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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    @JonGaltlll: As much as I like ARTYX, I have 10% of my IRA already in there. Figured I would try a pure EM fund. MDDCX has good short term results after change in managers a couple years ago. ARTYX is incredible and hope it keeps going.
  • Roth IRA for my grandson
    I did not use Roth. I went with Trad. IRA. It has worked out nicely--- apart from the $5,000 in non-deductible contributions I made--- since in those years, I owed no tax to deduct the contributions against. (Who would have ever dreamed?) But my tax guy is great. Eventually, we WILL get back that $$$, non-taxable. I'm not in a hurry. Our present living circumstances are rather comfortable.
  • T Rowe Price
    By now TRP should able fully geared to work from home. Customer support can be done with broadband connection. That how IT support is being done.
    I performed asset transfer online at Fidelity last week and it was completed in 5 days. As I recall, TRP requires signed paper forms several years ago. If that is the case, it is likely sitting in their Maryland office.
    I'm not saying they aren't fully geared to work from home. That I'm sure is true. However, the employees simply are not as engaged when working from home (some are, but I think it'd be naïve to think all employees are just as productive in a WFH environment). If you ask any employer how the WFH experience has been, of course they are going to say it's been relatively seamless and the team just as efficient, however, that is for optics. It is not what is actually occurring for many organizations.
  • T Rowe Price
    @bee, I have to do a similar IRA transfer with TRP several years ago and it took 4 weeks to complete. They follow all the rules and paper forms were required instead of electronically as in Fidelity. Don't know if this changed recently. Nothing wrong with their practice but TRP is being careful. Vanguard requires paper forms too but initial transfer request is done online and turnaround time is 2 weeks.
    COVID situation is making many business operating from home. They could have operate split shifts to reduce worker density, especially their call centers. Wonder if there are other phone # you can call?
  • Jim Cramer: We Keep Aiming Higher ... and Higher
    Agree. Bucket approach works well to ensure living expense for near term, 3-5 years. Shifting the gains from equity funds to the balanced funds make a solid approach in this low yield environment.
  • Jim Cramer: We Keep Aiming Higher ... and Higher
    One gut check for investing in up markets is to reference your present portfolio value with different draw downs scenarios (in percentages) and the potential recovery time (in months/years)
    S&P 500 data since WWII:
    Here are a few charts to help illustrate my point (averaged 14% drop over 8 months)...frequency (33% of the time):
    Corrections:
    image
    Bear Markets (averaged over a 32% drop over 3 years 2months)...frequency (20% of the time):
    image
    Another view of drops from S&P 500 Highs and the subsequent time to reach new highs:
    image
    Since WWII the market has either corrected (14%) or fell into a bear market (over 30%) 38 times over the last 75 years or about half the time.
    Also, a 14% loss (correction) requires a 16.25% gain to break even from that correction. A 33% loss (bear market loss) requires a 49.25% gain to break even.
    At these market levels ask yourself a few questions:
    Short term:
    - Do I have debt that I could pay off with some of these gains (prior to a correction)?
    - Do I have large one time payments (weddings, tuition, house projects, vacations, etc) that could be funded by reallocating some of your market gains to cash with some of these gains.
    Long term:
    - For young, long term investors, prepare yourself emotionally for sell offs of 14% - 35% at least every other year. Continue adding to your retirement (investment) by dollar cost averaging in both up and down markets.
    For me...and
    - For retirees using their portfolio for income, try to position 3-5 years of your income needs in less volatile investments.
    I am using VFISX and VWINX for this propose in retirement. In years where the market returns are better than VWINX, I reallocate some of these gains into VFISX & VWINX. I also may take yearly income from these funds in years when they far outperform.
    When the market sells off I first draw from VFISX, then VWINX. These two funds help me navigate yearly income withdrawals during market downturns while the rest of my portfolio waits for a recovery.
    Reference:
    heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get
  • James Kieffer no longer associated with Artisan Mid Cap Value and Value Funds
    What looks to be the same piece is on www.inter-empresarial.com. My security software is blocking access. Rather than override, one can look at the Google cache.
    Here's a Google search to get you there. Be advised that the same security software blocks some of the content on the cached page. But the text is readable.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=Jim+Kieffer+citywire+site:inter-empresarial.com
    After all that work, it doesn't add any info:
    ‘After 23 years at Artisan and greater than three a long time within the funding enterprise, Jim Kieffer is stepping again from day-to-day portfolio administration,’ stated a spokeswoman for Artisan. ‘Jim will stay a managing director and an energetic member of the crew.’
