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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best TIPS ETFs for Qtr 3 2021 (Article)
    The spread has been slightly higher within the past decade (2.57% in early Oct 2012 and in mid March 2013), and hasn't dropped below 1¼% since then. The non-inflation-adjusted portion of the TIPS yield in that time frame was similar to today's -0.8%. So while we're close to extreme values, this isn't something we haven't seen before.
    Given that negative yield, if one is willing to forgo short term liquidity, ISTM I bonds would be the better investment. They are never sold with a fixed rate under 0%. After a year, you can redeem and forfeit 90 days interest. After five years, you can redeem for the full value.
    They're more like CDs than bonds - aside from forfeiture of interest, you won't lose money. That differs from bonds where early "redemption" means selling on the secondary market where you could lose principal. Like CDs, you can ladder I-bonds to generate an income stream. That's something you almost have to do because you're limited to $10K/year/SSN and $5K/year/tax return (joint or individual).
    Here's the Fed graph from the Investopedia piece, with the 10 year Treasury yield curve and the 10 year TIPS yield curve overlayed. The original curve (the spread) is just the difference (height) between the two overlaid curves.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=EmIE
  • Poll - EV survivor
    Sorry - I can’t make a prediction like that. Thought you might find this article of interest.
    From the WSJ: May 26, 2021
    “Ford Motor Co. shares rose to their highest level in nearly five years after the auto maker outlined a tech-centric strategy to electrify much of its vehicle lineup
    “Ford said it plans to boost spending on electric-vehicle development to $30 billion by 2025, roughly one-third more than it forecast earlier this year. The increase in spending—a total that includes some money spent in the past few years—is driven by Ford’s plans to eventually begin manufacturing its own batteries, including at two future U.S. battery-cell factories …

    “Ford executives told investors during a virtual presentation that they expect 40% of the company’s global sales to be fully electric by 2030 … Shares rose 8.7% to $13.92 in trading Wednesday, their highest level since at least mid-2016.”
  • Holding non-Vanguard funds at Vanguard or Schwab
    It used to be that Vanguard provided access to institutional class shares of several funds at lower mins than at other brokerages. That's still true for Columbia funds. But other things have changed.
    Vanguard offers Pimco institutional class shares (e.g. PDIIX) with a $25K min. This used to be better than other brokerages. Schwab used to require $100K. But now Schwab requires only $2.5K ($1K for IRAs).
    Consider TIBIX. It has a $2.5M min,. That's what Fidelity requires in taxable accounts. But Fidelity sells it to IRA investors with a $2500 min. Schwab requires that same $2500 in a taxable account and just $1K in an IRA. Vanguard's mins are $100K (taxable and IRA).
    For several years Fidelity has been making institutional shares of many funds available for low mins in IRAs. That's not documented - you have to ask or set up test trades to find the funds. More recently, Schwab lowered mins on many funds including some institutional class shares.
    For the most part, the trend at brokerages is for more choices at lower cost/mins. Beyond that, it's hard to generalize about one brokerage vs. another, as they're always in a state of flux.
  • Holding non-Vanguard funds at Vanguard or Schwab
    Vanguard has a good deal on availability of Pimco's cheapest institutional shares (I as opposed to I-3). That was the only semi-regret I had when I moved out of Vanguard several years back.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    @Crash, yes and no. Someone can do pretty well with minimal changes. I held PIMIX about 7-8 years. I held one HY Muni for 3 years. In the last several years I invested mostly in HY Munis + special securitized bond within Multi/NonTrad.
    So, I babysit it because I love it and it works pretty well but someone can make 1-2 changes annually and still do well. Many have no problem trading stocks/ETF/CEFs many times annually but somehow it can't be done with bonds or believe that bonds have only one category.
    Bonds are the true simple mainstream ballast to stocks and when you go deeper into several bond categories you will find they can do even more and have different correlation too.
    Sure, I used to be many years in stock funds at 85-100% but as I got older and especially in retirement I learned a lot more about bonds.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    My usual comments:
    Not all bonds are higher-rated bonds. Bonds have several unique categories with different ballast, volatility and market conditions.
    Treasuries are a great ballast but terrible in rising rates. Bank loans are much better in rising rates. Munis are not as "safe" as treasuries but behave differently + give you Fed free tax. HY Munis is another option. Several Leveraged CEFs have similar risk/reward to stocks. Then you have Multi sectors funds where the managers MAY maneuver market condition better. So why all/most analysts/articles talk about treasuries is beyond me.
