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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Strange but true. Figures (as I noted a few posts ago) are from Fidelity's "Key Statistics" page for the respective companies. The number represents "EPS Growth (Last 5 Years)".
    AAPL is no slouch, but everything is relative. Quite a period indeed.
    AAPL: 7.31%
    PG: 10.14%
    JPM: 15.17%
    UNH: 20.25%
    VZ: 13.95%
    DIS: 8.04%
    PFE: 15.27%
    CMCSA: 12.08%
    and the subject of this thread, BRK.A tops this collection at 32.74%.
    (I post this as much to check my previous post as to make the figures concrete. It's always possible I could have made a mistake.)
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    I wouldn't compare BRK.A to anything else.
    I don't see any reason to own BRK.A
    SPY beat it easily for 1-3-5-10 years and with lower voltility.
    Okay.
    Apple P/E = 35.6 (link)
    You must have a reason in mind, some point you're trying to make, by presenting this figure in isolation. Whatever it is, the point isn't clear.
    If it is to show that AAPL's P/E on Nov 25 is higher than the 33.19 P/E it had on Oct 30th, well, sure. It goes without saying that over a short period when the earnings denominator (a quarterly datum) doesn't change, P/E will move in proportion to price movements. And this month, most stock prices have been going up, so most P/E's have been going up. Nothing special here.
    If the point is to hint that AAPL's P/E is high, whatever "high" means, context matters. Certainly 35+ is high relative to historical stock market averages. But relative to the current (Nov. 25) TTM S&P 500 P/E of 41.34, it is low. Not bargain basement low, but notably lower than the typical large cap stock.
    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
    https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/AAPL
    Apple earning are so huge and why it has so much cash and it's harder to show growth but it still shows it
    Certainly Apple's earnings are growing year by year. Though based on 5 year EPS growth rates, it is growing more slowly than not only the other top 10 stocks in VUG (your choice of growth index), but more slowly than eight of the top 10 stocks in VTV, including BRK.A (okay, you don't like that one), Procter & Gamble (PG), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Verizon (VZ), Disney (DIS), Pfizer (PFE), and Comcast (CMCSA).
    Moderate, steady growth. Some people call that a blue chip. You choose to call it growth. Whatever.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    An army of political hatchetmen qualified in nothing other than a nihilistic agenda of Trumpism brought four years of chaos and administrative subversion.
    I prefer "hacks" who are well-qualified administrators with experience in their jobs.
    A preference for the wealth of the Dow over the health of the United States is, unfortunately, not unique to wxman123. There are plenty more just like him out there.
  • A Housing Boom During A Pandemic
    RE(real estate) is crazy right now but just like any other ones will get back to earth in 1 (maybe 2 years). Rates may go higher, RE prices already moved a lot, many people have saved more during 2020, the pandemic will be over and most things will get more normal. It will definitely not last 10 years.
  • Revisiting an old question -- What's Up with Templeton Global Bond
    Mr. Hasenstab was a star bond fund manager several years ago.
    The long-term returns for TPINX and GIM were exceptional.
    Here are some quotes extracted from Karin Anderson's GIM analysis for Morningstar:
    12-18-2014
    "From Michael Hasenstab's start in December 2001 through Nov. 30, 2014, the fund's 11% annualized gain ranked ahead of all world-bond options."
    11-16-2015
    "Over the past decade through October 2015, the fund's 9% annualized gain bested all world-bond and emerging-markets bond closed-end funds and beat out all world-bond open-end funds as well."
    I purchased GIM during December 2013 when it was selling at an attractive discount to NAV.
    Unfortunately, the discount widened during my holding period of almost 5 years!
    Mr. Hasenstab is a contrarian investor and the fund's holdings were distinctive.
    He had long-standing short positions against the euro and the yen.
    At the same time, exposure to emerging market currencies was significant.
    Although GIM was categorized as a world bond fund, Mr. Hasenstab emphasized emerging market bonds instead of bonds from developed markets.
    He purchased debt from Ukraine, Hungary, Ireland, and Argentina which other investors shunned.
    GIM maintained a short duration since Mr. Hasenstab was concerned about inflation.
    I haven't paid close attention to GIM/TPINX for over two years.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    No spin - you chose to use CRSP indexes as your authority, I just looked at what those classifications represented.
