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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • DoubleLine Yield Opportunities Fund
    I owned one of the DL OE funds, years ago. It lost its mojo, so I got out. This is an ETF? A CEF? It just simply seems to fly in the face of what I want from my bond funds. So, not only do you have to pay attention to the share price, but there is NAV to consider, too. And I would not want to be waiting around to see IF a quarterly dividend were declared. I like those coming in, routinely, without even having to think about it--- the way dividends get paid-out with an OEF. And I prefer monthly pay-outs, simply because the budget I must keep is a monthly task, not a quarterly project. :)
  • A Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency thread & Experiment
    Bill Miller - Founder, Miller Value Funds
    “Some of the great investors of our time, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, are gold bulls. Many people, if they're not gold bulls, they at least believe that it's possible inflation comes back with the Fed gunning the money supply here, and with more fiscal stimulus. I think it's reasonable to own gold.
    With respect to bitcoin...it's been a great month for bitcoin, but it's also been a great year, year to date, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, and then inception, bitcoin's inception was 12 years ago, and it's been the single best performing asset category in every one of those periods. Not that it hasn't had a bad time, it went from nearly $20,000 down to the $3000-$4000 range, so it's been very volatile. But I think right now it's staying power gets better every day. I think the risks of bitcoin going to zero are much much lower than they've ever been before. And you're getting greater adoption. I mean, you know, MicroStrategy put half their cash, $400mm into bitcoin. Paypal announced that people can buy bitcoin. Square had blow out numbers yesterday due to their sales and demand for bitcoin. And the bitcoin story is very easy, which is that its supply demand it's it's economics, not 101, point 01, which is that bitcoin's supply is growing at about 2.5% per year, and the demand is growing faster than that. And there's gonna be a fixed number of them. So I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is gonna eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what's like it.”
    6 Nov 2020
  • Most TIPS now have negative yields
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
    Good article in this weeks Barrons. Key take-away is that even with the inflation adjustment, most investors today are likely to lose money owning TIPS. Linked chart begins at 5 years. But apparently even shorter TIPS obligations (1-3 years) carry negative yields.
    Anybody ever had their negative interest rate subtracted from a TIPS fund at the end of a month, quarter, year? Seems like that could happen ... I don’t pretend to understand them very well. Am dabbling a bit in TLDTX as a cash proxy and it’s slightly ahead YTD.
    *From linked page
    “Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates. These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily real yield curve. These real market yields are calculated from composites of secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ...”
  • How much dry powder to hold in reserve ?
    @hank,
    thanks for asking, appreciate the question as it makes me think...
    I've always had the philosophy that one can hold opposing views concurrently. There is no law stating that you cannot, who says you have to pick a lane. I am inherently conservative, my parents were in Europe during WWII, saw first hand how your life can change on a dime and my Mom never liked the stock market, only CDs and MM's. My Dad was into Growth stocks, so I saw the balance of opposite views in my yute. I believe that most folks manage their monies similar to their parents as well as their eating habits etc.
    I myself was an extremely aggressive investor in my early 20's going into my mid 30s then saw the baloney that starting taking place in 03, 04' etc with the housing market and the "this is contained within the real estate market"..I knew with that quote to head for the hills. Had a very minimal drawdown in my portfolio then. Haven't really trusted the markets since and really don't trust it now.
    So the point of those stories is that I know I've been way too conservative but on the other hand so far I've generally kept my drawdowns to minimus and have slept fairly well at night. There are no gurantee's in life and anything can happen at any time. My whole philosophy is to limit drawdowns to a what is my own personal level which is mid single digits.
    There is a part of me who thinks the markets are an absolute joke and you would be a fool to have a majority of your life savings in them and then the other side who thinks well if the CBs (central banks) are building up their BS'(balance sheets) you'd be a fool not to play along with the subsequent asset inflation.
    I do hold a combo of mutual funds as well as a few individual stocks (HD, AWK, MSFT, ACN, TFX...) that I believe strongly in. Again, that is likely a things I picked up from my Dad who did that, he bought WMT stock years ago, yes, it has done well in the past 35 years and my Mom still owns it but had most of his monies in Fid Magellan, Selected American Shares, Growth mutual funds.
    On the same hand I do own mutual funds, more $ than monies in indvid stonks.
    PMEFX, ARTTX are some of them and lately been getting into FEVAX, no load, First Eagle US Value, likely going to get out of FPFIX, recent posting here made me recognize that I don't want to hold some of the underlying holdings of that fund.
    Like most others here state, it kinda works for me, I don't recommend this to anyone else and I am just posting for entertainment value.
    Good Luck and Good health to you Hank and all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    Rates have pretty much been falling for fifteen years.
    Show me the funds making money during rising rates.
  • Russian government bonds in your bond funds
    I sold TGTRX and its siblings 7 or 8 years ago after I found a 4% allocation to Ukrainian bonds !
  • Bond funds with the best 15-year returns
    It's just another lazy piece by someone with column inches to fill.
