA Mutual Funds
    Piedmont
    PIMCO
    Pinnacle
    Pinnacle Capital Management
    Pioneer Investments
    Plainsboro Funds
    Plan Investment Fund
    PMC Funds
    PNC Funds
    Polaris Funds
    Polen Capital Management Inc
    Pope Family Of Funds
    Poplar Forest Capital
    Portfolio 21
    Portfolio Strategies Inc
    Potkul Funds
    Power Income Fund
    PowerShares
    Prasad Series Trust
    Precidian Funds LLC
    Preservation Trust Advisors
    Presidio Funds
    Primary Trend
    PRIMECAP Odyssey Funds
    Princeton
    Principal Funds
    Private Capital Management
    Profit Funds Investment
    ProFunds
    ProShares
    Prospector Funds
    Prudential Investments
    Purisima Funds
    Putnam
    Pyxis Funds
    Quaker
    Quantitative Services Group LLC (QSG)
    QuantShares
    Queens Road Funds
    Rainier
    Ramius
    Ranger Funds Investment Trust
    RBB Funds
    RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.
    Reaves Select Research
    Redmont
    Reich & Tang
    Reinhartfunds
    Renaissance Capital Greenwich Funds
    Reynolds
    Rice Hall James
    RidgeWorth
    Risk Paradigm Group, LLC
    River Park Funds
    RiverNorth Funds
    RNC Genter Capital Management
    Robeco Investment Funds
    Robeco Investment Management, Inc.
    Rochdale
    Rocky Peak Capital
    Roge Partners Fund
    Roosevelt
    Roxbury Funds
    Royal Bank of Scotland NV
    Royce
    RS Funds
    Russell
    S1 Fund
    SA Funds
    Salient Funds
    Samson
    Sandalwood
    Sands Capital
    Saratoga
    Satuit Capital Management Trust
    Saturna Capital
    Scharf Investments (California)
    Schneider Funds
    Schooner Funds
    Schroder
    Schwab Funds
    Schwartz
    Scout
    Seafarer
    SEI
    Selected Funds
    Sentinel
    Sequoia
    Shelton Capital Management
    Shenkman Capital Management, Inc.
    Sierra Trust
    SignalPoint
    Sit
    Smead Funds
    SMH Capital Advisors
    Smith Barney
    Snow Capital Management L.P.
    Sound Mind
    Sound Shore
    SouthernSunFunds
    Sparrow
    Spirit of America
    STAAR Investment Trust
    Stadion Funds
    State Farm
    State Street Global Advisors
    State Street Master Funds
    SteelPath
    Sterling Capital Funds
    Stewart Capital
    Stone Harbor
    Stonebridge
    Stralem Fund
    Strategic
    Strategic Income Management, LLC
    Stratton
    Stratus Fund
    Stream Exchange Traded Trust
    STW Fixed Income Management LLC
    Summit Global Investments
    SunAmerica
    Sustainable Growth Advisers
    Swan
    Swank
    Swedish Export Credit Corporation
    Symons
    T. Rowe Price
    TacticalShares
    Tanaka
    Target Program
    Tatro Capital, LLC
    Taylor
    TCM Funds
    TCW
    TD Asset Management
    TEAM
    Teberg
    Teucrium
    TFS Capital Funds
    TheCollarFund
    Thesis
    Third Avenue
    Thomas White Funds
    Thompson IM Funds, Inc.
    Thomson Horstmann & Bryant, Inc.
    Thornburg
    Thrivent
    TIAA-CREF Mutual Funds
    Tiedemann Wealth Management, LLC
    Tilson Funds
    Timberline Asset Management LLC
    Timothy Plan
    Tocqueville
    Toews Funds
    Toreador
    Torray
    Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C.
    Touchstone
    Towle & Co
    Transamerica
    Transparent Value Funds
    Transparent Value Trust
    Tributary Funds
    Trust for Credit Unions
    Trust for Professional Mgrs(PTIA)
    TS&W Funds
    Turner Funds
    Tweedy Browne
    Two Oaks Investment Management, Inc.
    U.S. Global Investors
    UBS
    UBS AG
    UCM
    United Association Funds
    United States Commodity Funds LLC
    Upright Investments Trust
    USA Mutuals
    USAA
    VALIC
    Valley Forge
    Value Line
    Van Eck
    Van Hulzen Asset Management, LLC
    Vanguard
    Vantagepoint Funds
    Vericimetry Funds
    VFM
    Victoria1522
    Victory
    Viking
    Villere
    Virtus
    Volumetric
    VRM Funds
    VTL Associates, LLC
    Vulcan Value Partners
    W.P. Stewart
    Waddell & Reed
    Wade Financial
    Wakefield Asset Management LLLP
    Wall Street
    Wall Street EWM Funds Trust
    Walthausen Funds
    Wanger
    Wasatch
    WBI FUNDS
    WCM Investment Management
    Wegener
    Weitz
    Wells Fargo Advantage
    Wentworth, Hauser and Violich
    WesMark
    Westcore
    Westfield Capital Management Company, LP
    Westport Funds
    Westwood
    Whitebox Advisors, LLC
    Whitebox Mutual Funds
    William Blair
    Williamsburg Investment Trust
    Wilmington Funds
    Wilshire Mutual Funds
    Wintergreen Funds
    Wireless
    Wisconsin Capital Management
    WisdomTree
    WOA
    World Funds
    World Funds, Inc
    WorldCommodity Funds
    Wright
    Zacks WMG
    Zeo
    Ziegler Lotsoff Capital Management Inv
  • How many unique mutual funds are there?
    Reply to @David_Snowball: Yes indeed.