    Would you say that BRK.A is, or has been a growth stock over the past several years? I ask because based on the metrics you gave it looks like it's been a much more growthy stock than AAPL. It had a higher P/E ratio over that time frame (21.17 average vs. 17.58 average) and a lower yield (it doesn't pay any divs). (Data from key statistics page for each security at Fidelity's site.)
    "Higher growth" of what? Here's what Fidelity gives as growth metrics:
    EPS growth:
    - Last quarter EPS vs. corresponding 2019 quarter: 87.56% vs. -3.63% (BRK.A vs AAPL)
    - TTM vs prior TTM: 36.85% vs. 10.04%
    - Last 5 years: 32.74% vs. 7.31%
    - Projected EPS growth (next year vs. this year): 16.86% vs. 9.37%
    Revenue growth (Lewis also gave some of these figures):
    - Last quarter vs. corresponding 2019 quarter: 24.65% vs. 1.03%
    - TTM vs. prior TTM: 7.90% vs. 5.51%
    - Last five years: 10.94% vs. 3.27%
    Book value per share growth (last five years): 12.08% vs. -11.35%
    Cash flow growth rate (last five years): 27.41% vs. 1.39%
    Am I suggesting that BRK.A has been a growth stock over the past five years? Hardly. Despite the fact that based on the metrics above it "looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck." Rather I'm suggesting that identifying ducks isn't duck soup.
    According to S&P, "the market" (well, 90% of it) had an average TTM P/E of 34.2 at the end of October.
    One can calculate AAPL's TTM P/E on Oct 30th by dividing its price/share on that date by its TTM earnings/share, as is done here. Per Yahoo, the closing price was $108.86. Per Fidelity's earnings page for AAPL, the TTM adjusted actual EPS (as of Sept 30th) was $3.28. That makes the Oct 30th P/E ratio 33.19 or just about one less than "the market" average. A value stock?
  • A Housing Boom During A Pandemic
    Why Housing Could be the Best Asset Class for the Next Decade:
    There is a real possibility real estate could be one of the dominant assets of the 2020s. Here are some reasons why:
    Millennials. Young people are settling down later in life because they are going to school for longer, had to deal with a housing bust, and graduated in and around the Great Financial Crisis. But millennials were going to begin doing adult things eventually.
    That means buying houses, even if it comes later in life than it did for their parents. Millennials are now the biggest demographic in the country and will dominate the most common ages in the country for years to come:
    why-housing-could-be-one-of-the-best-performing-asset-classes-of-the-2020s
  • Are Small Caps Breaking Out? IWM
    According to Jon Krinsky at Baycrest, 83% of the Russell 3k names got back above their 200-day moving averages last week, a record going back seven years to 2013. It wasn’t bearish then and it’s not likely to be bearish now.
    small-caps-break-out-of-two-year-consolidation
    image
  • Time to buy, sell, or hang tight
    "“This is a great example of how aggregate numbers can hide important facts,” Colas writes."
    Nope, we have seen it several times before. Stock short term moves (months and sometimes even years) don't have a high correlation to..............PE, PE10, valuation, inverted yield, inflation, recession, the economy, all sort of Predictions and even earnings.
    But the 24/7 media will keep churning it in hope you click and read and how they get paid ;-)
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    Yes, you're right about the last ten years. But Charley would argue that this doesn't necessarily mean that any of them will outperform the benchmark over the next ten years. Disagree with him at your own peril.
    Respectfully submitted.
  • VANGUARD
    Nope... I've had the exact setup for years.. something changed at VG. I'm fine now, I just changed to two factor like they've been pushing.
  • Fund Share Inventory...Is Every Share Owned at All Times?
    Stock companies specify the number of shares they are authorized to issue. This can be increased by the shareholders. A company is not required to issue all shares authorized.
    When shares are issued they are sold; for a public company this is generally done through public offerings. A company can buy back some of its shares. It then holds these shares, which are called treasury shares. This is not an inventory of unsold shares - the shares were issued, sold to buyers who subsequently sold those shares to the company acting as a buyer. They are no more unsold than shares that you bought and have not resold.
    https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/the-difference-between-authorized-and-outstanding-shares.html
    I'm not sure whether all ETFs have limits on authorized shares (it could depend on their legal structure, e.g. UIT or OEF), I don't know. But at least some ETFs have limits, because several years ago one of them forgot to increase its authorized amount and for a few days couldn't issue more shares. That resulted in a large tracking error.
