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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Grantham article is downright scary. Edit: Adding: So if he is right and interest rates are still at an all time low but sure to rise at somepoint ... where do you hide?
    I know it depends on your investment horizon. For investors retiring soon or relying on dividends etc... it may be downright frightening to imagine a major correction in 2021. If you have 10 to 20 years before needing a distribution, perhaps you can what? Keep more money in Cash? Thoughts?
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    I would add VGSTX to the above list. Very diversified and had a stellar 2020. It is a fund of funds that I have had for 25 years and has never disappointed.
    Agreed, VGSTX is an excellent 50%-70% AA fund that is the rough, TR equivalent of VBIAX. It being my "short list" though I decided to only include VBIAX, but VGSTX could easily replace VBIAX or be added.
    Also just missing my "short list" threshold is NAINX, another AA OEF worthy of consideration in the 50%-70% cat given its Current-5yr performance.
    FPURX is NOT on my "short list" as FBALX is IMO the choice between these two.
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    I would add VGSTX to the above list. Very diversified and had a stellar 2020. It is a fund of funds that I have had for 25 years and has never disappointed.
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    No Mark. You are correct. I don't own but I believe it was available recently. It no longer is. So I guess I missed it. Too bad because it looks like a great fund.

    No, Jon, unless you got PRWCX mixed up with another fund, it has been closed to new investors for over six years.
    But, I agree that VLAAX/VLAIX or JABAX/JBALX would be good alternatives. The reason I mention JBALX is that the fund, unlike VLAIX*, has a separate manager dedicated to the bond portion of the portfolio. I think that may be a not unimportant consideration in the current, seemingly rising interest rate environment.
    Good luck,
    Fred
    *Added by edit: As msf has pointed out below, VLAIX also has separate bond managers. My mistake.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    The institional share of Thornberg funds are no load and requires $5K at Fidelity plus $49.95 transaction fee. It is better to go with ARTYX, NTF at Fidelity with $3K minimum. I gradually move some overseas funds toward growth style over several years. Finding good managers took sometime. So far Mr. Kaufman has done very well. I am okay with 20% invested in US growth companies. Stock picking has been right on so far. The only minor negative is the higher than average expense ratio, 1.36%.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    Our investment certainly cross-path multiple times. MAPIX is a solid conservative Asia fund. There was one year that MAPIX did not pay a year-end dividend. The explanation was not satisfactory in their annual report. I reduced my holding on MAPIX and invested with Andrew Foster (Seafarer). Several years ago I found Lewis Kaufman again at Artisan Developing World fund; previously I invested with Mr. Kaufman's Thornburg Developing World fund. The portfolio on the Artisan fund is more focus more on growth companies and I have not look back since.
    Dodge & Cox has changed quite a bit lately. I used to invest with them in the 90's, but the drawdown in 2008 exposed their weakness in stock picking. Once my investment recovered several years later I moved on elsewhere. The only D&C funds I would invest with are their bond funds: Income and Global Income. MFO Premium has great tools to compare the funds with respect to their risk profile and drawdown.
  • Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
    @racqueteer- Thanks. I'm perhaps a little more prone to that perspective than other people because I spent years working with data systems that controlled, measured, and reported on San Francisco's public safety communications systems. For example, the status of an emergency generator at a remote radio site, or for that matter, on the activity of the radios themselves.
    That sort of experience teaches one to trust nothing absolutely. ;)
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @Sven Yes. I had money with Matthews. A bad experience with them over the phone years ago killed my desire to keep my money with them. MAPIX had a great 2020, but did not pay at year-end. It happened all those years ago, with one particular Quarter--- which is why I was on the phone with them.... Still shepherding money for a colleague and his wife. She has some of her stuff in MAPIX and MAINX. (The rest in DODBX and DODIX.) Ever since 2010, when I rearranged their stuff. Can't complain that much, I suppose. David lately offered us some words of assurance re: MAINX. It has switch from Q to monthly pay-outs.
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    But uncle Joe will not get a blank check from the likes of Joe Manchin (allegedly a "D", from West Virginia.) I lived and worked there for a number of years. Lots of Kool-Aid drinkers there. Allergic to helping themselves, by voting for anything that might benefit anyone beyond their immediate family. Still "rugged individualism." Whether it's really true or not. Manchin gets elected by not behaving like a "D." And the late (2nd) impeachment? He's just not there.
  • Alternatives to Low Yielding Bond Funds

    Thanks, JD, for sharing.
    Never considered using options-based funds. But, after a quick review, both SWAN & DRSK look quite promising. Need to do more DD, of course.
    Thanks, again.
    Fred
    After doing some research, I came across JHQAX, a fund that has successfully employed an options strategy for the past seven years. M*'s last fund analysis report says that:
    "Attractive fees, a transparent and consistent process, and an experienced manager elevate JPMorgan Hedged Equity ahead of its peers. The strategy maintains a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Silver for its cheapest share classes."
    The fund has a standard deviation of 7.94%, a Sortino ratio of 1.41, and a 5-year total return of 10.3%. JHQAX is available at Fidelity with NTF and load waived. Min. initial investment is $1,000.
    I may consider matching JHQAX with DRSK which also has an excellent but very short record.
    Fred
  • Roundhill Pro Sports, Media & Apparel ETF in registration
    @Derf,
    don't get me wrong, I'm not a gamer, don't know too much about it myself...will state that my last role in the corporate world, I worked with many folks in their early to mid-20's....wow, it was kinda culture shock for me as in many cases I was older than their parents but I always kept an open mind and both them and I appreciated it...had many entertaining conversations/observations.
    One talented nice guy nearly made it as a professional gamer, oh so close, told me he was washed up at 25 years young, reflexes are already too slow at that age, huh?
    Take care of you and yours,
    Baseball Fan
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Stop the crazy meaning everything...who in their right mind thought you could just waltz into the Capital and not learn the meaning of consequences...who thought we would have a break down in law and order...(I see where Macy's just announced pull out of Water Tower Place on Mag Mile, Chicago after being there 45 years...can you say no more looters and thugs in our stores please...ah but the tax monies!)...defund the police, crazy...police not letting up off a subdued suspect's neck, crazy...Tesla...Bitcoin....asset bubbles....folks thinking the virus is fake...
    Honestly, I told the wife the other day...I don't know what to think anymore...
    Here's to a saner, safer, more rational world and good health and good luck to all in 2021!
    Baseball Fan
  • Matthews Asia Total Return Bond (fka Matthews Asia Strategic Income)
    Thanks @David for sharing this. Ive enjoyed your writeups on this fund over the last 5 years. A nice steady eddy consistent fund which is what I look for.
  • But there's no inflation...
    Pretty good reminder of what we have forgotten:
    inflation-truthers