    For the record, here are all 767 families...in two posts (1-M, N-Z)
    13D Management
    1492 Capital Management, LLC
    361 Funds
    AAM
    Aberdeen
    Absolute Strategies
    AC ONE
    Academy
    Acadian Funds
    Adams Harkness Funds
    Adirondack Funds
    Advance Capital I
    Advantus
    AdvisorOne Funds
    Advisors' Inner Circle (Chartwell)
    ADVISORS SERIES TRUST(Davidson)
    AdvisorShares
    Advisory Research
    Aegis
    AIS Capital Management LLC
    Akre
    Al Frank
    Alger
    AllianceBernstein
    Allianz Funds
    Allianz Global Investors
    Allied Asset
    Alpha Capital Funds
    AlphaClone
    AlphaMark
    AlphaOne Investment Services, LLC
    Alpine
    ALPS
    Altegris
    AmericaFirst Funds
    American Beacon
    American Century Investments
    American Funds
    American Growth
    American Independence
    American Money Management
    American Pension Investors
    American Trust
    Ameristock
    AMF
    AMIDEX
    Ancora
    Angel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC
    Apex Capital Management
    Appleseed Fund
    Appleton
    AQR Funds
    Aquila
    Arbitrage Fund
    Archer
    Arden Asset Management LLC
    Ariel Investments, LLC
    Aristotle
    Armstrong Associates
    Arrow
    ArrowShares
    Artio Global
    Artisan
    Ascendant
    Ascentia Capital Partners
    Ashmore
    Aston
    Astor
    ATAC Fund
    Auer
    Auxier Funds
    Ave Maria Mutual Funds
    Avenue Capital Group
    Aviemore Funds
    Azzad Fund
    Baird
    Bandon Capital Management, LLC
    Bank of America Corp
    Barclays Funds
    Baron Capital Group
    Barrett
    BBH
    Bearly Bullish Fund
    Beck, Mack & Oliver
    Becker
    Beech Hill
    BeeHive
    Bennett Group Master Funds
    Berkshire
    Bernzott Capital Advisors
    Berwyn
    Biondo Investment Advisor
    Birmiwal
    Bishop Street
    BlackRock
    Blue Chip Investor Fund
    BMO Funds
    BNY Mellon Funds
    Bogle
    Boston Advisors Trust
    Boston Common Asset Management, LLC
    Boston Trust & Walden Funds
    Boyar Value Fund
    BPV Family of Funds
    Brandes
    Brandywine
    Braver Wealth Mangaement, LLC
    Bretton Fund
    Bridgehampton
    Bridges
    Bridgeway
    Bright Rock
    Brookfield Investment Management Inc.
    Brown Advisory Funds
    Brown Capital Management
    Bruce
    BTS
    Buffalo
    Burnham
    Bushido
    Calamos
    Caldwell & Orkin
    Calvert Investments, Inc.
    Cambiar Funds
    CAMCo
    Camelot Portfolios, LLC
    Capital Advisors
    Capital Guardian Trust Company
    Capital Innovations, LLC
    Capital Management
    Capstone
    Caritas Capital LLC
    Carne
    Castle Investment Management
    Catalyst Mutual Funds
    Causeway
    Cavanal Hill funds
    CBRE Clarion Securities LLC
    Center Coast Capital Advisers LP
    Century Funds
    CGM
    Chaconia Funds
    Chadwick & D'Amato
    Champlain Funds
    Changing Parameters, LLC
    Chase
    Chesapeake
    Cheswold Lane Asset Management
    Chou America
    Christopher Weil & Company, Inc.
    Cincinnati Asset Management Funds
    Citigroup
    Clarity Fund
    Clark Capital Management Group, Inc.
    Clark Fork Trust
    Clear River
    Clipper Fund
    Cloud Capital
    CM Advisors
    CMG
    CNI Charter
    Cohen & Steers
    Coldstream
    Collins Capital Investments, LLC
    Columbia
    Commerce
    Commonwealth Intl Series Tr
    Compak
    Compass EMP
    Concorde
    Conestoga Capital Advisors
    Congress
    Congressional Effect Family
    Contravisory Investment Management, Inc.
    Convergence
    Cook & Bynum Capital Management, LLC
    Copeland Capital Management
    Copley
    CornerCap
    Cornerstone
    Cortina Funds, Inc.
    Country
    Cove Street Capital
    CRAFund
    Crawford
    Credit Suisse (New York, NY)
    Credit Suisse AG
    CRM
    Croft
    Crow Point Partners, LLC
    Cullen Funds Trust
    Cushing
    Cutler
    Cutwater Asset Management Corp.
    CWC
    Davidson Mutual Funds
    Davis Funds
    Davlin Philanthropic Fund
    Day Hagan
    Dean Fund
    Delaware Investments
    Destra
    Deutsche Bank
    DF Dent Funds
    DGHM
    DGI
    Diamond Hill Funds
    Dimensional Fund Advisors
    Direxion Funds
    DMS FUNDS
    Dodge & Cox
    Domini
    DoubleLine
    Dreman
    Drexel Hamilton Investment Partners, LLC
    Dreyfus
    Driehaus
    DSM
    DundeeWealth Funds
    Dunham Funds
    DuPont
    Dupree
    DWS Investments
    E.I.I.
    Eagle
    Eagle Funds
    EAS Genesis
    Eaton Vance
    Edgar Lomax
    Edgewood
    Elessar Investment Management
    Emerald
    Emerging Global Advisors
    Empire Builder
    Empiric Funds
    Encompass Fund
    EntrepreneurShares
    Epiphany Funds
    Equinox Funds Trust
    Equity Investment Corp
    Estabrook
    ETF Securities Ltd
    Euro Pacific Asset Management
    Euro Pacific Halter Asia Management, Inc
    Eventide Funds
    Evermore
    Exchange Traded Concepts, LLC
    Factor Capital Management, LLC
    Fairfax
    Fairholme
    FAM
    FAM Funds
    FCI Funds
    FDP Series Funds
    Federated
    Fidelity Investments
    Fiduciary Asset Management, LLC
    Financial Investors Trust (Aspen)
    Financial Investors Trust (Grandeur)
    First American
    First Eagle
    First Investors
    First Trust
    First Western Capital Mgt
    Firsthand Funds
    Flex-funds
    FMC Funds
    FMI Funds
    FolioMetrix
    Forester
    Formula Investing, LLC
    Fort Pitt Capital Funds
    Forward Funds
    Fountainhead Funds
    FPA
    Frank Funds
    Franklin Templeton Investment Funds
    Freedom Funds
    Frontegra Asset Management Inc
    Frontegra Funds
    Frost Funds
    Fund X
    FX Strategy Fund
    Gabelli
    GaveKal
    GE Asset Management
    Geier Funds
    Geneva Funds
    Gerstein Fisher
    Giant 5 Funds
    Ginkgo
    Glenmede
    GLG Inc
    Global X Funds
    GMG
    GMO
    Golden Capital Funds
    Goldman Sachs
    Golub
    GoodHaven
    Gotham
    Granite Investment Advisors, Inc.
    Grant Park
    Great Lakes Funds
    Great-West Funds
    Green Century
    GreenHaven
    Greenspring
    GRT
    Guggenheim Investments
    GuideMark
    GuidePath
    GuideStone Funds
    Guinness Atkinson
    Hagin Capital, LLC
    Hamlin Capital Mgt LLC
    Hancock Horizon
    Hancock Horizon Funds
    Hansberger Funds
    Harbor
    Harding Loevner
    Hart Group, Ltd.
