Lots of mid cycle thoughts...

But don't worry, that's likely not happening any time soon. However, it does mean we could move from an early cycle playbook to more of a mid cycle strategy sooner than normal. Sectors like energy, industrials and health care may do better from here, which is earlier than what we experienced in the prior two expansions. It also means small caps start to underperform large caps sooner than normal, which is a big reason we downgraded small caps last week.
The bottom line: this cycle and bull market likely have years to run. However, it’s running at a faster speed, and that means staying nimble and a bit more tactical with one's equity portfolio. Consider moving more mid-cycle sooner, rather than later.

Audio and weekly Brief:
https://morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-wilson

I know a number of funds out there have long been investing in late stage, private, pre-ipo companies for awhile now - T. Rowe's Ellenbogen comes to mind. Do any of you have concerns with this?
One one hand, it makes sense given how late companies have been waiting to IPO (though that seems to have changed in the last two years, especially with this SPAC party). Mutual funds used to particpiate much earlier in a companies stage of development since they IPOd early, thus we as public investors could be a part of a majority of the growth story (think Apple, Microsoft, etc). But again, that's not the case with many firms like Uber, etc.
On the other hand, Woodford across the pond obvoiusly went too far with his fund and blew it up.

@dstone42 that stinkin FLPSX is having a break out YTD. Sold it a few years ago. I believe Fidelity Equity Income is strong too and thankfully FSMAX.

A little more Larry Summer's:
"Fiscally Intransigent"
summers-says-u-s-facing-worst-macroeconomic-policy-in-40-years

@royal4 - that’s a fair question: “ What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover?”
I ask myself that question regularly.
But another way to look at it... how many times in history has the S&P 500 dropped 20-30 percent? The next question is... and when it has... how many times has it taken 3-5 years to recover? When I’ve examined that... I’ve found scarcity and not regularity. That gives me comfort.

Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to make 6% with SD < 3. I'm mainly a bond OEF trader, probably close to 90% are from bond OEFs. I have invested mostly in 2-3 funds which means I only need 2 great performing bond funds. So far I made much more in the last than the goal + SD=2.5%. YTD already several % up.
More:
1) All the money is invested, no cash. Only in high risk market I'm out. In the last 10-11 years I was out under 2%. Before that I was in all the time.
2) Since the beginning in 1995 I hardly used alternative funds, definitely not for more than several weeks or a big %. I keep is simple, stocks, bond, and allocation funds.
3) Many average Joe retirees that have enough can do the following. They have some cash flow (from SS + distribution + pension + can sell something), in good times they can sell stocks and in bad times they can sell some bonds. Some of these bonds should be a ballast for stocks which means in market meltdown they will go up or have minimal losses.
4) Cash? I never believed in cash since the beginning even in retirement. You can have 3-6 months of living expenses and can sell something (per #3 above) 3-4 times annually. I never had an emergency I couldn't handle. I have used credit cards, then I have several thousands in cash and I can always sell my funds and get money in 2 days.

It's not uncommon for investment management firms to have separate teams for different strategies. For example, here are RW Baird's equity teams:
https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/baird-equity-asset-management/team#GrowthTeam
Those divide along growth/value/int'l lines. For a company like Baillie Gifford that focuses on growth, its dividing lines are finer. Growth: large cap, or small cap, or all cap; "rapid" growth: broad or concentrated. Five different int'l teams with sometimes subtly different styles.
HAIGX pulls from the all cap growth team, while VWIGX and BGESX pull from the rapid growth (broad) team, and BTLSX is managed by the rapid growth (concentrated) team.
Here's BG's blurb on its five international equity strategies and teams;
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/funds/mutual-funds/baillie-gifford-international-equity-strategies/
While some of the difference between HAIGX and VWIGX comes from Schroeders, much of it is due to the different BG teams managing the funds. You can test this by looking at the overlap between VWIGX and BGESX. The major (>2%) holdings of VWIGX that aren't in BGESX are Tesla (5.51%) and Illumina (2.30%). VWIGX has 13 holdings above 2%. All data from M* instant x-ray.
Likewise, you can look at the overlap between VWIGX and SCIEX (for the Schroeder team). The pure Schroeder fund doesn't hold Tesla or Illumina. So maybe these holdings in VWIGX came from the Schroeder team, thoujgh Schroeders is less growth oriented than BG. We may never know.
I'm glad you brought up HAIGX, because it serves to highlight an obscure attribute. Like many fund families, Harbor funds hire an in-house management company (Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc.) to manage the funds, to select and oversee the subadviser third party management firms (here, Baille Gifford Overseas Ltd.), and in the case of multiple subadvisers, to decide who manages what percentage of the funds.
2021 Prospectus, p. 41 (pdf p. 44)
When a Vanguard fund is managed by Vanguard, it hires The Vanguard Group as the management company. Though unlike Harbor, when a Vanguard fund outsources the day-to-day management of the fund it typically outsources the full management job. For these funds, the third parties are not subadvisors, but the actual advisors. The oversight responsibility is retained by the fund's board, as is the responsibility of deciding which advisory firm gets to manage how much of the fund.
2020 Prospectus, p. 16 (pdf p. 18)
This also means that what happens to VWIGX when Anderson retires in a year is up to the Vanguard fund's board. It could, for example, live with the remaining less experienced (by 16 or more years) BG fund managers while allocating a greater fraction of the portfolio to Schroeders. In that case, one might say that Schroeders would be the successor to Anderson.
For example, this is what Vanguard did when Barrow retired from Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss:

