Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs I have experienced several market crash periods, in which several funds with low volatility for years, had dramatic losses during a market correction. In post-crash analysis, derivatives that were using leveraging and speculation, were blamed for the "surprisingly" large losses. When I see relatively new funds, which has large percentage investments in derivatives, I wonder how those derivatives are being used. It is hard to be sure, but often "suspect" leveraging and speculation, but hard to be sure. I tend to avoid them. Below is an AI article that explains that in more detail:
"Derivatives can both increase and decrease market volatility, though the overall impact is complex and depends on factors like market maturity, regulation, and how the instruments are used. While they can enhance stability through risk management and price discovery, high leverage and speculation can lead to amplified price swings and increased volatility. However, derivatives also increase information flow and liquidity, which, in mature markets, can lead to more efficient price discovery and reduced long-term volatility.
Factors contributing to increased volatility
Leverage and speculation:
Derivatives amplify exposure, meaning small price movements in the underlying asset can lead to large gains or losses, contributing to volatility.
Speculative trading:
When derivatives are used for speculation rather than hedging, they can attract destabilizing speculative activity, particularly in less mature markets.
High short-term reactions:
Derivatives can cause prices to react more sharply to new information, increasing short-term volatility.
Factors contributing to decreased volatility
Price discovery:
Derivatives markets facilitate faster price discovery as they incorporate new information, leading to more efficient markets.
Risk management:
By allowing participants to hedge against price fluctuations, derivatives can reduce overall market risk and contribute to stability.
Increased information flow:
The increased information flow from derivatives markets to the spot markets can accelerate this information absorption and reduce volatility.
Market maturity:
In more mature and efficient markets, derivatives are used more for risk management, and their price discovery role leads to more stable prices.
Conclusion
The relationship between derivatives and volatility is not a simple cause-and-effect. Derivatives can act as a double-edged sword: they offer valuable tools for managing risk and improving market efficiency but can also be used in ways that amplify volatility through speculation and leverage. The overall impact depends heavily on the specific market conditions and the regulatory environment."
Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs Hank,
Milken case was 36 years ago, not 66.
Higher Quality High Yield: Addition by Subtraction @Osterweis Interesting comp - they both returned about just over 5% annualized over the past 10 years, with SDs near 5. OSTIX had slightly lower SD. RSIIX had 79% positive return months vs. 70% for OSTIX.
Another Worthless ETF Would be interesting to know how many of these ETFs disappear within 1 to 2 years. Too many gimmicks.
Maxing out 401K contributions the (mid-)year I retire in 2026 Great. Thanks. No employer match to 401K. It all goes into a cash account plan. Same effect though, I will not get the full years contribution from them. My main impetus for the Roth build/conversion is to reduce RMDs, as you mentioned. I may also start them before age 73, as they could get out of hand quickly, especially when one of us passes and we have to file as "single".
Related, my circumstances with retirement are very unique. I am the only SME left in my company for this product line, and a very large customer is involved. They have asked me to stay until the last piece of equipment is retired from the customer's network, and until we shut down our lab dedicated to this product. Essentially, they know that I have very little to do and do not care. We have a signed support contract worth millions.
How they handle my leaving will be interesting. If they were to send me packing once the equipment is all gone, they would be on the hook for severance, and I would be entitled to unemployment pay. My guess is that they offer me a position on an associated product line, which I have no interest in pursuing. Thus, causing me to voluntarily retire. Which is fine, this whole situation has been extremely lucrative for myself and my wife.
Maxing out 401K contributions the (mid-)year I retire in 2026 Great thoughts. I considered switching this year, but I am already bumping against the next tax bracket due to liquidating an inherited IRA in 2025, for which we decided to take the hit now. Our lower income years will start in 2026, when I only work 1/2 a year. And onward, as we only have SS, my wife's small pension and investment income. I will accept the lump sum for my own pension, frozen since 2010.
We do already max out Roths for both of us each year. And we want to start more aggressive Roth conversions in 2027 and onward. That will be 5 years of Roth conversions before RMDs. We are both 66 this year. RMDs are certain to push us into the 24% bracket, so I am looking at future Roth conversions to mitigate that.