    Hartford Mutual Funds
    Hatteras Alternative Mutual Funds Trust
    Haverford
    Heartland
    Henderson Global
    Hennessy
    Henssler Funds
    HighMark
    Hillman Capital Management
    HNP Capital LLC
    Hodges
    Holland Series Trust
    Homestead
    Hotchkis and Wiley
    HSBC
    Huber Funds
    Hundredfold
    Huntington
    Huntington Strategy Shares
    Hussman Funds
    ICM Series Trust
    ICON Funds
    Iknetics Capital Partners, LLC
    IMS
    IndexIQ
    ING Funds
    ING Retirement Funds
    Innealta Capital
    Institutional Advisors LLC
    Institutional Investors
    Integrity
    International Securites Exchange
    Intrepid Funds
    Invesco
    Investment House LLC
    Investment Partners
    Iron Funds
    IronBridge Funds, Inc.
    Ironclad Funds
    iShares
    ISI Funds
    IVA Funds
    Ivy Funds
    Jacob
    Jacobs Broel
    JAG Advisors
    James Advantage
    Janus
    Jensen
    John Hancock
    Johnson Mutual Funds
    Jordan Funds
    JPMorgan
    JPMorgan Asset Mgmt (Europe) S.a.r.l.
    JPMorgan Funds
    Jubak
    Kalmar Pooled Investment Trust
    KCM
    Keeley
    Kellner
    Keystone
    Kinetics
    Kirr Marbach Partners
    KKR
    Kottke
    Kovitz Investment Group, LLC
    Lacerte Capital
    Lateef Investment Management, L.p.
    Laudus Funds
    Lawson Kroeker Investment Management Inc
    Lazard
    LEADER
    Leavell
    Lee Financial Group Inc
    Leeb
    Legg Mason
    Legg Mason/Western
    Leuthold
    Liberty Street
    Lifetime Achievement Fund Inc
    Lincoln Financial Group
    Linde, Hansen & Co., LLC
    Litman Gregory Masters Funds
    LKCM
    LoCorr Fund Management, LLC
    Logan Capital
    Long Short
    Longboard
    Longleaf Partners
    LongView Capital Management LLC
    Loomis Sayles Funds
    Lord Abbett
    LSV Fund
    M.D. Sass Investors Services, Inc.
    Madison Mosaic
    MAI
    MainGate Trust
    MainStay
    Mairs & Power
    Makefield
    Managed Futures Solutions Fund
    Managers Funds
    Manning & Napier
    Manor Investment Funds
    Marathon Funds
    Mariner Fund Group
    Marketocracy Funds
    Marsico Investment Fund
    Martin Capital Management LLP
    MassMutual
    Matrix/LMH
    Matthew 25
    Matthews Asia Funds
    McKee Funds
    Meehan Focus
    MEMBERS
    Merger
    Meridian
    Merk Funds
    Merrill Lynch
    Metropolitan West Funds
    MFS
    MH Elite
    Midas
    Milestone
    Miller Investment
    Milliman
    Mirae Asset Global Investments (USA) LLC
    MMA Praxis
    Monetta
    Monteagle Funds
    Morgan Dempsey Capital Management, LLC
    Morgan Stanley
    Morgan Stanley & Co
    Morgan Stanley (New York)
    Motley Fool
    MP 63
    Muhlenkamp
    Munder
    Mundoval Funds
    Mutual of America
    Mutualhedge
    Muzinich
  • Has The Bull Market In Stocks Become 'Too Big To Fail'
    Reply to @Charles: As for people who got out of stocks and/or who haven't gotten in and or who have fleed to bonds entirely, I think it's unfortunate that there's no exploration of the psychology after you have three years of almost consistent outflows of stocks and visibly less interest in investing (if measured by searches, business channel ratings, outflows etc.)
    Maybe not "faux wealth", but people act as if it's a free lunch. As David Einhorn noted on CNBC a couple of years ago: "I think you can argue that, because we have gotten to the point where the transmission method is broken. You are trying to create a wealth effect which is another asset-based economy thing, it's very questionable whether higher stock prices cause lots of incremental demand, and you have the cost of food and energy which are real things that people have to pay for. And if you have to pay $3, $4 or $5 for gas, you have less money to go out to eat."
    Commodity prices, highlighting Bernanke's time period:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/02/20130227_Bernanke.jpg
    Meanwhile, prices for many common needs continue to rise noticeably. Meanwhile, what % of people own what % of stocks in this country, while much of the rest just sees higher prices as the effect? The Fed has admitted that they are trying for a "wealth effect", and it's troubling that blowing one asset bubble after another would appear to be the only idea that government has. That's not a solid foundation or sustainable without continued stimulus. I agree with what Seth Klarman said the other day: "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors."
    Collapse? I don't think so, but I see big picture problems that aren't being addressed at all (not surprising, given you have a government unable to work together) and worry about social instability if the gap in this country between the haves and have nots continues to get wider. I remain curious about the continued ability to blow one asset bubble after another - if we go into recession, we already have ZIRP and QE.
    Not saying anything against stocks, I think people have to own stocks because you have a government who has effectively given up decision making and told the Fed to (as Senator Schumer told Bernanke) "Get to work." They've been working with ZIRP and QE for the majority of the last four-five years, and I think they'll continue to until the next election.
    While I'm not going to debate valuation, I do think this chart showing margin correlation to the markets is rather interesting:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130301_indu.jpg
  • Whitebox Tactical Opportunities Fund 4Q Commentary...A Change In Outlook
    Reply to @scott:
    Thanks Scott for the reply.I personally do not consider the Koch brothers infamous but they certainly have been characterized as that or worse by the same people who will continue to extol wind and solar as the best(only?) alternatives for future energy needs.The engineers employed by the Koch Bros. will continue to be more positive for everyday life for many more people than the financial engineers in George Soro's employ for the elite.
    Here is what I could find concerning Cheung Kong Infrastructure.This is a very large Co.and as you said, with worldwide assets. Great 10 year stock chart,but like many Chinese Co.'s,has flattened out a bit since '08. BIP has performed much better in the past 5 yrs and I feel has a wider asset base including the ports,airports,and roads you have previously mentioned.
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=HKG:1038&ed=us&ei=Qc0yUbjdPIOvqQGAJw
    Here is another example of how liberally a supposedly narrow investment sleeve can be interpreted by a good manager.I finally discovered this fund late last year and would recommend it to expand one's real estate investments.You don't get the the dividends with a pure REIT fund holder but probably a better chance at growth as exemplified by the record.
    http://www.baronfunds.com/mutual-funds/baron-real-estate-fund/brefx/?tab=Holdings#portfolioHoldings
    The pipelines are probably a safer way to play the shale play.Talk about volatility,the explorers are not a game I want to play.Bought some CESDF on Fri on some slight weakness.6.29% dividend paid monthly.For now that's my play in the oil patch.Waiting for some weakness in INF.
    Good primer on shale and energy here:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1238721-shale-we-dance-how-best-to-profit-now-from-energy-investments?source=email_alternative_energy_investing&ifp=0
    Thanks for your involvement and your non-condescending approach.
