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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    That’s very helpful @Baseball_Fan. When Professor Snowball profiled ARTTX in its first set of clothing he pointed out that there was no measurable management record for Mr. Smith. As you rightly say, he now has a record at Artisan and it is plausible to attribute some of his skills to having learned on several jobs. The bogey for the Focus fund is the S&P 500 according to Artisan materials, while M* has it in the LG category. There are few LG funds that haven’t done well in the past 3 years. I wonder if the risk control measures will serve shareholders well once we get into a period when LG is not the only game in town. I’ll keep an eye on this fund, now that you have piqued my curiosity. Longs and shorts got nailed today, making me wonder if there’s anywhere to hide. I put some $ in EM ESG and SCV. Best of luck.
    .
  • Some questions on Emerging market funds ?
    I just took a flying leap into MSAUX (pj) to “compliment” MGGPX and augment my Minuscule foreign investment.
    I still believe the US is where to invest, but a little International might be advantageous and a provide a smidgen of “diversification”.
    I chose it over FSEAX because of the tax efficiency. Outside of FSEAX this ms fund beats just about all peers in metrics and returns.
    My major trepidation is 2019 & 2020 were very good years. Is 2021 and beyond going to be sub-par, if not negative?
    Of course, this is a planned long-term investment, but ........
    Any thoughts, suggestions or opinions?
    Thx. Matt
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    @BenWP
    I don't believe ARTTX and VLSAX have similar strat's. I like ARTTX as it is a "risk-aware, not specifically L/S" fund and the way I understand it is there is an associate on board whose role in managing the portfolio is focused on risk management thru use of options or other, etc. The fund is run using a very process oriented approach and has out performed the SP500 by a substantial margin since inception. I like his pedigree from where he used to work at a couple hedge funds, likely learned quite a bit and took away "best practices" experience.
    VLSAX, run by KAR investments out of LA focuses long high quality, high ROIC, history of resilient earnings growth, minimal debt stock, short, low quality, high leverage, poor cash flow, declining financial metrics stocks
    per July 2020 Value Investor (apologies to you and the board as I can't seem to get the linking thing down, argh, I kept looking for a post on how to do that from the past, can't find it). Another good article about ARTTX if you Google, morningstar, an up and comer from top notch fund group, July 2019
    Lineage
    While each successive manager typically customizes along the way, it’s not
    uncommon in the investment business
    for strategies to be passed from generation to generation. Christopher Smith of
    Artisan Partners provides a representative case in point. The founding portfolio manager of the firm’s Focus Fund –
    which was launched in 2017 and now
    manages $1.3 billion in assets – Smith
    takes an “industry-first” approach to
    identifying attractive equity opportunities, looking initially for industries with
    what he believes are accelerating profit
    cycles and then for the companies that
    are priced right and best positioned to
    profit from them. He learned the basics
    of the approach from Karsch Capital's
    Michael Karsch [VII, March 31, 2010],
    who learned it from Duquense Capital’s
    Stanley Druckenmiller.
    With three years under his belt at Artisan, Smith's rendition of a thematic
    approach since its April 2017 launch
    has earned a net annualized 23.8%, vs.
    10.9% for the S&P 500
    Good Luck to All,
    Baseball Fan
  • Grandeur Peak Global Advisors' 4th quarter 2020 newsletter
    I think you are referring to P. 17. All GP funds out-performed their respective benchmarks by a large margin for 5+ years. Also many GP funds are Great Owl funds. What makes GP differs from other mutual fund family is close their funds at fairly low asset level (well less than $500 millions). Also they stay within their competency/expertise in the mid-small-micro cap space unlike other shops that keep on expanding just to attract new $.
  • Time for Hussman? High Grade Rubies? Artisan Focus ARTTX
    Better off going to cash than investing with Hussman.
    This is very good financial advice!
    "Obviously, Hussman turned into a 'perma-bear,' calling for disaster constantly (and wrongly). Hussman still insists that he will be vindicated, and criticizes those who would 'declare victory at halftime.' He criticized 'declaring victory at halftime' previously six full years ago (that’s one long halftime). Hussman wants us to believe that he’s not wrong, merely right but early. However, if you keep making the same wrong call over and over, you don’t get any credit for it when you’re (eventually) right."
    "Through 2019, Hussman’s Strategic Growth fund has suffered a 10-year average annual 'return' of -7.54 percent, compared to a 13.24 percent average annual gain by its benchmark, the S&P 500. Despite exceptional early returns, the fund not only badly trails the S&P since inception, it is now a money loser since inception. Notwithstanding this terrible performance, Hussman keeps charging investors 1.25 percent annually to lose their money."
