Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PTCRX (PTAM, Perf. Trust new fund.)
    @Crash, I think it's just more credit exposure, but of roughly the same sorts of credit as PTIAX. Even in PTIAX, they've broken out into a more multisector strategy than their old simple barbell of munis and non-agency mortgages.
    I've held PTIAX for years now. I think their strategy is a winner long term.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    A worry for retirees: Inflation forecasts hit 8-year high
    MarketWatch
    *The investment returns from their bonds and cash fell way behind.
    Https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-worry-for-retirees-inflation-forecasts-hit-8-year-high-11615768498
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/the-threat-retirees-face-from-higher-inflation-2021-03-12
    Inflation expectations have risen over the last couple of months
    Inflation is heating up, and retirees are worried.
    That’s because they are heavily invested in bonds, which suffer when inflation causes interest rates to rise. Just since the beginning of the year, for example, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund has lost 2.2% and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund has lost 10.8%. Those losses exceed the full-year gains those funds have produced in some recent years.*
    Think many retired folks may have adjust portfolio to get higher risks/achieve the returns they desired like others mentioned. Some say may need to worry, others say everything may balance out
    energy, agriculture, lower rated bonds/HY, stocks / energy maybe in big plays
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Rudolph-Riad Younes and Richard Pell cost me a few dollars.
    I was an investor in Julius Baer Intl Equity (later Artio Intl Equity) from 2003 - 2011.
    BJBIX outperformed its Foreign Large Blend peers for many years under the tenure of Messrs. Pell and Younes. Morningstar wrote the following about managers Richard Pell and Rudolph-Riad Younes in April 2008.
    "They have outperformed the foreign large-blend peer group in every single calendar year since they took over in 1995, and they've beaten the MSCI EAFE in all but one year."
    Yahoo Finance indicates that the fund susbsequently lagged its Foreign Large Blend peers from 2009 - 2012.
    Messrs. Pell and Younes managed the fund until May 2013.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Here's additional current information from NPR on the likely COVID source:
    A member of the World Health Organization investigative team says wildlife farms in southern China are the most likely source of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    China shut down those wildlife farms in February 2020, says Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist with EcoHealth Alliance and a member of the WHO delegation that traveled to China this year. During that trip, Daszak says, the WHO team found new evidence that these wildlife farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan with animals.
    Daszak told NPR that the government response was a strong signal that the Chinese government thought those farms were the most probable pathway for a coronavirus in bats in southern China to reach humans in Wuhan.
    Those wildlife farms, including ones in the Yunnan region, are part of a unique project that the Chinese government has been promoting for 20 years now.
    "They take exotic animals, like civets, porcupines, pangolins, raccoon dogs and bamboo rats, and they breed them in captivity," says Daszak.
    The agency is expected to release the team's investigative findings in the next two weeks. In the meantime, Daszak gave NPR a highlight of what the team figured out.
    "China promoted the farming of wildlife as a way to alleviate rural populations out of poverty," Daszak says. The farms helped the government meet ambitious goals of closing the rural-urban divide, as NPR reported last year.
    "It was very successful," Daszak says. "In 2016, they had 14 million people employed in wildlife farms, and it was a $70 billion industry."
    Then on Feb. 24, 2020, right when the outbreak in Wuhan was winding down, the Chinese government made a complete about-face about the farms.
    "What China did then was very important," Daszak says. "They put out a declaration saying that they were going to stop the farming of wildlife for food."
    The government shut down the farms. "They sent out instructions to the farmers about how to safely dispose of the animals — to bury, kill or burn them — in a way that didn't spread disease."
    Why would the government do this? Because, Daszak thinks, these farms could be the spot of spillover, where the coronavirus jumped from a bat into another animal and then into people. "I do think that SARS-CoV-2 first got into people in South China. It's looking that way."
    First off, many farms are located in or around a southern province, Yunnan, where virologists found a bat virus that's genetically 96% similar to SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. Second, the farms breed animals that are known to carry coronaviruses, such as civet cats and pangolins.
    Finally, during the WHO's mission to China, Daszak said the team found new evidence that these farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, where an early outbreak of COVID-19 occurred.
    The market was shut down overnight on Dec. 31, 2019, after it was linked to cases of what was then described as a mysterious pneumonia-like illness.
    "There was massive transmission going on at that market for sure," says Linfa Wang, a virologist who studies bat viruses at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore. He's also part of the WHO investigative team. Wang says that after the outbreak at the Huanan market, Chinese scientists went there and looked for the virus.
