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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is Oakmark going to offer a retail bond fund?
    I think @davidmoran is correct about biases at M*. Oakmark is a « homey » with both firms growing up in Chicago. M* still has a value bias that seems to affect their overrating of funds hewing to traditional value criteria. What other factor beside bias accounts for praising Nygren and Herro despite their lousy performance? Washington Mutual should have been Nygren’s Waterloo, but he’s still getting interviews. Same goes for Herro, who gets trooped out every time international markets start acting as though they won’t continue to deliver around 5% per annum, with unacceptable volatility. I used to own Oakmark funds, including Mr. S’s, but have not for many years.
  • Important 2021 Numbers
    For tax wonks: An organization must be more than merely nonprofit in order for contributions to it to be deductible. For example, superPACs are nonprofit 501(c)(4) organizations, yet a taxpayer cannot deduct contributions made to them.
    https://stateimpact.npr.org/florida/2013/04/05/explaining-the-differences-between-501c3-and-501c4-non-profits/
    MFO is a 501(c)(3) entity, so donations to MFO are deductible. Further, it is classified as a public charity. This can affect the amount of contributions that a taxpayer may deduct or carry over into future years. Being a public charity is also important because one can make QCDs only to public charities.
    https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/required-minimum-distributions/qcds
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Mutual-Fund-Observer-IRS-determination-letter.pdf
  • Important 2021 Numbers
    @DaveSch: It looks to me MFO is listed as non-profit as per letter David received a few years back from IRS. Look under Support top of page.
    Later , Derf
  • Important 2021 Numbers
    That's a great list of most of the important numbers.
    One class of figures it left out is charitable contributions. For 2020 only, if you make contributions in cash to a public charity excluding DAFs, you can contribute up to 100% AGI. This drops back down to 60% in 2021. The limit of appreciated property (including fund shares) to charities is 30% of AGI. Then there are all sorts of combo limits. When giving to public charities, any unused deduction can be carried forward for five years.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/berniekent/2020/04/03/giving-more-than-60-of-income-to-charity-cares-act-says-deduct-it/?sh=7382a816b34f
    There's also the $300 above the line deduction for cash contributions to charities (excluding DAFs).
    https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/special-300-tax-deduction-helps-most-people-give-to-charity-this-year-even-if-they-dont-itemize
    This appears to be available in future years as well: "Under new Sec. 62(a)(22), for tax years beginning in 2020, eligible individuals may deduct up to $300 in qualified charitable contributions made to qualified charitable organizations."
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2020/sep/cares-act-charitable-deduction-for-nonitemizers.html
    Finally, let's not forget one of the most important (and underfunded) numbers:
    (800) TAX-1040
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FD, I have not been following M* recently and am not familiar with the newer M* performance charts, but I have a hard time believing that the old M* performance charts are so inaccurate, that there is a difference of 3% peak to trough differences in VCFIX. I have posted a new thread on M* to learn more about why there are such differences. I have read that many of the performance charting systems, is more in line with stocks, and often do not do a good job of capturing distributions from bond oefs in calculating total return. If the old M* performance charts are that inaccurate, I would have expected that someone would have noticed and challenged that over the years. Since I have not been following M* for several months, this might have been addressed in some previous M* discussions--do you have a theory as to why the old M* performance charts are so inaccurate and what performance charting errors have been correcting in the newer charting systems?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    dtconroe.
    I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections. I think Fidelity is better and free to all investors even if you are not a client, right now their selected Multi list(link) is as follows:PTIAX, HSNAX, BMSAX, DINAX, JHFIX (PONAX/PIMIX used to be on this list for years). Fidelity always promote their funds as selected but I disregard it until I verify their superiority and in most cases I can find better choices.
    I think funds like TSIIX,PTIAX are more of a hold than VCFIX.
    As usual, I don't trust any fund/managers, volatility can show up any time and I hope not to be there.
    wxman, GIBLX is still doing well in its category at one month=2.2% and 3 months=1.4% This is still in the top 15% in its M* category. For most investors who are looking for a ballast, performance and longer term hold, it's a great fund.
    For a much smaller group of investors like me, who rely more on bonds for higher performance and use momentum successfully, I hardly ever use Core and Core Plus funds. I would not recommend this for most investors.
    Junkster, I stayed away from IOFIX for several months after the crash, I made most of my money after that with HY munis. I wanted to see more calm and was glad the Fed actions worked. I sure missed a lot of performance from the bottom but I also missed all the meltdown in March of 2020 (documented in this thread). Every Saturday I write down my portfolio performance for the last week and YTD. I can't complain too much when I'm up 18% in 2020, only one week loss at -0.3%, 5 weeks at zero and the rest are all up.