    Do a M* screen for taxable bond funds, AUM >= $100 (million), and 15 year returns >= 7.17% and you get a similar top 20 list. The results aren't identical because the screen is being run a week later, but the results are similar. All 20 funds I find have 15 year performances well above 7%; the ones in the column in the aggregate merely average above 7%.
    Most of the funds are indeed HY funds. That's to be expected. A diversified portfolio of HY bonds should have better raw performance than IG portfolios over the long term since risk is theoretically rewarded in the marketplace.
    There's another class of funds that one would expect to have performed well anytime in the past 40 years as interest rates declined: long term and/or zero coupon funds. Not only is this not helpful, these funds are likely to be some of the worst performing funds going forward as interest rates rise.
    In the article's list are two IG funds with extended durations:WHOSX (hard to get higher grade than Treasuries) and VWETX. Also in the list is American Century's last remaining target date zero coupon bond fund, BTTRX. For most of its life it had a very long duration, due in part to its target date and in part due to holding all zeros.
    Other long term IG funds that my top 20 screen turned up include: DEEIX (at 8.55%/year, the best 15 year performance), VBLLX (an index fund despite the article saying all top performing funds were actively managed), and CLDAX.
    There's even an EM fund, GMCDX / GMDFX , that outperformed some of the article's funds over the past 15 years.
    When all is said and done, the article and my addendums are just mindless and relatively useless screens.
  • Russian government bonds in your bond funds
    Unfortunately the Fed is to blame to create the low yield environment. That makes life hard for income investors. Often this lead them to incur more risk than they realize in order to have higher yield : junk bonds, emerging market debts, and EM local currency debts.
    Sovereign risk is something to watch for when investing in developing countries. Political conflicts and wars are bad for investors. I invest a small % in PELAX just before 2008 and it took several years to fully recover the loss.
  • Russian government bonds in your bond funds
    @Sven. Thank you for doing that homework. Interesting to read-up on that. I dumped PREMX years ago. Today, The EM risk is not worth the dividends, in my opinion. :).
  • DODBX vs RPGAX?
    Based on MFO Premium analysis:
    1. RPGAX rated higher than DODBX on lower risk over 1, 3, and 5 years period.
    2. RPGAX has lower maximum drawdown in March 2020, -15.7% versus -21.0%, than that of DODBX. The recovery period is 7 months versus 11 months in favor of RPGAX.
    3. The ulcer index and Martin ratio are higher in RPGAX than those of DODBX.
    If you already own a growth-oriented allocation fund such as PRWCX, pairing it with the DODBX would allow you to capture the recent shift to value stocks.
    Even DODBX's $15B asset is not small, the firm should able to manage it well. BTW, D&C only managed 6 funds.
    If I don't have any balance fund, RPGAX would be a solid choice.
  • DODBX vs RPGAX?
    I own both. Good funds. This is purely hypothetical.
    If you were going to sell part or all of one to raise portfolio cash, which is the better one to retain going forward (1-3 years)?
    -
    In favor of keeping RPGAX: Has 10% in a Blackstone hedge fund that should protect somewhat in a bear market, has solid conservative management at TRP, probably has had a more level performance record since inception (but didn’t exist in 2008).
    - In favor of keeping DODBX: Much lower ER (.53% vs .95%), Is more in-tune with the recent shift towards value, bond portion is managed by the same folks that run their excellent DODIX
    MaxFunds is of little help. Forecasts a “worst case” (1 year) loss of 60% for RPGAX and a slightly worse 65% loss for DODBX. On the one-year upside potential, they’re rated identically. However, MaxFunds rates RPGAX much more highly overall. This appears largely based on their assessment that DODBX is bloated.
    *Note - I don’t think the “global” vs “domestic” issue is worth fretting over here. DODBX typically holds some foreign stocks - more than one might think.
  • Russian government bonds in your bond funds
    Owned PREMX (TRP) many years ago. I wonder if they'll be affected. Dunno what they're holding, these days. And that's not a local currency fund.
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    The old deck lumber we removed aged considerably and they hold little value. The climate here is tough on lumber products - hot in summer and wet in winter. The combined swelling and drying out processes require annual coating. Even at best effort the walking surfaces would last the most 5 years. Plastic lumber survives better and there are newer PVC-coated aluminum panels out now.
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    We resurfaced our deck several years ago with plastic lumber. Given the wet climate in Pacific Northwest wood products do not last. Last time I checked wood decking lumber was more than 40-50% higher than that of a year ago.
    Built a new side deck with lumber last summer. I’m thinking if it keeps going up in value I may be able to tear it out and sell the lumber this summer for 50% more than I paid back than. :)
    Certainly some “inflation psychology” evident with building products - despite the Fed’s admonition that it’s only “transitory”. What are they smokin?
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    @hank, thanks for the suggestion. I need to do more homework on this topic. Yes, PRNEX has been a sleeper for awhile since the old manager left.
    Interesting that you mentioned real estate as it is a backdoor play on commodity. My REIT investment over the last several years has many ups and down (especially last year). Now it is racing ahead as it is expecting to return to pre-COVID period late this year.