Vanguard had been slowly redistributing Windsor II’s assets to other subadvisers in the years since BHMS founder Jim Barrow, who had managed the fund since its 1985 inception, announced he was stepping down at the end of 2015. At the time of Barrow’s retirement, BHMS managed about 60% of the overall portfolio. That number was nearly halved over the past four years, with the firm managing 37% of Windsor II’s assets at last report.

https://www.adviserinvestments.com/adviser-fund-update/vanguard-manager-firing-fails-to-fix-funds-faults/
A bit more on BG's international growth strategy and portfolio construction group:
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/institutional-only-literature/philosophy-and-process/international-growth-philosophy-and-process/

I'm rather certain that over the long haul, you'd have reaped more profit from PRWCX than dividend-paying stocks. For years, the big Canadian banks have been my alternative fantasy portfolio. 90% of deposits in Canada belong to those big banks. There are only 5 or 6 of them. High dividends. Low P/E ratios. I would not go to BMO Bank of Montreal now, after recently learning here of their unethical shenanigans toward investors. But the others? Yes. My two favorites are CM and BNS. You're holding 15K in cash? Maybe you're very, very risk averse? If you just want the assurance of investing in solid companies that are not going to fold up and go bankrupt, and you crave the dividend income, then go for it. Just don't forget never to put all your eggs in one basket. Eh? CIBC: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/cm/quote
Scotiabank: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bns/quote
But they are riding high, right now. EVERYTHING is riding high, or near all-time highs, even including the recent small (so far) drop-off. The Market's had a tremendous run-up since March of 2020. Wait for another pullback.
:)

Thank you, I'm on the same page with you about Canadian names, banks. For some reason, Canadian equities are more quality-oriented, and less P/E (less expensive).
As far as risk-averse,...timing is (may not be the best personal investment quality) I invested in MSSMX (as in since the 2nd of January through mid-Feb, up 30%). Now in cash.

To hopefully make those with losses feel better, I’ll go the other way. Back in 2010 I became convinced that the housing bubble/financial crash was really a gasoline price driven event and that gasoline would immediately go back to $4/gal. And in the process oil companies would benefit, So I bought some shares in IXC and the Canadian small cap index CNDA. 10 years later, my IXC investment is still underwater. CNDA shuttered years ago.

Our benchmark remains FBALX. Yes, a bit "hot" for many in retirement, as an investment. Though not invested in the fund in 2008, it took a big hit, too; as with many other 70/30% funds. We have been able to get close to the 15 year return of 8.48, which has changed from about an average of 8.2% annualized as 2020 returns bumped this number. We attempt to get close to 7.5-8% annualized. 'Course, as expected, not unlike others; we've had the very good years get whacked by the poop years. Our largest portfolio benefit was to escape the 2000 and 2008 melts. Not fun to "make up" a portfolio loss from an actual sell. We have not yet decided whether FBALX will be a major percent holding when we stop meddling with our holdings. Our active would become a psuedo passive with FBALX management of the money.

