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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    David you are being prudent and you've been to this rodeo before. Live in the present hindsight is 20-20. With all respect to you and your wife what would the conversation been like if you lost half your net worth?
    I think we all kind of know hussman is prolly right and these stonk markets are way overvalued and could easily come down by over half if not for the fed. We're just greedy and don't want to admit it to ourselves
    We've seen these disruptive, innovation type of fund managers get their lessons during turn of century. I would argue this time is even loonier and way more risky
    I spent a lot of time in the 90s in silicon valley. Real jobs, real men running real companies, not these poofs running bullspit companies that have way fewer employees and burn thru fairy tale cash
    Nothing wrong with sitting on heavy tbills and cash. Waiting like a tiger ready to pounce I'd rather get dinged by inflation than get drawn down by over 80%, like Nasdaq twenty years ago
    I still remember my friends faces a year ago when their portfolios got mowed down. Deer in headlights. Looked despondent. Remember CNBC and all the special report shows with the startling music, keep running the one shot with the empty store shelves, scaring the shett out of everyone
    Good luck to you and all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @davidmoran in this economy... with the wealth of investment choices... Why.... “have a lot of money earning zero too”?
    That’s not criticism ... I’m trying to learn what I don’t know. I’m looking out for a family member and asking the same questions... re investments and this market and conditions we are in.
    YTD S&P 500 is up 5.50%
    Tell me about it. Don't I know it. I will be interested in your own responses to your own questions.
    Where if anywhere will you put spare moneys? Where should I put moneys now which I will not need for a few years (not a decade, but not 3-4y either)?
    50-50 VTIP (GTO, MINT) and VONV (VONE, CAPE)? BND and BIV are down. Something additional into ARK and QQQ? Maybe.
    Shiller p/e is close to 36, higher than it has ever been since the Y2k peak-plunge. Each week it goes higher. I coulda written this post, and believe I did, any month of the last 8 or so. We are 2/3 out of market for the last 10mos. In some sense we have enough and are being prudent in retirement. Otoh my wife, not just me, would like to have, or have had, the several hundred thou we 'missed', if I had stayed the course and done nothing.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Hi @BenWP and @JonGaltIII et al
    As with most items deemed collectible; one finds scarcity, condition and a willing collector base, as critical measures, to achieve and maintain a forward motion in pricing (inflation offset). Auto auctions provide a view into a narrow area of collectibles.
    I have watched most of the Mecum Auctions on tv over the years and find that many of the cars that have been loved and properly maintained over many years by the "boomers" are finding their way to the market place. This is not an unexpected event. You (Ben) are likely well aware of the numerous collectible cars that are parked away in garages, in Michigan, over winter months and find their way to the roads come springtime. However, the boomers are, well; fading away. Generally, the family prefers the money of a sale and not the car.
    Several Mecum auctions in 2019 and more so, in 2020 found very large single collections being sold....i.e., 200 cars of every type. Realized prices for Mecum auctions may be found at their web site. One has to create an account and login. I don't know how much information they need for an account formation.
    What I see is a few cars do and have maintained pricing power for the few wealthy collectors still in place; but a large base of desirable cars are no longer finding the pricing the sellers were expecting.
    A humble observation from someone would has a decent knowledge of the 1962-1970 cluster of "muscle cars". I had a young man's fancy and pleasure of cruising Woodward Ave., Detroit, Mi, in the way back days, on a warm Saturday night. Kinda a silly thing to many, but I met many interesting folks along the way; as with engineers from the big 3 auto who had designed and built only 2 performance transmissions (Chrysler) that needed to be tested in the real world, or from GM engineers who designed and aluminum cast high performance intake manifolds.....oh, yes; that is correct, these are the only two at this time. Numerous summer, night time real world testing took place on the good and straight back roads between Detroit and Flint, Michigan. AKA, illegal drag racing.
    Thanks for letting me ramble a short story about some auto history.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    Why in the World Would You Own Bond Funds?

    I'm a few years away from retirement and am not comfortable with a 100% equity allocation.
    Higher quality bond funds have low correlations to equities and add ballast to one's portfolio.
    My bond allocation is lower than average (based on age) since current bond yields are depressed.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    FWIIW, @bee, auction results on the collectible/exotic car auction site, Bring a Trailer, are giving off a strong whiff of inflation. I’m not in the market, but my sense after lurking there for a few years is that car nuts are throwing a lot of cash around. For mundane examples of price rises, organic coffee at Aldi just went up 10% and beer went from $5.99 to $6.99, while molasses at Kroger just got jacked up 50 cents.
