U.S. economy may have its best chance in years to break from era of subpar growth 'As increasingly widespread covid-19 vaccinations signal a possible return to normal life, the United States is moving toward an unusual experiment that could produce an economy many Americans will not recognize — for better or for worse.
Factories are humming and consumers are spending again, signs that the United States could emerge from the current health crisis with its strongest growth in decades. Goldman Sachs expects the economy to expand this year at an annual rate of 7 percent, the fastest pace since President Ronald Reagan proclaimed “morning again in America” in 1984.
The question is whether that fast-paced rebound can be made to last, freeing the nation from the low-growth rut it has plowed for most of the past 20
years, or will instead ignite the sort of inflation that has not been seen since the 1970s. Prominent economists such as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers already are warning that potential overheating could end in a new recession."
WaPo Article by David Lynch
Bridgewater Shakes Up Leadership After a Loosing Year “Bridgewater Associates is shuffling its management ranks after one of the most challenging years in the hedge-fund giant’s history ... Bridgewater is also creating an investment committee ‘to broaden the decision making’ ... “
“After posting its worst monthly loss in history in March, Bridgewater’s flagship fund, Pure Alpha, ended the year down 7.6%. A more leveraged version of the fund lost 12.6%. The performance suffered in comparison to banner years by other prominent macroeconomic investors. Rokos Capital Management and Caxton Associates, for example, notched returns of 44% and 42.2% for the year in their master and flagship funds, respective.” Article
Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others Fund has been around for
years but has had a lackluster performance. Fund changed its investment style from domestic micro cap fund to predominately health/biotech micro/small cap fund.
Website states that management would close the fund when it gathers $100m in assets.
http://www.perkinsfund.com/performance.html
College Endowment Returns Plummet in Most Recent Year “The study findings, released Friday, portend a long era of muted returns for higher education institutions, which will likely encourage them to have a fresh look at financial and investment strategies in order to meet critical return targets and sustain their mission of providing urgently needed support to students. The new study was based on responses of 705 institutions representing $638 billion in endowment assets, and covers the fiscal year July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020.”“Endowments’ average one-year returns were 1.8% as of June 30, compared with 5.3% for the previous fiscal year. The historical target return for endowments has been 7.5%, comprising spending requirements, but in recent years, endowments have been challenged to meet this target, according to the study.”ArticleNOTE - Study may be a bit misleading since it measures the one-year returns as of June 30 - shortly after the pandemic induced selloff. However, 1.8% seems like a dismal one-year return. My sense is that both 2019 and 2020 were pretty good
years for most investors - despite the March / April pummeling.
Did anybody receive 1099 form for IOFIX? I have owned IOFIX for several years but also traded it several times at Fidelity and Schwab. I checked my 1099-DIV for 2018,2019 Nondividend Distributions and they were at zero. To tell you the truth, I really don't care, I just copy all these numbers to my tax software annually.
when is time to bail on junk? was watching Druckenmiller interview w/ GS. He was saying that he buys the junk bond crash every 7 years it seemed to him but didn't own them long term.
When is time/what will be the signs to sell the junk bond funds like ARTFX? What do you think the current yield of that fund is?
Musk trashes cash / defends bitcoin purchase. “I’m not an investor, I am an engineer.” I hear you loud and clear
@sven on valuations and equity P/E... BUT... the stories covering that topic and sending out the alarms have been have been increasing in frequency the last 3
years. Then in March it was an I told you so moment but it ended up not being.
@derf I’m open to learning the value of bonds. Heck.. I’ve even admitted that I own a bond fund in each of my accounts. I’m trying to be conservative and note- I’m not yet relying on investments for retirement income. I’m not retired. When I do... perhaps I’ll pay even closer attention to them. It’s just for the last 10 plus
years... I don’t understand how I benefitted from owning them when just comparing to an S&P 500 Index.
Still - love the conversation here and learning different perspectives.
Musk trashes cash / defends bitcoin purchase. “I’m not an investor, I am an engineer.” Article in the FT today partially addresses the issue. Hard to link to it if no subscription. It’s the top one in the attached search query.
Try thisArticle:
Should equity investors worry about rising interest rates? - Michael Mackenzie
Excerpt:
“Bullish sentiment remains very high. The latest monthly survey of global fund managers by Bank of America this week highlighted that cash levels in portfolios are being cut to their lowest level in eight years”.
