Hi
@hankI looked again at what I wrote, and the expression of my language is pretty crappy.
I was picking on the folks who seem to think they are able to see the future so far away. The big kids have had too many forecast misses for interest rates since the 2008 melt; at least based upon their salary and access to data.
My IG bond thoughts are more directed to gov't. issue, vs corp.
Quandary:
a state of perplexity or uncertainty over what to do in a difficult situation.
The quandary being: Fed. taper.........well, if the Treasury stills needs to sell bills, notes and bonds to run the house of America; who will buy these if the Fed. tapers too much and doesn't want more Treasury paper?
Lots of folks still need and want U.S. debt.
The question becomes, as usual, supply and demand.
'Course the potential problem today is that rates beyond the control of the Treasury or the Fed. are already low and less swing room than in
years past.
I still feel the big kids still don't really know what direction for yields, cause we're still in the "this time is different mode"; and more warped from Covid and all of the affects.
To a point, if there remains enough buyers; yields will go down; and the prices will increase, which is where the money is made.
This write likely didn't help one bit to express much of anything.
I'm attempting to have a decent thought path too late at night for me today.
Remain curious,
Catch