    "In the live animal section, they had many positive samples," Wang says. "They even have two samples from which they could isolate live virus."
    And so Daszak and others on the WHO team believe that the wildlife farms provided a perfect conduit between a coronavirus-infected bat in Yunnan (or neighboring Myanmar) and a Wuhan animal market.
    "China closes that pathway down for a reason," Daszak says. "The reason was, back in February 2020, they believed this was the most likely pathway [for the coronavirus to spread to Wuhan]. And when the WHO report comes out ... we believe it's the most likely pathway too."
    The next step, says Daszak, is to figure out specifically which animal carried the virus and at which of the many wildlife farms.
  • A Roll-Your-Own TMSRX Alternative? [TRP's Multi Strategy Total Return Fund]
    I agree that 3 years performance is bit short in risking of not seeing the entire picture. The fund is set up as a defensive position.
  • Investing in Freedom - Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF - FRDM
    My bitch Lewis is that even to this day, despite the clear wording of the Declaration, white males are considered and treated like they are more equal than all the others. That imbalance extends to housing, healthcare, employment, opportunity, wages for equal work, freedom, you name it. It's still an uphill battle after 240+ years.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Re @bee’s above comments...
    We kicked this concept around here roughly a decade ago. I thought than it was totally WACKO.
    In hindsight, it would appear to me anyway that if a retiree is able to protect & grow his / her nest-egg during the crucial first decade following retirement, than (depending on circumstances) that person might be in a somewhat better position to assume greater market risk later on. Perhaps mentioned already - but if home equity has grown substantially over those years, it’s also an argument for taking on a bit more market risk.
    Why is the first decade so important? Because a large % loss than might prove more devastating than were it to occur later on after (1) net worth had increased appreciably and (2) life expectancy had decreased. All depends ...
    I never liked glide-paths and have assiduously avoided funds that incorporate them. Fine for people who pay little attention to markets and investing. But I’d rather have the ability to add or pull back on market exposure than to venture down the one-way street glide-paths seem to lock one onto. The experience in 2007-9 and to some extent in early 2020 demonstrate the advantage of being nimble rather than locked in.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    After years of accumulating a retirement nest egg using exclusively low cost, well diversified Target Date Funds, determine your income needs and allocate a portion of your portfolio to meet those income needs. Your Target Dated Fund (now very conservative) could be your funding source (4% rule).
    Slowly recast these funds out on the Target Date spectrum towards a higher equity weighting. This allows part of your portfolio to slowly move into a higher weighting in equities as you age and help avoid sequence of return risk early in retirement.
    Should Equity Exposure Decrease In Retirement, Or Is A Rising Equity Glide path Actually Better?
    Yet the research shows that rising glide paths can be so effective, they may actually lead to lower average equity exposure throughout retirement, even while obtaining more favorable outcomes. And ironically, it turns out that for those who do want to implement a rising equity glide path, the best approach might actually be to explain it to clients as a bucket strategy in the first place!
    should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better
  • A Roll-Your-Own TMSRX Alternative? [TRP's Multi Strategy Total Return Fund]
    A side by side comparison of the 3 above mentioned funds would show a similar “average” track over the past 3 years. Looks like by combining RPGAX and PBDIX you’d arrive at a return near that of TMSRX and a roughly similar degree of volatility.
    Umm ... Why are we doing a performance comparison for a fund barely 3 years old? I’d argue anything can happen over such a short period. As far as fees go, TMSRX engages in short sales of securities - a CYA tactic against steep equity losses. Funds that engage in shorting typically have higher costs due to borrowing cash to cover the shorts. At one time they were able to hide those costs inside a fund’s operating costs, but SEC regs a couple decades back required those to be shown in the ER - hence an elevated ER. As a relatively new fund, fees for TMSRX are probably higher now than what TRP will eventually establish as assets grow. (Getting to the front of the line sometimes costs extra.)
    PBDIX* is, of course, a plain vanilla intermediate term investment grade bond index fund with relatively low fees. I owned it during 2020, but unloaded it early this year in favor of shorter duration funds. RPGAX is a global balanced fund with an added 10% hedge fund exposure. Its managers do apply some interesting defensive tactics using derivatives. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re shorting something (likely a bond or equity index), but would expect that to be in substantially lesser proportion and less frequently applied than what TMSRX does.
