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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • new funds from firms that never launch new funds
    I think you got some of the key companies David. Andy is right about FMI.
    Here are a few more for you to consider, including some with high profile, like Ariel, Fairholme, First Eagle, Hussman, Jensen, Leuthold, LKCM, Osterweis, Third Avenue, Torray, Weitz...
    Acadian Asset Management LLC
    Advance Capital Management Inc
    ALPS Advisors, Inc.
    Ariel Investments, LLC
    Azzad Asset Management, Inc.
    Capstone Asset Management Company
    Century Capital Management, LLC
    Fairholme Capital Management LLC
    FCA_Corp
    First Eagle Investment Management, LLC
    Heartland Advisors, Inc.
    Hussman Strategic Advisors, Inc.
    Jensen Investment Management, Inc.
    Lee Financial Group Inc
    Leuthold Weeden Capital Management LLC.
    Luther King Capital Mgmt Corp
    Osterweis Capital Management Llc
    Pear Tree Advisors, Inc.
    Robeco Investment Management, Inc.
    Third Avenue Management LLC
    Thomas White International Ltd
    Torray LLC
    Wallace R. Weitz & Company
    Yorktown Management & Research Co Inc
    Here are the funds:
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    BTW1. I counted some 770 fund families managed by 1400 companies. Can you believe?
    BTW2. I left Artio off the list, but it too qualified I think.
    BTW3. A related theme perhaps is new funds by established companies that run counter to their tradition...PIMCO with equity funds, Matthews with a bond fund, come to mind.
  • The Long And Short Of It: Long/Short Funds Gain Traction
    Whitebox Long Short WBLFX was masterful through the financial crisis...
    image
    Here's ASTON/River Road Long-Short ARLSX more recently:
    image
    Got it?
  • Small and mid-cap fund recommendations
    Reply to @Hiyield007: Hello again Hiyield. I suspect that this reluctant bull still has some room to run. But please beware, HFMDX, WSBEX, and SMVLX each drew down 50% during the financial crisis:
    image
  • A Twisted Debate: Active vs. Passive Is Largely A Smokescreen
    Hi Guys,
    Like Old Joe, I found Morningstar’s Don Phillips article on the active-passive controversy interesting; it contained both elements of fairness and balance.
    But, but it was incomplete and shallow in its analyses of the debate.
    First, I think very highly of Don Phillips and the Morningstar organization that he helped create as one of its founding fathers. Both he and the Morningstar firm are knowledgeable, fair-minded, and trustworthy. I often exploit their resources.
    However, in the referenced article, Mr. Phillips’s work was unfinished in that it did not probe deep enough to really test some of the main components of the active-passive mutual fund debate. Here are a few of the shortcomings and issues that I discovered in the article.
    One overarching cautionary factor that must always be considered when assessing Morningstar research is that the outfit’s primary purpose is to uncover superior actively managed mutual funds and stocks. Their main raison d’etre (in addition to making a profit) is to identify superior fund holdings. So Morningstar has a financial incentive to highlight active fund management. I freely acknowledge that Morningstar does yeomen work to enforce this incentive.
    Phillips erects an easily destroyed false strawman to advance his goal. He says “Although the public perception that all active managers trail the market is false”. That’s a strawman target; we know better. I propose that almost all seasoned investors fully realize that some small fraction of actively managed funds will deliver superior results (positive Alpha) for extended periods. The problematic issue is to identify this rare group a priori. Morningstar evaluation methods have always struggled and often failed with this assignment.
    The Phillip’s study is based solely on category ranking, a mere ordering of funds within the cohort. This approach simply does not go far enough in the assessments. The returns distribution curve is asymmetric around the market return normal, and mere ranking does not capture that asymmetry.
    For example, in any given year, it is likely that about one-third of actively managed funds will generate excess returns relative its benchmark. These successful entries struggle to gain a few percentage points in superior performance. In general, the two-thirds underperforming funds generate sub-par results of a larger magnitude. Hence, when evaluating on actual investor rewards, active mutual fund management is an overall Loser’s game; the odds are not tilted to favor the individual investor.
    Phillips reinforces the John Bogle argument that costs not only matter, they matter greatly. Honest Index funds, not some active fund masquerading as an Index product, but having high turnover and high costs, enhance the odds for a successful portfolio. Rick Ferri’s recent book emphasizes that as the percentage of active funds in a portfolio increases, the likelihood of producing excess Alpha above an Index benchmark dramatically decreases. Here is a Link to a Morningstar interview conducted by Scott Burns with Ferri:
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/widget/VideoPlayer.aspx?vid=352437
    In a sense, the Phillips piece is an advertisement for low cost Vanguard products.