    On the other hand stocks globally are correlated a lot more.
    Many retirees I know who have enough, including me, don't care as much about performance as they care about volatility.
    So, it depends on what you want to achieve and your style/goals. My portfolio is mostly bonds all the time except quick stocks/CEFs trading, something like 10/90. My portfolio performance in the last 3 years exceeded our need by 3 times with SD=2.42. I never lost more than 1% from any last top for at least 3-4 years.
    Easy example: for 6 months...VBTLX(US Index) lost -2.3%...NVHAX(HY Muni shorter term) +7.55%...NHMAX(HY Muni longer term) +8.8%.
    Bottom line: when someone tells you bonds are bad, they obviously don't know enough about bonds.
  • Holding non-Vanguard funds at Vanguard or Schwab
    I am with both TDA and Vanguard for many years. Assuming TDA NTF funds will also be available at Charles Schwab, it is better than Vanguard as far as funds availability, especially NTF funds. For example, Artisan funds are TF funds at Vanguard, whereas they are NTF at TDA.
    Of course, I hear the argument TF does not make much difference if you have a large portfolio and do not make changes to your asset allocation very frequently.
  • God Told Me to Put Money into Hertz - WSJ
    Many small investors are beating Wall Street pros at their own game.
    “A basket of stocks favored by individuals has outperformed the broader market since March of last year, according to Vanda Research. This group, which includes behemoths like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. alongside electric-vehicle maker NIO Inc. and digital-payments company Square Inc., has gained 68% since the beginning of March 2020 through Monday, far outpacing the S&P 500’s roughly 36% climb.
    “And meme stocks popular with individual investors have been on a tear again. Shares of movie-theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped 36% Thursday, continuing a string of double-digit gains that pushed them to $26.52, their highest close in four years. The recent rally in AMC shares has catapulted them above levels recorded during the initial retail-driven frenzy in GameStop Corp. and other stocks this January. On Thursday, AMC was the most actively-traded stock in the U.S. market, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
    GameStop has advanced 46% this month, far outpacing the S&P 500’s gain of 0.5%. Shares of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. have nearly tripled in May. Short sellers who bet against GameStop, Hertz and AMC—a group targeted by many smaller investors who have favored these stocks—have lost almost $9 billion this year, according to data provider S3 Partners.”

    The Wall Street Journal - May 28. 2021
  • Advisor Expectations/Experiences
    A somewhat dated piece from The Finance Buff, reiterating what I wrote above - you're not getting advice from these assigned reps or assigned teams.
    https://thefinancebuff.com/vanguard-fidelity-large-account.html
    don’t mistake the Flagship rep [now the Flagship "team"] for an advisor. The Flagship rep is still in the customer service role. If you need advice, ask the Flagship rep to arrange a meeting with an advisor.
    And from a related Finance Buff piece:
    Customer service reps are in an execution role. If you want to do X, they will do X for you. ... Ask them whether they offer X or how to do X at that institution. Research and decide on your own whether you can or should do X.
    https://thefinancebuff.com/customer-service-questions.html
    At the end of the day, they're just doing what salespeople are supposed to do: present product and services, walk the customer through the process of getting those services, and above all Keep the Customer Satisfied. How well they do that is another question.

    I do not know what you would get if you signed up for "management services" for a fee.
    I do. I have a relative who had an Investment Advisory Program account (wrap fee, discretionary) with TIAA for a few years, and moved it to Vanguard PAS (also wrap fee, discretionary) upon my recommendation.
    At TIAA (with a much higher fee) this person worked with an individual adviser. Based on the relative's assets and future plans, the adviser worked up a plan for investing, for managing a mix of IRAs, taxable accounts, inherited assets, etc., for drawing how much from which accounts in what sequence, etc. A good customer-facing adviser.
    Actual investment decisions and execution were handed off to a back end team that traded mutual funds and ETFs somewhat frenetically. So much so that they "harvested" a loss in the taxable account that they irretrievably washed out with a replacement purchase in an IRA. The antithesis of personalization.
    In contrast, Vanguard PAS preserves non-Vanguard assets if they have high unrealized gains, and it offers some flexibility in keeping them regardless. The market swoon was an opportunity to move some of those into Vanguard funds without taking a tax hit. That's when the portfolio became somewhat more "cookie-cutter". The service even allows a fair amount of tweaking by the customer (e.g. expressing a preference for actively managed funds or more corporate bonds or ...), but then why have a discretionary account?