    That video is Exhibit A in what Consumerism is, and why it's a bad way to live. Completely uncritical and accepting of the status quo. Don't think about what you're buying. Just buy it. Don't ask whether this purchase is a good idea, just buy it--- because everyone else is. Hoover Institution: conservative. Thus, he found a way to show how the middle class and the poor HAVE gotten richer over the years... That's a crazy statement that does not compute. Of course, he sounds very matter of fact and reasonable in his presentation. I'm the radical Lefty, ya. So move on, and don't listen to a word I might have to say.
    Sorry, bee. I'm sure you offered us that video in a very different vein.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    No, it would've reacted surely to that. But if the national guard/cops came in and then killed the traitors--and anyone invading and then carrying a Confederate flag in the capitol is a traitor in my book--the markets would've tanked and then probably bounced back. Yet if the coup was successful or if it was an ongoing siege, yes it would've been disastrous. The way a coup would be disastrous to the market is that Trump actually has a rather hostile relationship with these dominant tech companies and harebrained ideas about foreign trade, so giving him complete control would ruin the economy, unless the tech giants somehow struck a deal with him. But Google and the other tech players, which are global companies, have been willing to work with autocracies before. This is why I believe strongly in regulation, taxation and anti-monopolistic breakups of dominant players. In other words, I'm not really sure Wall Street minds tyrants, just so long as the tyrant doesn't get in the way of business. In fact if anything the last four years shows is that Wall Street rather liked this utterly corrupt administration. It also liked Obama's administration too and seems ready to embrace Biden's. Am I being too cynical? Perhaps. Yesterday's treason has put me in a mood.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    That would depend on how you define successful. A complete coup in which Trump seizes power as the dictator he's always fantasized being and American democracy dies altogether instead of limps along slowly to its demise like it has been for forty years would probably be disastrous for markets. But seriously, ask yourself as you stare at your screen right now how much yesterday's event affects Google's, Microsoft's, Amazon's and Facebook's bottom lines? Not much if at all I suspect. And even under autocracies markets can do well. China is an autocracy which switched from being a fake communist autocracy to now a fake capitalist autocracy and its markets have done quite well. The idea that capitalism brings freedom is a myth. I am horrified by yesterday's events, disgusted, but Davidrmoran is right that it will probably not hurt the market.
  • Roundhill Pro Sports, Media & Apparel ETF in registration
    Ah, Prof Snowball.. nonsense it might be but I was telling folks 15 years ago that
    . We'd be letting criminals out of prison cause we can't afford to keep them there
    . We'd legalize the weed cause we need the tax monies
    . We'd be wearing six shooters on our hips cause of all the crime
    . We'd be seeing youngsters skip out on school loan debt..too excessive, expensive
    . We'd be seeing legalized sports gambling cause we need the tax monies
    Now me thinks we're going to see prostitution legalized within four years. And. We will see gaming be the next sports arena slash investing platform similar to horse racing etc
    Check it. I believe in chicago they are building a mini arena just to watch live gaming seating for a few thousand
    C'mon prof. You're around the young Turks and I believe you have a young son... different times for sure...
    Best regards to all
    Baseball Fan
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    It was disturbing to see Romney got harassed at Salt Lake City airport on Monday/Tuesday. He stayed cool and tried to answer her question. The GOP has created their own monster by enabling him in the last 4 years. This country is a democratic republic, not a banana republic.
  • Well isn't this special........D.C.
    I commend the decorum thus far, with comments in this thread.
    The subject matter was placed in "fund discussions" as to the potential fallout implications into all areas of the investment markets; from the events of Jan. 6, at the Capitol building.
    May 1, 2020 found gun carrying protesters inside the Michigan Capitol building face to face, literally; with Michigan State Police. One false move, accident or mistake could have caused a very nasty situation. One can easily imagine what could have taken place at the U.S. Capitol building, had "x" number of the protesters carried and chose to use weapons. I didn't see any long rifles, but I would not be surprised about 9mm pistols. Common GLOCK handguns may have 20 rounds in place.
    What we may have considered in the past years to be a "black swan" event; has taken a new face, that still may affect investing markets going forward. Those who feel more empowered now about what a "patriot" may be; have not and will not disappear.
    Thank you.
    Catch
  • List of securities and companies impacted by Executive Order 13959
    Yes this would be a total cluster if trump includes alibaba and tencent as most EM funds hold these stocks in large quantities. It has driven performance for many funds over the past few years. let's hope not. Still it will be up to Biden on whether to enforce it and I bet he doesn't. China would retaliate over this