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    BCSVX is an interesting share. One I will add to my watch list. This is probably too much of a generalization but... Emerging Markets is a riskier area. Now add Small Cap to it... a bit more risky. So, when I look at 10 plus years of returns on these funds it seems like none of them beat the S&P 500 and they all have a high Ulcer and low Martin and many have high ER. So, why do I own some FPADX? I will compare to FSEAX and BCSVX and perhaps transfer to one of those or out of EM completely myself. I guess I'm repeating what Baseball Fan said above.
  • James Kieffer no longer associated with Artisan Mid Cap Value and Value Funds
    They'll probably be forming their own shop.
    Perhaps ultimately, but "Jim Kieffer ... will remain part of the investment team for the time being, working as an analyst, advisor, and mentor."
    (M* Analyst Note for ARTQX.)
    This contrasts with the simultaneous announcement at ARTGX that Justin Bandy is leaving immediately. Perhaps the difference is that Kieffer is a lead manager while Bandy had recently been added to ARTGX and this was his first managing assignment.
    The new M* quote page for funds presents the inflows and outflows graphically. ARTQX had major outflows in 2013-2015 but since then flows have been pretty quiescent, especially in 2020. ARTLX shows a similar pattern, though its major outflows were in 2015-2016.
    It is reasonable to suggest that ARTGX has not fared well against its world fund peers because that category includes blend and growth as well as value funds. But ARTQX has been lagging its domestic value peers (2* over the past three years). ARTLX has been running hot and cold (four bottom decile years and three top decile years over the past decade).
  • T Rowe Price
    By now TRP should able fully geared to work from home. Customer support can be done with broadband connection. That how IT support is being done.
    I performed asset transfer online at Fidelity last week and it was completed in 5 days. As I recall, TRP requires signed paper forms several years ago. If that is the case, it is likely sitting in their Maryland office.
  • James Kieffer no longer associated with Artisan Mid Cap Value and Value Funds
    Value investing has been out of favor in recent years and Artisan funds are no acception as their domestic and overseas value funds lag their growth counterparts. Kieffer has been managing for quite awhile. Is the AUM dropping quickly? Trying to get more info on his departure along with the other manager from Global Value fund.
  • My basic screen. What's yours?
    Hi Jon, I would look at expense ratio. You can buy the NASDAQ 100 cheaper than RYOCX. Turnover on the Fidelity fund is higher than I like. Are they that smart?
    I would also look at the structure of the fund family. I lean against publicly traded companies. I would look at how much the managers are putting into the fund. And then I would look at the over-all success rate of the family. Is the particular fund a one-off? Is it out of their typical area of expertise?
    I'm assuming you have read their documentation. So you have a solid grip on their investing thesis. And it makes sense to you at the moment.
    Not all of those factors can be determined from MFO premium.
    Good luck
    I hope I'm posting this question in the right discussion. Here goes...
    Using Quick Search criteria:
    Category – Large-Cap Growth
    MFO Rating – 4-5 Above Average
    Display Period – 10 years
    I picked 3 random funds in the top APR
    FBGRX = 4 MFO Risk, 4 MFO Rating, 4.8 Ulcer, 3.91 Martin, -17.2 MAXDD, ER .79
    RYOCX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFO Rating, 4.1 Ulcer, 4.54 Martin, -17.4 MAXDD, ER 1.38
    LCGFX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFOR Rating, 4.0 Ulcer, 4.24 Martin, -17.6 MAXDD, ER .65
    All 3 of these funds apr is between 17.9 and 19.4. The criteria I listed above is very close to one another except perhaps for the ER in RYOCX. So, how would you go about using MFO to pick the best 1 of the 3. What other criteria is absolutely critical to you within MFO Premium to select the best fund in the category?
    Notice that I chose Large Cap Growth on purpose. I’m just trying to understand how I will use MFO premium and what criteria you all use from it. @Sven just pointed out that the Asset Correlation is important as I'm trying to refine my portfolio to be balanced and diversified. Asset correlation is contained in premium per sven.
  • Port Viz
    In Backtest Porfolio Allocation
    If show Income = Y and Reinvest Div = N, then see dividend income for multiple years under Exposure tab starting "Return Contribution includes $XX cash disty from dividends that were not reinvested".
    Great new feature. You can mix/match a portfolio of tickers. You no longer have to add each month up separately over the desired timeframe.
  • My basic screen. What's yours?