    Finally, examine the table that compares Vanguard Index rankings against Vanguard actively managed products. Except for the longest 15-year period, the rankings are nearly identical. Certainly the costs are not. The natural question is: “What is the individual investor getting for the incremental cost of active management?” The answer seems to be “nothing” except for the 15-year timeframe. That data point is such an outlier that I suggest it should be revisited searching for perhaps an error. It is either an error or an anomaly.
    So, I believe that the Phillips article was fair and balance, but it did not go far enough in its assessment. In the end, it is delivered returns that matter most, not just ranking within a category.
    Best Regards.
  • Fund Focus: Vanguard Wellington: (VWELX)
    Yes indeed, a world class fund that masterfully handled the 2008 financial crises and has been rewarded handsomely with $69B in AUM.
  • Artio Global Advisors to slink away, sell what's left to Aberdeen
    This is not surprising. I have never seen a company go from small-but-mighty to big-and-growing to fallen-on-hard-times to giving-up-the-ghost in such a relatively short time span. It wasn't that long ago that Artio International Equity Fund was as good as it gets. I will be curious to see if there is any kind of autopsy done after the closing that will provide real insight into what happened. Right now, I have some pretty good ideas, but they are just guesses. Pell and Younes were the wunderkinds of international fund managers for a number of years. Now they will not even remain with the new company. Of course, there is not much left to manage. No word on what will happen to Artio Total Return Bond Fund, which has continued to do well, despite loss of assets. Sareholders of Artio (ART) have seen share prices plummet in three years from $30 to $2.10 (yesterday). What a mess.
    This morning it was announced that Aberdeen Asset Management PLC ("Aberdeen"), a global asset management firm based in the UK, agreed to acquire Artio Global Investors Inc. ("Artio Global" or "Artio") for $2.75 in cash per share. While this e-mail is coming to most of you in the middle of the night, I wanted to be the first to inform you of the transaction and provide you with as much information as possible at this time.
    With the decline in our assets under management over the last couple of years, we felt that there would be significant benefit in partnering with an organization like Aberdeen, which has vast financial strength and a global footprint of analytical resources. We are confident today that this transaction is in your best interests.
    Aberdeen was formed in 1983 and as of December 31, 2012 had over $314 billion in assets under management. The firm has offices in 23 countries including the US where Aberdeen operates as a registered investment advisor.
    Like Artio, Aberdeen is focused on institutional and intermediary clients and has core competencies in international and global equity as well as fixed income. In addition, Aberdeen offers property and tailored solutions. They have an extensive network of 500 investment professionals located around the world.
    Given the similar investment-centric cultures both firms follow, Aberdeen believes that Artio's High Grade and High Yield strategies will complement its existing capabilities. At the closing of the transaction, it is anticipated that Aberdeen will add Artio's High Grade (Total Return Bond) and High Yield teams to its core fixed income capabilities. Both these fixed income groups will benefit from the increased resources Aberdeen offers. Richard Pell and Rudolph-Riad Younes will continue to manage our International and Global Equity strategies through the closing of the transaction at which point Aberdeen will take over management responsibilities, subject to client consent. After the transaction closes, it is currently expected that they will not transfer to Aberdeen.
    The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including US antitrust approval, the consent of a majority of Artio Global's shareholders and the consent of certain Artio Global mutual fund shareholders. The transaction is currently expected to close by the end of the second quarter or early in the third quarter of 2013.

  • The Magic Withdrawal Number In A Low-Interest-Rate Retirement, You'll Be Surprised: 2.8%
    Reply to @ron:
    Hi Ron,
    Indeed it is different strokes for different folks. But even admitting that each retiree must seek his own unique comfort zone, a few general policy rules are suitable for almost all retirees.
    I have done a zillion Monte Carlo simulations using a host of Monte Carlo codes including one that I developed for my own early application needs. Results do vary a little, but some general rules of engagement can be extracted from the myriad solutions.
    The most obvious generic finding is that time dominates all other considerations, both in the accumulation phase and in the projected distribution phase. Almost everyone recognizes this non-controversial factor.
    A very critical factor, especially during a portfolio’s drawdown phase, is returns volatility, its standard deviation. A few misguided MFO members insist that portfolio volatility is meaningless. That position is simply plain wrong.
    What is critical for portfolio survivability is compound return. A rigorous equation links compound return to both annual average return and its standard deviation. Given an annual return, a volatility increase works to reduce compound return. During its drawdown phase, high volatility operates to enhance portfolio failure (bankruptcy) rates.
