PRWCX is one of the best risk/reward moderate allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years.
VWIAX is one of the best risk/reward conservative allocation funds in the last 5-10-20 years.
PIMIX is one of the best Multi sector bond funds 2008-2018.
So, when they tell you can't get FREE LUNCH, I have eaten free lunch for over 20 years.
Defining free lunch:
when you get better performance at similar SD.
when you get similar performance at lower SD.
And the best is...when you get better performance at lower SD.
Example for the third choice...PV(link) PRWCX vs SPY since 2000. Sharpe+Sortino are also good indicators.

I have been a Baron's shareholder for years, although I never went to his shareholder events every year where some Mega star shows up. Having said that I got nervous when his kids started showing up as fund mangers, and left five or ten years ago.
I did leave a chunk of my Daughter's IRA in BPRTX, although it is leveraged 30% and has had huge drawdowns (47% tin 2020 and 60% in 2009)
Having said that we just sold half because TSLA is 47% of the fund. Baron may have sold some TSLA, but so far this year BPRTX's return is 50% of TSLA; you would expect more if it is leveraged
I think his investment philosophy is sound, but letting a mutual fund to become nearly a one stock vehicle is too risky. We have all seen what happened with Sequoia and Fairholm when that happened.
I would start small and wait for a significant pullback, and only use money you won't need in 10 years.

"the groundhog just saw his shadow which means six more weeks of winter. "
THE groundhog? If we're talking prognosticators, shouldn't we go with the better track record?

It turns out Staten Island Chuck is, on the whole, more reliable than Phil of Punxsutawny, if you look at the past years data:
How Often Are Our Local Groundhogs Right?
Based on 24 predictions since 1992, as measured against data from the National Climate Data Center
[Bar Chart]      Punxsutawney Phil 43%      Staten Island Chuck 65%

https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/data-staten-island-chuck-or-punxsutawny-phil-which-groundhog-is-historically-more-accurate
"Staten Island Chuck claimed that spring is imminent." But there are allegations of fake news: "Chuck's prognostication was suspiciously made in a pre-taped Staten Island Zoo video."
Since this is an investing site and predictions seem to be the subject, one must consider the Super Bowl indicator. Clearly the Chiefs represent the AFC. But what about the Buccaneers? For its first season the team was in the AFC. Does that mean it's a sure bet that the market will fall this year (since there's arguably no team originally from the NFC)?
Not so fast. The accuracy of this indicator goes down as attendance declines. With the pandemic, attendance (excluding cutouts) will be the lowest ever.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/does-the-super-bowl-indicator-work
Lies, darn lies, and statistics.

@rono- As I'm sure that you'll remember, we have a large stash of 90% silver quarters that we've been sitting on for some sixty years. This morning I said to my wife "hey, we're rich again!".
Then I observed that yes, we could in fact sell into this market for a fair amount of money- maybe the best chance since the Hunt brothers. But we already have a good-sized pile of small green pieces of paper with numbers printed on them, of steadily decreasing worth, and which no one wants to borrow if they have to give us more pieces of green paper to do so.
So what's the point of converting the silver to even more pieces of green paper? Maybe better to keep the silver against the day when no one wants to trade anything of value for those small pieces of green paper.
You never know.
OJ

Thanks, @bee
A form of the words I've pushed upon folks for a number of years.
Sadly, never many takers, or thinkers. For some, as I've witnessed; they would prefer $70k into an ego version of themselves with a super-duper truck; or similar monies into other toys.

I've held AKREX/AKRIX for several years now and have not been disappointed. It is my number two holding right now and although I plan on reducing it by three percent in the coming year or two (rebalancing), it will still be 2 or 3 in my portfolio.
Whether to keep it not depends on your need and expectation. It is not a high-flying fund, in fact, although it is very concentrated it is still LOW risk and somewhat defensive.
I am not worried about Mr. Akre stepping aside, there are two very capable managers in place now. Mr. Neff since 2014 (2009 w/Akre) and Mr. Cerrone just last year (2012 w/Akre).
I am giving them a year or two before I make a decision. If I do bail, it will be gradual because I have significant LCG. All funds go through periods of "under-performance"; so far 2021, not good. Was last year a "little" disappointing (relatively speaking) for some, maybe, BUT I will take 21% EVERY YEAR!!!
As has been mentioned to me numerous times, has the reason you purchased the fund changed? Its scope or approach? Asset bloat affecting performance, etc.
Good luck with your decision!!!
Matt

Although my time frames are fuzzy, I held this fund around ten years ago and sold it a year or two later based on similar performance deterioration. Then, I watched AKREX recover and outperform and got back in several years ago, and now plan on maintaining my position, monitor, and reassess in a few months. At only 1% of my portfolio not a major impact.