  • Wealth Management Firms: More Stocks, Fewer Bonds
    In the article one firm was allocating more industrial metals as alternative investment. Ironically the demand for industrial metals and most commodities are up when economy is in good shape in which case stocks will probably do well as well. I suspect when next crisis hits these alternative investments will fall short.
    They are pushed to unsuspecting investors because of the fear of stocks and so-called alternative investments have become the way for these investment firms to replace the fees they had been collecting from stock investors prior to last financial crisis. Now bonds did not provide enough fees so they had to find and alternative for themselves. Not really for the clients.
  • Portfolio Survival Analysis Using Real Data
    Hi Investor, Hi Greg,
    Thank you guys for taking time to reply to my post. Both your responses were thoughtful and thought provoking. They both added to the scope and utility of my original submittal.
    Investor, the articles that you suggested greatly expand the usefulness of my posting by identifying two strategies that focus on the execution of retirement portfolio maintenance. Retirees and near-retirees will benefit from exposure to these two excellent summary articles.
    Also, I was not aware that the author of the article I referenced was part of Paul Merriman’s FundAdvice staff. I did not recognize the potential conflict of interest. I like Merriman, but he has special incentives because of his financial relationships with DFA. There’s the possibilities of some biased opinions because of that relationship. Thanks for the heads-up. In this instance, I am not overly concerned of any major distortions or misrepresentations because I trust Merriman and I trust the DFA organization. Both do yeoman work.
    Greg, your interpretations of the reported work, and your intuitions on possible outcomes for the scenarios that you postulated are spot-on-target.
    Even today, for Monte Carlo codes that nominally adjust drawdown rates to reflect inflation rate changes, the Monte Carlo tools can be effectively used to examine the constant drawdown case you proposed. That’s simply done by setting inflation rate and it variability to zero in the inputs. The very first Monte Carlo code that I developed did not include an inflation adjustment. As you correctly perceived, the general contour, in terms of an optimum asset allocation distribution, are about the same both with and without inflation considerations. Portfolio failure rates are obviously impacted, but your excellent Bath-tube description as a function of equity percentages is still valid.
    Indeed, being ultra-conservative by including too few equities in a portfolio is a risky proposition in a retirement portfolio, especially these days with extremely low fixed-income yields. Remember that fixed-income products also have a returns volatility aspect. That variability essentially means that any drawdown schedule from most fixed-income dominated portfolios must be lower than the expected overall average return from that portfolio because of that lowered, but still non-zero, volatility. In the end, that translates into either a very low permissible (and not acceptable) withdrawal rate or an unrealistically gigantic portfolio size.
    Once again, thank you guys for your perceptive and useful inputs.
    Best Wishes.
  • Are bond funds still a safe investment?
    Aberdeen’s Bruce Stout, manager of the £1.4bn Murray International trust, has urged investors to diversify out of bonds to avoid heavy losses when central banks stop the printing presses.
    Stout, speaking to shareholders as the trust reported its annual results today, said investors are underestimating the potential consequences of unprecedented central bank stimulus.
    "A lethal cocktail of unparalleled levels of global debt and unparalleled global money printing, shaken and stirred by numerous financial indicators at multi-century highs/lows, suggests a global fixed income hangover is fast approaching," he said.
    "There is no precedent within fixed income history to assess the likely damage, but significant sums of money will be lost."
    Stout's fixed income pessimism is shared by Robin Geffen, CEO of Neptune Investment Management, who in December warned bond investors should brace themselves for severe losses when the interest rate cycle turns.
    Geffen argues the long end of the bond market will fall between 30% and 40% when interest rates and inflation normalise.
    http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2251064/shaken-and-stirred-how-to-beat-the-fixed-income-hangover
    Citi strategist Matt King, who sent us this chart in December, put it this way: "Since 2007, credit mutual fund assets have doubled, while dealers' corporate bond inventories have halved. So while in 2007, it would have taken a 50% outflow from mutual funds to double the size of the street's inventory, now if there were to be a 5% outflow it would double the size of the inventory."
    In other words, the "buffer" of higher inventories on bank balance sheets provided the market with liquidity.
    Now, that buffer is gone.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-bond-funds-to-spark-next-crisis-2013-2
  • Portfolio Survival Analysis Using Real Data
    Very nice @MJG.
    Larry Katz is the Director of Research at Merriman Inc., a Seattle Based Financial Advisor. These folks also ran FundAdvice.com which provided educational material although with the retirement of founder Paul Merriman last year, FundAdvice.com has lost some of its previous content that I used to refer to. (Update: The article you posted in available in perhaps a bit better format at here)
    Two of my favorite articles are "Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation" and "Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy".
    Fine Tuning Article contained a table that provided the performance, risk and max drawdown information for various equity and bond mixes. Armed with that information an investor could make a more intelligent choice what risk/return level he/she is comfortable with and the what sort of downside could be expected at the portfolio level. Here is the 2011 Update that I can find. They used to update this article with each new year data. If it is updated since 2011, it is not publicly exposed anymore. :( I'll try to ping them to see if they will continue to update this one.
    For the other article they continue to provide year to year updates to numbers. There is now a 2013 Update to Ultimate Buy-and-Hold Strategy article. Direct link is here.
    The article you have linked and these two provide a good set of educational material.
  • RS Global Natural Resources Fund to close
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814232/000119312513077549/d491498d497.htm
    497 1 d491498d497.htm RS GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES FUND
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-16439 and 811-05159
    RS INVESTMENT TRUST
    Supplement to Summary Prospectuses for RS Global Natural Resources Fund
    (Class A, C, K, and Y shares) Dated May 1, 2012
    Before you invest, you may want to review the Fund’s prospectus, which contains more information about the Fund and its risks. You can find the Fund’s prospectus and other information about the Fund, including the Fund’s Statement of Additional Information (SAI) and most recent reports to shareholders, online at www.RSinvestments.com/prospectus. You can also get this information at no cost by calling 800-766-3863 or by sending an e-mail request to [email protected]. You can also get this information from your financial intermediary. The Summary Prospectus incorporates by reference the Fund’s Prospectus, dated May 1, 2012, as supplemented February 26, 2013, and SAI, dated May 1, 2012, as revised December 12, 2012, and the financial statements included in the Fund’s annual report to shareholders, dated December 31, 2011.
    Effective March 15, 2013, the following is added to the section titled “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares”:
    The Fund is currently offered only to certain investors.
    For additional information, see “How to Purchase Shares -- Other Information About Purchasing Shares” in the supplement dated February 26, 2013, to the Fund’s Prospectus, dated May 1, 2012.