    That’s why many financial advisors recommend a larger commitment to bond-like products within retirement; it operates to reduce overall portfolio standard deviation.
    The MRD issue is really a non-issue; it is mandated by law. Penalties if violated are just too damaging to accept. Besides it doesn’t usually impact a drawdown plan if that plan follows a 4 to 5 % withdrawal rate. The MRD schedule doesn’t demand that level of drawdown until about age 78 or 79. So MRD requirements usually don’t impact investment decisions until that advanced age.
    BobC is perfectly on-target when he generalizes that Monte Carlo retirement applications typically yield an allowable 4 to 5 % drawdown schedule during retirement. It was interesting that most of his clients adjusted cash flow needs downward during lean portfolio return years. His clients show considerable wisdom.
    Monte Carlo simulations can be used to demonstrate that wisdom. Portfolio survival rates are dramatically improved if some flexibility in portfolio drawdown rate is practiced as a matter of policy.
    For example, most Monte Carlo codes automatically increase withdrawals as a function of COLA changes. However, if a retiree is sufficiently disciplined and motivated, he can elect to sacrifice any inflation increase when his portfolio suffers a negative year. That simple tactic works wonders to enhance portfolio survival statistics. A host of other strategies can be implemented if the portfolio is exposed to a series of bad years.
    Certainly, portfolio survival becomes a critical issue when current and projected future market rewards approach the planned withdrawal rates. Major surgery is required given that dire forecast. You can identify the critical tipping points for your specific portfolio by doing “what-if” scenarios using the Monte Carlo tool.
    I wish you well in your retirement.
  • Jeremy Grantham On Investing In A Low-Growth World
    Grantham is taking one year CBO projection and using it as if it was the long term number. I have to call it as BS!
    Here are some more details of the latest CBO projections.
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/02/05/charts-10-years-in-the-u-s-economy-according-to-cbo/
    I think the Economy might grow slower going forward from 3% (real, i.e. after inflation) long term to 2% (real) and that might be higher than average for the developed world. Even China and other EM has cut their long term projections down.
    I would also like to challenge the premise that Boomer generation is in asset liquidation mode and equity markets is likely to go down from here. However, while the Boomer generation was bigger than GenX (mine), the size of GenY is much bigger. GenY is at the beginning of asset gathering (home, cars in addition to Financial assets) while Boomers are not liquidating all assets at once. So, my expectation is that it will balance out. Besides, GenY is likely to consume more and Boomers is still be consuming, in particular health related consumption is likely to go up. People that are working in health care (typically younger people) will in turn spend their income on other sectors. So, the withdrawal effect of Boomer generation is going to be much less than claimed to be.
    However, I agree with Grantham that stock market returns are not necessarily going to reflect the Economic growth. Grantham has given a number of reasons why fast growth did not always translate to high returns. One reason that was not managed is the stock dilution in those fast growing countries that companies in order to raise money to expand they offer more shares and even if the earnings are growing, on the EPS measure the earning growth is slow or declining. We have seen this in the last 4-5 years as EM has maintained much higher growth than developed world but stock returns were worse in many EM countries. The biggest is China.
    To close up, just like many others Grantham reports are interesting intellectual exercise but their research is not particularly helpful for their own funds.
  • The Magic Withdrawal Number In A Low-Interest-Rate Retirement, You'll Be Surprised: 2.8%
    Hi Guys,
    I submitted the following post to the MFO discussion group in late January recommending Monte Carlo simulations as a means to scoping the huge uncertainties with the retirement decision and an acceptable drawdown rate that generates a high likelihood of portfolio survival for the entire projected retirement period.
    I believe it is applicable to the current discussion so I repost it here:
    Retirement decisions are surely among the most difficult and stressful that anyone but everyone must eventually address. And the most successful retirements will be achieved the sooner that that issue is confronted; the earlier the better.
    Up until just 20 years ago, that vexing problem could only be insufficiently analyzed using deterministic methods that completely failed to capture the uncertainty of future portfolio returns and its volatility.
    Recently, these forecasting deficiencies could be mostly relaxed using Monte Carlo simulation calculators. I say relaxed because the uncertainties of the future marketplace can never be removed. However, Monte Carlo techniques can parametrically explore the impact of these uncertainties on portfolio survival likelihoods given various withdrawal rates. With super speed, these Monte Carlo simulations will estimate retirement wealth survival for whatever scenario the simulation user elects to study. Portfolio survival probabilities are the final output.
