Why do you still own Bond Funds? hank: "I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble."
Depends on what kind of investor you are. Equity oriented investors, tend to only think of bonds as "ballast" instruments, focusing on treasuries and investment grade options. Bond oriented investors, are aware that there are a wide variety of bond oefs, that perform differently in different environments. Funds like PIMIX and DBLTX were birthed in the ashes of the 2008 crash, purchased nonagency mortgages that were out of favor, and over the following decade of equity bull market performance, those junky bond oefs became hugely popular, replacing CDs for income flow, and making great total return, without the volatility of equities.
I am not a great trader, but I have found that bond oefs move slowly enough that I can establish sell points for bond oefs, and easily switch to other bond oefs, in other categories, and still make a nice, lower stress, total return result. I did that in March 2020, when I sold my junkier bond oefs (with a small loss after hitting my sell point criteria), replaced them with some safe harbor bond oefs like GIBLX and BIMIX, and then when those junky bond oefs were once again performing well, I was able to switch back into funds like DHEAX and SEMMX, and make a nice total return. I am beyond my youthful days of heavy equity oriented investing, but have found my bond oef stage in retirement, provides a very nice total return result, allowing me to preserve what I have accumulated, and still grow the principal each year, even with the required RMD harvesting.
I am 73 years old, in retirement, with no company pensions to provide me a safety net. My preservation of principal objectives, with modest total return, fits my current investing objectives and needs. I am quite content making 4% to 6% annual total return, with minimal volatility and stress, using bond oefs.
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? BTW, Fidelity has added a series of zero expense index funds in recent years, and its regular classes of index funds typically have expenses as low as or lower than comparable ETFs. The only advantage of ETFs in these cases would be the potential ability to get better prices for sales or buys during the day rather than end-of-day prices. There are no guarantees that one could actually achieve better trade prices. To me, the advantage of being able to perform direct transfers of money between various Fidelity funds is a more important benefit. That way you don’t have to sell shares in a fund or ETF one day and then wait at least another day to reinvest.
I have invested in Fidelity’s zero expense total market fund (FZROX) since near its inception for our taxable savings. It’s returns have matched comparable funds and ETFs with no added expenses and it’s very tax efficient.
Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term Good question. I’m not seeing anything near term. I prefer to call those “spec plays” anyway. As to “tactical” plays, I scale in or out slowly over months or years. So it’s a matter of portfolio weight or emphasis. I’ve lightened up a bit on the commodities / NR area just because it’s done so well. I’ll continue to lighten up there in “smigits”, but like the area too well to abandon it. BTW, I’ve plugged in PRELX as an (unlikely) substitute inside my real assets sleeve. And it’s beginning to move. A less dicey play on inflation than pure commodities.
I’m looking at what to add at Fido when I have some money there. Kinda like their utilities fund, FSUTX, which would replace some of my commodities exposure. Last evening I went back and re-read David Geroux’s December 2020 Fund Report for PRWCX. In it he makes a compelling case for utilities (which constituted 10% of his holdings at the time). I’m more convinced after reading that than ever. A real long-shot is Fido’s less than 2 year old Infrastructure fund FNSTX. At only 50 mil AUM, should it pop - you’d make out like a bandit. It’s mostly outside the U.S. Heavily in Italy and Spain for reasons unclear. (Maybe they like olives & wine?) However, that’s a pretty far-fetched gamble. It could just as easily go the other way.
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? OK, I’ll give an example of why I chose a mutual fund over a comparable ETF. For small cap exposure in my IRA, I had used a small cap index fund, DISSX, with an expense ratio of 0.50% for many years. Realizing that I could get slightly better returns from IJR, which follows the same index with an ER of 0.06%, I looked into switching. However, I then discovered that Fidelity has a small cap index fund (FSSNX) with an ER of 0.025% and even better returns, so I switched to it. So, in this case, the Fidelity index mutual fund had lower expenses than a comparable ETF. If your a stickler, iShares has an ETF that follows the Russell 2000, the same as FSSNX, also with a higher ER.
Other than the lower ER, I can do same-day transfers of money between FSSNX and other Fidelity funds, which is a big advantage to me, since many of the other funds in my IRA are with Fidelity.
property/home prices Putting my home of 26 years in the burbs of CHI on the market next week...spent the past several weeks, cleaning, fixing, prepping...every few weeks I wait the prices in the neighborhood go up by $10k....we'll see what happens. Going with fixed fee listing, not gonna pay a realtor high 4, low 5 digits to do a few days work as the homes sell so fast. No inventory is right unless you want to buy a home for $1.5MM+, then plenty to choose from as many north shore burbs types flee the tax man of Illinois and no reason to go into downtown CHI town, crime out of control, way out of control, no thank you to the cook county state's attorney who does not do her job...you could spin whatever narrative you want, just go into the city and drive around. Drug abuse rampant. Criminal justice reform legitamcy has a point but after that point the narrative is one thing, reality is another.
Never beeen to Traverse City, been to Pentwater, South Haven...all real nice places, nice folks, looking forward to getting up to TC later this year!
Seems you get that...meaning the exporting of inflation...wealthy new yorkers sell their condo, buy somewhere else with half the money and have the other half to spend, invest etc. Meanwhile locals like the home appreciation but then can't afford the increase in tax assessments. Lot of trouble with affordable housing all across this country. Thank you to the Fed and CB...keeping interest rates too low, debasing our currency...increasing inequality across the board...
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan
Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term Typically, I'm buy and hold and have made few changes in my IRA's in past 5-7 years. I like to be a little more aggresive/strategic with a % of my 401k. I purchased WOOD and GLTR in January...Previous small positions were in ARKK, FM, SLV and GLD.
Any ideas you have just for sharing purposes...
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? FLPSX is about 15% of my Rollover IRA.
I've let it ride since August 2011.
The total gain in a little less than 11 years is 304%.
It's been one of my "invest and don't mess with it" positions.
Ditto for FDCAX (up 421% in the same time period).
David