    They review and discuss the portfolio with the customer quarterly and on-demand as the customer's needs change. They keep customers informed of any upcoming changes in the program. When my relative's adviser decided to take another position within Vanguard (it was something he was interested in doing and the opportunity opened up), he contacted my relative.
    If you're interested in what you would get if you signed up for "management services" for a fee, it's all laid out in detail in the Vanguard Personal Advisor Services Brochure
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/vpabroc.pdf
  • Advisor Expectations/Experiences
    Over the years the responses of the "discount" brokers have gotten more and more generic. This is especially true at Vanguard where 15 years ago I had one specific person who I got to know well. However, Vanguard replaced him twice without notifying me, and now I just get a "team" that is faceless. Their website is more and more difficult to use for self directed investments. They clearly want everyone to use their funds in cookie cutter allocations. I do not know what you would get if you signed up for "management services" for a fee.
    My advisor at Schwab is still there and a nice guy who helps with stuff, although I am not on a fee basis with him. Still even there I am usually shunted off to an unknown in Orlando
    My parents used a full service broker at Morgan Stanley who I have gotten to know well. He will still sell you stocks on a large commission ( $150 to$200) but really would rather sign you up for their manged portfolios ( chosen by a committee) at 1% a year, and then review it with you a couple of times a year. I notice he is rarely in the office after 3 PM.
    Even people at firms with minimum account requirements of $5,000,000, tell me they have had portfolios changed from individual stocks chosen by their manager, to cookie cutter allocations, chosen by a committee.
    On the other hand my sister has had her new broker at Morgan Stanley walk though all of her accounts with her, help her combine them all into one with her new inheritance, and then will sit down with her to go over her options. I do not think this broker is a novice, and I assume she is running a fair amount of money overall, but the fact she will go to such lengths for a new client is impressive.
    I guess like most professions, there are many people who try hard to do a good job, although the structure of the industry is working against them.
  • Why a ‘crushing’ day for Big Oil represents a watershed moment in the climate battle
    Returns on energy stocks have sucked for many years, and I suspect that investor concerns about climate change has accounted for some of the poor performance. Although many conservatives consider climate change a hoax, the scientific data doesn’t support their views. And when their money is at stake, apparently many investors are paying attention to the science.
  • Canadian Banks (On Victoria Day in the East, already.)
    From CBC. Conclusion:
    "...rising fees, while evidently annoying, are of small economic consequence."
    .........But not after years and years of cuts in service and constantly rising fees, to my mind.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-pandemic-profits-pittis-1.6040739
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Amazon is buying Bonds (James that is.) Story
    I like some types of bond (funds) in this wild environment. Risk assets climbing to the sky. Bonds will hold some water for you should most everything else go to hell in a hand basket. Who knows? Depends on your age, risk tolerance and what else you happen to own. Be careful with the BBB and lower grade paper. OK to own some and to speculate in the shorter end (1-2 years) I think. Anything out 3+ years go with the highest quality you can get. Don’t plan on getting rich. You won’t with bonds today. But might make a nice life raft if waters turn violent..
  • De-accumulation phase
    Thank you David, I have few years to figure out several options.
  • Recommendations for new fund house?
    Whatever else, must protect cash position from the 60-day STT fee. Maintaining the cash allocation in their cash management account would work, as they exempt money markets from that fee. BTW - Is there a ticker symbol for the cash fund at Fido (where my liquidated assets from TRP should land)?
    The .44 YTD loss would be least of my worries. Essentially, it attempts to track an index. Might be that it’s avoiding the overvalued TIPS market.
    If your concern is to be able to withdraw cash quickly, be aware that ETFs have two-day settlement periods, during which time the cash value must stay in the account. (A margin account could float the money for a day if that's really critical.)
    Cash in your core account or in another Fidelity MMF is available for withdrawal "immediately" (don't recall whether that's literal or end of day since even MMF shares must be sold). Cash pulled from an internet bank is usually available within a day, though you're advised it could take longer.
    I mention internet banks again because the shorter the trigger, the more important low volatility/preservation of capital becomes.
    "Track an index" IMHO doesn't say much without examining the index. This index is untested, dynamic, and proprietary. Its objective is to improve "both returns and risk ... relative to traditional U.S. IG floating rate note indices." It invests in a mix of "U.S. corporate floating rate notes with less than 5 years maturity and U.S. Treasury Notes with 7 to 10 years maturity." From its statutory prospectus. It's not avoiding TIPS because they're overvalued but because it can't invest in them.