YTD, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, Since Inception (7 periods time frame)
Returns 3.78% 59.15% 14.23% 13.68% 11.03% 8.48% 9.76%
Category Ranking % 21 32 7 4 3 4 7
# of funds category 695 697 664 639 571 411 300

SP500 Index for money needed in 3 years?! What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover? You're going to be selling at the worse time. It's been so long people are starting to forget what can happen... most crashes/bear markets don't end as fast as 2020 did. I don't know, maybe that's the new normal fast down and fast back up since everyone carries the stock market around on their phone now.

I don’t have time to run an accuracy check of everything this M* contributor claims. So please don’t hold me accountable. But I do agree with her that for some (myself included) using a benchmark can be helpful, as long as the risk / reward profile fits with your own. As the author asserts, this can be an index / combination of indexes or a mutual fund / combination of funds.
Morningstar Article
As a 25+ year investor with TRP I’ve generally used one or two of their funds for this purpose. For years my benchmark / tracking fund was their 40/60 retirement fund TRRIX. Beginning this year it flipped to their PRSIX - a nearly identical fund, but with a 5% weighting in a hedge fund. Performance wise they’ve also been nearly identical over the years.
The value of benchmarking is that over time (months / years) you arrive at an understanding of how your portfolio performs relative to the benchmark. If you find you’re deviating a lot more than you like it’s easy to modify holdings until your performance falls more in line with your tracker. There will always be exceptions, of course. Ideally you’d like to keep volatility (especially on the downside) similar to or below that of the tracker while enjoying somewhat superior overall performance. It’s a process that evolves over years and never really stops.
Friday, my combined portfolio gained .07% - one of the dullest days I can remember. However, my tracker, PRSIX, gained just .05%. IMHO that’s reason to be cheerful.

Mine are all different colors. Here’s my guess as to what’s happening this year from watching markets .....
Mostly Green - energy, commodities, real estate, financials, very short duration bonds, deep value funds - the kind nobody’s wanted for several years. (For example, recent outcasts OAKBX and *DODBX are having great years.)
Mostly Red - Intermediate and longer duration bonds and bond funds, gold, aggressive growth funds - much loved in recent years.
Yellow - Moderate or conservative allocation funds: *ABRZX +1.61% YTD,
*PRSIX +1.91% YTD
With exposure to just about everything above, my results this year have been quite colorful. :)
* Denotes a fund I own

I'm rather certain that over the long haul, you'd have reaped more profit from PRWCX than dividend-paying stocks. For years, the big Canadian banks have been my alternative fantasy portfolio. 90% of deposits in Canada belong to those big banks. There are only 5 or 6 of them. High dividends. Low P/E ratios. I would not go to BMO Bank of Montreal now, after recently learning here of their unethical shenanigans toward investors. But the others? Yes. My two favorites are CM and BNS. You're holding 15K in cash? Maybe you're very, very risk averse? If you just want the assurance of investing in solid companies that are not going to fold up and go bankrupt, and you crave the dividend income, then go for it. Just don't forget never to put all your eggs in one basket. Eh? CIBC: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/cm/quote
Scotiabank: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bns/quote
But they are riding high, right now. EVERYTHING is riding high, or near all-time highs, even including the recent small (so far) drop-off. The Market's had a tremendous run-up since March of 2020. Wait for another pullback.
:)

Last years dog IOFIX +5.18%
And then there are some CEF bond funds - YTD returns Price/NAV all positive
PCI 8.56/2.55
PDI 5.69/1.67
PFN 4.33/0.85
PTY 1.65/2.28

@davidmoran “ Where if anywhere will you put spare moneys? Where should I put moneys now which I will not need for a few years (not a decade, but not 3-4y either)?” ...
Just saw your question back to me... since I like to ask questions when I’m unsure or want other viewpoints. Based on your question... that implies 2-3 years time horizon. If you need those funds in 3 years... conservatively - I would go S&P 500 Index. Not bonds. Not any kind of bond fund. But yes I suppose a nice 500 index would fair better in the next 3 years vs. in cash earning no money.
@michaelsaylor would suggest Bitcoin. But I still view that as Vegas gambling (for now).

My MMFs are up, short term, YTD, long term. I may die rich in a billion years.
With "cash alternative" funds like RPHYX, up 0.10% for the week, 0.14% for the past month, and 0.46% YTD, and "old faithfuls" like PRWCX, up 0.17% for the week, 1.85% for the past month, and 3.22% YTD, I suspect lots of people here have funds that are in the green.
According to M*'s screener, 1/4 of funds are up at least 3.77% over the past four weeks.
People tend to feel losses more severely than gains. That may explain your perception, which is not to say that major portions of the market have not dropped lately. Still, there are parts of the market, like international (e.g. VXUS) that are up for the week.
Personally, I don't look at individual funds' performance on a short term basis. I have a reasonably diversified portfolio, weatherproofed for down drafts, and usually just check overall performance.

