You know, I was actually going to bump this thread as well, yesterday.
You have a situation where technology is advancing rapidly, especially in terms of consumer technology - not only in terms of the technology itself, but how some technology is effecting consumer behavior in regards to other technology.
People are taking pictures on their phones and not printing them out as much - less printers sold, less ink sold, etc. I, quite frankly, am rather stunned by some of the cameras that are included with phones. They aren't going to replace SLRs or anything, but they are not bad. They used to be an afterthought, now they are - in many instances - pretty nice, considering the limitations of the size, lens, etc. Why would someone buy a basic camera (from Sony, Canon, etc)? As someone who enjoys photography and needs something more than a camera phone (although I actually think my camera phone is not bad), I am curious what a much smaller, probably more specialized digital camera market looks like in 5-10 years, and who serves the market.
The desktop computer is going away faster than I'd expected.
So mobile has had, I think, a ripple effect. Look at Best Buy. I don't understand how Gamestop will evolve to be able to continue around in 5 years. I've talked in other threads about other aspects of retail that will be challenged by mobile and things like price comparison apps (which are likely terrific for the company that owns them and harvests an s-load of information about what is being scanned - they are not terrific for companies like Best Buy, effectively turning them into showrooms.) It doesn't have to be just Best Buy, either - someone could try on a pair of shoes, scan the box and see that an online store has them for less and buy from the online store on the spot.
I can see where some of these apps would evolve and you start getting competition. Even if it's not online competition, you're in a shoe store, another shoe store a mile away sends an offer for a few bucks off if you go there instead.
I'm really surprised that more companies have not used geo-fencing in order to send messages to consumers that are nearby their stores. "Geofencing: Can Texting Save Stores?" :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303978104577362403804858504.htmlAdvances in payment/POS (point of sale) technology have resulted in even artists at fairs being able to take credit cards via Square or other POS companies. The issue with mobile payments is that you have fifty different companies trying to get in on it and it's just going to cause confusion. Financial technology and changes in financial technology (EMV chip credit cards and required upgrades for US retailers over the next couple of years by Visa and others to be able to accept new forms of payment) is going to lead to some companies doing well - I mean, look at V and MC, who are both making a giant play for the global "unbanked" with mobile payments and other new financial technology. The changes in financial technology over the next five years are - I think - going to be big and make me wonder if there's not more to go for V or MC, but there's also a number of other companies that stand to benefit. Again, watch Visa's "Currency of Progress" ads and all the discussion of "financial inclusion" to people around the world who don't have access to the financial system (the "unbanked" - millions and millions of people who don't have a bank account, but have a phone) and you see what they're going for.
The real stunner for me is the video game industry, which has done horrendously in the last year or so, as while a 99c mobile game isn't going to offer the same scope as a $49.99 physical video game, people are responding to the 99c value proposition - if they dont like it, it's a lot easier than if someone dropped $50 on a game they didn't like - as a result of that, look at the video game stocks, especially something like gaming giant Electronic Arts or, well, most of the video game companies.
You have a host of companies that seem to have been unable to make the move as things changed to mobile, and as a result, things like HP and Sony have been clobbered. I'll also note that I do not know how Microsoft continues on not really doing any one thing all that well for that long without starting to have faith erode.
HP's Whitman in September: "We have to offer a smartphone." (Uh, oh gee, really, Meg?)
HP's Whitman yesterday (um, less than a month later): "No HP Smartphone next year." (Huh. Er, well, what else is in store? Nothing good? Ok.)
Sequoia and Buffett have, at times, I believe talked to some degree about not investing in technology because of how things quickly evolve/move to the next big thing. This time period is a tremendous example of that. You have managers who believed that HP was a value, but it's not - it's (and I said this months ago on another thread about D & C and Nokia) unfortunately one of a number of companies (and there's a lot of them!) that seem to have been caught by surprise by the move to mobile or the extent of it. Or, they just became too difficult to steer/be nimble - read the Issacson biography of Steve Jobs in regards to Sony and it feels like that may have continued to be the case with Sony.
The key problem is a big one: it's not as if companies like HP have years to casually play catch up.
What's working now is Apple, Google, cloud stuff, data centers and there's a company on the French market that I find fascinating that I've talked about before called Gemalto. Even Ebay, with purchases of smaller, start-up style companies, has shown an ability to at least try to move and adapt. Naspers is an EM example (and a rather interesting conglomerate with considerable exposure to e-commerce), and was, surprisingly, less effected by Facebook cratering than I'd thought.
There's a lot of companies that are working in technology, but I think there's a lot of companies that are suddenly dinosaurs, which few likely could have imagined 5+ years ago. I was a skeptic on mobile (largely because of social networking, which I still think is largely inane), but I think aspects other than social networking are quite interesting and I think it's clearly having wide-ranging implications on many aspects of business and consumer behavior today.
Additionally, I think mobile continues to evolve and - among other things - may be more and more how people (literally) shop.
http://www.geek.com/articles/geek-cetera/worlds-first-nfc-supermarket-to-open-in-paris-20120916/
