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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 5 Exciting High Dividend REITs
    Exciting High Dividend REITs
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4416145-5-exciting-high-dividend-reits
    Summary
    *Real estate investment trusts ('REITs') are popular with income seeking investors in the current low interest rate environment.
    In this article, we highlight five of our favorite REITs in the data center, self-storage, and commercial property industries that represent prime income generation opportunities.
    To gauge the forward-looking strength of a company, we use our proprietary Dividend Cushion ratio, which we cover in this article.
    Concluding Thoughts
    CyrusOne, CubeSmart, Digital Realty, Public Storage, and Realty Income represent five of our favorite dividend growth REITs out there as these firms represent stellar opportunities for income seeking investors. The data center and self-storage industries are great places to locate high-quality income generation ideas with solid growth outlooks and strong payouts. For Realty Income, we expect its business to come surging back as public health authorities in the US and the UK work towards bringing an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, aided by ongoing vaccine distribution efforts. Looking ahead, all five of these REITs should continue to make good on their payout obligations over the coming years with room for dividend growth upside, in our view.*
    In the next few years real estates investments may see > 10 20% gain possible
  • Bigtime SECTOR Rotations
    This is why I have owned one stock in part BA-Boeing for 45 years and will never sell it. I am also 87 in April. There were times when I owned a great deal more.
  • Investing in the Gig Economy - GIGE
    Kind of what happens as an end result when you ship all your decent paying jobs overseas over the period of 20-30 years...ya'll left with a BS economy...selling weed for tax revenue, working at fast food joints, driving UBERs...and the good paying jobs are either in overpriced health care segment or developing apps that society would arguably be better off without and wouldn't miss them if they didn't exist, keeping rates low so mortgage finance officers can make bank and realtors and local tax districts can suckle of the false teet of overprice real estate....so you get what I would call instead of EXPLOIT...BSECONO....
    Side Note: Love how many of the folks who run for local office on school boards etc, state they own their own business...I always ask them, very nice, congrats...how many associates do you employ, what kind of budget did you manage, what were your revenues over the past threee years...oh...so really you were a free lance graphic artist working on average 25 hours a week...
    Get used to it...if the real economy was real sound, you wouldn't have folks particpating in these BS, screw the worker grunt, no bennies, while exec's make bank types of companies. They would get laughed out of existence.
    But...we like it, don't we, we all buy from Bezos, squeezing local merchants and like our UBERs don't we?
    Baseball Fan
  • Goldman Analysts Claim Inhumane Working Conditions
    This was common during Dot Com when we were all working to build the 'modern' internet, such that it is. Back then, we believed in what we were inventing/creating/running and us GenX'ers also had the last vestigages of that 'old time' work ethic we picked up from our parents, families, and teachers in the 70s and 80s growing up.
    We worked hard, we had (some) fun, we played hard, sometime slept in the office when on a final deadline, rarely complained and were fairly compensated one way or the other. We didn't have expectations of grandeur of making VP or Director or Partner in 2 years after hire or anything like that. Now, it seems everyone feels entitled to everything, and if they encounter obstacles (like time-in-grade or industry, certification or competency exams, etc) you're seen as putting up exclusionary roadblocks and how-dare-you.
    Admittedly, the expectation for some things have changed, and I think for the better, such as improving work-life balance, remote work, etc. And I *totally* agree there are people problems - especially several horrible gender/social issues in the tech field, which is my own discipline and thus am most familiar with - which has contrbuted to the huge push across sectors for equality, equity, & expectations. Unfortunately, you can take addressing them to insane or extreme lengths in the name of 'inclusion' and that can end up causing resentment by all involved. This situation is made worse if you feel discouraged from asking constructively critical questions about things because that'll put you on record & suggest that you're not committed to [cause or solution du jour] by the bean counters. internal affairs, HR, or consultants.