    Great work FD, I wish I could say the same for my portfolio...but happy I'm up a bit. Been about 47% cash all this year. On the other hand, you could have stayed in ANBEX (one of your choices) and been up over 17% YTD while you did nothing but sip wine and coffee!
  • The counterintuitive truth about stock market valuations
    "Many Americans are still hurting. Giving them the help they need could have greater value for the economy — and the country — than the Dow hitting new heights."
    TRUTH.
    ...Yet, here's an additional thought: The one typing these words is a socialist, but even I realize (sigh) that capitalism is the only game in town. People must be educated and have the fact drummed into them, that capitalism is the only game in town, in the USA. By definition, capitalism is inequitable. There are winners and there are losers. Because the playing field isn't level. Thus the need for regulations. But regulations with TEETH, not loopholes. So, "winners" and "losers" don't have to be so very far apart, as is the case today. The income inequality in this country today hasn't been so crazy nuts since the Gilded Age, the age of the Robber Barons. JP Morgan. Jay Gould. Rockefeller, Carnegie and all the rest of them.
    Equality of opportunity is essential. Equality of OUTCOMES is self-sabotage, I think, in societal terms. But then, defining your terms then becomes necessary. And there's a huge difference between what's legal and what's ethical. Our common humanity demands that they not be so utterly divorced from each other, as is the case today.
    ...So, years from now, someone with 12 million dollars can feel satisfied, but at the lower end of the income scale, that guy need not feel like he's been left with the shit-end of the stick. If students truly LEARN how to not just save, but to INVEST, and if they are taught not to do crazy stuff with their money that they don't even understand, then they will be much better off than the mass of people today.
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    While the current vaccine race has many components over many years to achieve what is now in place; the processing speeds of computer systems to help determine outcomes in many areas provides great benefit now and into the future in our lives.
    From an October, 2019 thread.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    dtconroe.
    I'm OK with VCFIX but the meltdown of over 18% was too much, even PIMIX was down less than that around 11%. I don't put a lot of faith in Schwab bond selections. I think Fidelity is better and free to all investors even if you are not a client, right now their selected Multi list(link) is as follows:PTIAX, HSNAX, BMSAX, DINAX, JHFIX (PONAX/PIMIX used to be on this list for years). Fidelity always promote their funds as selected but I disregard it until I verify their superiority and in most cases I can find better choices.
    I think funds like TSIIX,PTIAX are more of a hold than VCFIX.
    As usual, I don't trust any fund/managers, volatility can show up any time and I hope not to be there.
    wxman, GIBLX is still doing well in its category at one month=2.2% and 3 months=1.4% This is still in the top 15% in its M* category. For most investors who are looking for a ballast, performance and longer term hold, it's a great fund.
    For a much smaller group of investors like me, who rely more on bonds for higher performance and use momentum successfully, I hardly ever use Core and Core Plus funds. I would not recommend this for most investors.
    Junkster, I stayed away from IOFIX for several months after the crash, I made most of my money after that with HY munis. I wanted to see more calm and was glad the Fed actions worked. I sure missed a lot of performance from the bottom but I also missed all the meltdown in March of 2020 (documented in this thread). Every Saturday I write down my portfolio performance for the last week and YTD. I can't complain too much when I'm up 18% in 2020, only one week loss at -0.3%, 5 weeks at zero and the rest are all up.
  • The Technology Olympics - Reaching Quantum Supremacy
    Separately China and Google have reached this computing milestone.
    Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman was the first to suggest that the mind-bending properties of quantum mechanics could be harnessed to make a new kind of computer. Almost 40 years later and after a decade of significant progress -- and after a claim by Google that its computer had reached a milestone known as “quantum supremacy” -- it’s still easier to describe the approach’s potential importance than to describe how it works.
    image
    why-quantum-computers-will-be-super-awesome-someday-quicktake
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    As for the coal minor, sure, a comparatively small industry, but one that is directly affected by the new green movement. Every life matters, right?
    Not apparently the thousands--soon to be millions--already displaced as climate refugees from their homes or apparently the sea otter to you. And of course there's the sheer absurdity of your assuming that reducing fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions only destroys jobs and won't create any simultaneously. Reducing the world's carbon footprint will be an immense task that will create more jobs certainly than it destroys in the already moribund coal industry. But as I said previously and I maintain, none of this really matters to you. You know the science is true and the impact will be severe but just don't care.