    I hope I'm posting this question in the right discussion. Here goes...
    Using Quick Search criteria:
    Category – Large-Cap Growth
    MFO Rating – 4-5 Above Average
    Display Period – 10 years
    I picked 3 random funds in the top APR
    FBGRX = 4 MFO Risk, 4 MFO Rating, 4.8 Ulcer, 3.91 Martin, -17.2 MAXDD, ER .79
    RYOCX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFO Rating, 4.1 Ulcer, 4.54 Martin, -17.4 MAXDD, ER 1.38
    LCGFX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFOR Rating, 4.0 Ulcer, 4.24 Martin, -17.6 MAXDD, ER .65
    All 3 of these funds apr is between 17.9 and 19.4. The criteria I listed above is very close to one another except perhaps for the ER in RYOCX. So, how would you go about using MFO to pick the best 1 of the 3. What other criteria is absolutely critical to you within MFO Premium to select the best fund in the category?
    Notice that I chose Large Cap Growth on purpose. I’m just trying to understand how I will use MFO premium and what criteria you all use from it. @Sven just pointed out that the Asset Correlation is important as I'm trying to refine my portfolio to be balanced and diversified. Asset correlation is contained in premium per sven.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @JonGaltIII True. I think 2021 will be even juicier. Looking out into the future, whenever things start to get back to "normal," I'd say the best way to reduce stimulus is gradually, over a pretty long period of time. ... Grantham sounds VERY smart to me, but for years, he has sounded dour and negative, as if a Big, Bad Thing is going to happen--- maybe soon or maybe later on.
    ..... Which is to say: we are "condemned" to live in the world of our own making. And what's new or noteworthy about THAT, eh?
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    @JonGatIII, Be mindful of the risk going forward. I survived both the tech bubble in 2000 and financial crisis in 2008 through my risk-adverse asset allocation. Even then it took years to fully recover the loss. It was a humbling experience and the black swan events will come again. It is a simple question of when and not if.
    2020 was an aberration event with the Fed being part of the market as @davfor pointeded out by buying stocks and bonds while reducing interest rates to near zero. Without the Fed the stock market would be still in red as the country is in deep recession. There are consequence to these Fed's action such as higher inflation, devaluation of USD, lower bond yields and etc. While you have the luxury of time, it is helpful to learn to become better informed investors.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    None, none, none.
    This perplexing scenario to witness I have discussed in the briefest of ways w the august LBraham and JWaggoner, meaning exchanging a few rueful wtf words, and they list the usual suspects, chiefly fomo w tina (per the ongoing likely course of interest rates, mentioned above, plus new and ongoing disaster relief payments).
    Plus a certain amount of rich-millennial behaviors (robinhood etc.).
    But these ain't insights, really, nor is saying that this time some of it 'really is different' (permanent shift in p/e).
    Also, these handful of factors many people have been pointing out for a long time.
    I have been out of equities 100% since May 11, when nobody saw a 30% rise still ahead, of course.
    Now. A real and significant dip takes us back to only say 28k Dow, a defined bear market back to only ~25k. It was not long ago at all that more than one big investment house were saying Well, okay, when we slump into the 26k area or whatever, it will be time to buy aggressively.
    Anyway, greed stamina, and fundamentals, being what they are, that ain't happening. There has been a lasting shift upward, and no 2000 or 2009 ahead. CWood at Ark and others like her have started to write about the chronic underestimation of technology.
    So ... upon dips I intend (he said) to put lots into VONV (p/e ~27) and CAPE and then sit tight (he said) for a few years. At ages 72 and 74 soon, we have enough years of cash for us to manage, looks like.
    All very vexing, and if I had stayed the course in May we could be sending out so many more donations!
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Warning: Investors need to understand their individual circumstances and their volatility and risk tolerances.....
    FWIW....Most of the time I just observe. Market timing is left to others. (2019 to 2020 were exceptions to this observer mind set while a new secondary investment portfolio was being established.)
    These are just a few somewhat random thoughts and opinions as 2021 begins from a generalist investor who typically acts with multi-year investment time frames:
    ***Its important to acknowledge the stock market is very expensive by historical measures -- particularly on the growth side. The articles linked above make that clear.
    But...
    ***The Fed is now part of the investment landscape in ways it was not in the past. That hit home to me in early 2019 when the Fed abandoned its rate tightening efforts ( Powell Put ).