    I daresay in some ways as a society we've lost all sense of reason in dealing with such issues, many of which indeed are longstanding problems that need improvement and/or resolution ASAP.
  • Shorter and Hotter Cycles Ahead...Morgan Stanley View
    I do agree that shorter and hotter cycles are likely ahead. But taking a longer term view (7-10 years) I still think small and mid caps, especially growth orientated, will outperform large caps. I like BIGRX and DHLAX for LCV and have been nibbling at them both in the last 6 months.
  • A Fallen Star - Min Vol Funds - VMVFX
    I often wonder whether factor-based funds are really better than allocation funds. I tried them several years ago but they were eliminated in favor of active managed allocation funds.
  • A Fallen Star - Min Vol Funds - VMVFX
    This was a fine eclectic fund that I held from launch until 2 years ago when they changed managers and things kind of went blah, and I lost faith. ;/
  • Goldman Analysts Claim Inhumane Working Conditions
    I worked for a small "boutique" investment bank in NYC about 15 years ago, and the analysts there would often work wicked hours. Sometimes, when working on a deal, they would sleep at their desk (or under it) for a few hours overnight. Weekends were never their own. They were paid well, but they were mistreated badly. Some saw it as "paying your dues" for a nice career in Private Equity later on.
  • A Fallen Star - Min Vol Funds - VMVFX
    Here is a whitepaper from Qontigo (Axioma, DAX, STOXX) that says much the same thing.
    https://qontigo.com/low-volatility-strategies-why-the-wheels-came-off-temporarily-in-2020-blog/
    CONCLUSION
    The Low Risk 200 index has historically outpaced its Global 1800 benchmark and has produced a higher Sharpe ratio in about two thirds of the years since 2006. In months and years when the market fell, low risk outperformed. The strategy’s worst relative performance came when the market rose sharply. In 2020, however, when the market was down, the Low Risk 200 fell even more, and then continued to underperform (as expected) in the subsequent market recovery. Overall, that made for a very difficult year for Low Volatility investors...
  • Shorter and Hotter Cycles Ahead...Morgan Stanley View
    Lots of mid cycle thoughts...
    But don't worry, that's likely not happening any time soon. However, it does mean we could move from an early cycle playbook to more of a mid cycle strategy sooner than normal. Sectors like energy, industrials and health care may do better from here, which is earlier than what we experienced in the prior two expansions. It also means small caps start to underperform large caps sooner than normal, which is a big reason we downgraded small caps last week.
    The bottom line: this cycle and bull market likely have years to run. However, it’s running at a faster speed, and that means staying nimble and a bit more tactical with one's equity portfolio. Consider moving more mid-cycle sooner, rather than later.
    Audio and weekly Brief:
    https://morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-wilson
  • Private Investments (PRE-IPO) in your Funds? OK?
    I know a number of funds out there have long been investing in late stage, private, pre-ipo companies for awhile now - T. Rowe's Ellenbogen comes to mind. Do any of you have concerns with this?
    One one hand, it makes sense given how late companies have been waiting to IPO (though that seems to have changed in the last two years, especially with this SPAC party). Mutual funds used to particpiate much earlier in a companies stage of development since they IPOd early, thus we as public investors could be a part of a majority of the growth story (think Apple, Microsoft, etc). But again, that's not the case with many firms like Uber, etc.
    On the other hand, Woodford across the pond obvoiusly went too far with his fund and blew it up.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    @dstone42 that stinkin FLPSX is having a break out YTD. Sold it a few years ago. I believe Fidelity Equity Income is strong too and thankfully FSMAX.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @royal4 - that’s a fair question: “ What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover?”
    I ask myself that question regularly.