    February 26, 2013
  • Whitebox Tactical Opportunities Fund 4Q Commentary...A Change In Outlook
    Reply to @scooter: I like real, productive assets, but I think my likes have been too specific for broader funds. Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) remains a very large holding and which was just upgraded by Raymond James (link) I like MLPs, but own Kinder Morgan given the company's remarkable size and scale. I like the "toll road" aspect of the pipelines and while they certainly have risks (headline risk, political risk, etc), you look at a Kinder Morgan that has 180 terminals and tens of thousands of miles of pipeline and, really, who could come in and try to replicate what they've built and compete on that level? Much like the rails, the major pipeline companies (Enbridge, Kinder, Transcanada and a number of others) are in a situation where it would be extraordinarily difficult for someone else to really come in.
    I will not be allocating any more to these two investments, but will let dividends reinvest, and both provide significant dividends. Brookfield is a company and has company-specific risk (as well as the added paperwork of a K-1 at tax time), but it's unique in that it's almost a fund of specific infrastructure projects - everything from ports to pipelines to toll roads - around the world, and a pure and opportunistic play on infrastructure.
    I also own a couple of other pipeline companies, one of which is a smaller recent investment in Australia's APA Group, which is the largest nat gas pipeline co in Australia (although they have some other investments besides pipelines.) That yields about 5.75%.
    There are a number of infrastructure funds (TOLLX is a popular example), but I personally just like specific names.
    Infrastructure has done well. Some other things not so much. I own Glencore, which I like from the standpoint of the company's demonstrated skill in commodities trading, as well as the company's remarkable collection of real assets, which includes hundreds of thousands of acres of owned or leased foreign farmland. They also bought grain handler Viterra (although some of that is going to be sold to other companies) and are in the midst of merging with miner Xstrata, which turned into a long, strange trip lasting the last year. Glencore has not done well, but it's a long-term (and I think very unique) play that I still like very much.
    I've noted recently that I like WP Carey, which turned into a REIT last Fall. "From the CEO: "The premise is pretty simple. We buy a company’s most important real estate, and then we lease it back to them for a long period of time, 15 to 25 years typically. During that time, the contract includes rent increase provisions, typically those would be CPI-related, but not always. Sometimes they’re fixed rental increases. So we get the benefit of that rising income over time, and that’s where you get your cycle resistance, because no matter what’s happening in a local market at a given time, if the tenant continues to pay rent as they’re expected to, then you’ll have rising income. But at the same time, because it’s a triple-net lease structure and the tenant pays the taxes, the insurance and the operating expenses, the investors are not exposed to cost inflation." The company has demonstrated - pretty consistently - success in this field.
    I continue to like the Asian conglomerates. Jardine Matheson has done better than Hutchsion Whampoa, but the latter is one of the world's biggest port operators and owns one of the world's largest health and beauty retailers. Both are trading around book value, but still are certainly not without risk. Jardine is more consumer-centric, but I like it's Dairy Farm subsidiary a good deal, which has done very well and includes some exposure to familiar brands, including a few IKEA stores in Asia.
    I like telecoms. I owned (and bailed, d'oh) on Vodafone after it has continued to disappoint and while I won't go as far as to call it a value trap, I don't think it's the value I initially believed it was - not a real serious mistake, but I'll admit it was a mistake on my part. I still own - and consider a long-term holding - another foreign telecom company that has fared better.
    I like rail, although I think I like it from the standpoint that some are seeing benefits from oil exploration (like Buffett's Burlington Northern). However, some are seeing benefits and some have lagged, especially those who had a focus on coal.
    I like some tech more than others. I like Google. I don't like MSFT. I like what I call "financial technology" a good deal. This includes investments in things like mobile banking and other advancements in payment technology (EMV, mobile payments.) I think this is a long-term story. I don't own it, but I think Fiserv is a US example of something that fits into this category (FISV). Visa and MC are as well, although I think these are still tied heavily into the strength (or not) of the consumer.
    It sounds unusual for me, but I actually like Wal-Mart. The company offers some emerging markets exposure (they own 51% of Massmart in South Africa, for example); the company's scope and logistics expertise is astonishing and I think there is still a large part of the population reliant upon WMT's low prices (and probably go there for cheaper pharmacy prices). Look at today's earnings call from Dollartree that was very positive, and Target's - which wasn't so hot. Wal-Mart's attempts to integrate more technology in the shopping experience can be seen with Wal-Mart labs, and I think WMT takes more share as places like Best Buy have trouble. It's also taking away market share - I think - from some grocers. The only other retail play that I find interesting but it's not high on my list is Fast Retailing, a Japanese company whose Uniqlo subsidiary is moving into the US and trying to take on Gap.
    Wal-Mart is boring, but I think that - with a portion of one's portfolio - is that boring can be beautiful. Procter and Gamble and General Mills are other examples, although are overbought - I think - at this point. However, large established brands that pay nice dividends that you don't have to babysit are something that I think should be considered.
    I like yield. Every single name I own offers a yield, many of them a very nice yield. If I can like the business and get paid a very nice yield to wait, that's really optimal, that's what I'm looking for.
    I like healthcare, but - with a couple of exceptions - it's something I play with a fund and would recommend owning a fund. I understand some things and some broad concepts when it comes to modern medicine, but I certainly don't have a degree in modern medicine and a lot of it I either don't feel I'm qualified by any means to analyze or it's just greek to me.
    Abbott Labs, which is now heavily nutrition (Ensure, etc) and whatnot) after it split and has considerable EM exposure is another example I like. Yacktman isn't entirely a match for this, but it remains heavily in large, established brands like PG, Pepsi, Coke, J & J, etc. There's also the SPLV low volatility ETF, as well as AQR's US Defensive Equity Fund (AUENX). Yacktman, SPLV and AUENX are not going to do as well when the market is ramping, but should allow one to sleep a bit better at night, and SPLV offers monthly dividends, which of course means the appealing ability to reinvest monthly. I think given where the market is now, if someone wants to add something new (although I'd wait for a pullback, but for those who don't want to wait...), the SPLV with its monthly dividend and portfolio of very large, established names, is an appealing option.
    I do not own a fixed-income specific fund, although there is fixed income within some funds, such as AQR Risk Parity and Ivy Asset Strategy.
    In terms of long-term themes, I like water and agriculture (there are ETF's and an Allianz fund for water, and ETF's for ag). These are volatile.
    I also continue to like funds that have greater flexibility, including funds like Marketfield. I get where people are coming from with their concerns about FPA Crescent, but I continue to strongly agree with FPA Crescent manager Steve Romick and think the fund remains a very good choice. I am also positive on First Source Wasatch Income and Parnassus Equity Income, as well as the Matthews Asian equity income funds.
    Sorry I couldn't be more help on the fund side, but I think my interests have gotten lately specific to the point where I've become interested in single names.
    Lastly, rather than the rally monkey that some sites post, I'll offer... well, Microsoft's Ballmer acting like a nutcase. Only, this time, this is "Ballmer: The ITunes Remix."