  • PTCRX (PTAM, Perf. Trust new fund.)
    @Crash, I think it's just more credit exposure, but of roughly the same sorts of credit as PTIAX. Even in PTIAX, they've broken out into a more multisector strategy than their old simple barbell of munis and non-agency mortgages.
    I've held PTIAX for years now. I think their strategy is a winner long term.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    A worry for retirees: Inflation forecasts hit 8-year high
    MarketWatch
    *The investment returns from their bonds and cash fell way behind.
    Https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-worry-for-retirees-inflation-forecasts-hit-8-year-high-11615768498
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/the-threat-retirees-face-from-higher-inflation-2021-03-12
    Inflation expectations have risen over the last couple of months
    Inflation is heating up, and retirees are worried.
    That’s because they are heavily invested in bonds, which suffer when inflation causes interest rates to rise. Just since the beginning of the year, for example, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund has lost 2.2% and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund has lost 10.8%. Those losses exceed the full-year gains those funds have produced in some recent years.*
    Think many retired folks may have adjust portfolio to get higher risks/achieve the returns they desired like others mentioned. Some say may need to worry, others say everything may balance out
    energy, agriculture, lower rated bonds/HY, stocks / energy maybe in big plays
  • William Bernstein at Morningstar
    Rudolph-Riad Younes and Richard Pell cost me a few dollars.
    I was an investor in Julius Baer Intl Equity (later Artio Intl Equity) from 2003 - 2011.
    BJBIX outperformed its Foreign Large Blend peers for many years under the tenure of Messrs. Pell and Younes. Morningstar wrote the following about managers Richard Pell and Rudolph-Riad Younes in April 2008.
    "They have outperformed the foreign large-blend peer group in every single calendar year since they took over in 1995, and they've beaten the MSCI EAFE in all but one year."
    Yahoo Finance indicates that the fund susbsequently lagged its Foreign Large Blend peers from 2009 - 2012.
    Messrs. Pell and Younes managed the fund until May 2013.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Here's additional current information from NPR on the likely COVID source:
    A member of the World Health Organization investigative team says wildlife farms in southern China are the most likely source of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    China shut down those wildlife farms in February 2020, says Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist with EcoHealth Alliance and a member of the WHO delegation that traveled to China this year. During that trip, Daszak says, the WHO team found new evidence that these wildlife farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan with animals.
    Daszak told NPR that the government response was a strong signal that the Chinese government thought those farms were the most probable pathway for a coronavirus in bats in southern China to reach humans in Wuhan.
    Those wildlife farms, including ones in the Yunnan region, are part of a unique project that the Chinese government has been promoting for 20 years now.
    "They take exotic animals, like civets, porcupines, pangolins, raccoon dogs and bamboo rats, and they breed them in captivity," says Daszak.
    The agency is expected to release the team's investigative findings in the next two weeks. In the meantime, Daszak gave NPR a highlight of what the team figured out.
    "China promoted the farming of wildlife as a way to alleviate rural populations out of poverty," Daszak says. The farms helped the government meet ambitious goals of closing the rural-urban divide, as NPR reported last year.
    "It was very successful," Daszak says. "In 2016, they had 14 million people employed in wildlife farms, and it was a $70 billion industry."
    Then on Feb. 24, 2020, right when the outbreak in Wuhan was winding down, the Chinese government made a complete about-face about the farms.
    "What China did then was very important," Daszak says. "They put out a declaration saying that they were going to stop the farming of wildlife for food."
    The government shut down the farms. "They sent out instructions to the farmers about how to safely dispose of the animals — to bury, kill or burn them — in a way that didn't spread disease."
    Why would the government do this? Because, Daszak thinks, these farms could be the spot of spillover, where the coronavirus jumped from a bat into another animal and then into people. "I do think that SARS-CoV-2 first got into people in South China. It's looking that way."
    First off, many farms are located in or around a southern province, Yunnan, where virologists found a bat virus that's genetically 96% similar to SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. Second, the farms breed animals that are known to carry coronaviruses, such as civet cats and pangolins.
    Finally, during the WHO's mission to China, Daszak said the team found new evidence that these farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, where an early outbreak of COVID-19 occurred.
    The market was shut down overnight on Dec. 31, 2019, after it was linked to cases of what was then described as a mysterious pneumonia-like illness.
    "There was massive transmission going on at that market for sure," says Linfa Wang, a virologist who studies bat viruses at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore. He's also part of the WHO investigative team. Wang says that after the outbreak at the Huanan market, Chinese scientists went there and looked for the virus.