    These calculations are completed with lightening speed on numerous websites these days. Here are Links to two such sites:
    http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
    http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/
    The first Link is to the MoneyChimp site. It is simplicity itself and allows for both a pre-retirement portfolio estimated return and volatility and a post-retirement projected return and volatility. It is extremely fast as it performs 1000 random simulations. Since the controlling returns are randomly selected within the machine, identically repeating the same calculation will generate a slightly different probability outcome.
    The second Link is to the Flexible Retirement Planner site. It is slightly more complex than the MoneyChimp site, but it is also more detailed in its analyses. For example, it divides your portfolio into taxable, deferred tax, and tax free components. Also it permits several spending options during the drawdown phase of the retirement.
    Both sites provide excellent Monte Carlo simulators. I recommend you try both of them. Do numerous “what if” scenarios to test the survivability robustness of your approaching retirement.
    I am certain that these Monte Carlo analyses will better inform your savings, your retirement date, and your portfolio withdrawal rate decisions.
    I resorted to Monte Carlo computations when making my retirement decisions, and believe they emboldened me and gave me some needed comfort. By way of full disclosure, I did not use the two simulators that I referenced; they were not available at my critical moment.
    When dealing with uncertainty and not deterministic events, Monte Carlo methods are the proper tools to apply.
    Good luck and Best Wishes.
    Many other Monte Carlo simulation sites are also available on the Internet
    I like and occasionally still use the Financial Engines product developed by Noble Laureate Bill Sharpe. It is mathematically a rigorous and superior Monte Carlo tool. Bill Sharpe has dedicated his work to improve the lot of us small independent investors.
    One issue that I currently have with Financial Engines is that I access it through my Vanguard affiliation so when it recommends some portfolio modifications, that sponsored site tends to follow the Vanguard tradition of fewer holdings and Index-like elements. The financial linkage with Vanguard provides a potential incentive for biased recommendations and makes their proposed changes somewhat suspect. That’s just me speculating aloud without any substantial evidence of any bias.
    You can gain access to the Financial Engines website by visiting Terry Savage at the following address:
    http://terrysavage.com/
    By clicking on the Financial Engines box you can get a free one year subscription to that planning tool.
    These Monte Carlo tools surely do not remove the uncertainty of future market returns, but at least you enter the arena better armed to deal with those uncertainties. What realistic returns you guesstimate from the marketplace will forever be a potent driver to any decision.
    I hope this helps.
  • Aberdeen Emerging Markets Fund closing to new investors.
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413594/000110465913008659/a13-3126_4497.htm
    497 1 a13-3126_4497.htm 497
    ABERDEEN FUNDS
    Aberdeen Emerging Markets Fund
    (formerly, Aberdeen Emerging Markets Institutional Fund)
    Supplement to the Aberdeen Funds Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 27, 2012, as supplemented to date.
    The Board of Trustees of Aberdeen Funds (the "Board"), on behalf of its series, Aberdeen Emerging Markets Fund (formerly, Aberdeen Emerging Markets Institutional Fund) (the "Fund"), recently approved a proposal to limit inflows to the Fund in order to protect the integrity of the investment process that is used to manage the Fund. Accordingly, effective February 22, 2013 (the "Closing Date"), the Fund will no longer accept purchase orders from new investors or exchanges from other Aberdeen Funds into the Fund by new investors. However, the categories of persons described below will continue to be able to invest in the Fund:
    • Existing shareholders, as of the Closing Date, will be permitted to make new investments into the Fund directly.
    • Existing shareholders, as of the Closing Date, will be permitted to continue to purchase Fund shares through the Automatic Asset Accumulation Plan and through dividend and capital gain reinvestments.
    • Existing shareholders, as of the Closing Date, will be permitted to transfer assets from one existing account to another account within the Fund, regardless of whether such account is under a different registration or holds shares of the Fund as of the Closing Date. Such shareholders will be permitted to make new investments into such account.
    • Existing shareholders, as of the Closing Date, will be permitted to exchange shares within an existing account from one share class to another share class of the Fund, subject to any investment minimum or eligibility requirements detailed in the Fund's prospectus. Such shareholders will be permitted to make new investments into such account.
    • 401(k) plans, other qualified employee benefit plans, and firm-wide model-based investment programs, each with existing accounts in the Fund as of the Closing Date, will be permitted to purchase additional shares in the Fund.
    • Financial intermediaries trading in an omnibus structure that currently have accounts in the Fund or that convert fully disclosed accounts to an omnibus structure will be permitted to purchase additional shares in the Fund on behalf of existing or new clients or customers.