  • Whitebox Tactical Opportunities Fund 4Q Commentary...A Change In Outlook
    A fund that offers a unique point of view, has flexibility, is not heavily correlated to the market and has a demonstrated track record of success (in this case, with the company's hedge funds) is appealing. I view this fund as part of a second generation of long-short vehicles that are more flexible with the definition (this doesn't even fall into the l/s category on Morningstar, interestingly.) Funds that, despite being "long-short" funds, realize that there's going to be times where there aren't many short opportunities, and have the ability to dial up and down risk to a greater degree. I think these funds may lose more in down markets than a number of their long-short peers, but also have the potential to capture more of the upside in up markets than many of their long-short peers.
    Marketfield also falls under this category, as well. These funds definitely rely on management calls (although certainly every fund does), but I believe that the flexibility offered will be positive in the years to come.
    Otherwise, I've thought for a while that essentially A:) we didn't learn anything from 2008, it was just "how quickly can we throw money at the problem to reboot everything?" However, with the Fed doing what it was doing, you had to be invested. Now, as I said the other day, it's nearly 5 years later and the Fed is still doing QE and ZIRP and the training wheels have not been taken off. What if we do have a recession, or are we not going to have them anymore because they'll just be met with more QE?
    Seth Klarman noted the other day that, "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors."
    Personally, I think, despite what markets have done, there is some degree of shakiness to the foundation because what has happened is built on what the Fed has done, but nothing more than that; there has not been real reform to the financial system to strengthen the underlying foundation.
    Or, as Jacob Rothschild recently noted, "“We are living through a
    period of unparalleled
    complexity and
    uncertainty.” These
    words remain as
    regrettably true today as
    when I wrote them in
    my report to you two
    years ago. To avoid the
    situation becoming even
    worse, governments
    continue to roll their
    printing presses in one
    form or another. Their
    actions prevent systemic
    collapse but the deeper
    underlying problems
    remain."
    That's not to say that I think people should freak out. That's not to say that I think you should sell everything. However, I think if someone is in retirement age or near retirement age especially, take a look at what you own and realize that the markets have been very comfortable the last few years. They may remain comfortable, but realize that there remain real issues here and abroad that have not really been addressed at the core level. If the market did have a substantial downturn, would you sleep well at night? If not, this may be a point, given where markets are, where you want to address that. That's not to say that a substantial downturn would be another 2008, and there are funds that allow people to remain invested, but with less risk and volatility. There's no one path to recommend, because everyone is different and everyone has different goals, different risk tolerance, etc, but I think the general idea is to remain invested but - at this point (especially if you're towards retirement age - maybe dial down risk a bit if you believe that some of what you own may not fare well if things were to turn South at this point.
    As for the Whitebox letter, I think confidence in treasuries comes down to a belief that the Fed can buy enough paper to keep rates low, but I think retail investors continue to pile into bonds because they believe that there's a level of safety in bonds that can be maintained for the foreseeable future and they're looking for yield. That "safety" can go on for longer than anyone can think it will, but eventually the Bond market will turn South. People continue to reach for yield (no surprise, given that they can't earn anything in CDs or other "risk-free return") in fixed income and REITs and MLPS, but I think personally, given the environment, I'd rather own real, productive assets and get yield from that.
    Additionally, as Marc Faber noted - and I agree with, at least for the foreseeable future - "I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company, than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments." If the bond market really turns substantially (and possibly suddenly), I think it will be large, institutional-level sellers that do it. It's not going to be all the retail money that has gone into bonds that will be first to leave.
    In terms of the even the "rosy" scenario discussed in the Whitebox letter, I think there are some fairly large transitions implied by that, and while they may just go smoothly, I tend to believe that large transitions by many people, at one point or another, tend to get disorderly. Hopefully not. I do agree with the favoring of well-established large caps and I think a Yacktman or "Yacktman-like" fund of big brands and established names an appealing place to be right now vs taking more aggressive risks.
    As for the Fed and Treasury losing credibility, that will likely never happen, because the Fed is the Great and Powerful Oz. The Treasury is, well, some new guy. I tend to wonder if there was ever a real loss of credibility for the Fed if it would ever be started internally, and wonder if it would be more likely an external event. But, that's neither here nor there.
    I did find the discussion of "devaluation is inevitable" if treasuries rise towards 600bps rather interesting and I would have liked the letter to go into a little more detail on that.
    There have been a lot of discussions of the implications of rates even getting back to rates considered "normal" lately, and it makes me tend to believe that if that occurs sooner than later, it would be due to things getting disorderly. I also question whether we will get the growth that is needed that is discussed in the letter, and if we do, it becomes a matter of how much is that growth actually costing, and the diminishing returns on the cost of buying the appearance of growth.
    Overall, I think that people should not freak out, but realize that there are real risks that have not been addressed in the financial system and real obstacles yet ahead. Things, in terms of the markets, have been very comfortable for a while. I'd say stay invested, but the time to look to reduce potential volatility and risk is not in the midst of crisis, it's when everything seems comfortable.
  • Flack's SMA Method...
    Dear MJG,
    Thanks for joining the discussion.
    From your most recent post –
    ”…tentative attempt to forecast market movement.”
    “…composite forecasting criteria…”
    “…to forecast market movement…”
    I find it interesting that you attempt to forecast the market,
    even though you have posted numerous times that forecasting
    is an unproductive activity.
    To keep this short, the single Simple Moving Average device
    that we’ve been discussing is NOT a forecasting device.
    It identifies and follows the major market moves.
    Every financial advisor on this planet recognizes that when the market (S&P)
    is above the 200-day simple moving average we’re in a bull market and when it’s
    below, we’re in a bear market.
    BTW, I couldn’t locate the Monday WSJ data you mentioned.
    Flack
  • Market Guru Yells "Sell Now"-- Should You ?
    Doctor Doom's outlook is short-term bullish, long-term catastrophic:
    “The risk of the end game from QE is not going to be goods inflation, it's not going to be a rout in the bond market,” Roubini says. “The risk is ... (that) ... we could create an asset bubble worse than the previous one, which could lead to another financial crisis not this year, not next year, but two or three years down the line ...."
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/nouriel-roubini-bullish-now-mother-bubbles-begun-140143386.html
  • Gateway Fund Manager change

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406305/000119312513068397/d490156d497.htm
    1 d490156d497.htm GATEWAY TRUST
    GATEWAY FUND
    Supplement dated February 21, 2013 to the Gateway Fund Prospectus, dated May 1, 2012, and Gateway Fund Summary Prospectus, dated May 1, 2012, as may be revised and supplemented from time to time.
    Effective immediately, J. Patrick Rogers no longer serves as portfolio manager of the Gateway Fund. All references to Mr. Rogers and corresponding disclosure relating to Mr. Rogers are removed.
