Thanks for the chart. You can see that even for a dip below the 200 MA it's only about a 2.5% dip in the NAV, and with the dividend yield above 4% even at today's elevated price, risk seems reasonable. I do have "trial" initial limit order in at slightly below the current 200 MA.
Ditching the corporate funds is a little more involved since they are in Roth IRAs and it's a PITA to do direct transfers. (They always seem to find a way to reject the transfer. Once it was because my middle initial didn't have a period after it, so I needed a notarized change of name document.) I do my one 60-day transfer a year, just to flush out the stragglers, this years it's probably going to be USAIX since it's my smallest holding and I'm not overwhelmed with the move to Victory.

My corporate bond funds (DODIX Dodge and Cox Income, USAIX USAA Income, etc) are taking the expected nose dive, but some junk and preferred ETF's I've been keeping an eye on (USHY iShare High Yield, PEF iShares Preferred, etc) have gone down a lot less. What's up with this? Flight to better income yields? A delayed effect because the duration of the junk bond funds is shorter than the bond funds?
The junk bond funds have twice the yield of the corporate bond funds and their alphas are higher and betas are lower, although that's to some extent apples and oranges. I don't think there's as much risk for the junk bond market as there was the last few years, the losers have been flushed out, everyone's almost done with their dodgy restructuring deals, and the main sectors in that area, energy and real estate, seem to be on the rebound.
Any ideas? I'm intrigued and a little suspicious of these funds.

Given that those 4 items have generally been true for most of the last 40+ years, they're just background noise at this time. I suppose one could get into the weeds of the ebb and flow of those 4 items and discern whether there is any pattern but I doubt that exercise would reveal a signal that can be exploited.

Direct real estate fund CPREX is an interval-fund, a special type of unlisted fund that can be bought from brokers any time, but redemptions are limited.
For CPREX, that redemption is up to 5% per quarter at NAV (so, may take 20 quarters (5 years) to get completely out). There are about 3 dozen such interval-funds that are suitable for illiquid securities. These are sort of in between ETFs and CEFs. Some describe them as roach-motels.

Thanks. Most interesting. I wondered about CPREX as Lipper couldn’t locate it. From what I could find, there’s a $1,000,000 minimum. Of all the mentioned funds (I already own GLFOX) this one looked interesting. Generally I won’t open a new position in anything that’s up 20-30% in a year’s time. Prefer to buy low and get paid to wait. I suspect, that like real estate funds generally, CPREX has already seen a nice run up - hence off my radar.
PS - a link to its 1, 3, 5 year performance would be appreciated.

Direct real estate fund CPREX is an interval-fund, a special type of unlisted fund that can be bought from brokers any time, but redemptions are limited. For CPREX, that redemption is up to 5% per quarter at NAV (so, may take 20 quarters (5 years) to get completely out).
There are about 3 dozen such interval-funds that are suitable for illiquid securities. These are sort of in between ETFs and CEFs. Some describe them as roach-motels.

This is a fascinating and lengthy look at the markets past and present. I highly encourage folks to obtain and read the full text. While I quote a few lines from different participants, realize each had a unique point of view. And, sometimes those viewpoints diverged sharply.
Participants:
Todd Ahlsten - Parnassus
Rupal Bhansali - Ariel
Scott Black - Delphi
Abby Cohen - Columbia Univ.
Sonal Desai - Franklin Templeton
Henry Ellenbogen - Durable Capital
Mario Gabelli - Gamco
David Giroux - T. Rowe Price
William Priest - Epoch
Meryl Witmer - Eagle
Quotable Quotes:
Cohen: “Unlike in recent years past, we will see that diversification, stock selection, and risk control matter.” She terms 2022 “the revenge of the nerds”.
Bhansali: “My (year-end) forecast implies a double-digit decline in U.S. markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) …”
Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
Giroux: “I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”
Witmer: “What has been noticeable in the past year is extreme volatility in individual stocks.”
Witmer: “If the music stops and crypto tanks, there could be a contagion into the stock market. It could set up a good buying opportunity.”
Black: “The NTF craze in the art market is reaching the heights of delirium.”
Black: “I would avoid fixed income like the plague.”
Desai: “With TIPS, you end up taking on duration risk. If there is a selloff in Treasuries, TIPS won’t deliver …”
Priest: “There is also an existential political risk to the market around the question, ‘Does market efficiency require a democracy in order to operate optimally?’ “
Some of the funds mentioned favorably by various panelists at different points in the interview:
GLFOX, PAVE, EAPCX, SRLN, FRIAX, FEIFX, MPACX, CPREX (closed end)
From Barrons - January 17, 2022