    Existing shareholders, as of the Closing Date, who later sell all of their shares of the Fund will not be permitted to establish new accounts or reinvest in the Fund. In addition, the Fund reserves the right to accept purchases from institutions that have notified the Fund's adviser or distributor of their intent to invest in the Fund prior to the Closing Date, regardless of whether such institutions hold shares of the Fund as of the Closing Date. The Fund's Board, and officers and employees of the Fund's adviser and its affiliates, will not be permitted to purchase additional shares in the Fund after the Closing Date unless such investment is through a permitted channel (i.e., 401(k) plan). The Fund reserves the right to accept purchases from the Aberdeen Multi-Asset Allocation Funds, regardless of whether such funds hold shares of the Fund as of the Closing Date. The Fund reserves the right to accept investments transferred from other Aberdeen emerging markets vehicles at its discretion.
    The Fund will continue to limit inflows to the Fund until otherwise notified.
    Effective upon the Closing Date, the prospectus of the Fund is supplemented by modifying all references to the ability to purchase shares of the Fund as set forth in this Supplement.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
    THIS SUPPLEMENT IS DATED FEBRUARY 8, 2013.
  • Jeff Auxier
    "The power of compounding is so phenomenal that a long-term investor should strive to avoid losses that interrupt the process. We did not believe the Federal Reserve would instigate an $85 billion a month bond buying campaign, dubbed “unlimited QE,” that’s focused on the unemployment level. Allocating roughly a trillion dollars at today’s record-high bond prices makes no sense. Excessive borrowing to buy wildly overpriced assets are common causes of capital destruction. Misallocation based on extremely easy credit has contributed materially to the two major market declines in the past 12 years. This past year the mindless rush for yield drove investors into the danger zone once again. “Stretching for yield” without understanding the source or true risk for yield contributed to the financial crisis in 2008. This year, across the globe, total central bank stimulus could exceed $8 trillion. This is unprecedented, can’t be ignored, and provides a powerful but artificial tailwind for equities."
    Exactly. Very impressive performance and compelling fund, as well.
  • Jeff Auxier
    Mr. Auxier runs Auxier Focus Investor AUXFX.
    Link to his latest quarterly report:
    http://auxierasset.com/2012/12/31/auxier-report-year-end-2012/
    Since 1999, this guy knows how to control risk and still beat the market:
    image
    Down side and draw down deviations 7.4% and 8.6%, respectively, through end of last year.
    He also initiated an institutional share class last year with a bit better ER of 1.1 for $250K min versus 1.25 for investor class. Auxier AUM is currently $270M, up from $147M when David first profiled AUXFX a couple years back, now archived.
    From Mr. Auxier's latest commentary:
    The power of compounding is so phenomenal that a long-term investor should strive to avoid losses that interrupt the process. We did not believe the Federal Reserve would instigate an $85 billion a month bond buying campaign, dubbed “unlimited QE,” that’s focused on the unemployment level. Allocating roughly a trillion dollars at today’s record-high bond prices makes no sense. Excessive borrowing to buy wildly overpriced assets are common causes of capital destruction. Misallocation based on extremely easy credit has contributed materially to the two major market declines in the past 12 years. This past year the mindless rush for yield drove investors into the danger zone once again. “Stretching for yield” without understanding the source or true risk for yield contributed to the financial crisis in 2008. This year, across the globe, total central bank stimulus could exceed $8 trillion. This is unprecedented, can’t be ignored, and provides a powerful but artificial tailwind for equities.
    Prospective investors in the Fund often ask why we steadfastly avoid such high-profile tech stocks as Apple and Facebook that dominate coverage on CNBC and other financial media. Our answer is that we prefer to own comparatively mundane businesses like Unilever and Tesco PLC that actually have benefited from technology’s inexorable march toward lower unit prices and profit margins.
    And from David's original profile:
    Management’s Stake in the Fund: rather more than $2,000,000. Mr. Auxier reports investing his entire personal retirement into the fund and has committed to never selling a single share while he still manages the fund. The company reports that “everymember of the Auxier team has significant percentages of their personal net worth invested in the Auxier Focus Fund.”
  • The Rise And Fall Of Load Funds
    Reply to @David_Snowball:
    The "quirk" is likely due to the marketing channels used, not M*'s creativity. If one looks at the prospectus of an Active Port (R) fund (there are five on the list of 25), one sees they are no load, but:
    Class A shares of the Active Portfolio Funds are offered only to certain eligible investors through certain wrap fee programs sponsored and/or managed by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. or its affiliates.
    No different from "real" load funds that waive loads when sold through wrap accounts - there's no need to impose a fictitious load here, since the sole way it is sold is "load-waived".