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    @Sven said, “Other investment opportunities??”
    Materials and energy are extremely volatile places to play. Very sensitive to the economy. As far as PRNEX goes, I’ve avoided it in recent years as just too erratic. It had a better manager many years ago than now I think. PRAFX is a cut above it and a bit less susceptible to the fortunes of the energy and equity markets. Folks shouldn’t overlook real estate in this area either. PRAFX typically allocates a substantial portion (30% or more) to real estate.
    Currently I have only 7-8% allocated to my “real assets” sleeve. Down from 10% at the end of 2020. The three I hold in that sleeve: PRAFX, BRCAX, OPGSX. Suggest the last one only for those who enjoy walking over mine-fields. :)
    (Earlier answer edited for brevity.)
  • What inflation? - U.S. Building Boom Sending Lumber and Steel Prices Through the Roof
    We resurfaced our deck several years ago with plastic lumber. Given the wet climate in Pacific Northwest wood products do not last. Last time I checked wood decking lumber was more than 40-50% higher than that of a year ago. The pandemic does not help.
    Other than T. Rowe Price New Era, PRNEX, I have not invested in other commodity funds/ETFs. PRNEX provides broad exposures to natural resources.
    https://troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRNEX#content-portfolio
    Other investment opportunities??
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    i own two bond funds OSTRX and WCPNX - im thinking of taking all the money out of OSTRX and adding it to WCPNX - but i wont make my decision til the end of the year. any comments on these funds would be very much appreciated. im not the brightest bulb on the tree when it comes to investing. i have made a lot of mistakes over the years.
    I like WCPNX and own it. Very consistent for a core bond fund, and up this year as well. What's not to like?
  • For Bonds, Add Safety by Venturing Abroad
    Re: “Add Safety by Venturing Abroad”
    Title’s a bit misleading. Try and find a prospectus for any foreign or global bond fund that doesn’t mention the increased risks of owning foreign bonds.
    I’ve always allocated a small chunk to foreign bonds (5-10% of portfolio), mainly because I don’t trust the Fed and politicians to protect the buying power of the USD. Nice to have some foreign bonds just in case of a dollar rout. I’d hazard a guess that my foreign bond exposure over several decades has produced a somewhat better return than the domestic side has. But too many variables to pin down the advantage.
    One variable is that more often than not your foreign bond fund is (fully or partially) hedged back to the U.S. dollar to reduce the volatility introduced by exchange rates. Another variable is the credit quality of the bonds owned. And a third is duration. Fees can be very high as well on foreign bond funds. A big variable is ability of manager to get the valuation / macro picture right and shift funds from country to country. TRP, IMHO, hasn’t been particularly successful at that over the years.
    One fund I’ve owned before that doesn’t hedge back to the dollar is PRELX. But I haven’t been too impressed since it came out. Have been tempted to pick some up recently because it’s down a bit this year and probably due for some kind of rebound. However, a counter argument is that the EM bond market usually suffers when U.S. equity markets correct. So, it might be better to wait longer until the current U.S. stock euphoria wears thin.
    An alternative to foreign bonds would be to invest directly in foreign currencies. Gets rid of interest rate risk. PRPFX does this to some degree and therefore benefits on days when the dollar is weak. Personally, about 10% of my portfolio is in DODLX. To be clear - this is a global bond fund, and often holds around 50% in domestic bonds, along with the international. The fund also dabbles a bit (5-10%) in the EM bond sector - adding incremental return without going off the reservation. With any bond fund, you want low fees, as fees consume a larger share of potential gains with bond funds. D&C does a decent job limiting expenses on all their funds.
  • IQDAX- If it's opaque, just maybe there's a reason?
    @Baseball_Fan
    Since everything is liquidated & in cash now, it would seem distribution should be straight forward & your figures seem about right unfortunately.
    Also unfortunately, they are still recalculating NAV as of February 18 as well as all past NAVs for the past 2 years or more. So who knows what those numbers will be & when that distribution will occur.
    And then there is the matter of "reserves".
    This is their latest FAQ page dated April 8.
    It might end up being more like a 50% loss, at least initially. But they did mention that there might be a second distribution as well.
    Then there are the lawsuits- class action against the fund, Infinity Q Capital Management, and specific individuals responsible and also any potential lawsuit on behalf of the fund against Infinity Q Capital Management to recoup costs incurred through this whole process.
    @wxman123
    What SIPC Protects
    SIPC protection is limited. SIPC only protects the custody function of the broker dealer, which means that SIPC works to restore to customers their securities and cash that are in their accounts when the brokerage firm liquidation begins.
    SIPC does not protect against the decline in value of your securities. SIPC does not protect individuals who are sold worthless stocks and other securities. SIPC does not protect claims against a broker for bad investment advice, or for recommending inappropriate investments.
    It is important to recognize that SIPC protection is not the same as protection for your cash at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insured banking institution because SIPC does not protect the value of any security.
    But there is at least one firm advertising to sue your broker if they recommended IQDAX.