    "In the live animal section, they had many positive samples," Wang says. "They even have two samples from which they could isolate live virus."
    And so Daszak and others on the WHO team believe that the wildlife farms provided a perfect conduit between a coronavirus-infected bat in Yunnan (or neighboring Myanmar) and a Wuhan animal market.
    "China closes that pathway down for a reason," Daszak says. "The reason was, back in February 2020, they believed this was the most likely pathway [for the coronavirus to spread to Wuhan]. And when the WHO report comes out ... we believe it's the most likely pathway too."
    The next step, says Daszak, is to figure out specifically which animal carried the virus and at which of the many wildlife farms.
  • A Roll-Your-Own TMSRX Alternative? [TRP's Multi Strategy Total Return Fund]
    I agree that 3 years performance is bit short in risking of not seeing the entire picture. The fund is set up as a defensive position.
  • Investing in Freedom - Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF - FRDM
    My bitch Lewis is that even to this day, despite the clear wording of the Declaration, white males are considered and treated like they are more equal than all the others. That imbalance extends to housing, healthcare, employment, opportunity, wages for equal work, freedom, you name it. It's still an uphill battle after 240+ years.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Re @bee’s above comments...
    We kicked this concept around here roughly a decade ago. I thought than it was totally WACKO.
    In hindsight, it would appear to me anyway that if a retiree is able to protect & grow his / her nest-egg during the crucial first decade following retirement, than (depending on circumstances) that person might be in a somewhat better position to assume greater market risk later on. Perhaps mentioned already - but if home equity has grown substantially over those years, it’s also an argument for taking on a bit more market risk.
    Why is the first decade so important? Because a large % loss than might prove more devastating than were it to occur later on after (1) net worth had increased appreciably and (2) life expectancy had decreased. All depends ...
    I never liked glide-paths and have assiduously avoided funds that incorporate them. Fine for people who pay little attention to markets and investing. But I’d rather have the ability to add or pull back on market exposure than to venture down the one-way street glide-paths seem to lock one onto. The experience in 2007-9 and to some extent in early 2020 demonstrate the advantage of being nimble rather than locked in.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    After years of accumulating a retirement nest egg using exclusively low cost, well diversified Target Date Funds, determine your income needs and allocate a portion of your portfolio to meet those income needs. Your Target Dated Fund (now very conservative) could be your funding source (4% rule).
    Slowly recast these funds out on the Target Date spectrum towards a higher equity weighting. This allows part of your portfolio to slowly move into a higher weighting in equities as you age and help avoid sequence of return risk early in retirement.
    Should Equity Exposure Decrease In Retirement, Or Is A Rising Equity Glide path Actually Better?
    Yet the research shows that rising glide paths can be so effective, they may actually lead to lower average equity exposure throughout retirement, even while obtaining more favorable outcomes. And ironically, it turns out that for those who do want to implement a rising equity glide path, the best approach might actually be to explain it to clients as a bucket strategy in the first place!
    should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better
  • A Roll-Your-Own TMSRX Alternative? [TRP's Multi Strategy Total Return Fund]
    A side by side comparison of the 3 above mentioned funds would show a similar “average” track over the past 3 years. Looks like by combining RPGAX and PBDIX you’d arrive at a return near that of TMSRX and a roughly similar degree of volatility.
    Umm ... Why are we doing a performance comparison for a fund barely 3 years old? I’d argue anything can happen over such a short period. As far as fees go, TMSRX engages in short sales of securities - a CYA tactic against steep equity losses. Funds that engage in shorting typically have higher costs due to borrowing cash to cover the shorts. At one time they were able to hide those costs inside a fund’s operating costs, but SEC regs a couple decades back required those to be shown in the ER - hence an elevated ER. As a relatively new fund, fees for TMSRX are probably higher now than what TRP will eventually establish as assets grow. (Getting to the front of the line sometimes costs extra.)
    PBDIX* is, of course, a plain vanilla intermediate term investment grade bond index fund with relatively low fees. I owned it during 2020, but unloaded it early this year in favor of shorter duration funds. RPGAX is a global balanced fund with an added 10% hedge fund exposure. Its managers do apply some interesting defensive tactics using derivatives. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re shorting something (likely a bond or equity index), but would expect that to be in substantially lesser proportion and less frequently applied than what TMSRX does.
    “Fond of TMSRX”? - All things are relative. I’d put it differently. TMSRX is a refuge for those “not fond” of either equity or fixed income valuations today. It’s a defensive fund.
    Disclosure: TMSRX represents 16-17% of portfolio.