    ***The Fed further clarified the breadth of the Powell Put by acting very aggressively last winter when the markets were in turmoil. It has also suggested it will intervene aggressively if market turmoil erupts again in the near term.
    ***Having Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary will probably increase coordination between the Fed and Treasury.
    ***Having the Democrats in charge probably means additional fiscal stimulus will occur this year.
    ***The pandemic will probably have a significant ongoing disruptive economic impact for much/most of this year. The probable shape of the post-pandemic investment landscape may not come into focus until late this year or next year.
    My investment portfolio thinking:
    The combination of near zero interest rates, the Feds aggressive stance, and substantial fiscal stimulus helped me to decide to leave my allocation to stocks somewhat elevated by my standards when the annual review was completed in December (strong stock market performance and a shift of about 5% of the portfolio from ZEOIX to utility stocks in August had bumped it up during 2020). But, a nod to uncertainty resulted in the purchase of GBLMX, CRAAX, and SVARX as well as some trimming of growth stock holdings during the transition from 2020 to 2021.
    Now I am just watching while keeping my eye on VIX out of curiosity. My crystal ball is still quite unclear about how long the Fed/fiscal stimulus part of the equation will succeed in keeping the bulls mostly in charge of the stock market. Maybe for multiple years if the Fed and fiscal policy makers navigate well??? But, maybe Grantham will prove to have been correct and the profitably investable top occurred last summer!!!
    Other portfolio notes:
    ***There is adequate cash in reserve (SPAXX, JPST, and RPHYX) and enough investments in bond funds to enable an investment portfolio reallocation into stocks if a significant (20%+) market decline occurs.
    ***I am a 70 year old retiree. The dividends, distributions, and any capital gains received during the year are invested separately in the "Cash Pot" for release to a non-investment account at the end of the year. So, the set-aside beginning this month is for probable release at the end of 2021. But, there are adequate reserves outside the investment accounts to ride out an investment apocalypse event if that occurs during the year.
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds
    While JHQAX perked an interest in MFO discussion, it is important to assess how JHQAX performed in 2020 relative to its peers with respect to their returns and risk. As @fred495 noted that the fund uses an options strategy for the past seven years. The fund is categorized as “Alternative long/short” fund in MFO Premium.
    I compared this fund to Vanguard S&P 500 index (VFIAX) as the proxy for S&P500 index without the option strategy for 2020. The option strategy enabled lower drawdown in March, -5.1% versus -19.5%, respectively, and having a shorter recovery period, 3 months versus 4 months, respectively.
    However, this lower volatility is accomplished at the expense of the annual return as the market recovered in July; the S&P 500 index out-performed JHQAX, 18.4% versus 13.8% by year end. Question I ask myself is this an apple-to-apple comparison?
    I also took this analysis further to over the 7 year period since the inception of JHQAX (2014). I also include Vanguard Balanced index fund, VBIAX to see if 40% total bond allocation would work better or not than the option strategy.
    Here is the result in Portfolio Visualizer,
    https://portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
    1. JHQAX has the lowest drawdown ratio and comparable Sortino ratio to VBIAX.
    2. JHQAX trails the annal returns of VFIAX and VBIAX for 1,3,5 and 7 years period.
    3. The negative asset correlation of bond performed better than the option strategy over this 7 year period.
    4. Overall the 60/40 allocation provides the best balance on return versus risk. However this is my personal opinion but every investors need to evaluate their own risk tolerance with respect to the return.
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    @Stillers ... I've done a lot of reading on FPURX vs FBALX. They are so closely correlated. Good suggestions everyone. Thank you! This is a good primer but would like your opinion. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/balanced-vs-puritan-fidelity-fund-100000950.html
    John, an argument can be made for either and it would be a very close debate (as your linked article shows), ultimately decided by simple personal preference.
    I prefer the L/M/S and G/B/V splatters and the slight/marginal 1-3-5-10-yr consistent outperformance of FBALX over FPURX.
    That said, either one of these two is a great LT holding, AA choice, and coupled with others on my "short list," make for great core holdings in a balanced portfolio. If in doubt about FBALX vs FPURX, simply buy both at 50/50 weightings.
    EDIT: BTW, I own all of the AA funds on my short list except JABAX. I have previously owned JABAX and VGSTX. I never owned FPURX. I reduced my AA holdings at EOY 2020 to just PRWCX, VLAAX, FBALX, VBIAX, FMSDX and VWIAX, all with just about the same allocations. Also, I've spent YEARS crunching AA fund options and the result of all of that time/research is these selected AA funds.