    But another way to look at it... how many times in history has the S&P 500 dropped 20-30 percent? The next question is... and when it has... how many times has it taken 3-5 years to recover? When I’ve examined that... I’ve found scarcity and not regularity. That gives me comfort.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    Every time I see a new thread about bonds I smile. Yes, I'm the exception and have done it for years. I retired in 2018, we need only 4% (maybe less) including inflation to keep our living standard for the next several decades. I still want to make 6% with SD < 3. I'm mainly a bond OEF trader, probably close to 90% are from bond OEFs. I have invested mostly in 2-3 funds which means I only need 2 great performing bond funds. So far I made much more in the last than the goal + SD=2.5%. YTD already several % up.
    More:
    1) All the money is invested, no cash. Only in high risk market I'm out. In the last 10-11 years I was out under 2%. Before that I was in all the time.
    2) Since the beginning in 1995 I hardly used alternative funds, definitely not for more than several weeks or a big %. I keep is simple, stocks, bond, and allocation funds.
    3) Many average Joe retirees that have enough can do the following. They have some cash flow (from SS + distribution + pension + can sell something), in good times they can sell stocks and in bad times they can sell some bonds. Some of these bonds should be a ballast for stocks which means in market meltdown they will go up or have minimal losses.
    4) Cash? I never believed in cash since the beginning even in retirement. You can have 3-6 months of living expenses and can sell something (per #3 above) 3-4 times annually. I never had an emergency I couldn't handle. I have used credit cards, then I have several thousands in cash and I can always sell my funds and get money in 2 days.
  • Baillie Gifford manager to retire
    It's not uncommon for investment management firms to have separate teams for different strategies. For example, here are RW Baird's equity teams:
    https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/baird-equity-asset-management/team#GrowthTeam
    Those divide along growth/value/int'l lines. For a company like Baillie Gifford that focuses on growth, its dividing lines are finer. Growth: large cap, or small cap, or all cap; "rapid" growth: broad or concentrated. Five different int'l teams with sometimes subtly different styles.
    HAIGX pulls from the all cap growth team, while VWIGX and BGESX pull from the rapid growth (broad) team, and BTLSX is managed by the rapid growth (concentrated) team.
    Here's BG's blurb on its five international equity strategies and teams;
    https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/funds/mutual-funds/baillie-gifford-international-equity-strategies/
    While some of the difference between HAIGX and VWIGX comes from Schroeders, much of it is due to the different BG teams managing the funds. You can test this by looking at the overlap between VWIGX and BGESX. The major (>2%) holdings of VWIGX that aren't in BGESX are Tesla (5.51%) and Illumina (2.30%). VWIGX has 13 holdings above 2%. All data from M* instant x-ray.
    Likewise, you can look at the overlap between VWIGX and SCIEX (for the Schroeder team). The pure Schroeder fund doesn't hold Tesla or Illumina. So maybe these holdings in VWIGX came from the Schroeder team, thoujgh Schroeders is less growth oriented than BG. We may never know.
    I'm glad you brought up HAIGX, because it serves to highlight an obscure attribute. Like many fund families, Harbor funds hire an in-house management company (Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc.) to manage the funds, to select and oversee the subadviser third party management firms (here, Baille Gifford Overseas Ltd.), and in the case of multiple subadvisers, to decide who manages what percentage of the funds.
    2021 Prospectus, p. 41 (pdf p. 44)
    When a Vanguard fund is managed by Vanguard, it hires The Vanguard Group as the management company. Though unlike Harbor, when a Vanguard fund outsources the day-to-day management of the fund it typically outsources the full management job. For these funds, the third parties are not subadvisors, but the actual advisors. The oversight responsibility is retained by the fund's board, as is the responsibility of deciding which advisory firm gets to manage how much of the fund.
    2020 Prospectus, p. 16 (pdf p. 18)
    This also means that what happens to VWIGX when Anderson retires in a year is up to the Vanguard fund's board. It could, for example, live with the remaining less experienced (by 16 or more years) BG fund managers while allocating a greater fraction of the portfolio to Schroeders. In that case, one might say that Schroeders would be the successor to Anderson.