    It's hard to find a reason to prefer FLDR to JPST. The latter has lower volatility (std dev 0.80 vs. 1.13 over the past year) resulting in better Sharpe ratio (2.54 vs. 1.61 over past year), smaller bid/ask spread (0.02% vs 0.06% median over past 30 days), longer history, similar ER (0.18% vs 0.15%). The smoother curve in the graph below is JPST.
    image
    You can invest in MMFs in any Fidelity brokerage account, it doesn't have to be the CMA account. The only advantage I can find to the CMA account is that it provides unlimited US ATM rebates on its debit card. AFAIK, all its other features are available in any brokerage account.
    EDIT:CMA accounts use a bank sweep as their core account. This is not available in other some other brokerage accounts.
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fdic.pdf
    The "ticker" for Fidelity Cash is FCASH. It is kept as a general obligation of Fidelity; in essence you are lending the cash to Fidelity, which can use it for general business purposes. It is one of three choices you have for your "core" (transaction/checking) account inside a taxable brokerage account. Catch gave the tickers for the other options.
    https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fidelity-funds/money-market-funds-fcash

    On another note, I hadn’t realized that a TIK “insulates” your fund’s value during the process so that the holding neither gains nor looses value. Dug that up this morning. Casts a different light on everything.
    You can think of "transfer in kind" as picking up the fund shares (electronically) at one institution and transporting them to the other. So you can gain or lose value in transit, since you always retain "real" ownership of your shares.
  • Advisor Expectations/Experiences
    "she was in touch with her Fido advisor ... He mentioned dollar cost averaging, Fido’s wealth management service and separately managed accounts, outside advisors Fido works with, and tax-loss harvesting. It was all very generic ..."
    There's a popular perception that people you talk with for free are "advisors". Even with a large amount of assets at an institution, that's rarely the case. The people one talks with, e.g. "Private Client Advisors", are sales people. They're there to match you with for-pay services, and to give you warm fuzzy feelings about keeping your money with them. As you observed, it is all very generic.
    On Fidelity's site I can no longer readily find the phrase "Private Client Advisor" or much of anything that suggests one's free investment "team" or lead provides advice.
    For the most part the only place you'll find "advisor" mentioned is in the context of pay for service. See this Fidelity page on "How we can work together". No mention of advisor under DIY or its pure robo offering (Fidelity Go).
    When you get to the next fee level (Fidelity® Personalized Planning & Advice), you find "1-on-1 financial coaching calls with Fidelity advisors". Wealth Management, the next fee level up, brings you "a dedicated Fidelity advisor". And finally for those with over $2M at Fidelity and willing to pay for the services, there's Private Wealth Management, with "a dedicated Wealth Management Advisor and team of specialists".
    "Am I expecting too much...?"
    Yes.
    Years ago, Vanguard would provide customers with enough AUM a free financial plan prepared by a CFP. That's been gone for years. These days, TANSTAAFL.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    I considered PIMIX a few years ago but didn't invest in the fund.
    For many years, Pimco Income Fund delivered excellent returns with muted volatility.
    The fund's managers made shrewd investments in legacy, non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) after the Global Financial Crisis.
    Trailing 5 Yr. and 10 Yr. returns for PIMIX were in the top 1% of the Multisector Bond category as of 10/31/17.
    The total AUM dedicated to vehicles using the same strategy, $124 B as of March 2017, gave me pause.
    It would be difficult for Pimco Income Fund to maintain meaningful exposure to legacy, non-agency RMBS while the supply of these securities was decreasing in the future.
    I also did not appreciate that Pimco has never closed a fund (to my knowledge) due to excessive AUM.
    This is not a very shareholder-friendly stance in my opinion.
    Having said that, Dan Ivascyn and Alfred Murata are renowned and talented managers.
    Pimco is widely respected and it is a very well-resourced firm.
    I still believe PIMIX is a decent fund but doubt the stellar performance of the past will be replicated.
  • Advisor Expectations/Experiences
    Just wanted to get this learned community’s input on our situation.
    A couple years ago, due to a number of fortuitous events, Mrs. Ruffles acquired a significant amount of cash that she parked at Fido for convenience’s sake. Due to the overheated markets, she’s been reluctant to invest it for fear of incurring a substantial loss. A much more significant amount of funds is fully invested in her retirement accounts here and elsewhere. Her salary more than covers her annual expenses.
    When she first acquired her cash, she was in touch with her Fido advisor but decided it was better to do nothing than rush into something. The advisor recently reached out to her so we had a teleconference with him. We thought he might have some ideas but he kept expecting us to drive the conversation.