I held AKREX from 7/2016, eventually it was my number 1 holing. By early 2020, I detected weakness in this fund. Started selling in April 2020 and nothing left on 6/29/2020. I know Mr. Charles Akre since the time he managed a small cap fund specialize in Finance sector and was # 1 for many years. he sold it to other mutual fund. Made lots of money from that fund. Then AKREX was formed. In my post dated 7/27/2020, I suggested to dump this fund for several reasons....Now, Mr Akre has retired.

Thanks for the clarification. My condolences to his family and friends.
Just received an email from GP concerning him:
February 1, 2021
Dear Fellow Investors,
It is with great sadness that we announce the death of our dear friend and colleague, Keefer Babbitt. Keefer was not only a great partner and friend, he also set the bar extremely high as it relates to his work. His character, work ethic, depth of thought and the quality of his output were greatly admired by all of us at Grandeur Peak. Keefer joined Grandeur Peak in 2012 as one of our first interns, and over the past 8+ years he has been a true builder of our firm. He made an enormous difference here and he will be greatly missed.
Keefer's current roles included co-managing the Global Contrarian Fund alongside Mark Madsen and Robert Gardiner, co-managing the Global Reach Fund with six other portfolio managers, contributing on our Industrials team, and of course first and foremost serving as a global research analyst. Given our unique team-based approach, we do not anticipate making any immediate changes to the portfolio management of either fund.
If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or a member of our Client Relations Team.
Best Regards,
Eric

@rsorden
.......Type the name of the pieces you own in the search box at the top of the Ebay link below to discover current pricing of your pieces; IF they are listed for sale at Ebay. The link is active for your use for whatever else at Ebay.
If silver bullion pricing moves a lot above and beyond its "normal" range for the past 10 years, then, IMHO; the bullion price will overwhelm the collectible price, with the exception of truly collectible pieces; which would likely reside in the rare coin area.
Folks will again start to unload "melt silver" coins and related items. The jewelry stores and pawn shops will have a lot of traffic. This was the pattern that persisted for about 6 months in the late '70's.
I've used Ebay for many years to determine what the general public is willing to pay for item "x" to have and hold in their hand, not an etf or other investment market device. The below link is for "closed auctions/bids" for silver bullion related items. This list will continue to update as auctions/bids close. This is a long list that one may scroll through to older dates.
Closed auction prices, Ebay.
ADD: Silver retail sites freeze from demand

If you evaluate these funds through the full market in 2020, the list may get considerable smaller. FMI funds, for example, was 3 alarm funds last years as noted on this discussion board

I saw this list in the M* article. Pretty hard to create a more obvious list than this for suggested core holdings.
Lemme get this straight: Buy a Total Stock Market index and/or S&P 500 Index for your core holding? Duh.
Moving past the obvious, if you remove ALL of the (unbelievable number of) Total Stock Market Index and S&P 500 Index, what do you really have?
One that you have is OAKMX, a 2-star, dog of a fund that's been mired in 3+ consecutive years of horrific underperformance, that you couldn't pay me to own. Pretty much ditto on FMIHX which is already DOWN 3+% YTD.
The author should have just stuck with the obvious.

Hi Old Joe,
It's good to hear from you. As you likely know I retired almost 25 years ago. At that time no Monte Carlo-like codes were available to me so I wrote my own simple version of that tool. It served me well but was not all inclusive.
Today's versions of that tool are much more complete and powerful. They will aid potential retirees in making good decisions. I will always take the opportunity to encourage their application for that purpose.
That 's surely a far distant application from their original use which was to help design the atomic bomb. The current applications are a tiny bit more sedate but more widely applied. The investment industry is a most frequent user to help in the retirement decision making process. But you knew that already.
Added comment: If a professional advisor does not make use of a sophisticated Monte Carlo tool, he or she is short changing his client. Monte Carlo is certainly not the total picture but can be a significant input. It is available so it should be exercised.
Best Wishes

Grantham and GMO usually makes predictions over the next seven years. This is different in that he’s saying the downturn could happen in the coming months, that we are near the top. Also, the extremity of the collapse he’s predicting is new.