    Same as with BYMIX - also listed as a no-load fund, and also for the same reason. Its prospectus reads:
    In general, the fund's shares are offered only to current or former Wealth Management clients of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and to certain investment advisory firms, individuals and entities that receive a transfer of fund shares from a Wealth Management client, brokerage clients of BNY Mellon Wealth Advisors or BNY Mellon Wealth Management Direct, and certain employee benefit plans.
    It doesn't matter what you call these funds. Whether you call them "no load", "front end load", "level load", they are taking investors' money like C shares. You can pay the fund company an extra 1%/year (most of which the distributor turns around any pays to the broker), or you can pay your broker an extra 1%/year wrap fee to get the front end load waived. It's just a packaging change - and it's a change that largely happened many years ago.
  • U.S. and States Prepare to Sue S.&P. Over Mortgage Ratings... "Fraud!! Who, US???"
    Egan Jones was barred for 18mo from issuing some govt-related ratings (http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/22/egan-jones-barred-for-18-months-on-some-ratings/.) No surprise, given that they downgraded the US (as did S & P.)
    Not saying that S & P is without fault by any means, but the timing this far afterwards is rather interesting, as is the fact that pretty much everyone involved in the financial crisis and incidents afterwards (um, where's Jon Corzine?) have gotten a slap on the wrist, but suddenly the two rating agencies that downgraded the US are in the spotlight.
  • U.S. and States Prepare to Sue S.&P. Over Mortgage Ratings... "Fraud!! Who, US???"
    The Justice Department, along with state prosecutors, plans to file civil charges against Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service, accusing the firm of fraudulently rating mortgage bonds that led to the financial crisis, people briefed on the plan said Monday.
    dealbook.nytimes
  • Elevator Talk #1: Tom Kerr, Rocky Peak Small Cap Value (RPCSX)
    Anyone who can frequently time these sorts of situations in this kind of market (and speaking of this kind of market, apparently even Al Gore was chatting about the negatives of people having such a short-term mentality on investing on Charlie Rose the other day, I didn't see it) deserves credit. It's difficult to have a long-term mentality in a time period that's exceptionally short-term in its thinking.
    As I noted a while back, the average holding period in the '60's or so was around 7 years. The average holding period now is literally around 5 days (http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-investor-holding-period-2012-8).
    Beyond that, stocks are yanked around by constant news and noise from an increasing amount of sources, including a couple of Twitter hoaxes that had a significant effect recently on a couple of stocks (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/us-sarepta-idUSBRE90T1CF20130130) - one dropped 25% after someone posted faking being famed short seller Muddy Waters. I mean, we live in a time period where someone can tweet pretending to be someone else and just wreck a stock.
    The nice thing about this new MFO feature is that I would think it's pretty easy for funds to do and it provides both value to readers and the funds - especially a way for smaller funds to get exposure.
    "We are candid about our mistakes as well as our successes and speak in plain language instead of confusing financial jargon."
    The candid nature is refreshing. I really like this feature quite a bit, and the fund sounds interesting - looking at the top 25 names, it's certainly a unique and interesting mix of names (although I'd be curious about the reasoning behind being long Gamestop.)
    Additionally, Charles again with the terrific work/graphs/research.
    Edited to add:
    As for HLF: Monday, February 4, 8:02 AM Herbalife (HLF) -13.8% premarket, as the NYPost reports the company is now under official investigation. Releasing 192 complaints filed against Herbalife over the past 7 years, the FTC redacted some sections, saying it didn't have to divulge information obtained through a law enforcement investigation. Comment! [On the Move]
    (although that could reverse tomorrow or in an hour. Who knows.)
    Lastly, an interesting discussion of an Australian hedge fund manager's experience with Herbalife and thoughts on Ackman (http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2013/01/notes-on-visiting-herbalife-nutrition.html). His blog (at the link) is also an interesting read in general.
  • Elevator Talk #1: Tom Kerr, Rocky Peak Small Cap Value (RPCSX)

    I like the "Elevator Talk" addition David.
    A peek at Rocky Peak's recent holdings shows Radio Shack RSH, which Scott and I have been posting about lately - it has rebounded an extraordinary 50% YTD:
    image
    So, of course, I had to look a little further into RPCSX.
    The small cap fund category has several notables - many favorites on MFO, like ARIVX, RYSEX, PVFIX, MSCFX, ARTVX, HUSIX. So, a tough group to get noticed in, especially given the modest returns RPCSX has delivered out of the gate since inception last April...but it has had its moments.