    More "meaningless" science-y stuff: https://scientificamerican.com/article/would-a-green-new-deal-add-or-kill-jobs1/
    We estimate that the more conservative $25 carbon tax would boost U.S. employment by 1.4 million jobs each year between 2020 and 2030, which is nearly a 1 percent increase above the reference–case forecast of 160 million jobs in 2030. As the economy expands and the tax increases, job growth from the GND [i.e., Green New Deal] would accelerate, creating, on average, 3.4 million new jobs each year between 2040 and 2050—a nearly 2 percent increase above the 182 million jobs forecast for the U.S. in 2050. Overall, it is estimated that 72 million job years would be created over the three decades with a $25 carbon tax. (Note that if one job continues after one year for another 12 months, it represents two job years.)
    With the more aggressive $60 carbon tax, U.S. employment would still exceed the reference-case forecast, but the increase would be less than that of the $25 tax. The higher tax causes much larger supply-side job losses, but they are still smaller than the gains in energy-efficiency jobs motivated by higher energy prices. Overall, 35 million job years would be created between 2020 and 2050, with net job increases in almost all regions.
    According to the latest data, in 2018 about 9.2 million Americans (5.7 percent of the U.S. workforce of roughly 162 million at the time) were employed in an energy industry. Nearly half of these jobs (about 4.3 million) made up the traditional supply-oriented categories: fuels, including petroleum, natural gas, coal and woody biomass (1.1 million); electric power generation (900,000); and transmission, distribution and storage (2.3 million). The motor-vehicle-related industries employed 2.5 million, and energy efficiency employed 2.4 million.
    The GND would cause traditional supply-oriented jobs to decrease, but energy-efficiency jobs would more than compensate for the losses. New jobs from energy-efficiency investments would be significant, totaling 1.8 million in 2030 and 4.2 million in 2050. These estimates reflect the labor-intensity of jobs in construction, which account for more than half of the energy-efficiency workforce in 2018. Other large gains would be associated with heating, ventilation, air-conditioning and refrigeration systems—the largest share of energy-efficiency investments in the residential and commercial sectors. In industry, the greatest investments estimated would be in energy and environmental management and smart controls, followed by industrial-machinery manufacturing such as that of high-efficiency motors and variable-speed drives. The result would be job growth across all nine Census divisions of the U.S., in all three decades with a $25 carbon tax. The $60 tax would boost job growth in the U.S. overall and across a majority of its nine Census divisions and three decades.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    >> What sacrifices do we need to make to save that half a degree?
    You write as though you keep up, but it is clear you do not, not really. There is a lot of work out there, hardcore practical effective proposals, a lot of them by your mocked academics, covering what is entailed to effect such a huge course alteration as a half a degree.
    You must have read, while worrying about working coalminers (of whom there are very very few), and about John Kerry's lifestyle indicating what, hypocrisy? seriously? Kerry?, about the temperature point (which is close, meaning not that far off) at which human life becomes nearly impossible.
    >> How about moving north?
    Oh, go for it.
    Eventually, and not so far off either, those forests will burn every summer too.
    Or ... get hep to renewables and feasible policy:
    https://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/07/finding-the-right-policy-mix-to-safeguard-our-climate/
    I am fascinated that someone literate and thoughtful-sounding falls back on the tiredest of Fox editorials:
    \\\ ... causing substantial damage to the environment and people in other respects? This is the real and fair debate among knowledgeable people,

    Yes, there absolutely is real discussion of trades. Moneys for retraining. Serious moneys. Disaster relief. Can you cite the debates you think are most informed or fairminded or interesting or promising?
    \\\ and to deny it makes you the ignorant one.
    You probably had best not go there, honestly, and not just with LB.
    \\\ Some honest and good people do care about an entire industry and its workers being told to shut down. If your brother, son, daughter or best friend made their living as a coal minor or working an oil rig I think you would see this point.
    Again, best not to personalize or go to anecdote.
    There is no helping coalminers or rig workers no matter what anyone does or what policies are adopted. Everybody but you and the most extreme of rightwingers know that --- National Review, the industries themselves, any of the candidates except for the departing pantsloaded infant. 'See this point'? What point would that be? Have you followed (e.g.) coal trends and the data over the last decades ?
    These are old and tired arguments, from the 1970s, as though you are 95yo and just waking up and never read the number-crunching.
    \\\ I doubt you know any of those types.
    oh, here we go. You probably also do not want to turn this into some blue-collar cred thing either, not if you want to present as thoughtful. It's not like a Clifford Odets play from 1934.

    You are one angry man. Retraining? You go for that. Your long drone did not identify a single thing to save that half a degree nor explain how deals drawn up by elite hypocrites in Europe are going to prevent those in the rapidly expanding developing world from spewing smoke and driving in their gas-powered vehicles for years to come, and it's a good thing too or else they might burn up on the spot according to you. It's cool and all to have new age green ideas, even for a probable old white guy like you, but you still haven't explained what should be done that's preferable to what is already being done, like better emission controls, clean coal, etc. I simply don't agree that extreme measures like banning fracking and giving up American energy independence will benefit our country and, despite hopes and dreams, will not even save that half a degree.