OK...MSSMX UP 150% in 2020. UP 30% YTD.
Read it again slowly and try to understand it.
On the short squeeze question, speaking generally to all readers/posters...
I would caution limiting one's concerns about this issue to just SCs and/or any specific fund, e.g., MSSMX. This is potentially a very large, diverse problem that could affect investors in many ways, yet TBD, and may be affecting some/sevral of your holdings unbeknownst to you right now. That said...
Most recent portfolio data, even on the MS site, is from 09/30/20. It does NOT appear any of the short squeeze companies*** are held by MSSMX, at least not in the top ~50%-60% of its holdings. Invite others to look for some as well - could have missed one.
***UPDATE: SFIX is on both the Fido holdings and Short Squeeze company lists below (as a 5.21% holding per Fido list) but not sure if it's a problem child short.
Also note:
(1) These are dated holdings lists and much could have changed in the 4th Qtr and/or Jan 2021. Unless there were significant changes, does NOT appear to be a problem. (If it is, it's currently a GOOD problem to have. Just sayin'.)
(2) Keep in mind this is Morgan Stanley we're talking about here. If anybody stands a chance of being on the right side of how these squeezes turn out, I like my chances teaming up with them.
(3) I am NOT recommending that any readers/posters BUY/HOLD this fund. If you are considering doing so, do so after your own DD and at your own risk/peril. Like all MFs, it does NOT come with a warning label and "Nobody rings a bell" when it's time to consider getting out. (Thanks Art Cashin!)
(4) If you do BUY it, note that Dramamine is not included with your purchase.
(5) Lastly, and FWIW, it is an (intended, at least) LT hold for me and like they say, I'm "Enjoy(ing) the ride!"
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/registered-investment-advisor/product-and-performance/mutual-funds/us-equity/inception-portfolio.shareClass.I.html
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/61744J614?type=o-NavBar
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-biggest-short-squeezes-in-the-stock-market-including-gamestop-and-amc-11611842270
@Graust I recall you helping me several times over the years. Happy to have reciprocated at least in part. Be sure to Buckle Up on this one.

Grantham. Excellent reputation. But my own "cup of meat" is more along the lines of Barry Ritholtz and the ones connected to his firm. I know you cannot just OPINE your way into making things true, the way you want them to be. (Cue the QAnons in this slot, here.) But Ritholtz is refreshingly direct, savvy and with wisdom gained from a lot of experience:
• "And in the End . . . How does this spasm of speculation conclude? I have a high degree of confidence in my answer: The same way it always does.
There will be tears, massive losses by some and big gains by others. There will be lives ruined and lessons learned among the claims of a rigged market, insider trading, and fraud. Maybe even people go to jail (maybe not). As Wall Street runs red with proverbial blood, a few clever bastards will notice the “generational buying opportunity” — the fourth such rare entry point over the past 20 years."
https://ritholtz.com/

What really concerns me is that this similar to the Madoff investors...hear me out...they were all "ok" with it as long as they were making money.
We were all "ok" with this "artificial", central bank driven, ponzi scheme market as long as we were making money and our portfolio grew over the past dozen years.
Now, we are ok with the Hedgie Big Shots getting hammered by the Reddit "Bro" crowd.
Just like folks kinda, maybe, shoulda, ya, sure, obvious knew Madoff was total fraud as who the heck could generate consistent returns like that over time...in hindsight...we'll say, ya, we kinda, maybe, shoulda, ya, sure the market has been total fake BS the past dozen years.
Now...the hedgies get clocked and we are ok with it but wait this thing turns systemic real quick and our portfolio's get drawn down by 50%-60%...then and only then we are going to have a problem with the Reddit/WSB approach, no?
Open your eyes! Be careful!
Best Luck and Good Health to All,
Baseball Fan

Very interesting...goes against the Wall Street idiom, "if the VIX is high, it's time to buy"..."be greedy when others are fearful"...
Of course FD1K appears to have done very well timing the market over the years, not being sarcastic, I've seen some of his posts where he backs up his statements.
Good Luck to All,
Baseball Fan

@FD1000 said:

I have several criteria but the easiest one is the VIX, when...VIX>30 get ready...VIX>35 start selling...VIX>40 rapid selling. The catch of course is not to stay out for longer term. I have been out of the market about 3% of the times in the last 10 years.

This week seems to be one of those moments to watch the VIX.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX?p=%5EVIX

That’s very helpful @Baseball_Fan. When Professor Snowball profiled ARTTX in its first set of clothing he pointed out that there was no measurable management record for Mr. Smith. As you rightly say, he now has a record at Artisan and it is plausible to attribute some of his skills to having learned on several jobs. The bogey for the Focus fund is the S&P 500 according to Artisan materials, while M* has it in the LG category. There are few LG funds that haven’t done well in the past 3 years. I wonder if the risk control measures will serve shareholders well once we get into a period when LG is not the only game in town. I’ll keep an eye on this fund, now that you have piqued my curiosity. Longs and shorts got nailed today, making me wonder if there’s anywhere to hide. I put some $ in EM ESG and SCV. Best of luck.
.