    Morningstar shows 578 US small caps, or about 6.5% of all funds, oldest share class only, as of Dec 2012. Their caps average from $50M to $3B. (There are 43 so-called micro caps included with average caps under $500M.) Here's further break-out of small cap demographic:
    image
    RPCSX holds 42 equities, as of Sept 2012, fairly evenly distributed across its portfolio at 1.5-3% each, with average market capitalization of $1.1B.
    Another of its holdings, Duff & Phelps Financial DUF, announced a going private transaction on the last trading day of the year - the stock jumped 20% :
    image

    Before that, Mr. Kerr reported that another holding, CoreLogic (CLGX), a So Cal provider of real estate data, rose 44.9% in the third quarter. He sold the position after achieving a 62.3% gain from purchase, explaining the rapid price appreciation "exceeded our conservative calculation of intrinsic value..."
    More recently, he's added Herbalife, which Dan Loeb's Third Point hedge fund also bought 9 million shares, or 8% of the company. (Loeb's long position runs counter to the massive short put on by Bill Ackman's Pershing Square.)
    On its website, Mr. Kerr provides monthly updates and commentary, along with descriptions of how he invests and his guiding principles for RPCSX. Here are some takeaways:

    Rocky Peak Capital Management strives to optimize long-term returns with a focus on mitigating risk.
    Downside risk is often considered one of the most crucial elements of stock selection. You win in both investing and sports by avoiding frequent and big mistakes.
    Most of our research is done internally, free of Wall Street biases and short-term focus.
    To quote legendary investor Sir John Templeton, "To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude yet pays the greatest reward."
    We will not chase the popular or fashionable investing trend of the day.
    A long-term time horizon...a minimum of two to three years is required to recognize the performance benefits of this style of investing.
    We are candid about our mistakes as well as our successes and speak in plain language instead of confusing financial jargon.

    Since inception last year, RPCSX has out-performed some seriously good and high lifetime performing funds, like gold-star Perkins Small Cap Value JSIVX, FMI Focus FMIOX, Conestoga Small Cap CCASX, Royce Micro-Cap Invmt RYOTX, Turner Emerging Growth Investor TMCGX, and gold-star Artisan Small Cap Value Investor ARTVX:
    image
    But it well under-performed others, depicted below, like Walthausen Small Cap Value WSCVX, Mairs & Power Small Cap MSCFX (on fire Max), Huber Capital Small Cap Value Inv HUSIX, TETON Westwood Mighty Mites AAA WEMMX, Pinnacle Value PVFIX. (It has just about broken even with its small value benchmark.)
    image
    As Mr. Kerr states, eight-nine months is hardly enough life to make a performance assessment of RPCSX. But in that time, the fund upheld its promise to minimize down side and draw down risk. The fund he previously co-managed, now called Core Street Capital (CSC) Small Cap Value Investor CSCSX, produced high life-time risk adjust returns returns based on Sharpe (in top 20% of more than 100 small caps between 12 and 15 years old), but with fairly high down-side volatility. By the numbers, since Oct 1998: 10.5% APR, but 13.4% DSDEV and (gulp) 18.8% Ulcer Index, which resulted in 47% draw down in 2008. For me at least, I hope Mr. Kerr does indeed correct "mistakes that my former colleagues and I made such as not making general or tactical stock market calls, or not holding overvalued stocks just because they are perceived to be great quality companies."
    If RPCSX does manage to keep its down side in check going forward, here are some of the lower volatility, no-load small cap funds (with attendant performance and risk) that I believe Rocky Peak will ultimately be compared against, oldest to youngest:
    image
    In any case, for now at least, I am adding Rocky Peak RPCSX to the notable list.

  • Passive Portfolios Work
    Hi Guys,
    I thank you all for your participation in this exchange. The demonstrated interest in the posting far exceeded my expectations.
    Although I have taken a position that simple Index investing delivers persistently superior returns when contrasted against active portfolio management, I have consistently acknowledged that the active versus passive management controversy is still an unsettled debate. Much depends on goals, timeframes, risk adversity, and current economic and political realities. There is plenty of room for a diversity of opinions.
    I make no claims to any prescient forecasting skills, nor any special investing talents. You should all execute an investment policy that permits you to sleep comfortably every night. I do. But I do have preferences based on 50 years of practical investing experience and considerable financial/economic/investment/mathematics studies.
    Based on this multi-discipline effort, I have mostly concluded that Index investing delivers portfolio return outcomes that generally exceed those that would be generated by an active approach. Note that I used the “mostly and generally” qualifiers to my statement. There are no 100 % guarantees in the uncertain investment universe.