  • S&P 500 and it's new Addition -Tesla
    Wall Street’s 3 Most Hated Stocks
    It’s no secret that “hedgies” and “sophisticated” investors have been shorting Tesla for several years. You’d think they’d have lost their britches by now.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    Nestle's Plan to be emission neutral by 2050.
    I'll be 91 years young in 2050 or I may have already released my personal carbon footprint back into the atmosphere. Things move slowly in this arena:
    Nestlé was responsible for 92 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, roughly double the amount emitted by all of Switzerland.
    /nestle-efforts-combat-climate-change
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    wxman123,
    PIMIX is still a good fund but when I owned it I like the way it was. Since PIMIX is so huge the managers had to compromise and own more HY + EM + lower the distributions and still behind. PIMIX ranked at 78 in category in 2019 and 52 in 2020. The best risk/reward in bond land was in securitized. I'm never concerned about outperformance, it's what I do.
    JAVSX is a small fund where the managers can be flexible and use their best ideas.
    The question as is always what investor you are, goals and style. You need to do your own due diligence to suit your needs
    ==================
    dtconroe,
    I am willing to revisit usage of funds like VCFIX/VCFAX as a fund that was considered one of the safer, less riisky funds, prior to the crash, especially when you look at its relatively smooth performance track since the crash. When a reputable brokerage, like Schwab, is willing to put it on its Select fund list, I tend to give that fund more "benefit of the doubt" than funds like IOFIX, DHEAX, and SEMPX, which had terrible crash performance
    If you look at 3 years prior to the crash and compare VCFIX,IOFIX,SEMMX,PIMIX (link) you see the following:
    1) SEMMX+IOFIX had the best risk/reward with Sharpe+Sortino.
    2) SEMMX had good performance annually over 5% with very low SD=0.9.
    3) IOFIX had double the performance with reasonable SD=2.6
    4) VCFIX had good risk/reward and beat PIMIX
    March 2020 changed is all.
    I don't invest based on crashes just as I didn't after 2008. There are investors who see danger while I see an opportunity (chart).
    But I understand what you do and it suits your style.
    HOBIX is another fund with good risk/reward since March 2020 see (chart).
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
    I like and own JASVX but it is not exactly the same type of fund as PIMIX at this point. Also not sure I see PIMIX doing so bad outside of this year (still up 4.6%) and last. Agree that the bloat won't allow "secret sauce" outperformance going forward, but still can be a good fund. Definitely watching closely. My concern with JASVX is it's outsized performance this year. I have a rule that when you see a fund outperform that much you need to expect that it could underperform just as badly, like IOFIX. Put differently, I'd tell my elderly mom it's fine to park a good chunk of her savings in PIMIX, not so sure about JASVX. But being the bond master I'm interested in your take on this.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Over the last 10 years the best performance and Sharpe would have been delivered by PTIAX and PIMIX, and with no down years. Hard to recommend others when we have these (agree PIMIX is not doing so great lately, so will need to watch).
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    You may have guessed from my user name that I might possibly know a bit about climate. And, I'm a nature lover to boot. I have not denied the science, but follow it closely. My point is that the measures suggested by Politician's, like John Kerry, to make things better are highly unlikely to have their intended effect without serious adverse consequence. Everything we do has consequences. I'm certain most of us remember gas lines, rationing...even kids siphoning gas out of cars at strip malls. Back then the dream of all was American energy independence. Now we have it, but many (maybe most?) would give that up and for what? The climate of the earth is going to change and we humans do have an impact on that, but for better or worse? We may not know for another million years. No one can promise that if we do everything possible (you know, even all living in igloos) what the impact will be even if we can stop the human contribution to global warming in its tracks (and, of course, we can't). Most climate "specialists" promote their agenda, that is, reduce greenhouse gases, but at what cost and end result? I sincerely doubt that a single one is planning on selling their beachfront properties based on the premise that it will in the foreseeable future be part of the Atlantic Ocean, yet that is the pitch. (Indeed, John Kerry is particularly fond of the islands off New England, he doesn't seem too concerned.) Over time one thing I've learned is that when academics put all of their resources into fixing a supposed problem the cure is often worse than the disease. Covid response is just the most recent example of this phenomenon (but I'm sure most here will disagree).
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image
    I agree that BASIX is pretty good, MNCPX looks better when you look at performance + SD.
    Schwab have 2 recommended Multi funds JMSIX,VCFIX and I think they are not as good the others on my list. TSIIX is clearly better as a generic fund. PTIAX is another good one specializing in securitized and Munis. If I wanted to use riskier fund I would go with HSNYX over these two. It has much better performance for 1-3 years and lower SD