    * Fund ticker symbol (PBDIX) was initially incorrect. Have corrected.
    -
    Here’s a tool that lets you run side by side comparisons of up to 5 funds for periods of 1, 3 or 5 years. It allows you to play around with time period covered as well as looking at both a linear graph and a side by side table comparison. Clicking “performance” pulls up a linear graph. One of the better tools I’ve come across and what I used in comparing the funds under discussion.
    https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/us/compare
  • IVA Worldwide and International Funds to liquidate
    I have no idea but I think the Frenchman kinda did a Barry Sanders (Detroit Lions)...just decided he had enough and is moving on.
    Of course Sanders arguably was on the top of his game and arguably next to #34 Walter was amongst the greatest running backs in the NFL.
    I just hope it was his decision and not some outside influence or other negative occurrence that caused the shut down. Was kind of weird that the other guy stepped away several months ago and now this. You get the feeling that in the coming years a fund like IVWIX would have greatly outperformed after some recent underperformance. Always darkest before dawn...
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Along these lines...inflation talk...anyone want to surmise a guess what I Bonds will reset to come May 1st? Do you think combined rate will be over 2% (at 1.68% now)...over 2.5%?? I think this will be the best investment going forward maybe for the next 10 years...I Bonds...maybe?
    I think the largest inflation we are going to experience going forward will be two fold: tax inflation up the ying yang and shrinkage inflation...have you bought a box of cereal lately...lordy, lordy, Tather Murphy's turning forty....it seems the jumbo box has turned into a single serve packet overnight!
    Gas over 3 bucks a gallon...we're just getting started with inflation...any thoughts on the ETF INFL??
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: I have the largest slice of our assets with TIAA because of my employment. My current plan is to move what’s now with Schwab and TDA to a brokerage account at TIAA so that my family will have only one wealth manager to deal with when I can’t or don’t want to be involved. I’ve been with the same advisor there for some 20 years, so I feel comfortable my heirs will be in good hands. Our arrangement will resemble moving into a retirement community that provides various levels of care starting with fully independent living and ending with that stage I don’t want to contemplate.
    @hank’s comments on the various TRP funds/strategies are right on. At this point, I’m using TMSRX as an alternative to cash and to part of what might normally be bonds for me. PTIAX remains, IOFAX is gone, and the remaining non-equity money is destined for one or two allocation funds, surely with TRP. I doubt I’d know of these options without MFO and its skilled commentators for which I’m grateful.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    @davidmoran- about 3 or 4 years ago- a long river cruise on a small boat through France and then a week or so over on the Italian Ligurian coast. Wonderful trip, for sure. Fortunately the virus was not really debilitating- just enough to knock me off my pace for a couple of weeks, and the trip on the rivers was pretty restful and easygoing physically.
    OJ
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    Several years ago it was @msf who brought the difference to my attention.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/129057/#Comment_129057
    It would be instructive to compare the two equivalent funds of the same year and see the % difference. Also there is an institutional series of TDF that requires $1M minimum to invest. They are for business retirement accounts and pension fund.
    TIAA is a good company for teacher retirement accounts. We use Vanguard index funds to invest for our kids 529 college funds. It is the power of compounding of invested $ that help us to achieve our goal. Same goal here to invest for retirement using T. Rowe Price.
    As we age we would like to reduce the complexicity of managing the portfolio by embracing target dated funds. When our mental capacity is reduced at later part of our lives, TDF would be very helpful to achieve our goal.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    TMSRX doesn't appeal to me, at first glance. I don't even know what TRP lists as being contained in its portfolio. But M* (my handy go-to) shows a single item. Feels like a "black box" to me. I'm glad to hear from you all. Being a rank amateur, I don't like to get fancy. To my mind, the advantage to RPGAX is its global reach. Yet I see not much at all in the portfolio that will benefit from small-cap successes. I suppose I'm already certain to hold onto smid-international PRIDX. My small-cap exposure is 11% of total. In the US, it isn't even 3% of my total. PRDSX.
    I've always, since I started investing, managed to paint myself into a corner. What I mean is: I started with a small stake from an inheritance, but after that, my stuff grew minutely, in baby-steps over time, with each paycheck. Wanting the tax advantage, virtually all of it went into my 403b. (I was lucky to be able to self-direct that baby.). I never had any stash in a standard, taxable account that I could rearrange freely. For years, I've resisted using an agent that can very easily move money around for me, like Jones or Schwab or the others. Now I'm fully committed to the "KISS" Principle, while babysitting the portfolio myself.