TIPS are controversial. They have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates. Almost 25% of TIPS are held by the Fed, a price-insensitive buyer. And TIPS funds behave quite differently from individually held TIPS to maturity (well, other bonds do too, but TIPS more so than other bonds). There is also confusion on how the TIPS funds report 30-day SEC yield (some report only real 30-day yield, others add CPI to it).
True, I don't know of any allocation fund based on stocks and only TIPS, but there may be good reasons for that.
Many TDFs do include TIPS. Vanguard TDFs switched from IT-TIPS (too volatile) to ST-TIPS (to capture most of the inflation effects) years ago.

Continuing on …
It was a good article in Barron’s (By @LewisBraham) :) as Yogi mentions. The details are rather complex and I don’t understand it as well as @msf (above).
Anyone invested in short duration corporates must have noticed something “spooky” going on starting in mid March 2020. TRUBX, which I owned than, had been conservatively administered by TRP for years. Pegged at $10.00 it rarely budged - just a penny or two on rare occasions. But after the Covid-19 lockdowns & stock market fall began, it lost at least a dime very quickly - probably a bit more than that. And, it stayed down for a number of weeks afterward. A reflection of stress at the short end of the corporate bond ladder.
My take from a cursory reading of the Barron’s piece was that these “reforms” are mainly to reassure (institutional / corporate) investors that delaying or postponing redemptions will not “shut the gate” on them and make it harder to access their money down the road. It was this fear that led many to “rush” the funds and try to get out ahead of everyone else.

@bee ; "Do you find you spend your entire RMD or does some end up puddling in a taxable account?
At this time all of the RMD goes into taxable.
When I retired I left enough in cash to carry RMDs for a number of years. Thus no need to sell any equities in a down market to cover RMD's. That turned out NOT to be the right move as for the last 12 years Mr. Market has done very good !
We'll see what the next 12 years brings.
@yogibearbull : thanks for the new RMD table

I'll go with an ETF that did well for me last year and I see doing well again this year with rising rates and if energy continues to make up years of poor performance. Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund - DBC.

I would like to know how many active MFO's use a set withdrawal rate plus inflation adder or just take their required RMD's. I'd be of the later group. A simple life style compared to an active , keep up to the Jones . My auto will be do for collector plates in 3 years ! Hopefully the chips arrive in plentiful supplies so I can purchase a new vehicle.
Stay warm, Derf

Christine Benz's withdrawal suggestion (3%, rather than 4%)...3.3% to be precise... has a lot to do with future expectation of portfolio returns during the next 30 years. To me it really has more to do with future expectation over the next five years and next year, it will be about the next five years. In my 60's I am looking at a rolling five year withdrawal strategy when it come to retirement income from my retirement investments.
Retirement Income is more about providing an income floor rather than an income ceiling. If you spend some time prior to retirement determining your income floor (basic expenses) and than determine where you will derive this income from, you find yourself forming a pecking order of income sources.
Full time income will end and will need to be replaced with other sources of income such as - SS, pension, part time work, passive income from rental investments, investment income, etc.
Fine tune your basic expenses. You have the time (in retirement) to shop what things cost...this might help lower your income floor. Shop your monthly expenses (cable, phone, internet, insurances, etc.) for the best service at the best price. Shop those larger one-time purchases (a car, setting up your workshop, taking a vacation, etc.)
it was prudent to keep 3-6 months of emergency cash on hand in case work income got interrupted. In retirement, keep this same cash on hand for market interruptions or emergencies (such as unexpected health care costs).
If part of your income in retirement come from your investments, match the time horizon of your income need with the time horizon of the investment so you have a better chance of achieving your investment objective.
Equities need 5 - 15 years to smooth out the volatility inherit to its asset risk. If, in retirement you need some of your investments for income, you should have "a rolling 5 year income strategy" for some of your retirement money that is less risky... less volatile.
Using Christine's safe withdrawal rate (3.3% of your total investment portfolio) you can approximate what your can afford to spend and how much you should keep safely invested for withdrawal purposes to fund the next 3-5 years of withdrawals.
Would love to hear how others view this topic.

Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.

That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.

I hope those arguing against term limits for elected offices take note of your comment. Unfortunately, we citizens confuse ability to win elections with ability or even desire to govern.

Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.

That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.