I know that going all-in on conversions is the best move, but it is still a bit overwhelming. The choice seems to be limiting the amount of income at the 24% level, as opposed to avoiding it altogether. If we are not careful, we could end up with income in the 32% bracket, eventually.
I was prepared to retire at 62, then came covid and work-from-home. It became so easy that I just stayed on the job. This has led to 5 additional years of Roths, waiting on SS until FRA, 5 more years of pay and 5 more years of maximum 401K contributions.
So, my "compromise" is to double up in the first half of 2026, all into Roth, and start Roth conversions the following year, when I no longer have a salary. I know that I should have started this earlier.
I do appreciate all feedback.
Maxing out 401K contributions the (mid-)year I retire in 2026 A lot would depend on your tax bracket, age & estimated income in retirement.
If you go for maxing regular 401k, you may gradually convert to Roth IRA in lower income years.
Mixing up may be a good compromise.
And why not start in 2025 - there are few months still to boost 401k contributions.
Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs Yield-curve control is something central banks to, not funds.
Most intermediate-term bond funds manage their yield-curve exposure by following strategies such as barbell approaches (i.e. loading up on ST and LT binds but skipping the belly, when appropriate), rolling-down-the-yield-curve (as years go by, maturity shortens, and if yield-curve is normal, the decline in yield will provide temporary gains - those gains will disappear at maturity), duration control (with futures; PIMCO does this a lot), etc.
Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs There are some rate-hedged bond etfs that might meet some people’s needs if they’re worried about significantly higher interest rates down the road. IGHG (investment grade bonds) AZGD (higher quality bonds)
I’ve been comparing IGHG out to 10 years against various income-oriented OEFs. It has yielded similar returns to BAMBX with just a bit more volatility. That’s probably deceptive because IGHB was saddled with extremely low prevailing rates over most that time. As one concerned about the longer term rate picture I would lean towards either of these over an unhedged fund.
Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs Securitized securities often carry another form of derivative risk, though it is hidden.
A mortgage borrower can usually prepay the mortgage, whether that's to refinance at a lower rate or because the borrower is selling the underlying property to move. That's a form of
embedded option. One of the risks it creates is called, not surprisingly, prepayment risk. The risk of a high yielding bond being paid off early.
This embedded option also creates extension risk. Homeowners may be less inclined to pay off their mortgages if rates are going up and they've locked in a lower rate for
years.
Investors typically look at duration - the first derivative, or slope, of the bond price vs. market interest rate curve. When looking at bonds with embedded options it can be important to look at the convexity or second derivative of that curve. Prepayment risk and extension risk affect the convexity to the detriment of the lender (bond holder).
Morningstar Category Revisions, 2025 M* Fund Category Definitions published 04/2025, available only in 09/2025 (don't know why M* does this every year!).
Changes, April 30, 2025
× Added Global Aggressive Allocation, Global Moderately Aggressive Allocation, Global Moderate Allocation, Global Moderately Conservative Allocation, Global Conservative Allocation, and Miscellaneous Allocation
× Retired Global Allocation and Leverage Net Long
× Revised text definitions of Aggressive Allocation, Moderately Aggressive Allocation, Moderate Allocation, Moderately Conservative Allocation, Conservative Allocation, Global Large-Stock Growth, Global Large-Stock Blend, Global Large-Stock Value, Global Small/Mid Stock
(
Domestic allocation/hybrid funds have 75%+ in US securities, global allocation/hybrid funds have (only) 25%+ in foreign securities. This would make most TDFs global, but TDFs are classified separately & there is no mention of US vs foreign securities in TDF descriptions.
Global stock funds have 25-80% in foreign stocks.)
https://pdfhost.io/v/ZA2TxpMej3_MStar_Fund_Categories_042025Note about PDF Host.
M* Methodology/Research documents are now for download only (some
years ago, they could be linked). M* Library isn't also easily searchable. But if you know the publication date, you can scroll through reverse-chrono order and locate the document. What I do is upload these documents to FREE
PDF Host site and link them. Yesterday, some could open these documents, others could not. I also had problems uploading documents yesterday. So, hopefully, PDF Host works better for posters now.
https://www.morningstar.com/business/insights/research/methodology-documents