    I immediately concede that a passive portfolio will never top an annual ranking of all portfolio options in any given year. But it will likely be in the top one-third. Extending the time horizon beyond an annual rating, that passive portfolio will tend to climb the ranking ladder because it is consistently and persistently in the top one-third returns grouping each and every year. Active management will have better individual years, but will also generate sub-optimum results a few times that it will do harm to a long-term performance record.
    Given all this, I still own a mixed active-passive portfolio. I embrace the challenge of selecting superior fund management talent. This is not an easy task.
    One of my more recent fund management heroes is the former Yale endowment fund guru David Swensen. For years, his investment prowess produced double digit returns for Yale
    I also liked his willingness to change his viewpoint while writing his popular book :Unconventional Success”. Initially he drafted the book to recommend his complex investment philosophy, realized that individual investors could not be reasonably expected to execute that complex strategy, and restructured the book to finally endorse a passive Index fund investment program. More power to a guy who is willing to alter a position because of practical considerations.
    In my earlier submittals, I briefly mentioned that even university institutional endowment powerhouses like Yale, who employed the best-money-could-buy investment experts and wisdom, were recognizing the difficulties of persistently outperforming the overall marketplace. Many of these institutions are now committing a larger fraction of their wealth to Index products.
    One reason for that defection is surely the paucity of exceptionally skilful fund managers. Another is the cost for these managers and the research needed to identify excess returns opportunities. I believe that the recent dismal performance of these university endowment projects has boosted the defection rate. There are several recent references that carefully document the disappearing excess returns for this institutional class of investors. Here is a Link to one of them:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/business/colleges-and-universities-invest-in-unconventional-ways.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
    Click on the NY Times graphic to see that a simple Index portfolio outperformed the endowment average returns over the last three years and equaled the largest endowment group for the last five year period.
    Here is a Link to an article that reports on a former university endowment manager’s attempt to replicate the endowment investment style in a mutual fund structure:
    http://www.thebamalliance.com/BAMNewsMakers/BAMNewsMakersArticles/tabid/100/entryid/101/more-bad-news-for-college-en
    The project is performing poorly. Some things are not easily transferable. I particularly like the closing summary in the brief referenced article, so I close with it.
    “The implication is striking: If Yale, with all of its resources, cannot identify the future alpha generators, what are the odds that any individual money manager, investment advisor or other endowment can do so? This is why I believe that active management is the triumph of hype, hope and marketing over wisdom and experience."
    The devastating conclusion of this closing paragraph, that was directed at the investment world’s big players, is easily extrapolated onto the investment opportunities map of individual investors.
    Regardless, I wish us all successful investing as we pursue our own separate pathways.
    Best Wishes.
  • Passive Portfolios Work
    Dear MJG,
    You said, "In the financial world, if you don’t trust and deploy statistical analysis, you are doomed to fail."
    Can you prove this?
    Or maybe your definition of statistical analysis is so broad that you assume that nobody
    will dare question your statement.
  • Time to dip one's toe into the hole (PM Miners)?
    The Power of Gold
    Great book, a nuanced narrative probably grating to hardcore bugs.
    Between the American Civil War and World War I, gold became the near-universal standard, ''a symbol of sound practice and a badge of honor and decency,'' said Joseph Schumpeter, the great economist. The era was known for prosperity and financial stability. But Mr. Bernstein sides with Benjamin Disraeli, who said in 1895, ''Our gold standard is not the cause but the consequence of our prosperity.''
    http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/22/business/book-value-it-certainly-glitters-but-what-is-it-worth.html
    Iow it was Disraeli's view that the Golden Age of the gold standard wasn't what allowed for an extended period of relative peace and prosperity, lessening the cheating,
    currency wars, that spiral into conflicts but rather it was the extended period that allowed for the continuance of a gold standard.
    10% in PMs mostly FSAGX VGPMX, added some this week.
    Gross--
    The countdown begins when investable assets pose too much risk for too little return; when lenders desert credit markets for other alternatives such as cash or real assets.
    REPEAT: THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS WHEN INVESTABLE ASSETS
    POSE TOO MUCH RISK FOR TOO LITTLE RETURN.
    Visible first signs for creditors would logically be 1) long-term bond yields too low relative to duration risk, 2) credit spreads too tight relative to default risk and 3) PE ratios too high relative to growth risks. Not immediately, but over time, credit is exchanged figuratively or sometimes literally for cash in a mattress or conversely for real assets (gold, diamonds) in a vault.
    http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Credit-Supernova.aspx#.UQp3KOIdHWo.twitter