    Link
  • Small Caps
    Yes, I'd forgotten about the $5M entry, but my wife was in that one for a few very profitable years--- but via her 403b.
    That's what I was thinking, 401k or 403b.
  • Small Caps
    My offering to this discussion on small-caps: VSCIX Vanguard. Index.
    Excellent choice, up to a point.
    VSCIX has a $5M minimum for all types of accounts. I own VSMAX with a slightly lower minimum.
    Yes, I'd forgotten about the $5M entry, but my wife was in that one for a few very profitable years--- but via her 403b.
  • Mutual fund SVARX
    little5bee said: "I wonder if the outperformance is from buying distressed funds..."
    I don't have a clue what the manager's secret sauce is, but SVARX's "outperformance" since its inception in 2013 seems to indicate that he knows what he is doing. Besides, he has over $1 million of his own money in the fund.
    M* ranks the fund #1 in the "non-traditional" bond category for 1, 3 and 5 years, and MFO gave it a "Golden Owl" and put it on its Honor Roll.
    During the past 5 years, its largest monthly loss was 1.28% in May of 2019, and during last year's market crash, SVARX actually gained 0.97% in February and lost only 0.92% in March. With a pleasing standard deviation of 5.36% and an excellent Sortino ratio of 4.94, what's not to like?
    The fund has certainly made me good money and I will, of course, keep a close eye on it. If the manager should loose his Midas touch at some point, I will not hesitate to press the sell button.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • 9 Uncomfortable Facts About the U.S. Stock Market
    So, I write an article: Facts about the 9 favorite vegetable plants, planted by Midwestern families, in summer gardens.
    I finish my article with: I don’t know what you might want to do with mixing or matching these vegetables for recipes in cooking, as you'll have to make that choice.
    Did my title mislead the reader? I don't think so. I never suggested from the title that I was going to do anything but provide some data points about the vegetables; not suggest cooking recipes.
    I found Mr. Carlson's data points of interest and will presume they are accurate. I did not expect any suggestions as to where the markets are pointed, either up or down; or suggested actions for the retail investor.
    @bee Thank you for your numerous links, charts and graphs; and comments over the years, since joining the new "MFO" in April, 2011; as member number 24.
    Respectfully,
    Catch
  • T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund management change
    Here is a email that I received from T Rowe Price:
    Important: T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF Portfolio Management Updates
    We are writing to inform you that Larry Puglia portfolio manager of the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy, including the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio, and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF, intends to retire from portfolio management at the end of 2021. Effective October 1, 2021, Paul Greene, currently the associate portfolio manager of the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy, will succeed Larry.
    For the past 30 years, Larry has worked in the U.S. Equity Division at T. Rowe Price. He began his career as an analyst covering the financial services sector. He also ran the Financial Services Equity Strategy before incepting the US Large-Cap Core Growth Equity Strategy in 1993.
    We are pleased that Paul has accepted this new role. This is a natural next step for Paul, who has 14 years of investment experience, all with T. Rowe Price. He has worked closely with Larry for years, and he is very familiar with the strategy’s investment approach and all of the holdings and sectors in the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio, and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF. He has also been a member of the strategy’s Investment Advisory Committee since 2010.
    Like Larry, Paul began his career at the firm as an analyst. Paul also took on portfolio management responsibilities, leading the Communications and Technology Equity Strategy for nearly seven years as well as serving as sector leader of our media/telecommunications team.
    Thank you for the confidence that you have placed in T. Rowe Price.
    Please click here to download a prospectus for the T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund and T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF.
    All funds are subject to market risk, including the potential loss of principal.
    This communication does not undertake to give investment advice in a fiduciary capacity. T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services.
    T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.
    From Morningstar:
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1019030/t-rowe-price-blue-chip-growths-manager-to-retire
  • T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund management change
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177321000034/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated June 23, 2020
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
    T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since inception as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
    The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
    ETF785-041 1/26/21
  • T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund management change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/902259/000174177321000031/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Funds
    Supplement to the following Prospectuses, each as dated below (as supplemented):
    May 1, 2020
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Portfolio
    December 15, 2020
    T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Greene joined T. Rowe Price in 2006.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective October 1, 2021, Larry J. Puglia will step down as a portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Paul D. Greene II will succeed Mr. Puglia to become portfolio manager of the fund and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    During the past five years, Mr. Greene has served as a portfolio manager for other
    T. Rowe Price Funds and has assisted the portfolio manager in managing the fund since January 1, 2020 as an associate portfolio manager. He joined the Firm in 2006 and his investment experience dates from that time.
    The date of this supplement is January 26, 2021.
    G24-041 1/26/21
  • Fund recommendations for an 18 year old
    @BenWP
    Thank you for your GREAT additional detail - was not aware of some of it.