@FD1000: "I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns."
I wonder if it's the one I own that's up a shade over 6% ytd, with negative duration.

Is there a Bond Fund that Shorts Bonds? I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns.
why-world-would-you-own-bonds-ray-dalio? Because many retires that have enough don't want to have the high volatility of stocks
There are ETFs that Short Bonds: No thanks, I want to find managers that do it for me, I hardly ever shorted anything.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/03/19/taxable-municipals-myths-and-misperceptions
https://news.yahoo.com/9-best-municipal-bond-funds-211119796.html
Taxable Municipals – Myths and Misperceptions
by Tony Tanner of Ivy Investments, 3/19/21
Taxable Municipal Bonds grabbed the attention of not only municipal bond market participants in 2020, but also of investors and financial professionals globally across the asset class landscape.
9 Best Municipal Bond Funds to Buy and Hold
Debbie Carlson
State and local governments are in good shape.
***Like other asset classes, the municipal bond market rebounded after the initial sell-off last year because of the pandemic. Amy Magnotta, co-head of discretionary portfolios at Brinker Capital Investments, says state and local governments "are actually in pretty good shape, surprisingly, despite the pandemic," noting most state revenues were roughly flat in 2020 versus 2019. With President Joe Biden's stimulus money and infrastructure plan, and the reopening of many states' economies, the fiscal situation for many state and local governments might be good as they get cash injections. However, she says, with interest rates so low, investors need to be careful what funds they choose. Here are nine muni bond funds to buy.
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (ticker: VTEB)
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Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA, says exchange-traded fund VTEB is a good place for muni bond investors to start when building this part of their portfolio. The fund tracks the S&P Municipal Bond Index, which is made of investment-grade issues and diversified across states. VTEB's annual cost is 0.06%, which amounts to $6 for every $10,000 invested, one of the lowest among its peers. The fund is free from both federal income tax from the alternative minimum tax. The yield is 2%. "It's a great core part of the portfolio," Rosenbluth says.
Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
The municipal bond universe can be an inefficient asset class due to its large number of issuers, says Steven Saunders, director and portfolio advisor at Round Table Wealth Management, so his firm prefers to use actively managed funds where the managers can find relative value through security selection and yield-curve positioning. His pick is BTMIX, which "has demonstrated consistent value-add in these areas, and their short-duration strategy allows for defensive positioning in the event rates continue to rise." The fund has an annual cost of 0.3% and a yield of 1.5%.
- ADVERTISEMENT -
PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
Mark Mumford, director at Hollow Brook Wealth Management, says his firm looks for municipal bonds strategies that have a strong emphasis on credit quality and issuer diversification. GNMVX tries to limit swings in assets under management which can negatively affect a municipal bond strategy, he adds. The fund has a low annual fee of 0.39% and a yield of 1.67%, with an effective duration of 5.3 years. The fund seeks investment-grade bonds with higher yields using fundamental credit research. "Municipal markets can be inefficient, creating opportunities for experienced teams to find value in a low interest rate environment," Mumford says.
Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
Magnotta says with rates low and a recent pickup in market volatility, she prefers active management and is focusing on investment-grade munis. She chooses NOITX, because she likes that it has an experienced team with a long tenure, holds high-quality issues and has a liquid portfolio. She notes the annual cost of 0.46% is below average. "This is a strategy that long term is a good balance in a portfolio," Magnotta says. This fund has more than $3 billion in assets under management, and the average credit quality in the fund is A-rated.***
Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)
-- Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund (BTMIX)
-- PIMCO National Municipal Intermediate Value Fund (GNMVX)
-- Northern Intermediate Tax-Exempt Fund (NOITX)
-- Nuveen Dynamic Municipal Opportunities Fund (NDMO)
-- VanEck Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD)
-- Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (NHMRX)
-- Nuveen All-American Municipal Bond Fund (FAARX)
-- Northern Arizona Tax-Exempt Fund (NOAZX)
Several good reasonable funds considered to be added here especially for capital Preservation and retirement accts/and inflation worries.
We do have HYD but may add some to Mama retired portfolio
Enjoy
Happy Saturday