    “Fond of TMSRX”? - All things are relative. I’d put it differently. TMSRX is a refuge for those “not fond” of either equity or fixed income valuations today. It’s a defensive fund.
    Disclosure: TMSRX represents 16-17% of portfolio.
    * Fund ticker symbol (PBDIX) was initially incorrect. Have corrected.
    -
    Here’s a tool that lets you run side by side comparisons of up to 5 funds for periods of 1, 3 or 5 years. It allows you to play around with time period covered as well as looking at both a linear graph and a side by side table comparison. Clicking “performance” pulls up a linear graph. One of the better tools I’ve come across and what I used in comparing the funds under discussion.
    https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/us/compare
  • IVA Worldwide and International Funds to liquidate
    I have no idea but I think the Frenchman kinda did a Barry Sanders (Detroit Lions)...just decided he had enough and is moving on.
    Of course Sanders arguably was on the top of his game and arguably next to #34 Walter was amongst the greatest running backs in the NFL.
    I just hope it was his decision and not some outside influence or other negative occurrence that caused the shut down. Was kind of weird that the other guy stepped away several months ago and now this. You get the feeling that in the coming years a fund like IVWIX would have greatly outperformed after some recent underperformance. Always darkest before dawn...
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Along these lines...inflation talk...anyone want to surmise a guess what I Bonds will reset to come May 1st? Do you think combined rate will be over 2% (at 1.68% now)...over 2.5%?? I think this will be the best investment going forward maybe for the next 10 years...I Bonds...maybe?
    I think the largest inflation we are going to experience going forward will be two fold: tax inflation up the ying yang and shrinkage inflation...have you bought a box of cereal lately...lordy, lordy, Tather Murphy's turning forty....it seems the jumbo box has turned into a single serve packet overnight!
    Gas over 3 bucks a gallon...we're just getting started with inflation...any thoughts on the ETF INFL??
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: I have the largest slice of our assets with TIAA because of my employment. My current plan is to move what’s now with Schwab and TDA to a brokerage account at TIAA so that my family will have only one wealth manager to deal with when I can’t or don’t want to be involved. I’ve been with the same advisor there for some 20 years, so I feel comfortable my heirs will be in good hands. Our arrangement will resemble moving into a retirement community that provides various levels of care starting with fully independent living and ending with that stage I don’t want to contemplate.
    @hank’s comments on the various TRP funds/strategies are right on. At this point, I’m using TMSRX as an alternative to cash and to part of what might normally be bonds for me. PTIAX remains, IOFAX is gone, and the remaining non-equity money is destined for one or two allocation funds, surely with TRP. I doubt I’d know of these options without MFO and its skilled commentators for which I’m grateful.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    @davidmoran- about 3 or 4 years ago- a long river cruise on a small boat through France and then a week or so over on the Italian Ligurian coast. Wonderful trip, for sure. Fortunately the virus was not really debilitating- just enough to knock me off my pace for a couple of weeks, and the trip on the rivers was pretty restful and easygoing physically.
    OJ
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    Several years ago it was @msf who brought the difference to my attention.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/129057/#Comment_129057
    It would be instructive to compare the two equivalent funds of the same year and see the % difference. Also there is an institutional series of TDF that requires $1M minimum to invest. They are for business retirement accounts and pension fund.
    TIAA is a good company for teacher retirement accounts. We use Vanguard index funds to invest for our kids 529 college funds. It is the power of compounding of invested $ that help us to achieve our goal. Same goal here to invest for retirement using T. Rowe Price.
    As we age we would like to reduce the complexicity of managing the portfolio by embracing target dated funds. When our mental capacity is reduced at later part of our lives, TDF would be very helpful to achieve our goal.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    TMSRX doesn't appeal to me, at first glance. I don't even know what TRP lists as being contained in its portfolio. But M* (my handy go-to) shows a single item. Feels like a "black box" to me. I'm glad to hear from you all. Being a rank amateur, I don't like to get fancy. To my mind, the advantage to RPGAX is its global reach. Yet I see not much at all in the portfolio that will benefit from small-cap successes. I suppose I'm already certain to hold onto smid-international PRIDX. My small-cap exposure is 11% of total. In the US, it isn't even 3% of my total. PRDSX.