    Effective February 21, 2013, the information in the “Portfolio Managers” sub-section within the section “Management” in the Summary Prospectus and the Prospectus is revised to include the following:
    Paul R. Stewart, CFA, president and CEO of the Adviser, has served as co-portfolio manager of the Fund (including the Gateway Predecessor Fund) since 2006.
    Michael T. Buckius, CFA, senior vice president and chief investment officer of the Adviser, has served as co-portfolio manager of the Fund since 2008.
    Kenneth H. Toft, CFA, senior vice president and portfolio manager of the Adviser, has served as co-portfolio manager of the Fund since 2013.
    Effective February 21, 2013, the reference to J. Patrick Rogers in the sub-section “Meet the Funds’ Portfolio Managers” within the section “Management Team” in the Prospectus is hereby deleted.
    Effective February 21, 2013, the sub-section “Meet the Funds’ Portfolio Managers” within the section “Management Team” is revised to include the following:
    Paul R. Stewart — Mr. Stewart joined the Predecessor Adviser in 1995. He served as treasurer of the Predecessor Trust through 1999 and as chief financial officer of the Predecessor Adviser through 2003. He became a senior vice president of the Predecessor Adviser and began working in the area of portfolio management in 2000. Mr. Stewart was appointed chief investment officer of the Predecessor Adviser in 2006 and president and CEO of the Adviser in 2013. He served as co-portfolio manager of the Gateway Fund since 2006. Mr. Stewart received a BBA from Ohio University in 1988. He holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst.
    Michael T. Buckius — Mr. Buckius joined the Predecessor Adviser in 1999 and holds the positions of senior vice president and chief investment officer. He has been a co-portfolio manager of the Gateway Fund since 2008 and serves as co-portfolio manager of three funds sub-advised by Gateway. Mr. Buckius holds a B.A. and M.B.A. in Finance from Loyola College in Baltimore. He holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst.
    Kenneth H. Toft — Mr. Toft joined the Predecessor Adviser in 1992 and holds the positions of senior vice president and portfolio manager. He has been co-portfolio manager of the Fund since 2013. Mr. Toft holds a B.A. and M.B.A. from the University of Cincinnati. He holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst.
  • Mid Caps, Berkshire Hathaway Heavy Funds And Thanks
    I'm rather new at investing, and it has taken a while to get up to speed on some of the complexities of this endeavor. Having decided to pull the trigger on my own, I'd like to ask the many experts on this forum a couple of questions.
    1. Are all segments of the M* blocks needed for a well-rounded portfolio? I have small caps and a great deal of large caps covered. Does one need mids or can I forgo this segment?
    2. I have become enamored with Warren Buffett and his financial empire and would like to have some of his in a mutual fund. How do I find out which funds carry his stock? I looked at M* and found you can get a top ten or so funds, but how about the hundreds of others that are not listed?
    3. I believe price plays a role in profits. Should I come up with an arbitrary number that will delineate funds for purchase or not? In other words is it acceptable to have a cut-off of, say 1.10 ER as a high end on whether to buy?
    4. Finally, do you guys ever buy Transaction Fee funds through the brokers or is this a crazy thing to do?
    Thanks for any comments that will help me navigate this fun and hopefully profitable project.
    Mike
  • Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income conference call highlights
    Dear friends,
    We spent a bit over an hour talking with Andrew Foster of Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income. About 50 people phoned-in to listen. Among the highlights of the call, for me:
    1. Andrew offered a rich discussion about his decision to launch the fund. The short version: early in his career, he concluded that emergent China was "the world's most under-rated opportunity" and he really wanted to be there. By late 2009, he noticed that China was structurally slowing. That is, it was slow because of features that had no "easy or obvious" solution, rather than just slowly as part of a cycle. He concluded that "China will never be the same." Long reflection and investigation led him to begin focusing on other markets, many of which were new to him, that had many of the same characteristics that made China exciting and profitable a decade earlier. Given Matthews' exclusive and principled focus on Asia, he concluded that the only way to pursue those opportunities was to leave Matthews and launch Seafarer.
    2. He believes that Seafarer has three distinguishing characteristics. (1) They're obsessive about bottom-up research and don't try to make calls about currencies or regional dynamics as part of the process. They may factor such things in but only because they bear on a particular firm that interests him. (2) Their portfolio is built by a single individual, driven by individual securities, rather than by some combination of multiple overlaps, portfolio sleeves and internal corporate politics. The fact that he's "immensely afraid of failure" leads him to a carefully conceived, concentrated portfolio. (3) Their focus is on sustainable growth, with income. He tried to avoid "high concept" stocks and especially those whose success is largely dependent on the whims of politicians or bureaucrats. His preference is for more seasoned firms with slower, sustainable growth paths.
    3. Income has three functions in the portfolio. (1) It serves as a check on the quality of a firm's business model. At base, you can't pay dividends if you're not generating substantial, sustained free cash flow and generating that flow is a sign of a healthy business. (2) It serves as a common metric across various markets, each of which has its own accounting schemes and regimes. (3) It provides as least a bit of a buffer in rough markets. Andrew likened it to a sea anchor, which won't immediately stop a ship caught in a gale but will slow it, steady it and eventually stop it.
    4. On whole, he believes that equities are more attractively priced than are fixed-income securities, hence he's about 90% equities.
    5. As markets have become a bit stretched - prices are up 30% since the recent trough but fundamentals have not much changed - he's moved at the margins from smaller names to larger, steadier firms.
    6. The fund can, but generally won't, hedge its currency exposure.
    7. Following Teapot's question, Andrew suggested that the devaluation of the yen bears very careful attention ("it's very much worth paying attention to"), at least in part because a falling yen was one of the precursors of the Asian financial crisis in the late 90s.
    Apologies to all: at about this point, my 12-year-old discovered that I'd bought a "new" used car today and began celebrating. Part of the celebration involved snatching the phone upstairs from my study and attempting to dial friends.
    8. As long as the fund is growing, yield will look low and tax efficiency will look relatively high. I hadn't thought about it before: he might receive a dividend check in September when he had $12 million in the fund but when he pays it out in December, that check gets spread across a much larger group of shareholders (there was $28 million in the fund then) so each receives less.
    9. The fund instituted a second set of expense reductions, this one voluntary, that they hope to be able to make permanent but they'll have to wait until August to see what's economically possible.
    10. He will not invest in firms domiciled in any country where he and his staff cannot safely travel. They need to make face-to-face encounters with management teams, in part to discover the identities and agendas of the actual "control persons," but he won't put his folks' safety at risk for the sake of an investment lead.
    Bottom-line: the valuations on emerging equities look good if you've got a three-to-five year time horizon, fixed-income globally strikes him as stretched, he expects to remain fully invested, reasonably cautious and reasonably concentrated.
    I'm wondering what other folks heard, too.