    And yes, the decision between one of the MS WS funds and BGAFX was a tough one. All excellent funds. But I chose MIGPX over BGAFX probably due mostly to my greater familiarity, experience and trust in MS funds, but could have just as easily selected BGAFX. With the likelihood that I will want to continue increasing my foreign exposure this year/in the coming years, BGAFX will stay on my radar and will likely be the next add.
    Bottom Line: It's great to have so many excellent choices in WS and Foreign funds these days, the best Foreign pure play of which I consider to be VWILX/VWIGX, a fund whose performance routinely provides upside surprises.
  • Fund recommendations for an 18 year old
    Not to worry, it was a great exercise for me to help insure that my personal take on both of these funds is correct. YMMV on that.
    FWIW, as a bit of history, I owned MGGPX though much of its outperformance years, sold it around the time of the 2020 crash, and switched to MIGPX a bit later in 2020. Little did I know at the time what it was about to do. My primary reason for buying into MIGPX in lieu of MGGPX was their respective AUM and manager compositions.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Yes. FPA and Queens Road merged several years ago. Steve Scruggs has been running the small cap fund since 2002. While value funds have been out of favor versus growth, this small cap value fund still managed to gain a modest 13%.
    This is one way to diversified away from the FANNG stocks.
  • EM ESG Options
    It's not always easy to gauge a fund's style from its sectors, or its countries for that matter. For example, while companies in the financial sector tend to be value investments, that doesn't make something like Robinhood's anticipated IPO a value play.
    In any case, according to the FSEAX's latest monthly fact sheet (Dec 31), just 9.19% of the portfolio is in financials, down from 11.07% at the end of November. In comparison, technology accounts for about 1/3 of the fund.
    Zhao says that he has "reduced some positions ... that have done well and added to those that are more exposed to the value side [i.e. those that have not done well]. ... it only makes sense to take some profits off the table and begin to plan what might come next."
    That sounds more like rebalancing than a change it target weighting. The interview is dated Oct 31. M*'s factor analysis based on the fund's Nov 30th portfolio shows the fund to be more toward the growth side of the value/growth spectrum than in any time over the past five years, and also more growth focused than the category average.
    Regarding countries: FSEAX counts the 12% of its portfolio in Korea as EM. Most index providers consider Korea a developed country. MSCI is the laggard, still calling Korea an EM country - because the won isn't traded 24 hours/day, not because its gross national income is too low or its stock market too small (they're not).
    Some investors posit that separate international funds are not needed because so many domestic countries derive much of their revenue globally. By that reasoning, what are we to say about TSMC (6% of the fund)? Is it really an EM company? Based in Taiwan, it gets 60% of its revenue from the US.
    None of this is meant to suggest that FSEAX isn't good at what it does. Rather it's to suggest taking a closer look at this, or any fund, to understand what it's really doing.
  • EM ESG Options
    @BenWP yes that caught my eye too in the fund. They're sector exposure is also very interesting with strong weightings in consumer cyclical, financials, and industrials. So it is more value oriented. I havent bought it yet but watching it. Another fund Im really intrigued by is MATFX. Pull it up on Morningstar and you'll see it scores in the top 10% for pretty much every period from 1 week through 5 years. Ive been following the manager for awhile now. Very sharp guy. This is a growth fund focused on disruption. At some point I'll buy one of these or add to FSEAX.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Grantham ties a close at hand deadline to his bubble call and warns more generally about future inflation:
    ‘We will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last, desperate chips into the game, and then an even more spectacular bust…When you have reached this level of obvious super-enthusiasm, the bubble has always, without exception, broken in the next few months, not a few years.
    “If you think you live in a world where output doesn’t matter and you can just create paper, sooner or later you’re going to do the impossible, and that is bring back inflation,” Grantham warned.
    https://pionline.com/investing/grantham-warns-biden-stimulus-further-inflating-epic-bubble
    https://marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-legend-sees-few-weeks-of-putting-your-last-desperate-chips-into-the-gamethen-pop-11611347617?siteid=yhoof2
  • EM ESG Options
    Good point, @MikeW: the Matthews fund, MASGX, has done really well in recent years. Over a five-year span it is tied in total return with the Calvert ESG entry, CVMAX. MASGX made up a lot of ground in the past two years. One of the nice things about the Matthews fact sheets is that they tabulate the exposure of the fund to various countries while showing how the exposure differs from the benchmark. MASGX is underweight China and overweight India and Japan (which accounts for zero in the index). Someone here lamented the passing of the Matthews Asia value fund; was that a result of a manager departure?
  • Small Caps
    WMICX may close at any time as AUM have grown significantly and its performance over the past several years have drawn investors' attention and money.