    For example, this is what Vanguard did when Barrow retired from Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss:
    Vanguard had been slowly redistributing Windsor II’s assets to other subadvisers in the years since BHMS founder Jim Barrow, who had managed the fund since its 1985 inception, announced he was stepping down at the end of 2015. At the time of Barrow’s retirement, BHMS managed about 60% of the overall portfolio. That number was nearly halved over the past four years, with the firm managing 37% of Windsor II’s assets at last report.
    https://www.adviserinvestments.com/adviser-fund-update/vanguard-manager-firing-fails-to-fix-funds-faults/
    A bit more on BG's international growth strategy and portfolio construction group:
    https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/usa/professional-investor/literature-library/institutional-only-literature/philosophy-and-process/international-growth-philosophy-and-process/
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    I'm rather certain that over the long haul, you'd have reaped more profit from PRWCX than dividend-paying stocks. For years, the big Canadian banks have been my alternative fantasy portfolio. 90% of deposits in Canada belong to those big banks. There are only 5 or 6 of them. High dividends. Low P/E ratios. I would not go to BMO Bank of Montreal now, after recently learning here of their unethical shenanigans toward investors. But the others? Yes. My two favorites are CM and BNS. You're holding 15K in cash? Maybe you're very, very risk averse? If you just want the assurance of investing in solid companies that are not going to fold up and go bankrupt, and you crave the dividend income, then go for it. Just don't forget never to put all your eggs in one basket. Eh? CIBC: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/cm/quote
    Scotiabank: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/bns/quote
    But they are riding high, right now. EVERYTHING is riding high, or near all-time highs, even including the recent small (so far) drop-off. The Market's had a tremendous run-up since March of 2020. Wait for another pullback.
    :)
    Thank you, I'm on the same page with you about Canadian names, banks. For some reason, Canadian equities are more quality-oriented, and less P/E (less expensive).
    As far as risk-averse,...timing is (may not be the best personal investment quality) I invested in MSSMX (as in since the 2nd of January through mid-Feb, up 30%). Now in cash.
  • Can anyone please share if any of their Mut Fund holdings are in the green lately?
    To hopefully make those with losses feel better, I’ll go the other way. Back in 2010 I became convinced that the housing bubble/financial crash was really a gasoline price driven event and that gasoline would immediately go back to $4/gal. And in the process oil companies would benefit, So I bought some shares in IXC and the Canadian small cap index CNDA. 10 years later, my IXC investment is still underwater. CNDA shuttered years ago.
  • Finding the Right Benchmark for Your Portfolio
    Our benchmark remains FBALX. Yes, a bit "hot" for many in retirement, as an investment. Though not invested in the fund in 2008, it took a big hit, too; as with many other 70/30% funds. We have been able to get close to the 15 year return of 8.48, which has changed from about an average of 8.2% annualized as 2020 returns bumped this number. We attempt to get close to 7.5-8% annualized. 'Course, as expected, not unlike others; we've had the very good years get whacked by the poop years. Our largest portfolio benefit was to escape the 2000 and 2008 melts. Not fun to "make up" a portfolio loss from an actual sell. We have not yet decided whether FBALX will be a major percent holding when we stop meddling with our holdings. Our active would become a psuedo passive with FBALX management of the money.

    YTD, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year, 15-Year, Since Inception (7 periods time frame)
    Returns 3.78% 59.15% 14.23% 13.68% 11.03% 8.48% 9.76%
    Category Ranking % 21 32 7 4 3 4 7
    # of funds category 695 697 664 639 571 411 300
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    SP500 Index for money needed in 3 years?! What happens if in 2-2.5 years the SP500 index drops 20-30% and then takes 3-5 years to recover? You're going to be selling at the worse time. It's been so long people are starting to forget what can happen... most crashes/bear markets don't end as fast as 2020 did. I don't know, maybe that's the new normal fast down and fast back up since everyone carries the stock market around on their phone now.