    OEFs simply create more shares willy-nilly as needed. CEFs operate like stock companies.
    The main difference between an open-end company and a closed-end company is how the shares are purchased and sold. An open-end company offer new shares to any investor who wants to invest. This is known as a continuous primary offering. Because the offering of new shares is continuous, the capitalization of the open-end fund is unlimited. Stated another way, an open-end fund may raise as much money as investors are willing to put in. An open-end fund must repurchase its own shares from investors who want to redeem them. A closed-end fund offers common shares to investors through an initial public offering (IPO) just like a stock. Its capitalization is limited to hte number of authorized shares that have been approved for sale. Shares of the closed-end fund will trade in the secondary market in investor-to-investor transactions on an exchange or in the over-the-counter market (OTC), just like common shares.
    https://securitiesce.com/series-6/understand-mutual-funds/
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    image
    As an example, it looks like VT has under performed VHGEX, MGGPX and PRGSX over the last 10 years.
  • Revisiting an old question -- What's Up with Templeton Global Bond
    TPINX is a complicated play on currency, credit and duration. ISTR that it performs better with a weakening dollar. I sold my Hasenstab Templeton funds several years ago, and would go back in only if an Hasenstab etf was available !
  • TRP news release. What does all of this MEAN? Dated 19 Nov 2020
    It’s a fascinating bit of news. I haven’t a clue. I know from my Oppenheimer years that some of their mutual funds were managed by “subsidiaries” - often in the Cayman Islands. A fee was paid by the fund to the subsidiary for managing the fund. I always assumed this created perhaps some kind of firewall to limit Oppenheimer’s liability, along with cost benefits. What TRP is doing sounds different.
    TRP hasn’t stumbled much in the past, so I’ll ascede to their having good intentions. While size has benefits of scale, they may be sensing that management of such a large organization is becoming a bit unwieldy, The bigger the organization the easier it is for laggards to take cover and avoid being weeded out.
    Worst case (which I don’t expect) would be inability to effect simple exchanges between funds in the two groups. Geez - with separate accounts at 4 houses now and separate Roths and Traditional IRAs at TRP, I’ve had tons of practice shifting money around. Lots of work-arounds. Having a stash of cash at each designee is quite helpful, as is having similarity oriented funds at 2 fiduciaries - to a limited degree.
    I haven’t called. Not too concerned. It would be nice however if they could explain it in simple terms in a Bloomberg interview or something akin to that. As far as PRWCX goes, without checking, it has to be one of their largest funds in terms of AUM. Makes perfect sense to move it to the new management complex. I did read that Giroux will also be bumped up to the senior management ranks there as part of the reorganization.
  • Asset Performance 1985-2020
    Assets Performance Year over Year...anyone have next years results so I can invest in them early?
    image
  • VANGUARD
    Locked out again today. Something is going on at Vanguard. System upgrades or something is messing things up as I haven't had this issue for months/years. Now in a 30 minute call back queue. 30 minutes!! This sucks for 2 reasons, it's long AND I normally block any callers not in my contacts which I now have to turn off. I feel grumpy old man syndrome kicking in. :^) ;^)
  • IOFIX Versus James Alpha Structured Credit
    Looks like JASSX is available at FIDO with $2500 min, but a $49.95 fee. JASVX is available NTF at ETRADE, $250 min.
    The time to pick the low hanging fruit was 8 months ago (says Captain Hindsight). So do you still buy/add to these higher risk funds now, after the big bounce?
    Will any of this matter 10 years from now? Probably not. In the short term, anyone who's been paying attention already bought in March. You want more? Sure, buy more.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Warren is smart because
    1) He finally invested in a growth, "over valued" for his style high tech company, Apple, after he said for years he woudn't and now it is his biggest holding.
    2) SPY/VOO is an easy, dirt cheap index
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    @FD1000 Which cash back credit card allows you pay property taxes with no fee?
    Fidelity 2% cash back. The fee is decided by the county/city not the credit card. This year was the first time I was able to pay the county by credit card with zero fees.
    The city one is years already.
    From memory, in previous years the county was charging more than 2% and why I didn't do it.