    I mentioned that it wasn’t imperative to invest all the cash right away due to her other investments and that, if she were to invest, our concerns included downside protection and tax minimization. He mentioned dollar cost averaging, Fido’s wealth management service and separately managed accounts, outside advisors Fido works with, and tax-loss harvesting.
    It was all very generic so I asked that he forward us more details on some of the strategies he mentioned. In response, he emailed us links to the website pages on wealth management services, managed accounts, and planning services - nothing I hadn’t seen before. To say the least, we were both underwhelmed.
    I responded asking for more details (performance, risk, costs, etc.) on the strategies he mentioned so that we could make some informed decisions. After two days, crickets - not even a simple acknowledgement.
    Am I expecting too much or should this be in the advisor’s wheelhouse? What have others experienced in working with advisors at Fido and other brokers?
    *************
    Somehow, over the years, I'd already half-way expected the kind of "service" you've received. A ONE-TIME in-person visit to a brick-and-mortar office with a BofA-Merrill Lynch guy was very helpful to me in evaluating my holdings at the time, many yeas ago. Since my friend was this guy's client, my friend asked if the fellow couldn't find time to see me for an hour. He did it for me at no charge. He was attentive, sharp, listened a good deal. But my pot was not very big. He offered to take on the job of managing my investments via one of his associates in the office. But only if I could get it up to $100k. I was not far away from that figure, back then. He offered to follow up with fund recommendations, and he did, via email. He wanted to run them past me, and I could see that they would have been fitting, but not my choices..... I guess I just needed to keep the control. I use some personal filters that others just would never bother with. So, the meeting was valuable, confirming that I had not already run my money off a cliff into oblivion, and so staying the course was in order. I was very grateful to him for his time, and told him so. .....I DO think that not rushing to do something, anything--- is a GREAT idea. And yes, I'd have expected more. But then, always and immediately, I must remind myself these days that wherever I turn, substantive communication is never the goal. Otherwise, we'd not always hear a RECORDING telling us our call is important. And people who are supposed to be of service to us would actually be able to think and communicate, not just send hyperlinks to webpages. .....Just this morning, I played my part, attempting to get in touch with those for whom actual communication is not a priority. But of course, what can you expect from their end? They've shown their hand already. I don't really matter to them. No one does, unless you happen to get lucky and catch the call at THEIR convenience.
  • Advisor Expectations/Experiences
    This is such a tough question to answer given the gracious but limited info provided. There are so many variables to consider. It's interesting that Mrs. acquired a significant amount recently but is afraid to "risk" this even though a more significant amount is already invested in retirement accounts. One would think that if it was a large amount but an amount much less than already invested - one would be less fearful on the risk part. The bigger question IMHO is what is happening in the next 5-10 years. Is there an expectation to draw from the retirement accounts? When you say "parked" - do you mean in a money market or an S&P 500 Index account? If you explained that tax minimization and downside protection was most important to you (curious) - then it makes sense that tax loss harvesting and dca would be entertained.
    All that said, your advisor should consider your entire portfolio and make recommendations on this new $ given the whole strategy/plan. They should provide you with an in depth "education" of WHY... so that you may make an informed decision. They should educate you so that you are well informed to decide. They should not tell you what you should do. I have had very positive experiences with Fid advisors over the years. But, like Dentists and Doctors, all have a different manner... you just have to find the right one that is a partner and explains and is patient. If someone sends you web links without a thoughtful conversation/explanation etc. - then you must move on to another advisor. IMHO. Hope this is helpful.
  • De-accumulation phase
    I set up a separate account (tax deferred) for withdrawals. It has 3-4 years needed income. It contains low risk mutual funds and ETFs including 1 year of income in the Schwab MM. My plan is to keep replenishing it with my main IRA account in good times and waiting up to 3-4 years if the markets go south. I haven't had to use it yet because I still work part time. Just getting prepared. But I haven't given enough thought to your question.
    Your question is a good one since I will run into the same dilemma when replenishing the withdrawal bucket. I guess that makes it all the more imperative to keep the number of investments in the main IRA account, funds or ETFs, at minimum. That certainly would help in re-balancing. Looks like you have 10 funds to keep balanced which is a reasonable portfolio #.
    One consideration for me, my IRA money is split 50/50 between the Schwab Intelligent Portfolio and what I call my self-managed account. Withdrawals from the IP get re-balanced automatically. That would be the easy option for me.
    Hope more people respond with what they do so I can learn along with you.