    I've always, since I started investing, managed to paint myself into a corner. What I mean is: I started with a small stake from an inheritance, but after that, my stuff grew minutely, in baby-steps over time, with each paycheck. Wanting the tax advantage, virtually all of it went into my 403b. (I was lucky to be able to self-direct that baby.). I never had any stash in a standard, taxable account that I could rearrange freely. For years, I've resisted using an agent that can very easily move money around for me, like Jones or Schwab or the others. Now I'm fully committed to the "KISS" Principle, while babysitting the portfolio myself.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    "There is relatively little airflow forward and backward between rows, making it less likely to spread respiratory particles between rows."
    Did you read any of the responses to that article? For instance, this one:
    "As a ventilation engineer with 40+ years experience in exposure control (including biohazard labs) I find the assertion that general ventilation on an aircraft - as opposed to local exhaust - will effectively control close quarter exposure to "droplets" (or, more technically correct, an aerosol from coughing, sneezing or talking) is questionable."
    On our last trip to Europe the guy behind me was coughing and hacking for 5000 miles. There was "relatively" enough airflow to do me in. Took me one day to come down with his virus and three weeks to recover. Don't even talk to me about the wonderful ventilation systems on planes.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    Good post @bee.
    Not mentioned in the excerpt is how unfair the pandemic has been to lower income Americans who weren’t able to work from home and many of whom don’t participate in the stock market. Yet, they have endured the disease and suffering to a greater extent than the better-off along with being hit with the rising prices for food and essentials.
    What they say about pent-up demand is true. Took just 6 days after the 2nd Pfizer injection to book a flight to a warmer climate. Hear similar stories from others - some booking trips on faith before even being vaccinated. Airfares are likely to go to the sky. I have several big home maintenance jobs due - some deferred earlier out of concerns about having workers inside during worst of the pandemic. Very concerned about a looming labor shortage and higher labor / materials costs.
    Your excerpt implies we might be in for a 10-year romp akin to the 20s. Of course, there are some differences. My Accord Hybrid gets much better mileage than did Gatsby’s Rolls Royce. Also, in his day gas was something like 20 cents a gallon. 10 more years of rising stock prices? A bit too much to expect - unless a “bubble inside of bubble” develops. Could happen.
    image
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    US Global Investor - Investor Weekly:
    A little over a hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the double whammy of a world war and deadly pandemic. Eager to get back to “normal” life, Americans went on a decade-long spending splurge, buying cars and radios and stocks.
    Although we all know how it ended, the Roaring Twenties was largely a product of pent-up demand.
    This summer, I believe we could see the start of a similar demand-driven economic boom as millions of Americans, newly vaccinated and $1,400 richer, make up for lost time by booking flights and vacations, going on cruises, visiting family out of state and more.
    As I shared with you earlier this month, close to $18 trillion sit in Americans’ savings accounts right now—a record amount. Much of this cash is just waiting to be unleased into the U.S. economy.
    https://usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Excellent articles thank you for posting!
    Do wonder the models account for crazy investing manias which we def have now, potential huge war on our turf, we mess with the wrong folks we'd most def see missle rain on our turf or em pulse knocking out our infrastructure and regardless will we experience extreme socialism where we are headed, that won't be good for stonks
    I would think all bets are off and then the question will be can we cross borders with our wealth
    Also how much more impact will bitcoin have? Will it turn into the place to be or another investing farce?
    With advances in genetics do you need to push the curve out to 55, 60 years??
    Good health and good luck to all
    Baseball Fan
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Thanks @ davidmorn
    I am also intrigued by Pfau's & Kitces studies that suggest:
    In a world where the conventional wisdom is that retirees should reduce their equity exposure throughout retirement as their time horizon shortens, this research suggests that in reality, the ideal may actually be the exact opposite.
    and,
    if the portfolio is depleted too severely by withdrawals and bad returns in the early years, there won’t be enough (or any) money left for when the good returns finally arrive. And notably, the truly dire situations are not merely severe market crashes that occur shortly after retirement, but instead the extended periods of “merely mediocre” returns that last for more than a decade, which are far too long to “wait out” just using some cash and intermediate bond buckets. Conversely, when the equity glidepath is rising and the retiree adds to equities throughout retirement (and/or especially in the first half of retirement), then by the time the market reaches a bottom and the next big bull market finally begins, equity exposure is greater and the retiree can participate even more!
    I have often thought...
    Own retirement date funds (that have a glide path) towards initial retirement (your retirement date) and then re-cast these "retirement date " funds out over your retirement horizon in increments that maximize a SWR, Portfolio Duration (You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years), and Terminal Value.
    Here's a link to Kitces discussion on the topic:
    https://kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/