Let’s start with the assumption that the individual investor designs a portfolio (allocation model) that meets his needs and which he or she deems appropriate for his or her situation. He or she decides X amount will be allocated to fixed income; X amount to equities; X amount to commodities or alternatives or hedge funds or whatever he or she decides.
Is it the view of @MikeM that the very investor who designed the portfolio to begin with is somehow engaging in risky or foolish behavior to alter, modify or embellish his original plan based on new information or perhaps a different “playing field” than on the day he drew that plan up?
Let’s say he had 50% nominally allocated to equities before a 30% market sell-off. Would the investor not be wise to increase his equity exposure - upping the allocation to 55 or 60% afterward? Or, in the case of extraordinarily narrow high yield credit spreads developing, would it not be prudent to shift some HY holdings into investment grade bonds or cash? Should deep value or EM stocks look cheap after years of underperformance, would you fault someone who had earlier avoided them for adding some to their portfolio?
There are allocation funds, as some have observed, who do this for you. That’s a good alternative. But these tend to have very large asset bases and need to deal with ever changing inflows and outflows . Changing allocations for them is a bit like changing course for an oil tanker. The individual investor is far more nimble. Not to say one approach is better than the other - just that they are different.

It appeared that international value funds are leading their growth counterparts this year. They trail growth style for over 10 years. Will they persist in the near term?

Sorry for asking. Your “Bad Moon rising” perked my interest.
Yep - 20 years is a long time.

@msf yes you raise some excellent points. I went through that same analysis that you describe above and evaluated both funds 2 years ago. Long term they both have similar track records. But MFAPX gets there with much less volatility. MIOPX actually held up quite well in the March 2020 selloff -- only dropping about 15% in comparison to 19% for its category. But things really turned south for MIOPX and other funds with large emerging markets exposure when China cracked down on its technology industry last year. I think you can trace its underperformance starting then. I might return to MFAPX at some point but am looking for more of a large cap blend. I find selecting an international fund to be quite difficult because they have underperformed the U.S. for so long. This year to date foreign value is doing quite well with funds like Dodge and Cox International up over 6% YTD but I wonder if this is a short term thing. Their long term track record is pretty poor. Again international is real conundrum.
@carew388 It's funny you mention MSFBX because that one has come up on my screens too. I really like that funds defensive posture with about 30% in consumer staples. Unfortunately it also has a 20% allocation to tech so if tech continues to get hit as I believe will happen -- you won't be safe in the fund. YAFFX is intriguing with a great long term track record -- also more of a global fund. It is one fund I'm looking at also. I think this is going to be a difficult year to make money though.

@hank
To be clear I never would make suggestions for anyone to do anything with their monies. I'm not qualified, don't know you, don't know anything about anything
That said, who says you have to be all in cash now until 20 years from now ..brk.b, doesn't seem like a bad place to hide out, I mentioned pvcmx and pmefx as places where I have some monies. Ibonds. CDC ETF maybe...is 2022 the year of hussy?
Just sharing my view is to be very careful as this might be the most dangerous time in the market since 08
Best
Baseball Fan

This will be a bit painful to do but I will be selling most of my position in MIOPX. I really like the manager -- Kristian Heugh. But there is too much downside risk in his portfolio.

If you like the manager and want to dial down the risk a bit, you could consider MFAPX. The difference between the MS summaries is that MIOPX includes emerging companies, while MFAPX is primarily focused on established companies.
Morgan Stanley MIOPX page
Morgan Stanley MFAPX page
Obviously they have a lot of overlap, but their figures are significantly different.
Portfolio Visualizer comparison
Close performance over 3, 5, 10 years (through year end 2021). A notable distinction is that from 2Q2020 on, MIOPX rose and fell faster. For example, YTD (2022), MIOPX dropped 9.23% and MFAPX dropped 2.83%. PV shows other significant differences (better figures are MAFPX):
std dev: 16.58% vs. 12.99%
max drawdown: 26.18% vs. 17.26%
Sharpe ratio: 0.77 vs. 1.00
Sortino ratio: 1.27 vs 1.71
As one might expect with its higher volatility MIOPX had a much better best year (55.06% vs. 44.18%) and a much worse worst year (down 12.36% vs down 5.48%).
According to M*, the best fit index for MIOPX is US Convertible Bonds!
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/ratings-risk.action?t=MIOPX
From inception through 2016 MIOPX tracked FISCX pretty closely. (MIOPX even returned less over this period). Then it became more volatile and returned more. But it wasn't until 2020 that it took off like a rocket. And then fell like a stone. In that same period, MFAPX also rose with MIOPX, but not as quickly and with much gentler spikes.