    David
  • Beat the Market? Fat Chance
    Hi Guys,
    First and foremost, I want to thank each and every MFO member who visited my posting. The response was overwhelming and very satisfying to me since the goal of every single of my submittals is to educate, to inform our band of brothers.
    Secondly, and no less importantly, I particularly want to extend a thank you to those members who contributed excellent commentary. You prepared outstanding viewpoints that balanced the discussion. We all benefit from these divergent standpoints. No single person understands all the fascinating machinations and mechanisms of the marketplace. Your special perspectives are always welcomed and truly appreciated.
    It appears that my chosen title is somewhat controversial. Good. It was selected to capture the prospective audience’s attention, and by the readership count it performed exactly as designed. In addition, it closely and purposely mirrors the title of Peter Lynch’s famous book whose objective was to inspire individual investor participation, education, and potential profits.
    I partially concur with some contributors that specifically “Beating the Street” for that singular purpose is a shallow objective for most investors. It might satisfy some egos, but it will not necessarily enhance one’s retirement comfort. Please take note of my qualifier “necessarily”. I attach a deeper, embedded purpose to that common phrase. Let’s dive into the weeds now.
    I naturally anticipate that under normal circumstances a retiree with a several million dollar portfolio need not Beat the Street; he might not even need to beat inflation; his goal might just be wealth preservation. However, for most retirees a fair return in excess of inflation must be the target.
    Before constructing a portfolio, a target return is estimated based largely on projected annual withdrawal rate demands and expected timeframe. There are other factors too. During the construction of that portfolio, an asset allocation determination is made to satisfy that target goal with minimum risk. In many instances, risk is defined in terms of portfolio volatility.
    The commonsense logic is that only risk sufficient to meet the required portfolio drawdown rate is acceptable. I’m a total investment amateur, but a highly seasoned one; I have never earned a dime giving financial advice. But that’s how I developed my portfolio over two decades ago; I propose that some professional advisors that participate on this fine site do the same.
    A guiding principle that controls much thought in cobbling together a portfolio is broad product diversification, including international components. None of this is novel stuff. I do not invent these concepts: I do deploy them. Essential elements that go into that portfolio assembly are mutual fund statistical data sets like average annual return, return standard deviations, and correlation coefficients.
    The forecasted portfolio returns must be high enough to satisfy the clients projected drawdown schedule. If a client needs a 4 % drawdown rate above inflation, short term government bonds will simply not do the job. Historically these short term government bonds only generate about a 0.7 % annual reward above inflation rates. Therefore, to satisfy this hypothetical customers needs, more additional product risk (likely equities) must be introduced into his portfolio.
    How much of each asset class is required to resolve the allocation issue? That depends on the expected reward profiles of each investment class candidate. What are those levels? An excellent zeroth order point of departure is the historical returns (pick your own timeframe) registered in the past. These data are precisely the Index returns that represent the marketplace overall and for various subcomponents of it.
    So equaling or beating the Indices (Beating the Street) is a crucial part of both constructing and assessing (measuring) the current status of a portfolio. That portfolio was assembled with certain forward looking expectations; expectations that were basically grounded in Index returns. That portfolio is in trouble if those expectations are not realized. So Beating the Street is a measure, a benchmark of the health of a retirement portfolio.
    If a portfolio continuously fails to achieve street-like rewards, most advisors will eliminate the faltering elements and select replacements. If the advisor uses Morningstar as a data source, it is highly likely that the advisor will never select a one-star fund. Denials aside, most advisors base their initial selections on recent performance in general, and specifically contrasted against an Index reference standard.
    How do financial advisors gauge their success? One reasonable answer is to compare performance against a carefully constructed benchmark. Typically, the benchmarks are composed of Indices which are themselves a proxy for the marketplace. So “Beating the Street” is really just an alternate way of saying that the portfolio is doing its intended job.
    Since portfolios are built using Index returns as a likely returns pattern, a failure to achieve those forecasted returns implies dire consequences for the portfolio’s survival likelihood unless changes are implemented.
    Language has developed to facilitate communications. It is mostly successful, but since it has been around for so long, alternate meanings and interpretations sometimes interrupt or interfere with its goal. Such might be the case here. Language can be a tricky business.
    For me, “Beating the Street” is about equivalent to “Beating the Indices”. As a retiree, “Beating the Indices” means that my portfolio is keeping its head above water insofar as my planned withdrawal schedule is being preserved. It is an embedded performance measurement tool, not an ego adventure; it functions like a calibration device.
    It’s interesting to note that even Wall Street bankers did not use this simple measurement concept as late as the early 1960s. In Peter Bernstein’s superb book “Capital Ideas”, he relates a story from Bill Sharpe. When Sharpe lunched with these bankers, he questioned them about their performance relative to some relevant benchmarks. No banker could answer his question. In that period, these professional financers did not measure their performance against any reasonable standard. We have come a long way since those times.
    One final clarifying point is needed.
    For the record, when I use the term “guy”, I mean it as a gender neutral term. That’s the way it is used in our household; that’s the way it is in many households. Sorry if it offends some of you guys, but it makes writing much easier for me. In all ways, I respect women for their financial acumen. They run their households efficiently, and they invest wisely. I often reference studies that conclude that female investors outperform their male counterparts. That’s accomplished by trading less frequently. Good for them.
    Once again, thanks for your readership, and thanks for your informed contributions. I enjoy discussing these matters with you all.
    Best Wishes.
  • Beat the Market? Fat Chance
    To say the least the question is flawed. Without a clearer proposition and set of terms all participants agree to, this donkey can't fly. Perhaps the OP laid out the relevant terms and definitions in his lengthy expose' --- don't know. Doesn't matter unless everybody agrees to them.
    Since all will have different perspectives on relevant terms like: market, investor, investing, active and passive management and the correct time-frame for consideration, little can be accomplished to resolve such a poorly worded proposition. That's not to say the comments on both sides aren't valid. They are - as each approaches the arena (meaning "combat zone" and not necessarily "circus") from a different perspective.
    The proposition - or something like it has been promulgated for years - John Bogle being a major proponent. Over very long periods (measured in multi-decades) it holds truth to this extent. (1) Since all things tend to "average-out" over the very long term, (2) And all else being equal, (3) Than financial contracts (Isn't that what ownership of an asset really constitutes?) which exact the lowest cost from the participants to construct and execute will over time prove the more profitable to the participants. The key qualifier is of course: "All else being equal." As the many responses demonstrate - they seldom are.
  • Is Loss Aversion Causing Investors To Shun Equities ?
    Reply to @scott:
    1. You are amazing.
    2. What a truly sad situation if your comment is true (beyond obviously exploitative shops like Edward Jones):
    ...to some degree it's the desire of financial companies not to have the populace (as a whole) highly educated in terms of investing.